Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[don'tbesilly]

covmutley said:

crankedup said:

The Government has spoken, numerous times, we are out.

Because nobody has backtracked at all in all of this? I think it all depends on the deal we get. We will probably go out but retain free access to market (paid for) and free movement between certain 'core' Eu countries.

or, a speech by May next year will go something like:

"the Uk voted to leave the EU but it has since become clear that the economy has downturned and the impact of Brexit will have serious consequences for us all. Since the UK voted to leave, I have secured (x,y z) reforms. The referendum vote did not produce an overwhelming majority, and given the reforms I have secured together with the economic reality of the consequences of leaving the EU we have experienced, it is very possible that the answer to the referendum would now be different. Moreover, I will not be the prime minister who triggers a serious downturn in the Uk economy. In the interests of the UK, my government will not trigger article 50..."

The alternative to the above is to read what May said in her leadership bid to become the PM.

May was quite emphatic in her ruling out a second referendum, and any attempts to backtrack on invoking A50, or rejoining further down the road.

OK, she's a politician and arguably up there with Estate Agents in terms of perceived honesty, but this continued notion that there will/could be a second referendum is unsettling everything and can't possibly be a good thing.

[sidicks]

EnglishTony said:

Divide & conquer while the Old Etonian culprits & their school friends in the City continue to make money.

'I wasn't avoiding tax I just wasn't sure that the pound was safe so I moved the cash to the Cayman Islands' Go & bloody live there then.

I guess you know very little about 'The City'?

[covmutley]

Agree no 2nd referendum. But They are already saying what the deal Has to include. They didn't say that before the vote.they will easily shift the Sands.

Cameron didn't get a good deal. The vote gives us leverage to get a good deal. No party will win an election on the promise of a huge recession.

[richardxjr]

A50 or Farage for PM. Your choice

[Terminator X]

covmutley said:

crankedup said:

The Government has spoken, numerous times, we are out.

Because nobody has backtracked at all in all of this? I think it all depends on the deal we get. We will probably go out but retain free access to market (paid for) and free movement between certain 'core' Eu countries.

or, a speech by May next year will go something like:

"the Uk voted to leave the EU but it has since become clear that the economy has downturned and the impact of Brexit will have serious consequences for us all. Since the UK voted to leave, I have secured (x,y z) reforms. The referendum vote did not produce an overwhelming majority, and given the reforms I have secured together with the economic reality of the consequences of leaving the EU we have experienced, it is very possible that the answer to the referendum would now be different. Moreover, I will not be the prime minister who triggers a serious downturn in the Uk economy. In the interests of the UK, my government will not trigger article 50..."

Or she might say:

"the Uk voted to leave the EU and it has since become clear that the economy has boomed and the impact of Brexit has had no serious consequences for us all. Since the UK voted to leave, I have secured (x,y z) reforms. The referendum vote did produce a majority, and given the reforms I have secured together with the booming economy after leaving the EU, it is very possible that the answer to the referendum is not at all different and indeed it was a democratic vote after all. I will not be the prime minister who triggers a serious downturn in the Uk economy and indeed we are not expecting one. In the interests of the UK and as democratically voted for by the voting public, my government will trigger article 50..."

Basically no one can predict the future shocker.

TX.

[vonuber]

richardxjr said:

A50 or Farage for PM. Your choice

Not with fptp. Even with 4 million votes they only got one mp.

I don't think there will be a second referendum but i think it is far more likely a compromise will be achieved where we stay in the eu but some reforms to its structure will be done.
It'll get presented as the best deal for the UK.

[sidicks]

vonuber said:

Not with fptp. Even with 4 million votes they only got one mp.

I don't think there will be a second referendum but i think it is far more likely a compromise will be achieved where we stay in the eu but some reforms to its structure will be done.
It'll get presented as the best deal for the UK.

[Mario149]

Terminator X said:

That isn't democracy though eg rinse and repeat until happy. Surely the death knell of democracy in the UK if it comes to that.

TX.

It's exactly democracy IMO, we can and do do it with GEs which happen every 5 years. Otherwise we'd have one general election and just leave it at that forever. And anyway, with GEs we can essentially have one any time we want providing enough MPs think it's the right thing to do. We could have a GE in 6 months time, then another a few months later if there was appetite for it because the prev gov had made a chronically bad decision.

This whole "we can't have another referendum or let MPs decide freely because it's undemocratic" really is a nonsense, especially when we're about to string ourselves up on the basis of a glorified opinion poll unleashed due to feuding in one of our parties. We elect MPs to make decisions for us and in our best interests, and if we don't llike th eanswer, that's tough. Our say comes when we get to vote them in or out.

If MPs are given an un-whipped vote and told to do what's right for their constituents, not what makes them popular, and they think that kicking our economy in the balls for the foreseeable is a price worth paying for some token sovereignty and no meaningful change to immigration, then so be it. But I'm pretty sure they're smarter than that.

Edited by Mario149 on Friday 1st July 12:59

[Blue62]

I am with you Mario, Europe is far too key to leave to a referendum and the politicians now know it. People talk about democracy, but what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan? People were misled, I have met plenty of people who voted leave and now regret it but I have yet to meet a single remainer who regrets their decision.

[jjlynn27]

covmutley said:

Agree no 2nd referendum. But They are already saying what the deal Has to include. They didn't say that before the vote.they will easily shift the Sands.

Cameron didn't get a good deal. The vote gives us leverage to get a good deal. No party will win an election on the promise of a huge recession.

I don't understand this 'the vote gives us leverage to get a good deal'. It doesn't. Nobody is offering any deals or any talks at present. By the way, the concessions that Cameron did get, for whatever they were worth, are now void. I don't think there is an appetite in EU for any renegotiation. The efforts should be made to see what are the options to get something like Norway deal, but even that will require a lot of work with no guarantees. The whole premise of having uper hand in these negotiations is false imo.

[Efbe]

jjlynn27 said:

covmutley said:

Agree no 2nd referendum. But They are already saying what the deal Has to include. They didn't say that before the vote.they will easily shift the Sands.

Cameron didn't get a good deal. The vote gives us leverage to get a good deal. No party will win an election on the promise of a huge recession.

I don't understand this 'the vote gives us leverage to get a good deal'. It doesn't. [b]Nobody is offering any deals or any talks at present.[b] By the way, the concessions that Cameron did get, for whatever they were worth, are now void. I don't think there is an appetite in EU for any renegotiation. The efforts should be made to see what are the options to get something like Norway deal, but even that will require a lot of work with no guarantees. The whole premise of having uper hand in these negotiations is false imo.

yes they are.

Sarkosy is talking about reducing free movement to 'core' countries.
Lajčák is saying he will 'support any measure that will help reverse the position of the British people'

This is before we have a PM to talk to as well.

[Mario149]

Blue62 said:

....what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan....

Exactly. It's verging on criminal. We get so het up about MPs spending public money on their duck ponds or whatever and prosecute them for that, but apparently outright lying to the electorate to effect permanent "democratic" change for 65M people is par for the course and the electorate should just suck it up and carry on regardless.

Edited by Mario149 on Friday 1st July 13:27

[sidicks]

Mario149 said:

It's exactly democracy IMO, we can and do do it with GEs which happen every 5 years. Otherwise we'd have one general election and just leave it at that forever. And anyway, with GEs we can essentially have one any time we want providing enough MPs think it's the right thing to do. We could have a GE in 6 months time, then another a few months later if there was appetite for it because the prev gov had made a chronically bad decision.

This whole "we can't have another referendum or let MPs decide freely because it's undemocratic" really is a nonsense, especially when we're about to string ourselves up on the basis of a glorified opinion poll unleashed due to feuding in one of our parties. We elect MPs to make decisions for us and in our best interests, and if we don't llike th eanswer, that's tough. Our say comes when we get to vote them in or out.

If MPs are given an un-whipped vote and told to do what's right for their constituents, not what makes them popular, and they think that kicking our economy in the balls for the foreseeable is a price worth paying for some token sovereignty and no meaningful change to immigration, then so be it. But I'm pretty sure they're smarter than that.

You seem to know an awful lot about something that's barely been discussed, yet alone agreed.

[LordHaveMurci]

Blue62 said:

I am with you Mario, Europe is far too key to leave to a referendum and the politicians now know it. People talk about democracy, but what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan? People were misled, I have met plenty of people who voted leave and now regret it but I have yet to meet a single remainer who regrets their decision.

I've only spoken to one person in the last week that would vote out again, all the other BREXITers now wished they'd voted to remain.

[JNW1]

Zod said:

JNW1 said:

Fastdruid said:

RizzoTheRat said:

That depends if there'd a GE called before Article 50 is declared. My understanding is once we go for article 50 we're out in 2 years whatever else gests decided, so a future government would have to apply to rejoin the EU, in which case we would be in the grovelling territory and would probably not get a great deal.

Yes, there is no way to stop Article 50 Plus we're not going to get a GE before 2020, you need 2/3rds of the HoC to vote on it and they're just not going to do it. The Labour party right now would be wiped out by UKIP, it would be suicide. Then again they seem absolutely hell bent on wiping out the party so hey ho.

Is that right though? My understanding is that the leaving country has to invoke Article 50 but is able to reverse that decision and remain a member on its existing terms should it decide to do so (see point 10 at the bottom of page 4 in the linked document below). The political ramifications associated with that could obviously be quite profound but as I read it if we think negotiations are likely to result in a poor outcome for Britain we could simply (!) reverse our decision to leave?

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/...

There is nothing in the Lisbon Treaty that clarifies whether a Member State that invokes Article 50 can withdraw its notification.

Perhaps so but in the opinion of two expert legal witnesses "a Member State could legally reverse a decision to withdraw from the EU at any point before the date on which the withdrawal agreement took effect." As per my earlier post, for political reasons it's probably quite unlikely you'd want to do so but if push came to shove it would appear that there's no legal reason why you couldn't?

[sidicks]

LordHaveMurci said:

I've only spoken to one person in the last week that would vote out again, all the other BREXITers now wished they'd voted to remain.

That's conclusive then...

[London424]

Mario149 said:

Blue62 said:

....what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan....

Exactly. It's verging on criminal. We get so het up about MPs spending public money on their duck ponds or whatever and prosecute them for that, but apparently outright lying to the electorate to effect permanent "democratic" change for 65M people is par for the course and the electorate should just suck it up and carry on regardless.

Edited by Mario149 on Friday 1st July 13:27

• Devils advocate mode on

What about the "criminal lie" that mortgages would go up because interest rates will rise after needing to announce an emergency budget last Friday?

[Fastdruid]

Look, we've always been the stone in the shoe of the EU. It's goal is "ever closer union". Moving towards a federalist superstate that we keep going "Nah" on. We have no place in the EU as it stands, we've said we never want the Euro (ignoring that certain parties would sign us up), we're not in the passport free zone. We keep pushing back on the "ever closer union" that they want. We already had 90% of the good without so much of the bad and we were after more.

They want our money, they want our power but they don't really want us because we don't really want to be a part of what they want.

The Euro is either going to crash and burn or the entire Eurozone will stagnate unless the EU does something, they need the political,economic and fiscal unity to be able to keep it and we are in the way of that.

I only hope that we get a decent deal where we can be "in" without getting in the way of their goal. Where we can have limited free movement, have access to the single market that we originally wanted but can still trade with the world outside the EU. Lets support them in their goal of ever closer union rather than hinder them for our own purposes. A business partner in support of a Unified Europe rather than 3rd wheel or an unhappy partner in a forced marriage.

[Blue62]

LordHaveMurci said:

I've only spoken to one person in the last week that would vote out again, all the other BREXITers now wished they'd voted to remain.

I know it's purely anecdotal and will no doubt attract the ire of the PH massive, but I reckon about 20 or so folk I've discussed this with regret their decision to leave. One guy is CEO of a reasonably sized business, he said he can't believe there was no exit strategy at which point I had to bite my lip, he is concerned about the telecoms business he runs, I'm more concerned that such a person could find themselves in a position of responsibility. Other responses have been more to do with fear of job losses and the unedifying images of extreme racism, which (rightly or wrongly) are now firmly linked to Leave.

[Robertj21a]

Blue62 said:

I am with you Mario, Europe is far too key to leave to a referendum and the politicians now know it. People talk about democracy, but what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan? People were misled, I have met plenty of people who voted leave and now regret it but I have yet to meet a single remainer who regrets their decision.

You're talking to the wrong people then. There's a number of Remainers who have said that they would now vote for Brexit - presumably they were previously afraid of the scares put out by Osborne + Co.
Any attempt to avoid exiting the EU would also bring a massive weight down on those MPs who are so happy to ignore a legal, democratic, vote.