Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result
Discussion
JNW1 said:
Difference is, though, in an employment situation once you've handed-in your notice the company is under no obligation to allow you to withdraw it and keep your existing job if you change your mind. However, a country can invoke Article 50 to start the process to leave the EU but if they subsequently change their mind before the 2 year minimum negotiation period has expired they can still remain on their existing terms....
Are you sure about that?LordHaveMurci said:
JNW1 said:
Difference is, though, in an employment situation once you've handed-in your notice the company is under no obligation to allow you to withdraw it and keep your existing job if you change your mind. However, a country can invoke Article 50 to start the process to leave the EU but if they subsequently change their mind before the 2 year minimum negotiation period has expired they can still remain on their existing terms....
Are you sure about that?Mario149 said:
London424 said:
Mario149 said:
Blue62 said:
....what is democratic about being sold a bunch of lies on immigration, NHS funding and the economic consequences, with no coherent exit plan....
Exactly. It's verging on criminal. We get so het up about MPs spending public money on their duck ponds or whatever and prosecute them for that, but apparently outright lying to the electorate to effect permanent "democratic" change for 65M people is par for the course and the electorate should just suck it up and carry on regardless.Edited by Mario149 on Friday 1st July 13:27
- Devils advocate mode on
The experts that you have put up on a pedestal as knowing what will happen or what they would need to do upon a no vote were completely and utterly wrong.
Sure interest rates will rise in the future (but they've been saying that for god knows how long now anyway).
The only thing we know is that there is no and will be no emergency budget. Carney has suggested that interest rates are likely to DROP in the not too distant future. Both things they would have known before the vote.
LordHaveMurci said:
JNW1 said:
Difference is, though, in an employment situation once you've handed-in your notice the company is under no obligation to allow you to withdraw it and keep your existing job if you change your mind. However, a country can invoke Article 50 to start the process to leave the EU but if they subsequently change their mind before the 2 year minimum negotiation period has expired they can still remain on their existing terms....
Are you sure about that?http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/...
Fastdruid said:
London424 said:
Carney has suggested that interest rates are likely to DROP in the not too distant future.
In his personal opinion they might...Which frankly I hold a lot of respect for, he's one of the few that's come out of this crapfest with any dignity.
sidicks said:
Mario149 said:
The chancellor expects the economy is going to take a hit, so does the governor of the bank of England, amongst many others who know what they're talking about. We know what sovereignty we'll get back if we leave, and it's not going to make a jot of difference to the average man in the street, in the near term, if ever. We know we're going to have "uncontrolled" immigration for 2.5 years still at least, longer if we have to stay in the single market, which incidentally, our financial services appear to be borked without. Apparently it's okay to take Theresa May and our current gov at their word that we're def exiting, but it's *not* okay to believe foreign leaders/politicians who say you can't have Europe a la carte. God give me strength!
Now I'm more than happy to admit that it's not a dead cert any of this is going to happen, but this constant Brexit camp implication (or sometimes directly stated) that "the experts are wrong" and "selective belief" thing is starting to get tiresome.
All this stuff 'you know', then all of a sudden none of it is certain...Now I'm more than happy to admit that it's not a dead cert any of this is going to happen, but this constant Brexit camp implication (or sometimes directly stated) that "the experts are wrong" and "selective belief" thing is starting to get tiresome.
Not sure anyone is saying your (carefully cherry-picked) experts are wrong, just that there is massive uncertainty, until the terms of the exit are clear.
I'm glad you can admit that they might be right though, but it would have been better if the Leave campaign had perhaps mentioned it a little more, rather than telling people to ignore the experts.
As for the "not a dead cert any of this is going to happen", I'll concede that one, I should have been clear that I was referring TM, the foreign politicians view and a la carte EU.
"there is massive uncertainty, until the terms of the exit are clear" - true, would have been nice if the Leave campaign had made a point of mentioning that one as well.
Mario149 said:
"Carefully cherry picked" experts? They're the 2 people that basically run the finances of the country based on input from other experts. I guess by that logic the new PM better not accidentally cherry pick the Chief of the General staff for military advice.
What happened to that expert's 'emergency budget'...?Mario149 said:
I'm glad you can admit that they might be right though, but it would have been better if the Leave campaign had perhaps mentioned it a little more, rather than telling people to ignore the experts.
As for the "not a dead cert any of this is going to happen", I'll concede that one, I should have been clear that I was referring TM, the foreign politicians view and a la carte EU.
"there is massive uncertainty, until the terms of the exit are clear" - true, would have been nice if the Leave campaign had made a point of mentioning that one as well.
I'm not aware of anyone claiming that 'Leave' would not have uncertainty?As for the "not a dead cert any of this is going to happen", I'll concede that one, I should have been clear that I was referring TM, the foreign politicians view and a la carte EU.
"there is massive uncertainty, until the terms of the exit are clear" - true, would have been nice if the Leave campaign had made a point of mentioning that one as well.
Mario149 said:
So I *can't* say "let's wait and see for a bit" on interest rates, but the Brexit campaign *can* say "let's wait and see for a bit" for the entire British economy? Riiiiight.
No, you can say exactly that. You can't credibly make the rest of the certain statements you've repeated!Mario149 said:
London424 said:
Hang on you can't just say 'I might be correct in x years from now'.
So I *can't* say "let's wait and see for a bit" on interest rates, but the Brexit campaign *can* say "let's wait and see for a bit" for the entire British economy? Riiiiight.We already know the experts have lied about that first one. Only time will tell what happens on the other one.
Robertj21a said:
Efbe said:
OML.
In different words in another thread I have made exactly the same prediction.
I don't really see how it can go any differently to this.
Really ? Seriously ?In different words in another thread I have made exactly the same prediction.
I don't really see how it can go any differently to this.
My personal feeling is that you're going to be very disappointed when the drawbridge goes up.
Efbe said:
onemorelap said:
Efbe said:
jjlynn27 said:
covmutley said:
Agree no 2nd referendum. But They are already saying what the deal Has to include. They didn't say that before the vote.they will easily shift the Sands.
Cameron didn't get a good deal. The vote gives us leverage to get a good deal. No party will win an election on the promise of a huge recession.
I don't understand this 'the vote gives us leverage to get a good deal'. It doesn't. [b]Nobody is offering any deals or any talks at present.[b] By the way, the concessions that Cameron did get, for whatever they were worth, are now void. I don't think there is an appetite in EU for any renegotiation. The efforts should be made to see what are the options to get something like Norway deal, but even that will require a lot of work with no guarantees. The whole premise of having uper hand in these negotiations is false imo.Cameron didn't get a good deal. The vote gives us leverage to get a good deal. No party will win an election on the promise of a huge recession.
Sarkosy is talking about reducing free movement to 'core' countries.
Laj?ák is saying he will 'support any measure that will help reverse the position of the British people'
This is before we have a PM to talk to as well.
All of the protagonists of the piece so far are being removed and the one viewed as being a "moderate" is being offered an olive branch before we have even make an approach.
"Well, it is a Friday.............
Mays challengers will drop by the way side over the next week or so "in the national interest".
May will go and have a brew and a chat with the moderate chap at the EU who is in place for the next 6 months, positions will be seen to soften on both sides giving soothing noises to the market.
The impartial BBC will ramp up a hearts and minds campaign with programmes showing the plight of fleeing refugees and we will be so EU'd up by xmas that we will be putting fairies on top of the Scandinavian trees waving an EU flag.
"Productive" and "constructive" talks will carry on until xmas with a compromise being reached in some form and a proposal that "we may as well remain for now" back to parliament early 2017.
The proposal won't need a referendum as "the majority of leavers only voted leave because they saw nothing but a stonewall from the EU at the time of the referendum.
This position has clearly changed so the majority of leavers would now vote "remain". Majority vote succeeds in parliament because the majority of MPs want to stay in and Article 50 will be in the background, initially as an idle threat to be re-introduced if the UK deem the EU are being naughty again (which will satisfy some of the slighty less hardcore leavers) and the EU know its an empty threat that will get quietly forgotten about / legislated out in a few years time.
Junker and Co will be told to wind their necks in "because £UK" and all will be well in the world until Scotland start wriggling again "because Scotland".
The hardcore leavers that are seen to have made the difference in the referendum will kick off initially but will disappear off to vote UKIP (if they can be bothered) that wont exist because the Tories and the EU have now made them a laughing stock as well as diminishing the impact of other Eurosceptic parties in time for the French and German elections.
Simples."
In different words in another thread I have made exactly the same prediction.
I don't really see how it can go any differently to this.
Despite not being very savvy on all this I have learnt a massive amount mainly from the contributors on various threads on here over the weeks (thanks v. much one and all, even cmoose!!) and despite feeling like a "duped lab rat" at the referendum, on reflection I have come to realize that the fundamentals are we are right in the middle of a big play to crush euro skepticism so the EU project can continue.
Everyone has played their part to date and moved off stage and its time for the next act to move it on.
I have given my own naïve prediction for the second act but this was mainly as a result of reviewing the 1st part of the act.
If remain had "won", Cameron would have defeated Johnson and UKIP would have been shuffled out to the margins as the UK had spoken.
This would have paved the way for Cameron / Osbourne but would have left other European member states to manage their own issues around the rising levels of dis-temper.
I have heard a lot of noise around this and I am not sure how a remain vote would have affected this position other than it sent a message of "carry on" so the rising levels of dis-temper would have continued, possibly impacting national elections onto referendums on to a more significant impact to the EU itself.
Now the leavers have "won" Cameron, Johnson and UKIP are all marginalized and almost a week to the day since the bombshell there is a more moderate figure at the helm of the EU who just happens to be in place for the next 6 months, the same time frame as Theresa May mentioned she would work to before pulling the article 50 trigger.
As a result of the outcome we have now attracted a massive ally in Sarkozy as he can use our perceived "distemper" to shout louder for immediate reform in the EU as a warning before France and Germany's elections.
Basically it just adds more weight to us getting what we need as the message will be to the EU "Reform quickly or die".
The daft thing is if it all plays out we will have played a pivotal role in strengthening our position in the EU as well as the EU strengthening its own position but for the exact opposite reasons to that we voted.
Have I got this right so far?
The one act I struggled to figure out was Junker.
He either played a brilliant @rsehole to p@ss us off enough to want out or he is just an @rsehole.
London424 said:
Hang on you can't just say 'I might be correct in x years from now'.
The experts that you have put up on a pedestal as knowing what will happen or what they would need to do upon a no vote were completely and utterly wrong.
Sure interest rates will rise in the future (but they've been saying that for god knows how long now anyway).
The only thing we know is that there is no and will be no emergency budget. Carney has suggested that interest rates are likely to DROP in the not too distant future. Both things they would have known before the vote.
There is an important distinction between forecasting what might happen in the event of Brexit (most of which will probably be somewhere near the mark in the short to medium term) and pledging spend on the NHS, migration controls and economic boom times as we embrace the rest of the world, with Germany on its knees because we won't be buying their cars. The experts that you have put up on a pedestal as knowing what will happen or what they would need to do upon a no vote were completely and utterly wrong.
Sure interest rates will rise in the future (but they've been saying that for god knows how long now anyway).
The only thing we know is that there is no and will be no emergency budget. Carney has suggested that interest rates are likely to DROP in the not too distant future. Both things they would have known before the vote.
A rag tag bunch of politicians from across the spectrum have led us into a situation that they were not expecting or prepared for, each has its own agenda, whether it be sovereignty, race or (mystifyingly) the economy. It is a mess and Boris knows it, that's why he has scarpered.
XJ40 said:
It seems to me that some are over-thinking this Brexit thing. It doesn't appear there was much political planning in place at all, just politicians winging it, reacting to events and operating a "let's crossed that bridge when we get to it" mentality...
What plan can there be other than 'let's negotiate the best deal we can'?Dr Jekyll said:
What plan can there be other than 'let's negotiate the best deal we can'?
How about having a bargaining position ready in advance? Little thing. Might have been useful to avoid delays. Could have been used in a campaign or something.Edited by marshalla on Friday 1st July 19:57
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