Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

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London424

12,829 posts

175 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
London424 said:
Mrr T said:
b2hbm said:
But I'm slowly changing.

With the rhetoric coming out now from the EU they are either playing tough for the crowds or maybe they truly believe what they're saying, but that outlook is pushing the UK further towards a clean and complete break. (or the don4l plan as it's commonly known in Downing St wink )

There was a debate on R4 the other night with two folks arguing between Hard & Soft options. When it started I was ambivalent but with slight lean towards soft exit. By the time it was finished, I was nodding my head and thinking, "maybe hard is the best way forward". I suspect that is going through other minds as well, and that's why we're seeing the revival of Project Fear from some parts of our industry who may lose out.

Yes, "may" lose out, nobody can say they will until we know what the deal is and what subsidies the UK will allow to support industry. Just like the EU CAP allows the French farmers to carry on as they do.
Your missing the point "hard" Brexit is no deal with the EU. It's back to WTO rules. No passporting, standard EU tariffs, exit customs union. So that lots of jobs lost in financial services, Nissan etc, stopping investment in the UK, emergency budget with large tax rises, UK credit rating cut, further emergency budget with large cuts in expenditure. Happy days are here again. However, I am sure team leave will be happy we have stopped Johnny EU Foreigner coming here and not claiming our benefits.
A hypothetical for you...who do you think can last longer in a financial pissing contest, The UK or the EU?
What is it about team leave and pee?

This is about access to customers. Without passporting UK regulated FS companies will not be able to sell to rEU customers. The only option for the FS companies will be to relocate UK jobs to an rUK country.

With the current comments from the leave dream team I would expect many will be looking for new offices soon.
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
What is it about team leave and pee?

This is about access to customers. Without passporting UK regulated FS companies will not be able to sell to rEU customers. The only option for the FS companies will be to relocate UK jobs to an rUK country.

With the current comments from the leave dream team I would expect many will be looking for new offices soon.
The concern is they might not hang about - the sooner they act they better / cheaper offices they will secure. They won't want to be last in the queue competing for the office dregs in Paris, Berlin or Frankfurt.




///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
Good question.

Easy, the UK will lose out first.

There are ample trade stats out there that make this blindingly obvious.

London424

12,829 posts

175 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
London424 said:
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
Good question.

Easy, the UK will lose out first.

There are ample trade stats out there that make this blindingly obvious.
But who can last longer?

The UK has its own currency. It's own central bank. Would have no budget deficit constraints.

How long could the EU last?

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
///ajd said:
London424 said:
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
Good question.

Easy, the UK will lose out first.

There are ample trade stats out there that make this blindingly obvious.
But who can last longer?

The UK has its own currency. It's own central bank. Would have no budget deficit constraints.

How long could the EU last?
Its not so much about the govt as our businesses.

How long will Nissan stay with 10% tariffs? Less than 5 mins.

Here is a love letter to Liam Fuchs

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment...




London424

12,829 posts

175 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
London424 said:
///ajd said:
London424 said:
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
Good question.

Easy, the UK will lose out first.

There are ample trade stats out there that make this blindingly obvious.
But who can last longer?

The UK has its own currency. It's own central bank. Would have no budget deficit constraints.

How long could the EU last?
Its not so much about the govt as our businesses.

How long will Nissan stay with 10% tariffs? Less than 5 mins.

Here is a love letter to Liam Fuchs

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment...
Can our govt not use the tariffs on EU vehicles to fund U.K. Manufacturers. While the EU couldn't? While also deciding to remove tariffs on US and Japanese manufacturers?

loafer123

15,440 posts

215 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
Can our govt not use the tariffs on EU vehicles to fund U.K. Manufacturers. While the EU couldn't? While also deciding to remove tariffs on US and Japanese manufacturers?
Yes, it can. Lots of politicians are suggesting exactly that, and some have suggested that is why Nissan are pushing their issue so hard now.

don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
don'tbesilly said:
Nissan, give them the 10% tariff we get back from BMW/Merc/Vag group when the EU play silly games.
Do you not realise that ultimately it is the UK consumer that will pay the tariffs not the EU manufacturer?
Has it not occurred to you that the UK consumer won't pay the 10% tariff, because they will buy a car from another manufacturer where any tariff has been included in the price of the car for many years.

Has it not occurred to you that UK consumers will avoid buying goods from the EU because of what the UK consumers see as a punishment tax (tariff) because they chose to leave the UK. I can see a 'Buy British' campaign on the horizon.
If the EU impose tariffs I would certainly change my buying habits, firstly because of the perceived punishment, secondly to support UK business.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU manufacturers don't realise the implications of all the above and the impact this will have on their export markets. Do you not think the same manufacturers will lobby their respective Governments to arrive at a deal with the UK to protect their businesses and employees.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU countries employ more people dependent on goods and services that are purchased by the people in the UK, than people who are employed in the UK that are dependent on the EU countries.(I posted a link several days ago showing just this, unsurprisingly it was ignored by the remainers)

Has it not occurred to you that the EU are posturing, bullying and manipulating with the doom-mongering rhetoric, once the UK contribution disappears it will fall predominantly on Germany to pick up the shortfall, both France and Italy have seen no real growth in GDP for many years.

Perhaps one day and hopefully soon, the remainers will stop talking the UK down, realise that despite all the BS that we were told pre referendum about financial armageddon immediately after a vote to leave, that has not materialised (it's been the opposite), and the now cry "we've not left yet", will see a brighter future for the UK.

Brexit means BREXIT, for those in doubt what BREXIT means, here it is (allegedly):

' Britain heads for 'FULL BREAK' from EU: Fallon declares ALL Brussels ties will be cut'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/716371/Mich...

As a side show, to the above, perhaps a snapshot of what's happening in Europe presently that could have an impact on the EU as a whole and ultimately the UK leaving the EU.

1. The people of Hungary have a referendum of their own on Sunday. The vote is about accepting EU quotas of immigrants which is in direct defiance of the EU. The vote is expected to be a run away victory for Viktor Orban’s government to defy the EU's quotas on immigrants that Hungary must accommodate. This will fracture the EU's strength and cause untold damage.

2. The Austrian's have their election on Sunday. The right winger and Eurosceptic Norbert Hofer is looking favourite to win, and he has already stated he will look for a referendum on Austria's membership of the EU.

3. Some German banks are looking particularly vulnerable right now, Deutsche Bank,Germany's largest and arguably their financial flagship MAY only survive with a bail out by Germany, something the EU have already ruled out.
Merkel's popularity rating is at an all time low, and her Party were routed decisively only recently at the local elections in Berlin.

4. The 'Jungle' in France is due to be dismantled between now and the end of the year.The residents are to be distributed throughout France, which is causing much unrest and protest with the French.
Anecdotally, my Son has recently returned from Strasbourg after two years, and speaking to friends yesterday who live in Strasbourg, they have confirmed the above as being very much the case.

Hollande is far from safe in the French elections scheduled for next Spring (Apr/May), if Marine Le Pen uses the above circumstances to her advantage (which she will!), her support will flourish and she will be a force to be reckoned with.
Should Marine Le Penn become President of the French Republic, a French referendum on their membership of the EU would undoubtedly be a considered and likely consequence.

I could go on, but most of what I've written won't be read laugh

In many ways, the UK leaving the EU could end up being the sideshow.



Mrr T

12,227 posts

265 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
Mrr T said:
London424 said:
Mrr T said:
b2hbm said:
But I'm slowly changing.

With the rhetoric coming out now from the EU they are either playing tough for the crowds or maybe they truly believe what they're saying, but that outlook is pushing the UK further towards a clean and complete break. (or the don4l plan as it's commonly known in Downing St wink )

There was a debate on R4 the other night with two folks arguing between Hard & Soft options. When it started I was ambivalent but with slight lean towards soft exit. By the time it was finished, I was nodding my head and thinking, "maybe hard is the best way forward". I suspect that is going through other minds as well, and that's why we're seeing the revival of Project Fear from some parts of our industry who may lose out.

Yes, "may" lose out, nobody can say they will until we know what the deal is and what subsidies the UK will allow to support industry. Just like the EU CAP allows the French farmers to carry on as they do.
Your missing the point "hard" Brexit is no deal with the EU. It's back to WTO rules. No passporting, standard EU tariffs, exit customs union. So that lots of jobs lost in financial services, Nissan etc, stopping investment in the UK, emergency budget with large tax rises, UK credit rating cut, further emergency budget with large cuts in expenditure. Happy days are here again. However, I am sure team leave will be happy we have stopped Johnny EU Foreigner coming here and not claiming our benefits.
A hypothetical for you...who do you think can last longer in a financial pissing contest, The UK or the EU?
What is it about team leave and pee?

This is about access to customers. Without passporting UK regulated FS companies will not be able to sell to rEU customers. The only option for the FS companies will be to relocate UK jobs to an rUK country.

With the current comments from the leave dream team I would expect many will be looking for new offices soon.
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
It actually very clear if the UK lose passporting a UK regulated person selling to an rEU client would be commuting an offence.

Yes rEU FS companies would not be able to deal with UK customers. Who would win? So the requirements for FS are I suggest closely tied to GDP. The UK is 16% of EU GDP so yes we know who will win.

don4l

10,058 posts

176 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
London424 said:
Mrr T said:
London424 said:
Mrr T said:
b2hbm said:
But I'm slowly changing.

With the rhetoric coming out now from the EU they are either playing tough for the crowds or maybe they truly believe what they're saying, but that outlook is pushing the UK further towards a clean and complete break. (or the don4l plan as it's commonly known in Downing St wink )

There was a debate on R4 the other night with two folks arguing between Hard & Soft options. When it started I was ambivalent but with slight lean towards soft exit. By the time it was finished, I was nodding my head and thinking, "maybe hard is the best way forward". I suspect that is going through other minds as well, and that's why we're seeing the revival of Project Fear from some parts of our industry who may lose out.

Yes, "may" lose out, nobody can say they will until we know what the deal is and what subsidies the UK will allow to support industry. Just like the EU CAP allows the French farmers to carry on as they do.
Your missing the point "hard" Brexit is no deal with the EU. It's back to WTO rules. No passporting, standard EU tariffs, exit customs union. So that lots of jobs lost in financial services, Nissan etc, stopping investment in the UK, emergency budget with large tax rises, UK credit rating cut, further emergency budget with large cuts in expenditure. Happy days are here again. However, I am sure team leave will be happy we have stopped Johnny EU Foreigner coming here and not claiming our benefits.
A hypothetical for you...who do you think can last longer in a financial pissing contest, The UK or the EU?
What is it about team leave and pee?

This is about access to customers. Without passporting UK regulated FS companies will not be able to sell to rEU customers. The only option for the FS companies will be to relocate UK jobs to an rUK country.

With the current comments from the leave dream team I would expect many will be looking for new offices soon.
Right, so who can last longer in a financial pissing contest?

If we don't have access to customers (though it's not clear at all if that will be the case) and they don't have access to ours who loses out first?
It actually very clear if the UK lose passporting a UK regulated person selling to an rEU client would be commuting an offence.

Yes rEU FS companies would not be able to deal with UK customers. Who would win? So the requirements for FS are I suggest closely tied to GDP. The UK is 16% of EU GDP so yes we know who will win.
MIFID 2.

Stop talking about passporting. You know that it won't apply in 2 years time.




don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
jsf said:
How about we have a discussion like adults rather than this school yard nonsense.
My cost of living is going to increase with a hard brexit.

Will I be entitled to compensation?

tongue out
Maybe you should of thought about that when you decided NOT to vote.

If compensation is a consideration, you excluded yourself from any payment when you DIDN'T vote.

You want me to give consideration and compassion to Leave voters because they surprisingly lost, you who DIDN'T vote deserve nothing.



Edited by don'tbesilly on Saturday 1st October 12:45

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Has it not occurred to you that the UK consumer won't pay the 10% tariff, because they will buy a car from another manufacturer where any tariff has been included in the price of the car for many years.

Has it not occurred to you that UK consumers will avoid buying goods from the EU because of what the UK consumers see as a punishment tax (tariff) because they chose to leave the UK. I can see a 'Buy British' campaign on the horizon.
If the EU impose tariffs I would certainly change my buying habits, firstly because of the perceived punishment, secondly to support UK business.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU manufacturers don't realise the implications of all the above and the impact this will have on their export markets. Do you not think the same manufacturers will lobby their respective Governments to arrive at a deal with the UK to protect their businesses and employees.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU countries employ more people dependent on goods and services that are purchased by the people in the UK, than people who are employed in the UK that are dependent on the EU countries.(I posted a link several days ago showing just this, unsurprisingly it was ignored by the remainers)

Has it not occurred to you that the EU are posturing, bullying and manipulating with the doom-mongering rhetoric, once the UK contribution disappears it will fall predominantly on Germany to pick up the shortfall, both France and Italy have seen no real growth in GDP for many years.

Perhaps one day and hopefully soon, the remainers will stop talking the UK down, realise that despite all the BS that we were told pre referendum about financial armageddon immediately after a vote to leave, that has not materialised (it's been the opposite), and the now cry "we've not left yet", will see a brighter future for the UK.
No, because they wont relinquish their BMW for a Nissan (or whatever).

No, because it is the UK that imposes import taxes.

No, because we will continue to purchase their goods and the UK is not as important to them as you think we are.

No, see previous response.

No, the EU have talked sense so far. We are leaving, we are entitled to nothing from them.

Time will tell.





Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Saturday 1st October 12:44

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Maybe you should of thought about that when you decided NOT to vote.

If compensation is a consideration, you excluded yourself from any payment when you DIDN'T vote.

You want me to give consideration and compassion to Leave voters because they surprisingly lost, you who DIDN'T vote deserve neither.
Should have, not should of.

Stickyfinger

8,429 posts

105 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Should have, not should of.


dork points awarded, one free

don'tbesilly

13,933 posts

163 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
don'tbesilly said:
Maybe you should of thought about that when you decided NOT to vote.

If compensation is a consideration, you excluded yourself from any payment when you DIDN'T vote.

You want me to give consideration and compassion to Leave voters because they surprisingly lost, you who DIDN'T vote deserve neither.
Should have, not should of.
Pathetic response,for a pathetic reason, from a pathetic person.






///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Has it not occurred to you that the UK consumer won't pay the 10% tariff, because they will buy a car from another manufacturer where any tariff has been included in the price of the car for many years.

Has it not occurred to you that UK consumers will avoid buying goods from the EU because of what the UK consumers see as a punishment tax (tariff) because they chose to leave the UK. I can see a 'Buy British' campaign on the horizon.
If the EU impose tariffs I would certainly change my buying habits, firstly because of the perceived punishment, secondly to support UK business.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU manufacturers don't realise the implications of all the above and the impact this will have on their export markets. Do you not think the same manufacturers will lobby their respective Governments to arrive at a deal with the UK to protect their businesses and employees.

Has it not occurred to you that the EU countries employ more people dependent on goods and services that are purchased by the people in the UK, than people who are employed in the UK that are dependent on the EU countries.(I posted a link several days ago showing just this, unsurprisingly it was ignored by the remainers)

Has it not occurred to you that the EU are posturing, bullying and manipulating with the doom-mongering rhetoric, once the UK contribution disappears it will fall predominantly on Germany to pick up the shortfall, both France and Italy have seen no real growth in GDP for many years.

Perhaps one day and hopefully soon, the remainers will stop talking the UK down, realise that despite all the BS that we were told pre referendum about financial armageddon immediately after a vote to leave, that has not materialised (it's been the opposite), and the now cry "we've not left yet", will see a brighter future for the UK.

Brexit means BREXIT, for those in doubt what BREXIT means, here it is (allegedly):

' Britain heads for 'FULL BREAK' from EU: Fallon declares ALL Brussels ties will be cut'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/716371/Mich...

As a side show, to the above, perhaps a snapshot of what's happening in Europe presently that could have an impact on the EU as a whole and ultimately the UK leaving the EU.

1. The people of Hungary have a referendum of their own on Sunday. The vote is about accepting EU quotas of immigrants which is in direct defiance of the EU. The vote is expected to be a run away victory for Viktor Orban’s government to defy the EU's quotas on immigrants that Hungary must accommodate. This will fracture the EU's strength and cause untold damage.

2. The Austrian's have their election on Sunday. The right winger and Eurosceptic Norbert Hofer is looking favourite to win, and he has already stated he will look for a referendum on Austria's membership of the EU.

3. Some German banks are looking particularly vulnerable right now, Deutsche Bank,Germany's largest and arguably their financial flagship MAY only survive with a bail out by Germany, something the EU have already ruled out.
Merkel's popularity rating is at an all time low, and her Party were routed decisively only recently at the local elections in Berlin.

4. The 'Jungle' in France is due to be dismantled between now and the end of the year.The residents are to be distributed throughout France, which is causing much unrest and protest with the French.
Anecdotally, my Son has recently returned from Strasbourg after two years, and speaking to friends yesterday who live in Strasbourg, they have confirmed the above as being very much the case.

Hollande is far from safe in the French elections scheduled for next Spring (Apr/May), if Marine Le Pen uses the above circumstances to her advantage (which she will!), her support will flourish and she will be a force to be reckoned with.
Should Marine Le Penn become President of the French Republic, a French referendum on their membership of the EU would undoubtedly be a considered and likely consequence.

I could go on, but most of what I've written won't be read laugh

In many ways, the UK leaving the EU could end up being the sideshow.
Fair points, but there are counters also:

Has it occurred to you that UK punters won't want to pay 10% extra, and resent such tariffs - they won't be acceptable. Brexit tax on a BMW. Thanks.

Has it occurred to you that the EU could sit tight on tariffs for a while and force e.g. Nissan to the EU. Then after 5 years scrap all car tariffs to the UK as a "favour" to us once they've "won". If their shoes, thats what I'd do.

Buy British? Is this our brave new global world? Can we just sack Fox then?
This is the sort of trade outlook that had the East Germans driving Trabants for 40 years.


PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Pathetic response,for a pathetic reason, from a pathetic person.
I see you didn't take heed of my comment yesterday morning.

ajd is correct, so many leavers resort to throwing insults eventually.

Shame ....

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Saturday 1st October 13:05

Stickyfinger

8,429 posts

105 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
don'tbesilly said:
Pathetic response,for a pathetic reason, from a pathetic person.
I see you didn't take heed of my comment yesterday morning.

ajd is correct, so many leaves resort to throwing insults eventually.

Shame ....
or a cheep grammar checking.....talking of sad

Mrr T

12,227 posts

265 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
MIFID 2.

Stop talking about passporting. You know that it won't apply in 2 years time.
Don4l do those health issues you posted about yesterday include sight problems because you seem incapable of reading my posts on this.

MiFID 2 which allows countries with equivalence to apply for passporting will be fully implemented in 2018. However, there is no indication how the process will work. AIFMD allowed some limited passporting and was implemented in 2015. A year later and we are starting to see some guidelines from ESMA how the process will work.

So with luck we might get passporting via MIFID 2 in 2019/2020. If your happy to wait that long to start the art 50 process so am I.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 1st October 2016
quotequote all
Stickyfinger said:
or a cheep grammar checking.....talking of sad
And it's this sort of attitude that has got us where we are today. Parents and teachers not willing to correct children because it might hurt their delicate little feelings.

But I digress .....
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