Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[PurpleMoonlight]

b2hbm said:

Whilst the EU would like our subscriptions, they don't want a member who may well obstruct or delay further integration to leverage negotiations and will certainly be a bad example for other potentially disruptive members; Hungary for example, other countries are available.

We are already being sidelined and we haven't even resigned yet, but I think we are officially excluded from participation in ongoing decisions once we do.

[Stickyfinger]

PurpleMoonlight said:

We are already being sidelined and we haven't even resigned yet, but I think we are officially excluded from participation in ongoing decisions once we do.

Don't give a fk, let them get on with their EU Army and full political integration (formation of bureaucratic dictatorship), they are most welcome to it.

[b2hbm]

PurpleMoonlight said:

We are already being sidelined and we haven't even resigned yet, but I think we are officially excluded from participation in ongoing decisions once we do.

Yep, and I think following the vote the sidelining was inevitable. I don't blame the EU, I'd do the same in their shoes.

However my understanding was that if you pay your subs, you get a vote. The Bratislava conference wasn't an official EU meeting in the sense that actions would be authorised. Proposed yes, but they still need a vote to pursue them with EU budgets, etc. The call for the EU Army (or whatever you want to call it) was significant in that the papers I read called for a voluntary move with France and Germany sponsoring the outset, hence no vote needed (yet)

There were recent reports on Reuters about how the UK might veto the move in defence of NATO and how the EU nations were hoping we'd just abstain or sit quietly by as they nod it through. It would seem (from Reuters at least) that the UK could still upset the applecart for them. Personally I think that's petty, and we should let them go ahead.

I'm happy to be corrected on that, I don't know for a fact that we get a vote on matters which affect our country between 2017-2019.

[PurpleMoonlight]

b2hbm said:

However my understanding was that if you pay your subs, you get a vote.

BBC claims not.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

"EU law still stands in the UK until it ceases being a member. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws, but not take part in any decision-making."


This too.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty...

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Sunday 25th September 08:08

[Stickyfinger]

EU Army, only the French. German Army = fk all left, Italian ? nuff said, who else has one ?

EU Defence Force ? oh dear oh dear, it is however a way of loosing large numbers of French voters.

Say hello to Marie Le-Pen in a few years

[anonymous-user]

I wonder how many of this lot never bothered voting

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/n...

[voyds9]

b2hbm said:

I suspect we will compromise on immigration but it will be in the form of Free movement of LABOUR as against FMO CITIZENS. The EU will claim victory. The UK will claim victory because you won't be allowed in unless you have a job to go to. There may be other dis-incentives attached, maybe in terms of benefits to dissuade immigration to minimum wage jobs which may currently be topped up with benefits. Immigration of highly educated people will not be affected.

The UK will claim that only people who work and contribute can come in, they are therefore essential to the economy and the principle of the referendum is satisfied. Some will be upset. I'm in an area significantly affected by immigration but I'd live with that. Even Farage will live with that.

The City will continue. If Germany or France were able to take the over the business that the City does, they would already have done it. Despite what some think, they don't say "we'll let the UK have all that money because we like them" the fact is, we're good at it. That may change, but it won't be the referendum that causes it.

As a Leaver I would be happy with this. I thought the EEC was a good idea, EU far less so.

[b2hbm]

PurpleMoonlight said:

(clipped quote)

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty...

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Sunday 25th September 08:08

Pretty definitive I'd say, we pay subs but no vote. No arguments on that, I stand corrected.

In which case I can't imagine the UK continuing to extend the negotiation into 2020, the public won't stand for membership payment with no voting rights. UKIP would have a field day and Farage would be in meltdown. Presumably the Reuters article I saw was in reference to something that's going to happen later this year, before A50 is triggered.

[PurpleMoonlight]

b2hbm said:

Pretty definitive I'd say, we pay subs but no vote. No arguments on that, I stand corrected.

In which case I can't imagine the UK continuing to extend the negotiation into 2020, the public won't stand for membership payment with no voting rights. UKIP would have a field day and Farage would be in meltdown.

Agreed, it's not the best situation for us to be in.

I think we need a very good poker player in charge of our negotiations.

[WinstonWolf]

PurpleMoonlight said:

bmw535i said:

Because we got what we wanted - to leave the EU. That's what we voted for and that's what we'll get.

Yes you did and will, but why won't you discuss the consequences of that?

Is it simply that the end justifies the means regardless of what those means turn out to be?

What were the consequences of remaining?

[///ajd]

b2hbm said:

I really do wish you'd pack in this "Leavers avoid the consequences of their action" stance because it clearly isn't true. Some do, some don't. This would be a very boring thread if the Leave voters just kept posting "Remainers avoid explaining why I'm not £4300 poorer"

However, you asked for a Leave timetable. Grab a coffee, this is going to take a while.

Now that's an impossible question to answer as TM hasn't asked for my advice yet, but no doubt she'll check in with me before she pulls the trigger. I'll let you know when she does but in the meantime this is a pure guess from one Leave voter....

A50 actioned between Jan & March 2017. I suspect mid/end Feb, I'll be surprised if it happens in the first 2 weeks of the year although it might well do so. I doubt it will be later than April.

There will be no detailed plan, so don't ask for one. In a negotiation you keep your aims to yourself, only a fool starts negotiating at their bottom line. There will be vague outlines given to the public and these will be debated by experts on PH for the next two years. It could be a thread longer than "is the end nigh for the Euro" which is currently on Vol 3.

Discussions start April 2017, maybe earlier. Nothing serious happens. People on both sides strut about, play to the press and sound important. The media love it. PH goes into meltdown.

2018. Germany and France have sorted themselves out. The Eurozone has either sunk further into depression or against all current predictions, started to soar. This is what will influence the serious discussions; if the EU is recovering they play hardball, if they are stagnant, they compromise. But the main thing is that both parties now realise the exams are just round the corner and they need to get some revision in.

2019. Several options appear. The EU can't agree on any. Discussions carry on through the night. It is all tremendously difficult. More soundbites and the media love it even more. The deadline passes. Talking still continues with half the delegates snoring at the table. The most important decision for both parties will be taken with half of them sleep deprived.

At that point I freely admit I don't know what the results will be, your guess is as good as mine.

I suspect we will compromise on immigration but it will be in the form of Free movement of LABOUR as against FMO CITIZENS. The EU will claim victory. The UK will claim victory because you won't be allowed in unless you have a job to go to. There may be other dis-incentives attached, maybe in terms of benefits to dissuade immigration to minimum wage jobs which may currently be topped up with benefits. Immigration of highly educated people will not be affected.

The UK will claim that only people who work and contribute can come in, they are therefore essential to the economy and the principle of the referendum is satisfied. Some will be upset. I'm in an area significantly affected by immigration but I'd live with that. Even Farage will live with that.

The City will continue. If Germany or France were able to take the over the business that the City does, they would already have done it. Despite what some think, they don't say "we'll let the UK have all that money because we like them" the fact is, we're good at it. That may change, but it won't be the referendum that causes it.

Trade will continue. We may lose a few % of EU exports, I honestly don't know. But the EU is not the prosperous place it was 40 years ago and the indicators aren't going upwards. That alone would reduce our trade there even if we remained members.

The UK will prosper and continue to attract investment. If we want to do deals like Ireland did with Apple, we can do so without the EU sending us fines. We can do whatever we want, whatever it takes to make the UK progress without having to ask permission of 27 other countries.

Honestly mate, it's time to have a bit more faith in your countrymen. (and women)

Edited by b2hbm on Sunday 25th September 07:14

I may not agree with it all but thats a good contribution. Thanks.

[PurpleMoonlight]

WinstonWolf said:

What were the consequences of remaining?

I see what you did there! But I'll happily answer.

Pretty much what we have now.

I didn't find it that bad an existence but clearly 17M did and wanted something different.

[steveT350C]

Liam Fox to make a major speech to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Tuesday..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/liam-fo...

[John145]

PurpleMoonlight said:

WinstonWolf said:

What were the consequences of remaining?

Pretty much what we have now.

Incorrect answer.

[PurpleMoonlight]

John145 said:

Incorrect answer.

And 17M agree with you.

[don'tbesilly]

The 57% rise in race hate crime post referendum debunked:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3805008/Th...

It will have some frothing at the mouth and apoplectic with rage.

[///ajd]

steveT350C said:

Liam Fox to make a major speech to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Tuesday..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/liam-fo...

Well at least he's giving some direction to those US banks who said they'd leave without clarity......then again I suspect they wanted some certainty we retain some of the bits he might be implying we are giving up.

[Derek Smith]

b2hbm said:

For the UK, if we haven't a clear exit by the 2020 election, TM will be toast. The voting pattern in terms of constituencies was overwhelming in favour of Leave and significantly in Tory heartlands. Boundary changes may weaken Labour but there would be a resurgence of UKIP to spoil the plot and a weakened government or another coalition would truly spell disaster. Even I don't want that. So the UK will leave before 2020 if only protect the Tory jobs.

I think the election will be before we exit. The pattern of those who voted leave is immaterial as the party will still be 'on course'. I think the timing will be critical for May. If we leave beforehand then the vote will be seen as a vote on the result of the negotiations. Too late of course, but when did that ever bother anyone.

May will have to satisfy those who fund the party, the CBI, the news media, international business, MPs, Scotland, Ireland and Gibraltar, amongst others and lastly, and leastly, the voters.

But, of course, this is politics and any suggestion as to outcome has to be wreathed in conditions.

I hope May is still in charge in 2025 'cause that will mean the option negotiated has, at the very least, not harmed the UK.

[anonymous-user]

b2hbm said:

I really do wish you'd pack in this "Leavers avoid the consequences of their action" stance because it clearly isn't true. Some do, some don't. This would be a very boring thread if the Leave voters just kept posting "Remainers avoid explaining why I'm not £4300 poorer"

However, you asked for a Leave timetable. Grab a coffee, this is going to take a while.

Now that's an impossible question to answer as TM hasn't asked for my advice yet, but no doubt she'll check in with me before she pulls the trigger. I'll let you know when she does but in the meantime this is a pure guess from one Leave voter....

A50 actioned between Jan & March 2017. I suspect mid/end Feb, I'll be surprised if it happens in the first 2 weeks of the year although it might well do so. I doubt it will be later than April.

There will be no detailed plan, so don't ask for one. In a negotiation you keep your aims to yourself, only a fool starts negotiating at their bottom line. There will be vague outlines given to the public and these will be debated by experts on PH for the next two years. It could be a thread longer than "is the end nigh for the Euro" which is currently on Vol 3.

Discussions start April 2017, maybe earlier. Nothing serious happens. People on both sides strut about, play to the press and sound important. The media love it. PH goes into meltdown.

2018. Germany and France have sorted themselves out. The Eurozone has either sunk further into depression or against all current predictions, started to soar. This is what will influence the serious discussions; if the EU is recovering they play hardball, if they are stagnant, they compromise. But the main thing is that both parties now realise the exams are just round the corner and they need to get some revision in.

2019. Several options appear. The EU can't agree on any. Discussions carry on through the night. It is all tremendously difficult. More soundbites and the media love it even more. The deadline passes. Talking still continues with half the delegates snoring at the table. The most important decision for both parties will be taken with half of them sleep deprived.

At that point I freely admit I don't know what the results will be, your guess is as good as mine.

I suspect we will compromise on immigration but it will be in the form of Free movement of LABOUR as against FMO CITIZENS. The EU will claim victory. The UK will claim victory because you won't be allowed in unless you have a job to go to. There may be other dis-incentives attached, maybe in terms of benefits to dissuade immigration to minimum wage jobs which may currently be topped up with benefits. Immigration of highly educated people will not be affected.

The UK will claim that only people who work and contribute can come in, they are therefore essential to the economy and the principle of the referendum is satisfied. Some will be upset. I'm in an area significantly affected by immigration but I'd live with that. Even Farage will live with that.

The City will continue. If Germany or France were able to take the over the business that the City does, they would already have done it. Despite what some think, they don't say "we'll let the UK have all that money because we like them" the fact is, we're good at it. That may change, but it won't be the referendum that causes it.

Trade will continue. We may lose a few % of EU exports, I honestly don't know. But the EU is not the prosperous place it was 40 years ago and the indicators aren't going upwards. That alone would reduce our trade there even if we remained members.

The UK will prosper and continue to attract investment. If we want to do deals like Ireland did with Apple, we can do so without the EU sending us fines. We can do whatever we want, whatever it takes to make the UK progress without having to ask permission of 27 other countries.

Honestly mate, it's time to have a bit more faith in your countrymen. (and women)

This is a thoughtful and considered post, and I see much sense in an awful lot of it. The para in bold is where I have reservations though.

"We're good at it" begs the question: who is "we"? "We" in this context means the City labour force, which is partly indigenous, partly imported and (more or less) wholly motivated by money. If City employers are uncertain about whether negotiations will ultimately leave their London bases unable to access the European market on terms they find acceptable, they won't wait until the end of negotiations to make their contingency plans. They will make them now, shifting offices and workers to mainland Europe.

Paris and Frankfurt will naturally do all they can to ease and encourage this movement - you would, wouldn't you? And if the concerns of City employers ultimately turn out to have been baseless, the fact remains that toothpaste will be out of the tube and won't be put back in it.

For my part, if that is how things pan out, the referendum will have been the sole and direct cause.

Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 25th September 13:41

[craigjm]

Greg66 said:

I suspect we will compromise on immigration but it will be in the form of Free movement of LABOUR as against FMO CITIZENS.

How does that differ from the current freedom of movement defined in article 45 of the treaty of the functioning of the EU?