Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
Jimboka said:
Incredible really. The world leaders are running around like headless chickens trying to sort out the mess. I'm sure they have other issues the would rather concentrate on. Meanwhile the clueless architect of the disaster is poncing about on a cricket field
The rest of the EU don't play cricket. Well, Ireland do. Ish.Murph7355 said:
The rest of the EU don't play cricket. Well, Ireland do. Ish.
Les Français, aussi. http://www.icc-cricket.com/about/123/icc-members/a...und ze Germans : http://www.icc-cricket.com/about/124/icc-members/a...
http://www.icc-cricket.com/about/121/icc-members/a...
http://www.icc-cricket.com/about/116/icc-members/a...
They just don't play it terribly well.
jamiem555 said:
vonuber said:
Bugger me, he's practically nostradamus isn't he. Got it spot on.
Not really. Anyone with half a brain could work that one out. Unfortunately 18 million people have just proved otherwise.I would be acclaiming his outspews if he was accurately predicting what the position would be on exit in three years time, and putting his balls on the line for the position when remaining in a similar timeframe.
There is no balanced view long term, and the long terms is what we should all be concerned about. Just more party political, negative short-termist outbursts with the potential to damage the UK.
Jimboka said:
Incredible really. The world leaders are running around like headless chickens trying to sort out the mess. I'm sure they have other issues the would rather concentrate on. Meanwhile the clueless architect of the disaster is poncing about on a cricket field
It's not incredible, it's very predictable.Boris is a clever and educated man, what a certain section of the country seem to be crying out for now is "strong leadership"... What do people mean by this? Does 21st century modern Britain see a straight cut man in a well cut plain suit as "strong"? I don't think so.
From here on in Boris is going to play the opposite of Putin, it will suit him on many many levels, he's probably read and studied more about the rise and fall of "strong" leadership than most in whitehall, he knows how to create his image, from Cyrus, Alexander to Machiavelli and through to Kim Jong Il I suspect he's well studied and has been planning for this since he was in short pants. From here on in it's all about the "New" politics with Boris, we won't take a traditional "strong man" role but we will adopt the flawed buffoon, it's part of the British psyche and I can see him and Trump fitting together quite well.
As for the Norwegians, forget about it, we'll never negotiate what they did, they have the best diplomats in the world and almost universal good will across the globe (friendly rivalry with the swedes aside). We don't have a snow balls chance of settling on a similar arrangement to them, unless we bend over and are well and trully shafted re: Fisheries, CAP, free movement et all, which would be so blindly obviously against what the public voted for in this referendum.
Mr_B said:
don'tbesilly said:
pim said:
///ajd said:
Stuff
Probably a recipe from The Guardian with a dash of FT/ pinch of BBC and an ounce of hyperbole.
The taste suits some, but not the 52%.
don4l said:
Dear God!
We will not go down the Norway route.
Tusk, Schulz and Junker are all absolutely crapping themselves.
Their instincts are to threaten the UK to discourage Denmark, France and Ireland from following the glorious UK.
Unfortunatley, for these three idiots, Merkel and Hollande will not stand for trade restrictions on the UK. Why not? I hear you ask. The Germans export a fifth of their car production to us. We take a huge amount of French wine.
Yesterday, the BBC wailed that the FTSE fell by 7%. Actually, by the close, the FTSE100 had lost 3%. It was still 2%, or 115 points, above last Friday.
On the other hand, BMW, Daimler(Mercedes) and Volkswagen all lost 8%. The French stock market also lost 8%. The Spanish market lost 12%.
The EU will want to negotiate with us, not the other way around.
Our opening position should be polite. We will offer them a 1% reduction on car imports (i.e. 9% instead of 10%) if they will apply a rate of zero % to our car exports.
If they don't think that this is fair, then we can demonstrate "freedom of movement" by showing them the way back to Heathrow.
I'm not very political, but if I were Prime Minister, this is how I would play it.
I wouldn't go to Brussels. I would, reluctantly, agree to a short meeting in Downing Street. However, it would be pointless to have a meeting with just one of the presidents, so I would insist that they all came together. I would also allow them the honour of using the door knocker on No 10. I don't care if they stand in line while they knock at the door, or if they stand in a huddle.
The doorman would be under strict instructions not to keep them waiting for more than 10, 20, or maybe 30 seconds. After all, this may appear on television, and it might be rude if they are kept waiting for too long.
I take it that you get my gist.
We are not going the Norway route. We are going the British route.
We will not go down the Norway route.
Tusk, Schulz and Junker are all absolutely crapping themselves.
Their instincts are to threaten the UK to discourage Denmark, France and Ireland from following the glorious UK.
Unfortunatley, for these three idiots, Merkel and Hollande will not stand for trade restrictions on the UK. Why not? I hear you ask. The Germans export a fifth of their car production to us. We take a huge amount of French wine.
Yesterday, the BBC wailed that the FTSE fell by 7%. Actually, by the close, the FTSE100 had lost 3%. It was still 2%, or 115 points, above last Friday.
On the other hand, BMW, Daimler(Mercedes) and Volkswagen all lost 8%. The French stock market also lost 8%. The Spanish market lost 12%.
The EU will want to negotiate with us, not the other way around.
Our opening position should be polite. We will offer them a 1% reduction on car imports (i.e. 9% instead of 10%) if they will apply a rate of zero % to our car exports.
If they don't think that this is fair, then we can demonstrate "freedom of movement" by showing them the way back to Heathrow.
I'm not very political, but if I were Prime Minister, this is how I would play it.
I wouldn't go to Brussels. I would, reluctantly, agree to a short meeting in Downing Street. However, it would be pointless to have a meeting with just one of the presidents, so I would insist that they all came together. I would also allow them the honour of using the door knocker on No 10. I don't care if they stand in line while they knock at the door, or if they stand in a huddle.
The doorman would be under strict instructions not to keep them waiting for more than 10, 20, or maybe 30 seconds. After all, this may appear on television, and it might be rude if they are kept waiting for too long.
I take it that you get my gist.
We are not going the Norway route. We are going the British route.
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
A large amount of this supposed "business" is just a paper trail anyway, stuff like Starbucks's Double Irish Dutch sandwich nonsense etc... A vast bulk of international business is done by handfull of international corporates who may hang about the periphery of the negotiations to see what they can influence and how they can protect themselves but trust me plans are being hatched to move capital, billing, jobs and markets to places where bungling EU diplomats and the Great British Bulldog spirit can't harm them.
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
You are determined to be negative on their behalf, aren't you? At the business level, no-one wants artificial barriers to trade. With Europe struggling to stave off recession, what benefit is there to making it harder to trade with a major partner? At the political level, though Europe needs to encourage unity Brussels can hardly afford to reinforce the impression that it's an unaccountable power by handing out beatings to members that don't toe the line. Merkel's said as much, and I expect we'll hear a lot more in the near future about the need to listen and reform.
Whilst it's no bed of roses, at this stage I suspect pragmatism will win out once the hysteria dies down.
Tuna said:
Matthias Wissmann, of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA):
‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
You are determined to be negative on their behalf, aren't you? At the business level, no-one wants artificial barriers to trade. With Europe struggling to stave off recession, what benefit is there to making it harder to trade with a major partner? At the political level, though Europe needs to encourage unity Brussels can hardly afford to reinforce the impression that it's an unaccountable power by handing out beatings to members that don't toe the line. Merkel's said as much, and I expect we'll hear a lot more in the near future about the need to listen and reform.
Whilst it's no bed of roses, at this stage I suspect pragmatism will win out once the hysteria dies down.
I'm sure businesses in the US, in China, in India all would state the same thing - it would be great if there were no customs barriers between us and them. However, their governments have thought otherwise, and it takes a lot of negotiation and time to change that.‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
You are determined to be negative on their behalf, aren't you? At the business level, no-one wants artificial barriers to trade. With Europe struggling to stave off recession, what benefit is there to making it harder to trade with a major partner? At the political level, though Europe needs to encourage unity Brussels can hardly afford to reinforce the impression that it's an unaccountable power by handing out beatings to members that don't toe the line. Merkel's said as much, and I expect we'll hear a lot more in the near future about the need to listen and reform.
Whilst it's no bed of roses, at this stage I suspect pragmatism will win out once the hysteria dies down.
Just because business leaders in the EU want there to be no artificial barriers to trade, doesn't mean the EU are not going to put them in place, regardless of 'pragmatism'. If they were pragmatic in the way you would like them to be, the EU and Euro would already have collapsed.
mattmurdock said:
I'm sure businesses in the US, in China, in India all would state the same thing - it would be great if there were no customs barriers between us and them. However, their governments have thought otherwise, and it takes a lot of negotiation and time to change that.
Just because business leaders in the EU want there to be no artificial barriers to trade, doesn't mean the EU are not going to put them in place, regardless of 'pragmatism'. If they were pragmatic in the way you would like them to be, the EU and Euro would already have collapsed.
Except that the UK government can scrap any or all import tariffs if they wish and there is nothing the EU can do about it.Just because business leaders in the EU want there to be no artificial barriers to trade, doesn't mean the EU are not going to put them in place, regardless of 'pragmatism'. If they were pragmatic in the way you would like them to be, the EU and Euro would already have collapsed.
Dr Jekyll said:
mattmurdock said:
I'm sure businesses in the US, in China, in India all would state the same thing - it would be great if there were no customs barriers between us and them. However, their governments have thought otherwise, and it takes a lot of negotiation and time to change that.
Just because business leaders in the EU want there to be no artificial barriers to trade, doesn't mean the EU are not going to put them in place, regardless of 'pragmatism'. If they were pragmatic in the way you would like them to be, the EU and Euro would already have collapsed.
Except that the UK government can scrap any or all import tariffs if they wish and there is nothing the EU can do about it.Just because business leaders in the EU want there to be no artificial barriers to trade, doesn't mean the EU are not going to put them in place, regardless of 'pragmatism'. If they were pragmatic in the way you would like them to be, the EU and Euro would already have collapsed.
This article proposes that adopting a free trade policy would be beneficial regardless of the other side's negotiating stance. The same logic applies to Europe's policy towards us:
Article said:
The really important thing here being that we do know this would work. That Minford book goes through exactly this scenario. And the outcome is that even if the EU plays silly buggers and imposes the standard tariffs on our exports this trace stance, this only sensible one of unilateral free trade, still makes the British economy larger, makes us all richer, than we would be with any other trade system.
Tuna said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
Tuna said:
You are determined to be negative on their behalf, aren't you? At the business level, no-one wants artificial barriers to trade. With Europe struggling to stave off recession, what benefit is there to making it harder to trade with a major partner? At the political level, though Europe needs to encourage unity Brussels can hardly afford to reinforce the impression that it's an unaccountable power by handing out beatings to members that don't toe the line. Merkel's said as much, and I expect we'll hear a lot more in the near future about the need to listen and reform.
Whilst it's no bed of roses, at this stage I suspect pragmatism will win out once the hysteria dies down.
I'm not particularly trying to be negative. I'm just questioning a poster with a view that somehow we've got the upper hand in any up coming negotiations with a few simple statistics.Whilst it's no bed of roses, at this stage I suspect pragmatism will win out once the hysteria dies down.
As for the rest, Brussels isn't handing out a beating to a member that isn't toeing the line, is it? We're going to be a former member, and they're keen to encourage a lack of further former members!
If they turn round and say "gosh, you were right all along, let's set up a lovely trade deal", what message does that send to other members?
Either the EU is an evil, undemocratic organisation riding roughshod over the views of member nations or it's not. If it isn't, why did we vote to leave? If it is, why do you think our voting to leave is suddenly going to make them change?
Tuna said:
You are determined to be negative on their behalf, aren't you? At the business level, no-one wants artificial barriers to trade. With Europe struggling to stave off recession, what benefit is there to making it harder to trade with a major partner? At the political level, though Europe needs to encourage unity Brussels can hardly afford to reinforce the impression that it's an unaccountable power by handing out beatings to members that don't toe the line. Merkel's said as much, and I expect we'll hear a lot more in the near future about the need to listen and reform.
The UK also needs to listen very hard. The lose of EU financial services passporting would be very expensive for the UK.Tuna said:
Matthias Wissmann, of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA):
‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
Would Matthias be quite so adamant on that if VAG, BMW, Mercedes, etc were UK companies?‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
Leins said:
Would Matthias be quite so adamant on that if VAG, BMW, Mercedes, etc were UK companies?
Genuinely I think he would. From a trade perspective, whichever side you're on adding artificial barriers makes your life harder. Restricting trade by any means harms the economy - it's as simple as that. Protectionist policies belong in the 19th Century.Kermit power said:
I'm not particularly trying to be negative. I'm just questioning a poster with a view that somehow we've got the upper hand in any up coming negotiations with a few simple statistics.
I pointed out the same things to the same poster before the referendum. My advice is to save your energy as they aren't interested.Their view is that Britain will have the upper hand because.
Just because.
Meanwhile in the real world, the EU say we can't even discuss what our options are with them (EEA, EFTA, Norway deal etc.) until we invoke article 50 i.e. only after we commit to leaving will they then tell us if we can have any sort of a deal at all.
Tuna said:
Leins said:
Would Matthias be quite so adamant on that if VAG, BMW, Mercedes, etc were UK companies?
Genuinely I think he would. From a trade perspective, whichever side you're on adding artificial barriers makes your life harder. Restricting trade by any means harms the economy - it's as simple as that. Protectionist policies belong in the 19th Century.ralphrj said:
Meanwhile in the real world, the EU say we can't even discuss what our options are with them (EEA, EFTA, Norway deal etc.) until we invoke article 50 i.e. only after we commit to leaving will they then tell us if we can have any sort of a deal at all.
Actually thats not correct. Trade deals negations cannot be started until after the Uk has exited the EU .Ie after 2 years after article 50. So it will be many many years before we have any trade deal.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff