Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result
Discussion
powerstroke said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
sanf said:
The timescale is one the most challenging aspects of the whole process - bearing in mind all EU countries have to approve the deal. Listening to a short key note speech by Andrew Neil last week, his take was;
If you think getting the UK government to agree a negotiating position is tough, just wait to see how much harder it will be for the EU to agree a strategy, let alone a deal.
Does make you wonder if the focus will be on other countries not the EU, as trying to agree a mutually acceptable deal in 2 years may be almost impossible. Although that could be risky for either side....
The longer it take the more it suits the EU in my opinion.If you think getting the UK government to agree a negotiating position is tough, just wait to see how much harder it will be for the EU to agree a strategy, let alone a deal.
Does make you wonder if the focus will be on other countries not the EU, as trying to agree a mutually acceptable deal in 2 years may be almost impossible. Although that could be risky for either side....
We are excluded from any decision making.
They keep getting our £10BN per year contribution.
Multi-nationals wishing to manufacture in the EU are more likely to exclude UK as a base.
The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
sanf said:
The timescale is one the most challenging aspects of the whole process - bearing in mind all EU countries have to approve the deal. Listening to a short key note speech by Andrew Neil last week, his take was;
If we plan to go for the more "detached" "a bit like Canada" option then even when you consider that (a) we obviously comply with all EU rules now which Canada does not and (b) current agreements are a starting point getting it done and up and running in 2 years is, understatement time, a challenge.If we do go that route I can see us basically having to offer to dump a load of cash into the EU budget each year for some sort of "holding" temporary agreement until a new one is ratified.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Since when does not voting mean you are not entitled to an opinion or to challenge those that did?
Why must everyone be on one side or the other?
In a democracy an individual is as much entitled not to vote as they are to vote. There were 12,000,000 odd people that didn't vote in the referendum.
Yep, we'd be in heated agreement on that one. In a democracy you have every right to your own opinion, to vote or decline. I have no problem at all with your statement. Why must everyone be on one side or the other?
In a democracy an individual is as much entitled not to vote as they are to vote. There were 12,000,000 odd people that didn't vote in the referendum.
However should a person decide not to vote that person should not criticise the motives/actions/whatever of those that did, and neither should they call the result into question. They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
b2hbm said:
Yep, we'd be in heated agreement on that one. In a democracy you have every right to your own opinion, to vote or decline. I have no problem at all with your statement.
However should a person decide not to vote that person should not criticise the motives/actions/whatever of those that did, and neither should they call the result into question. They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
Got it.However should a person decide not to vote that person should not criticise the motives/actions/whatever of those that did, and neither should they call the result into question. They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
b2hbm said:
They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
The turnout was 72% to say that those who chose not to vote did not influence the outcome is wrong. If the 28% that did not vote decided to vote the result might have been different. In deciding not to vote their actions have the win to the leave campaign. If you voted leave I would be thanking those people who did not vote if I were you
///ajd said:
We can't just walk away from a market worth £300Bn, 500m people, 44% of our exports.
The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Whilst I agree with your last statement about India, you'll have to get much more realistic in your claims if you want to be taken seriously. The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Yep, the EU is a big market but it isn't 500m, don't we account for 65m of that number ? But the real crux of the matter isn't the number of people, it's how many of them have the desire and money for our exports. Within the EU we have France, Italy & Germany as big players, but the rest are on a sliding scale to small beer in comparison. So it's not even 435m with cash ready and willing to buy, is it ?
As you've noted they account for 44% of our exports, which I've said before is rather disappointing given that they currently claim to have a better trading position with us than the ROTW.
But even so, let's assume in 2019 we walk away with no deal whatsoever. Do you seriously claim that 100% of the goods and services we export to the EU will vanish overnight ? We will go from 44% to 0% on the stroke of midnight or even over the following 1,2 or whatever years ?
I don't think anyone would argue that the % is likely to drop, but by how much is pure guesswork at this stage. Someone claims 20%, another 10% and maybe I'll claim 2%. All equally valid claims at this stage and most likely to be wrong. But whatever the outcome it's extremely unlikely that we'll be looking to recover all 44% from the ROTW trading. More likely it'll be 5%, maybe 10%.
And the indications are that's quite possible to achieve with growing markets outside the EU.
b2hbm said:
Yep, we'd be in heated agreement on that one. In a democracy you have every right to your own opinion, to vote or decline. I have no problem at all with your statement.
However should a person decide not to vote that person should not criticise the motives/actions/whatever of those that did, and neither should they call the result into question. They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
I'm not sure that's what democracy is all about. Someone who did not vote has all the opportunities that are awarded to those who did. They are perfectly entitled to criticise those who voted out if they see problems for them from the result. However should a person decide not to vote that person should not criticise the motives/actions/whatever of those that did, and neither should they call the result into question. They had opportunity to influence and declined the option, but to do nothing and start complaining afterwards is strange.
For instance, they might not have voted because they were unaware of the cost implications of each route. They might have been concerned that they were being lied to. They, perhaps, did not want to vote on a whim. Perhaps they believed those who suggested that it wouldn't really make much difference.
If they then discover that those who did vote have cost them money then they have every right to moan.
I suggest what no one should demand that the vote should be followed because it is a form of democracy, and then deny similar access to the process to others they disagree with.
I will suggest that those who did vote leave who discover that brexit doesn't mean what they voted for have also got the right to complain.
b2hbm said:
///ajd said:
We can't just walk away from a market worth £300Bn, 500m people, 44% of our exports.
The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Whilst I agree with your last statement about India, you'll have to get much more realistic in your claims if you want to be taken seriously. The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Yep, the EU is a big market but it isn't 500m, don't we account for 65m of that number ? But the real crux of the matter isn't the number of people, it's how many of them have the desire and money for our exports. Within the EU we have France, Italy & Germany as big players, but the rest are on a sliding scale to small beer in comparison. So it's not even 435m with cash ready and willing to buy, is it ?
As you've noted they account for 44% of our exports, which I've said before is rather disappointing given that they currently claim to have a better trading position with us than the ROTW.
But even so, let's assume in 2019 we walk away with no deal whatsoever. Do you seriously claim that 100% of the goods and services we export to the EU will vanish overnight ? We will go from 44% to 0% on the stroke of midnight or even over the following 1,2 or whatever years ?
I don't think anyone would argue that the % is likely to drop, but by how much is pure guesswork at this stage. Someone claims 20%, another 10% and maybe I'll claim 2%. All equally valid claims at this stage and most likely to be wrong. But whatever the outcome it's extremely unlikely that we'll be looking to recover all 44% from the ROTW trading. More likely it'll be 5%, maybe 10%.
And the indications are that's quite possible to achieve with growing markets outside the EU.
b2hbm said:
Whilst I agree with your last statement about India, you'll have to get much more realistic in your claims if you want to be taken seriously.
Yep, the EU is a big market but it isn't 500m, don't we account for 65m of that number ? But the real crux of the matter isn't the number of people, it's how many of them have the desire and money for our exports. Within the EU we have France, Italy & Germany as big players, but the rest are on a sliding scale to small beer in comparison. So it's not even 435m with cash ready and willing to buy, is it ?
As you've noted they account for 44% of our exports, which I've said before is rather disappointing given that they currently claim to have a better trading position with us than the ROTW.
But even so, let's assume in 2019 we walk away with no deal whatsoever. Do you seriously claim that 100% of the goods and services we export to the EU will vanish overnight ? We will go from 44% to 0% on the stroke of midnight or even over the following 1,2 or whatever years ?
I don't think anyone would argue that the % is likely to drop, but by how much is pure guesswork at this stage. Someone claims 20%, another 10% and maybe I'll claim 2%. All equally valid claims at this stage and most likely to be wrong. But whatever the outcome it's extremely unlikely that we'll be looking to recover all 44% from the ROTW trading. More likely it'll be 5%, maybe 10%.
And the indications are that's quite possible to achieve with growing markets outside the EU.
These are just my opinions and they are backed by widely supported stats.Yep, the EU is a big market but it isn't 500m, don't we account for 65m of that number ? But the real crux of the matter isn't the number of people, it's how many of them have the desire and money for our exports. Within the EU we have France, Italy & Germany as big players, but the rest are on a sliding scale to small beer in comparison. So it's not even 435m with cash ready and willing to buy, is it ?
As you've noted they account for 44% of our exports, which I've said before is rather disappointing given that they currently claim to have a better trading position with us than the ROTW.
But even so, let's assume in 2019 we walk away with no deal whatsoever. Do you seriously claim that 100% of the goods and services we export to the EU will vanish overnight ? We will go from 44% to 0% on the stroke of midnight or even over the following 1,2 or whatever years ?
I don't think anyone would argue that the % is likely to drop, but by how much is pure guesswork at this stage. Someone claims 20%, another 10% and maybe I'll claim 2%. All equally valid claims at this stage and most likely to be wrong. But whatever the outcome it's extremely unlikely that we'll be looking to recover all 44% from the ROTW trading. More likely it'll be 5%, maybe 10%.
And the indications are that's quite possible to achieve with growing markets outside the EU.
44% is a huge proportion. There has been nonsense spouted about it dwindling, not growing etc. - this is just misleading guff from Hannan to play down its importance. You can see him now trying to cling onto the SM which is revealing in itself. Perhaps not so inconsequential as he made out.
Its true 65m of that 500m is us. So what? Also a large proportion of those are on good wages - the EU average is still €1500 including the poor countries - that's spending power. Like you say the bigger nations are all €2200+ which is even more potential disposable income. (I realise our exports are a mix of retail and service/industrial, so this is only one measure).
India may have many more people, but the average wage is $300. Not only is it not a replacement for our EU market - BUT the EU is ALREADY their biggest trade partner - and a big chunk of that is already the UK. AND they already have preferential trade arrangements under GSP. So what are these magic new deals that will unlock more of the Indian market to the UK and make us all rich? Its smoke and mirrors bullsh*t I'm afaid.
I agree we won't lose the 44% - of course not, who said that? But if there is a trade spat with the EU where customs and tariffs are in the air, there could be a sizable dent. With the numbers in mind even 5% would be a HUGE amount that would be felt hard, and hit our GDP. The impact would be way higher than our EU contribution costs - I point made often but denied or not understood I suspect by many doubters.
It's true we might slightly improve trade with India if we accelerate the current EU-India trade deal on our own terms. But what are the numbers? We are already a good % of India world trade - how much can it grow beyond what it would have done whilst we were in the EU anyway?
Ajd, I said I agreed with you on your statement about India. I didn't say anything about India being the source of our new found wealth after 2019, I said ROTW (Rest of the World)
Personally I doubt we'll increase trade that much with India because as you say, we already do a decent amount (which incidentally counts towards those EU numbers). But it seems perfectly reasonable that we'll increase trade with the ROTW, it's a much bigger pie to go at than the EU.
Personally I doubt we'll increase trade that much with India because as you say, we already do a decent amount (which incidentally counts towards those EU numbers). But it seems perfectly reasonable that we'll increase trade with the ROTW, it's a much bigger pie to go at than the EU.
bmw535i said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Got it.
I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Why didn't you vote?I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Too funny! So this guy has been whining and crying in this thread for the past 3 months about how Brexit won and what a tragedy it is, yet now comes out with this gem that he never even bothered to get up off his fat arse and vote! paulrockliffe said:
b2hbm said:
///ajd said:
We can't just walk away from a market worth £300Bn, 500m people, 44% of our exports.
The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Whilst I agree with your last statement about India, you'll have to get much more realistic in your claims if you want to be taken seriously. The other markets like Aus and India will not even start to make up any hit here - and in any case THEY already have massive trade stats with - guess who - the EU.
Talking about deals with with India is important just to not go backwards from the GSP arrangements we have with them in the EU.
Yep, the EU is a big market but it isn't 500m, don't we account for 65m of that number ? But the real crux of the matter isn't the number of people, it's how many of them have the desire and money for our exports. Within the EU we have France, Italy & Germany as big players, but the rest are on a sliding scale to small beer in comparison. So it's not even 435m with cash ready and willing to buy, is it ?
As you've noted they account for 44% of our exports, which I've said before is rather disappointing given that they currently claim to have a better trading position with us than the ROTW.
But even so, let's assume in 2019 we walk away with no deal whatsoever. Do you seriously claim that 100% of the goods and services we export to the EU will vanish overnight ? We will go from 44% to 0% on the stroke of midnight or even over the following 1,2 or whatever years ?
I don't think anyone would argue that the % is likely to drop, but by how much is pure guesswork at this stage. Someone claims 20%, another 10% and maybe I'll claim 2%. All equally valid claims at this stage and most likely to be wrong. But whatever the outcome it's extremely unlikely that we'll be looking to recover all 44% from the ROTW trading. More likely it'll be 5%, maybe 10%.
And the indications are that's quite possible to achieve with growing markets outside the EU.
All that jazz said:
Too funny! So this guy has been whining and crying in this thread for the past 3 months about how Brexit won and what a tragedy it is, yet now comes out with this gem that he never even bothered to get up off his fat arse and vote! I have not whined, I have certainly not cried as as far as I can recall I have not referred to leaving as a tragedy.
PurpleMoonlight said:
All that jazz said:
Too funny! So this guy has been whining and crying in this thread for the past 3 months about how Brexit won and what a tragedy it is, yet now comes out with this gem that he never even bothered to get up off his fat arse and vote! I have not whined, I have certainly not cried as as far as I can recall I have not referred to leaving as a tragedy.
All that jazz said:
bmw535i said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Got it.
I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Why didn't you vote?I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Too funny! So this guy has been whining and crying in this thread for the past 3 months about how Brexit won and what a tragedy it is, yet now comes out with this gem that he never even bothered to get up off his fat arse and vote! Stickyfinger said:
el stovey said:
Why does voting or not voting have anything to do with someone's right to discuss or "whine and cry" about the result?
You live a sheltered life.There are some people on this thread who are clearly a bit thick but have voted and spout a load of misinformed rubbish. Is their view on the referendum somehow more valuable than someone with a bit of insight and intelligence who decided not to vote?
Edited by el stovey on Saturday 24th September 11:38
el stovey said:
All that jazz said:
bmw535i said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Got it.
I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Why didn't you vote?I can have an opinion but must keep it to myself because I didn't vote.
Do you understand the meaning of censorship?
Too funny! So this guy has been whining and crying in this thread for the past 3 months about how Brexit won and what a tragedy it is, yet now comes out with this gem that he never even bothered to get up off his fat arse and vote! 
king common sense as b2hbm explained above. Clearly the issue didn't bother you enough to make a stand and vote to remain so why all the crying and arguing now? What has changed? Nothing. You didn't care before so there's no reason for you to care now. If you did care then you'd have voted. You had your chance and didn't vote so quit your whining and get on with life. Nothing unfair or unreasonable about it.That's not directed at you specifically but anyone who didn't vote that's now crying about the result.
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