Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
V8RX7 said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
don4l said:
Well, if you cannot see that $100Bn is bigger than $46Bn, then I cannot help. By your own figures, Germany gains $54Bn.
When did I say that it wasn't?The actual dollar amount is pretty irrelevant, as these things are always measured in percentages anyway. The headlines will be "3% retraction in the economy" or "5% drop in exports to the EU".
It's also beside the point. I notice that you've decided not to comment on the fact that we only buy 16% of the EU's exports, but they buy 45% of ours?
You admit that Germany makes a profit out of us. We make a loss.
Yet you cannot see that Germany wins with the current arrangement.
I'll make a suggestion.
Go to your local corner shop.
Buy something.
This might represent 5% of your weekly spend, but it will only represent 0.001% of the shopkeepers takings.
Does the shopkeeper want your business?
If we stop trading with Germany we both lose 10% of our trade.
If everyone loses 10% of their income it tends to be the poorest who suffer most despite losing the lesser amount.
We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
For these reasons I don't think that there is any chance that the EU will try to exclude us from a free trade area.
As I pointed out earlier, shares in BMW and Mercedes have fallen much further than anything in London. The Spanish market has fallen even further.
Europe's markets are down by about 10%, while the UK's markets are down about 3%.
FredClogs said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
don4l said:
Well, if you cannot see that $100Bn is bigger than $46Bn, then I cannot help. By your own figures, Germany gains $54Bn.
When did I say that it wasn't?The actual dollar amount is pretty irrelevant, as these things are always measured in percentages anyway. The headlines will be "3% retraction in the economy" or "5% drop in exports to the EU".
It's also beside the point. I notice that you've decided not to comment on the fact that we only buy 16% of the EU's exports, but they buy 45% of ours?
You admit that Germany makes a profit out of us. We make a loss.
Yet you cannot see that Germany wins with the current arrangement.
I'll make a suggestion.
Go to your local corner shop.
Buy something.
This might represent 5% of your weekly spend, but it will only represent 0.001% of the shopkeepers takings.
Does the shopkeeper want your business?
If you feel that you want to start up your own business, then please do.
Report back with your success story.
don4l said:
But everyone won't lose 10%.
We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
For these reasons I don't think that there is any chance that the EU will try to exclude us from a free trade area.
As I pointed out earlier, shares in BMW and Mercedes have fallen much further than anything in London. The Spanish market has fallen even further.
Europe's markets are down by about 10%, while the UK's markets are down about 3%.
FTSE 250 was down 7% today with banks and house builders much worse!We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
For these reasons I don't think that there is any chance that the EU will try to exclude us from a free trade area.
As I pointed out earlier, shares in BMW and Mercedes have fallen much further than anything in London. The Spanish market has fallen even further.
Europe's markets are down by about 10%, while the UK's markets are down about 3%.
AJL308 said:
4x4Tyke said:
AJL308 said:
405dogvan said:
Not sure we've had this one yet???
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...
WAY over my paygrade and out of my bulls
t alarm range but these people seem to believe that the PM cannot unilaterally activate Article 50 without some sort of Parliamentary approval!?
Which I cannot imagine they could get??
Of course piddling things like law didn't stop us invading another country so leaving the EU is ezsauce?
Very interesting article. I don't know from what angle you argue against that, to be honest. https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...
WAY over my paygrade and out of my bulls
t alarm range but these people seem to believe that the PM cannot unilaterally activate Article 50 without some sort of Parliamentary approval!?Which I cannot imagine they could get??
Of course piddling things like law didn't stop us invading another country so leaving the EU is ezsauce?
The European Communities Act and the rights which people derive from it is a Statute enacted by Parliament. The RP cannot be used to override that. If the RP were used to action art.50 then it could not be be legally effective as, one way or another, the end result is that the UK would leave the EU and the European Communities Act would cease to have its power.
The reasoning behind this is logical because Parliament is the Sovereign power, not the Monarch. Hence, there is no legal method to undermine, reduce or nullify anything done by Parliament. Purportedly using Art.50 without an Act of Parliament allowing or instructing it is Ultra-Vires and has no force.
If a PM 'invokes' Art.50 without an Act of Parliament then the EU could tell him that it they can't accept it as it had not been done in a manner which is compliant with the first paragraph of Art.50.
Edited by AJL308 on Monday 27th June 20:33
Greg66 said:
don4l said:
Europe's markets are down by about 10%, while the UK's markets are down about 3%.
If you want to know the effect on UK companies, you should look at the FTSE250, not the FTSE100. The FTSE250 is down considerably more than 3%. Tuna said:
The FTSE250, CAC 40 and DAX are all at about the levels they were in late 2014. The FTSE had outperformed the others in the mean time, particularly as mainland Europe was struggling to recover.
Maybe so, but don4l's point is that there has been little movement in the value of UK companies since the referendum result, which he is trying to show by reference to a wrong indicator (though he will probably revert with a denial that that is what his point was, that he didn't use those precise words, he didn't use the wrong indicator, and something else containing the words "strawman" and/or "lie"). don4l said:
But everyone won't lose 10%.
We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
What's more, cars and other manufactured goods made outside the EU could go down. Because we will be outside of the protectionist EU bloc so won't have to impose import tariffs on them. Same goes for food products.We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
thinkofaname said:
What's more, cars and other manufactured goods made outside the EU could go down. Because we will be outside of the protectionist EU bloc so won't have to impose import tariffs on them. Same goes for food products.
The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
That depends on the WTO tarriff doesn't it ... or if negotiating a trade deal with a bunch of known arrogant flouncers is a priority for that other nation. The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
The reason why the German car manufacturers are down isn't due to worries over free trade. That's a given that it will be sorted out.
But German cars for UK people just got a lot more expensive in the long run (or the profits margins just dropped a lot) And with the turmoil in the markets, many people may put off leasing that new Audi or BMW.
But German cars for UK people just got a lot more expensive in the long run (or the profits margins just dropped a lot) And with the turmoil in the markets, many people may put off leasing that new Audi or BMW.
There are 2314 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.
There are 3,467,866 listed as active on the UK companies house register.
There is far too much weight put on the stock market, these companies are the large vested interests that didn't want us to leave the EU.
Most wealth in this country is created by and most people are employed by the companies not listed on the London Stock Exchange.
There are 3,467,866 listed as active on the UK companies house register.
There is far too much weight put on the stock market, these companies are the large vested interests that didn't want us to leave the EU.
Most wealth in this country is created by and most people are employed by the companies not listed on the London Stock Exchange.
mph1977 said:
thinkofaname said:
What's more, cars and other manufactured goods made outside the EU could go down. Because we will be outside of the protectionist EU bloc so won't have to impose import tariffs on them. Same goes for food products.
The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
That depends on the WTO tarriff doesn't it ... or if negotiating a trade deal with a bunch of known arrogant flouncers is a priority for that other nation. The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
thinkofaname said:
don4l said:
But everyone won't lose 10%.
We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
What's more, cars and other manufactured goods made outside the EU could go down. Because we will be outside of the protectionist EU bloc so won't have to impose import tariffs on them. Same goes for food products.We will still buy the same number of cars.
German cars will go up by 10%.
Jaguars won't. So people will buy more Jags.
Minis that are made in this country won't go up.
Skodas made in Eastern Europe will go up.
The import tariffs imposed on these by the EU help EU-based manufacturers and farmers, i.e. Germany and France, a lot more than us, with our service-dominated economy.
we both need a trade deal , when you come up with a solution we will vote on it then we will allow your goods into the UK
tariff free what do you want ?
Edited by powerstroke on Tuesday 28th June 06:50
powerstroke said:
I think but it will never happen!! we should have a bill in the house of parliament to leave the UK then we say to the EU
we both need a trade deal , when you come up with a solution we will vote on it then we will allow your goods into the UK
tariff free what do you want ?
we both need a trade deal , when you come up with a solution we will vote on it then we will allow your goods into the UK
tariff free what do you want ?
Who is this "we" that's going to leave the UK? Are you Scottish?
Don't know about Johnson stting himself but as things are panning out, with lots of unintended consequences raising their heads, I am.
We are living through a period that will be written about extensively in the future. The exit reminds me of the histories of the civil wars, not to mention WWI, when at any time those with authority could have stepped in to stop the steady progress to disaster but they chose not to. The question that always crosses my mind is why they didn't act. Students in the future will ask why the voters decided to give so much power to Sturgeon. They must have known, they will say, that she would use it for her own ends.
And why, they might wonder, did the government think that the EU would do anything other than what is best for them. They have the authority.
In history lessons in this country the students will be bemused. In European universities, they'll have a laugh.
The EU will ensure that our exit costs us. They will punish us because it will want to discourage others from doing the same. The import/export argument is inconsequential. What would really cost the EU is for the UK to get a good deal. So we won't. We will be told what to do.
There is a suggestion that there will be no talks before we invoke Article 50. That is wrong. The heads of the European states are talking now, and they are deciding what scraps to let us have.
tting himself but as things are panning out, with lots of unintended consequences raising their heads, I am.We are living through a period that will be written about extensively in the future. The exit reminds me of the histories of the civil wars, not to mention WWI, when at any time those with authority could have stepped in to stop the steady progress to disaster but they chose not to. The question that always crosses my mind is why they didn't act. Students in the future will ask why the voters decided to give so much power to Sturgeon. They must have known, they will say, that she would use it for her own ends.
And why, they might wonder, did the government think that the EU would do anything other than what is best for them. They have the authority.
In history lessons in this country the students will be bemused. In European universities, they'll have a laugh.
The EU will ensure that our exit costs us. They will punish us because it will want to discourage others from doing the same. The import/export argument is inconsequential. What would really cost the EU is for the UK to get a good deal. So we won't. We will be told what to do.
There is a suggestion that there will be no talks before we invoke Article 50. That is wrong. The heads of the European states are talking now, and they are deciding what scraps to let us have.
Derek Smith said:
There is a suggestion that there will be no talks before we invoke Article 50. That is wrong. The heads of the European states are talking now, and they are deciding what scraps to let us have.
There is a whole world outside the EU, Derek. The Eurocrats don't control that or our access to it.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff