Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[FiF]

SilverSixer said:

The trouble is, I can't see the EU being happy with and agreeing such an outcome for fear of other countries taking leave of their senses and trying the same gambit. It's not going to happen. We're going hard, or going home.

It's a shame, but that's one of the reasons why I voted remain - I couldn't see the UK ending up in a position more beneficial to it then EU membership. EU membership is a great deal - and I think people on the leave side forgot that it is just that, a deal, whereby there is some measure of give and take for a mutually beneficial outcome. I hope I'm wrong but I can't see it playing out well for us now if we do leave.

I'd accept the EEA/EFTA option now, it would be an acceptable compromise inside the UK I think, given that we are pretty much split down the middle we do have to find some kind of resolution with ourselves, but I can't see it happening.

It's a shame the referendum was run at all, but as we had one it's a shame it wasn't one with 4 options and rounds of voting, with an option being eliminated each round until, say, a 60% win was achieved for a final option to go for. i.e. hard remain, soft 'remain' (Cameron deal), EEA/EFTA exit, hard exit.

However, if the next say we get on things is the GE 2020, I'll be voting LibDem, unless Labour have a European epiphany and change their tune from one of simply going along with the right.

Obviously we are going to have to disagree over some things, but picking up on a couple of specifics.


" I couldn't see the UK ending up in a position more beneficial to it then EU membership. EU membership is a great deal - and I think people on the leave side forgot that it is just that, a deal, whereby there is some measure of give and take for a mutually beneficial outcome."

The EU deal as it is, nor Cameron's supposed deal, are/were not great deals. There is a lot of take on the side of the EU and a lot of give from a very small minority of nations. The EU have made it clear, no more amendments, no more discussion, their way or the highway. What I'm proposing is exactly that, mutually beneficial give and take, friendly cooperation, with some financial support, removal of a thorn in the EU side, they can go their own way without this picky unwilling member of a club on the sidelines. We are free (ish) to do what we want, within the boundaries of it's a big wide world of global regulation and supra national organisations, and they, the EU, are free to go their own way, within the same global constraints.

"I'd accept the EEA/EFTA option now, it would be an acceptable compromise inside the UK I think, "

Agreed it would, where we differ is that I think it would also be an acceptable compromise to the EU, both sides get stability, can spin the message to their own sides as they see fit. The problem children are the posturing hardliners at both ends of the spectrum.

For sure the EEA / EFTA option needs some tinkering around the details but whilst you have idiots at each end going for hardline exit vs hardline figure out a way to ignore the result, or punish the other side they are spoiling an adult discussion. At which point people, and I'll include myself here, think "Oh really just -rude words- you total -more rude words-." and either switch off or ignore the input from whoever, which may mean missing somewhere a worthwhile point for consideration. That's not, please note, picking one side over the other as there are people on both sides that I just ignore, not just on here either.

[SilverSixer]

FiF said:

SilverSixer said:

The trouble is, I can't see the EU being happy with and agreeing such an outcome for fear of other countries taking leave of their senses and trying the same gambit. It's not going to happen. We're going hard, or going home.

It's a shame, but that's one of the reasons why I voted remain - I couldn't see the UK ending up in a position more beneficial to it then EU membership. EU membership is a great deal - and I think people on the leave side forgot that it is just that, a deal, whereby there is some measure of give and take for a mutually beneficial outcome. I hope I'm wrong but I can't see it playing out well for us now if we do leave.

I'd accept the EEA/EFTA option now, it would be an acceptable compromise inside the UK I think, given that we are pretty much split down the middle we do have to find some kind of resolution with ourselves, but I can't see it happening.

It's a shame the referendum was run at all, but as we had one it's a shame it wasn't one with 4 options and rounds of voting, with an option being eliminated each round until, say, a 60% win was achieved for a final option to go for. i.e. hard remain, soft 'remain' (Cameron deal), EEA/EFTA exit, hard exit.

However, if the next say we get on things is the GE 2020, I'll be voting LibDem, unless Labour have a European epiphany and change their tune from one of simply going along with the right.

Obviously we are going to have to disagree over some things, but picking up on a couple of specifics.


" I couldn't see the UK ending up in a position more beneficial to it then EU membership. EU membership is a great deal - and I think people on the leave side forgot that it is just that, a deal, whereby there is some measure of give and take for a mutually beneficial outcome."

The EU deal as it is, nor Cameron's supposed deal, are/were not great deals. There is a lot of take on the side of the EU and a lot of give from a very small minority of nations. The EU have made it clear, no more amendments, no more discussion, their way or the highway. What I'm proposing is exactly that, mutually beneficial give and take, friendly cooperation, with some financial support, removal of a thorn in the EU side, they can go their own way without this picky unwilling member of a club on the sidelines. We are free (ish) to do what we want, within the boundaries of it's a big wide world of global regulation and supra national organisations, and they, the EU, are free to go their own way, within the same global constraints.

"I'd accept the EEA/EFTA option now, it would be an acceptable compromise inside the UK I think, "

Agreed it would, where we differ is that I think it would also be an acceptable compromise to the EU, both sides get stability, can spin the message to their own sides as they see fit. The problem children are the posturing hardliners at both ends of the spectrum.

For sure the EEA / EFTA option needs some tinkering around the details but whilst you have idiots at each end going for hardline exit vs hardline figure out a way to ignore the result, or punish the other side they are spoiling an adult discussion. At which point people, and I'll include myself here, think "Oh really just -rude words- you total -more rude words-." and either switch off or ignore the input from whoever, which may mean missing somewhere a worthwhile point for consideration. That's not, please note, picking one side over the other as there are people on both sides that I just ignore, not just on here either.

Ironically it seems you've got a more positive impression of the EU than I have, if you think they're going to start letting countries bug out and join EEA/EFTA easily!

You and I seem to be pretty much on the same page on the theory, but we seem to be differing in how we see the political reality actually unfolding. You're more upbeat than I, fair enough.

[SilverSixer]

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

Sorry, can't help you, I'm busy changing the bedsheets of a morning.

[Pan Pan Pan]

I suspect that the only party which will be taking votes from all from all the current parties at the next general election, if May`s tory party does not deliver on Brexit, will probably be UKIP. The Lib Dems might need to get a bigger phone box for their convention, if they get a few more votes than they did last time.

[SilverSixer]

Pan Pan Pan said:

I suspect that the only party which will be taking votes from all from all the current parties at the next general election, if May`s tory party does not deliver on Brexit, will probably be UKIP. The Lib Dems might need to get a bigger phone box for their convention, if they get a few more votes than they did last time.

I think you overestimate the importance of brexit in the minds of the majority of people. Were it Issue #1 at a general election, we'd have had a UKIP government already. Only 1 MP so far, and that by defection.

At the GE people will revert to voting on matters such as the economy and the like. Obviously there is a link between the economy and brexit, but even in 2020 the effect of the one on the other will be unclear, even if it has happened.

I can't see those who never voted for UKIP before but favour 'Leave' being minded to do so given that voting Tory has actually delivered the referendum and the shot at brexit we now have.

On the other hand I can see some dissatisfied remainers going LibDem, but probably not in significant enough numbers to make a difference. The only way there will be a shift towards the LibDems of any significance is if Labour MPs start jumping ship.

There you go, not what I would like to happen in some respects, but being realistic that's how I see it panning out for UKIP and LibDems.

[Pan Pan Pan]

SilverSixer said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

I suspect that the only party which will be taking votes from all from all the current parties at the next general election, if May`s tory party does not deliver on Brexit, will probably be UKIP. The Lib Dems might need to get a bigger phone box for their convention, if they get a few more votes than they did last time.

I think you overestimate the importance of brexit in the minds of the majority of people. Were it Issue #1 at a general election, we'd have had a UKIP government already. Only 1 MP so far, and that by defection.

At the GE people will revert to voting on matters such as the economy and the like. Obviously there is a link between the economy and brexit, but even in 2020 the effect of the one on the other will be unclear, even if it has happened.

I can't see those who never voted for UKIP before but favour 'Leave' being minded to do so given that voting Tory has actually delivered the referendum and the shot at brexit we now have.

On the other hand I can see some dissatisfied remainers going LibDem, but probably not in significant enough numbers to make a difference. The only way there will be a shift towards the LibDems of any significance is if Labour MPs start jumping ship.

There you go, not what I would like to happen in some respects, but being realistic that's how I see it panning out for UKIP and LibDems.

At the last general election getting an EU referendum was low, if at all in many voters agenda. The main issue was making sure that Milliband and the disastrous labour party, never got any where near the keys to No10. because most people know and realize for a fact that every time labour get into No10 it means economic disaster for the UK, which takes years to repair, after they have been given the boot by the electorate.
A majority of voters in the UK voted for Brexit, and that is what they expect to see, If Mays tory party does not deliver it, then voters from all current parties will vote for UKIP, They will not vote for the Lib Dems who are seen as staunch supporters for continued membership of the corrupt, unaccountable, money grabbing, dishonest EU. Fortunately for the UK, the liberal party could hold their conventions in a phonebox, which is as it should be.

[Hosenbugler]

As some appear clockwork it has to be done:

Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexitBrexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit Brexit means brexit

[Pan Pan Pan]

At the last general election UKIP got a 12.6 percent share of the votes and only one seat, whereas the SNP only got 4.7 percent of the votes but a far greater number of seats, so UKIP only getting one seat does not really carry much weight in the overall scheme of things. Seat numbers does seem to mean much in relation to numbers of votes, This does of course also apply to the Lib Dems.

[SilverSixer]

Pan Pan Pan said:

SilverSixer said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

I suspect that the only party which will be taking votes from all from all the current parties at the next general election, if May`s tory party does not deliver on Brexit, will probably be UKIP. The Lib Dems might need to get a bigger phone box for their convention, if they get a few more votes than they did last time.

I think you overestimate the importance of brexit in the minds of the majority of people. Were it Issue #1 at a general election, we'd have had a UKIP government already. Only 1 MP so far, and that by defection.

At the GE people will revert to voting on matters such as the economy and the like. Obviously there is a link between the economy and brexit, but even in 2020 the effect of the one on the other will be unclear, even if it has happened.

I can't see those who never voted for UKIP before but favour 'Leave' being minded to do so given that voting Tory has actually delivered the referendum and the shot at brexit we now have.

On the other hand I can see some dissatisfied remainers going LibDem, but probably not in significant enough numbers to make a difference. The only way there will be a shift towards the LibDems of any significance is if Labour MPs start jumping ship.

There you go, not what I would like to happen in some respects, but being realistic that's how I see it panning out for UKIP and LibDems.

At the last general election getting an EU referendum was low, if at all in many voters agenda. The main issue was making sure that Milliband and the disastrous labour party, never got any where near the keys to No10. because most people know and realize for a fact that every time labour get into No10 it means economic disaster for the UK, which takes years to repair, after they have been given the boot by the electorate.
A majority of voters in the UK voted for Brexit, and that is what they expect to see, If Mays tory party does not deliver it, then voters from all current parties will vote for UKIP, They will not vote for the Lib Dems who are seen as staunch supporters for continued membership of the corrupt, unaccountable, money grabbing, dishonest EU. Fortunately for the UK, the liberal party could hold their conventions in a phonebox, which is as it should be.

I think brexit will be similarly low on people's agendas if the alternative to May is Corbyn. Which it will be. If May has failed to deliver brexit, then people will still baulk at voting UKIP out of fear of letting Labour in. We saw similar at the last election with the Labour/SNP coalition fear. I don't think there's any scenario in which people will vote UKIP in sufficient numbers to put them in government, and I think most people will take a Tory government, even if it hasn't delivered brexit by 2020, over risking a Corbyn government. Indeed, in 2020 we may still have May promising to deliver brexit and sounding plausible on the subject. The obfuscation and can-kicking is obvious right now, and it may well continue long enough to return the Tories in 3.5 years time.

Your last comment on the LibDems makes you sound like a paid UKIP activist, and your fear that the LibDems may well rise again is evident. You don't have to keep spouting anti-EU rhetoric, misreprseentations and dogma. Get over it, you won.

Just because people voted Leave in a binary referendum is no evidence for the EU being their biggest concern at a GE.

[don'tbesilly]

Pan Pan Pan said:

At the last general election UKIP got a 12.6 percent share of the votes and only one seat, whereas the SNP only got 4.7 percent of the votes but a far greater number of seats, so UKIP only getting one seat does not really carry much weight in the overall scheme of things. Seat numbers does seem to mean much in relation to numbers of votes, This does of course also apply to the Lib Dems.

Lib - Dems - 7.9% share of the vote and 8 seats.

Chances of winning a GE, the same as Tim Farron winning the National Lottery, probably slimmer.

[don4l]

SilverSixer said:

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

Sorry, can't help you, I'm busy changing the bedsheets of a morning.

I'm surprised.

I thought that you had progressed to the "Denial" stage.

[SilverSixer]

don4l said:

SilverSixer said:

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

Sorry, can't help you, I'm busy changing the bedsheets of a morning.

I'm surprised.

I thought that you had progressed to the "Denial" stage.

No no. Bedwetting means bedwetting.

[paulrockliffe]

SilverSixer said:

Ironically it seems you've got a more positive impression of the EU than I have, if you think they're going to start letting countries bug out and join EEA/EFTA easily!

What does our membership of EEA have to do with the EU? We signed the EEA Agreement in our own right, we're not members through the EU's membership like Switzerland etc. We don't need to join EEA, we're already members.

Whether we stay in the EEA is another question, but it's not something the EU owns,as you seem to think.

[Sway]

SilverSixer said:

Ironically it seems you've got a more positive impression of the EU than I have, if you think they're going to start letting countries bug out and join EEA/EFTA easily!

You and I seem to be pretty much on the same page on the theory, but we seem to be differing in how we see the political reality actually unfolding. You're more upbeat than I, fair enough.

They may try to make joining the EEA difficult to swallow, in terms of demands for FOML and membership fees not far from current. They have zero influence or control of EFTA, and by default EFTA members have not only a FTA with the EU (originally agreed very quickly when they wanted us to join, and we doesn't want to lose the trading partnerships we had with the other EFTA members) - although no customs union.

Rejoining EFTA would also net us trade deals with countries the EU can only dream of having deals with.

For me, the first step of the negotiations would be with the EFTA members to rejoin them. Once it's agreed that we can rejoin the day we leave the EU, then go into negotiations with the EU Commission. We'll be in a position of strength at that point - knowing that we have FTA with some of our biggest markets, and new deals with growth markets. We can request membership of EEA with much less scope for compromise, and if the EU Commission don't like it then fine.

After all, we'll only be asking to join the EEA to avoid a few bits of paper, not tariffs...

[SilverSixer]

paulrockliffe said:

Whether we stay in the EEA is another question, but it's not something the EU owns,as you seem to think.

I think nothing of the sort. Weird comment.

Edited by SilverSixer on Tuesday 27th September 12:41

[AC43]

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

I occasionally make it across to Decision, with a huge effort, but then I quickly start slithering back down the slope and end up back at Frustration.

The problem is that I thought long and hard about this before the referendum and nothing has changed to make me feel better - in fact quite the reverse.

In fact, when discussing the whole thing with friends, colleagues and neighbours I often end up back at Shock.

To the extent that I actually try to stop myself talking about it at all.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th September 12:41

[Sway]

AC43 said:

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

I occasionally make it across to Decision, with a huge effort, but then I quickly start slithering back down the slope and end up back at Frustration.

The problem is that I thought long and hard about this before the referendum and nothing has changed to make me feel better - in fact quite the reverse.

In fact, when discussing the whole thing with friends, colleagues and neighbours I often end up back at Shock.

To the extent that I actually try to stop myself talking about it at all.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th September 12:41

With respect, it sounds like you're thinking about this in the wrong way - the choice about whether to remain or leave.

If you come at it from the view that the decision is made, and it isn't going to change, then the question becomes 'how can I/we make the best of it?'. Using that approach is hugely powerful, as often it's the previous proponents of the opposite choice that are looking at things differently and can therefore come up with options and alternatives that those who've been bought into the current direction haven't...

[craigjm]

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

It amuses me whenever people talk about change they often refer to this. It is actually called the five stages of grief and is outlined in her book "on death and dying" and is about how terminally sick patients come to terms with the fact they are going to die. Some business trainer type person renamed it and all of a sudden everything around change is based on it without any research grounding

[craigjm]

Sway said:

The question becomes 'how can I/we make the best of it?'.

This is what I have been saying for a few pages now. The decision has been made and we now need to make the best of the solution. I suspect a lot of leavers will be unhappy with the final outcome because it won't leave them as free as they had hoped and I suspect many remainers may find that things are not as bad as they had feared. Would be interesting to have a referendum on the deal but we won't. Our chance to cast judgement on it will be in the next GE but with Labour in such a state I'm not sure any protest against the deal, if people feel there should be one, would actually change the government.

[WinstonWolf]

craigjm said:

WinstonWolf said:

Remainers, where do you see yourselves on this? I suspect most of you are still on the downward slope, it'll pass in time.

It amuses me whenever people talk about change they often refer to this. It is actually called the five stages of grief and is outlined in her book "on death and dying" and is about how terminally sick patients come to terms with the fact they are going to die. Some business trainer type person renamed it and all of a sudden everything around change is based on it without any research grounding

This thread seems to prove quite conclusively that it applies...