Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
Is anyone counting how many times Cameron has said "that'll be for the next PM to decide" in today's parliamentary session? He's really cranking it up!
That is aimed fair and square at Junker, Schulz and Tusk.Kermit power said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
Is anyone counting how many times Cameron has said "that'll be for the next PM to decide" in today's parliamentary session? He's really cranking it up!
That is aimed fair and square at Junker, Schulz and Tusk.don4l said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
We have a huge trade imbalance with Germany. We take £20Bn of their cars, or a fifth of total car production. We export £10Bn to them.
UK total exports $472Bn, of which $46.5Bn goes to Germany, so roughly 10% of our total exports.
Germany total exports $1,140Bn, of which $100Bn comes to the UK, so slightly less than 10% of their total exports.
Yes, Germany exports more to us than we do to them, but as a percentage of each country's exports, very similar.
As for the EU as a whole, I've just double-checked, and we don't buy 10% of their exports, it's actually 16%, sorry.
Again, that's 16% which of course the EU doesn't want to lose, but they're still gambling potentially 16% of their export market whereas we're gambling 45% of ours.
The question remains. Why on earth does anyone think that we're in the stronger bargaining position?
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
We have a huge trade imbalance with Germany. We take £20Bn of their cars, or a fifth of total car production. We export £10Bn to them.
BMW shares are down 12% since Friday morning. Volkswagen are down 11%.
The CAC40 in Paris is also down 11%. The Spanist stock market is down 13%.
The FTSE 100 is down 5%.
The markets are saying very clearly that the consequences are much more severe for the rest of Europe.
It is fantastic that Cameron isn't going too quickly, because negotiations cannot start until his successor is in place. Meanwhile, Junker et al have time to reflect on their position.
I was reading the Spanish newspaper earlier. They are desperate for a compromise.
There is a very real fear in Europe at the moment. We should use this to our advantage.
For the moment, my strategy would be to suggest that no negotiations were necessary. WTO option would suit us very nicely indeed.
Another 10% wiped off their stock markets would bring them to their senses.
So, we do not need to even consider the Norway option.
We need to play hardball. We have a £65Bn upper hand.
babatunde said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
We have a huge trade imbalance with Germany. We take £20Bn of their cars, or a fifth of total car production. We export £10Bn to them.
BMW shares are down 12% since Friday morning. Volkswagen are down 11%.
The CAC40 in Paris is also down 11%. The Spanist stock market is down 13%.
The FTSE 100 is down 5%.
The markets are saying very clearly that the consequences are much more severe for the rest of Europe.
It is fantastic that Cameron isn't going too quickly, because negotiations cannot start until his successor is in place. Meanwhile, Junker et al have time to reflect on their position.
I was reading the Spanish newspaper earlier. They are desperate for a compromise.
There is a very real fear in Europe at the moment. We should use this to our advantage.
For the moment, my strategy would be to suggest that no negotiations were necessary. WTO option would suit us very nicely indeed.
Another 10% wiped off their stock markets would bring them to their senses.
So, we do not need to even consider the Norway option.
We need to play hardball. We have a £65Bn upper hand.
babatunde said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
We have a huge trade imbalance with Germany. We take £20Bn of their cars, or a fifth of total car production. We export £10Bn to them.
BMW shares are down 12% since Friday morning. Volkswagen are down 11%.
The CAC40 in Paris is also down 11%. The Spanist stock market is down 13%.
The FTSE 100 is down 5%.
The markets are saying very clearly that the consequences are much more severe for the rest of Europe.
It is fantastic that Cameron isn't going too quickly, because negotiations cannot start until his successor is in place. Meanwhile, Junker et al have time to reflect on their position.
I was reading the Spanish newspaper earlier. They are desperate for a compromise.
There is a very real fear in Europe at the moment. We should use this to our advantage.
For the moment, my strategy would be to suggest that no negotiations were necessary. WTO option would suit us very nicely indeed.
Another 10% wiped off their stock markets would bring them to their senses.
So, we do not need to even consider the Norway option.
We need to play hardball. We have a £65Bn upper hand.
You're right of course, but surely the sensible thing for all countries would be to reach an acceptable compromise which ensured the status quo, give or take, for trading?
I appreciate that they don't want to encourage more members to leave, by giving in to us, but are those members going to be persuaded to stay willingly if they see the UK persecuted, and trade damaged in all areas.
Surely the politicians, from whichever country or institution, aren't that stupid? Or are they?
vonuber said:
s1962a said:
Interesting.
The Leave campaign went quiet about Norway because it has free movement of labour as part of it's negotiation with the EU. That'll go down well here!
It makes sense though. We remain part of the free trade area, keep passporting rights etc.The Leave campaign went quiet about Norway because it has free movement of labour as part of it's negotiation with the EU. That'll go down well here!
We will have to comply with EU regs to sell stuff to them anyway.
It's already being hinted at - so basically nothing will change. How droll.
s1962a said:
I think this is going to be a very long and agonizing process for both sides. 
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/br...
s1962a said:
At least someone is being decisive. Regardless of what Cameron thinks he should or shouldn't do at the noment he and his party are completely letting down the country they should be serving.405dogvan said:
It's existence enables trade which would otherwise be virtually impossible within the member countries - what happens when you remove it NO-ONE knows and I really doub anyone wants to put their neck on finding out!?
What? So European countries didn't trade with each other before the EU?s1962a said:
That is a particularly stupid move. And it will come back to bite Merkel on the arse.s2art said:
s1962a said:
That is a particularly stupid move. And it will come back to bite Merkel on the arse.Spend as much time as we need to get our negotiating team and positions in order, and then trigger it.
European markets seem to be taking a bigger hit than ours at the moment.. Keep seeing how the situation progresses.
Interesting to see some of the back tracking in the Guardian article too. I imagine a few people have had a talking to over the weekend. Fair play on that, you don't want to show your hand too early. It won't stop Merkel taking a hiding at home if the negotiations go badly though.
s1962a said:
That may be what they say, but as we know from Cameron's negotiations prior to calling the referendum, what EU leaders tell us with regards to negotiations and what actually happens are two very different things.405dogvan said:
Not sure we've had this one yet???
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...
WAY over my paygrade and out of my bulls
t alarm range but these people seem to believe that the PM cannot unilaterally activate Article 50 without some sort of Parliamentary approval!?
Which I cannot imagine they could get??
Of course piddling things like law didn't stop us invading another country so leaving the EU is ezsauce?
Very interesting article. I don't know from what angle you argue against that, to be honest. https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...
WAY over my paygrade and out of my bulls
t alarm range but these people seem to believe that the PM cannot unilaterally activate Article 50 without some sort of Parliamentary approval!?Which I cannot imagine they could get??
Of course piddling things like law didn't stop us invading another country so leaving the EU is ezsauce?
don4l said:
I was reading the Spanish newspaper earlier. They are desperate for a compromise.
Could you put up a link, please? The Spanish do actually have more than one newspaper, and I've just scanned the websites of El Pais and El Mundo, but there wasn't anything immediately obvious, what with them being fairly preoccupied with their own election results! 
No need to provide a translation.
Kermit power said:
don4l said:
Kermit power said:
We take something like 8% of Germany's exports, and they take something like 10% of ours, so already there, we've got negotiating parity at best, but what you're failing to take into account is the whole reason why so many people voted to leave the EU in the first place.
It's a bloody great big collective!
We might be roughly at parity with some individual countries in the EU when it comes to negotiating, but we don't negotiate with individual countries, we negotiate with the whole group. They take 45% of our exports, whereas we take less than 10% of ours.
How on earth do you think that puts us in the stronger negotiating position????
That's before you consider the possibility of the EU negotiators deliberately taking a bit of a hit on their own side to give us a really crap deal, just to encourage other member states' populations to think twice about having their own leave campaigns.
We have a huge trade imbalance with Germany. We take £20Bn of their cars, or a fifth of total car production. We export £10Bn to them.
UK total exports $472Bn, of which $46.5Bn goes to Germany, so roughly 10% of our total exports.
Germany total exports $1,140Bn, of which $100Bn comes to the UK, so slightly less than 10% of their total exports.
Yes, Germany exports more to us than we do to them, but as a percentage of each country's exports, very similar.
As for the EU as a whole, I've just double-checked, and we don't buy 10% of their exports, it's actually 16%, sorry.
Again, that's 16% which of course the EU doesn't want to lose, but they're still gambling potentially 16% of their export market whereas we're gambling 45% of ours.
The question remains. Why on earth does anyone think that we're in the stronger bargaining position?
s2art said:
s1962a said:
That is a particularly stupid move. And it will come back to bite Merkel on the arse.don4l said:
Well, if you cannot see that $100Bn is bigger than $46Bn, then I cannot help. By your own figures, Germany gains $54Bn.
When did I say that it wasn't?The actual dollar amount is pretty irrelevant, as these things are always measured in percentages anyway. The headlines will be "3% retraction in the economy" or "5% drop in exports to the EU".
It's also beside the point. I notice that you've decided not to comment on the fact that we only buy 16% of the EU's exports, but they buy 45% of ours?
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