Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
vonuber said:
eharding said:
I think you'll find whilst Don was born Irish, he was raised as a Cockney. I think we'll have to blame to sound of Bow Bells for him being such a Cockney Winker.
So why was he yammering on about where people's grandparents are from?don4l said:
Give us your analysis of the current stock market situation.
Last Friday at about 7:45, I advised people to buy shares. Anyone who took my advice could have made(an average) 6% in 8.5 hours.
It rather depends on which shares you bought. RBS was 180p when the markets opened on Friday, compared to 250p the evening before. The 'dead cat bounce' took it back to 210 during the course of the day. It fell as low as 153p yesterday and closed at 173p today. Last Friday at about 7:45, I advised people to buy shares. Anyone who took my advice could have made(an average) 6% in 8.5 hours.
If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
Elysium said:
It rather depends on which shares you bought. RBS was 180p when the markets opened on Friday, compared to 250p the evening before. The 'dead cat bounce' took it back to 210 during the course of the day. It fell as low as 153p yesterday and closed at 173p today.
If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
Probably the best summation of the situation at present I have read.If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
vonuber said:
Elysium said:
It rather depends on which shares you bought. RBS was 180p when the markets opened on Friday, compared to 250p the evening before. The 'dead cat bounce' took it back to 210 during the course of the day. It fell as low as 153p yesterday and closed at 173p today.
If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
Probably the best summation of the situation at present I have read.If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
Just the way you like it.
Elysium said:
It rather depends on which shares you bought. RBS was 180p when the markets opened on Friday, compared to 250p the evening before. The 'dead cat bounce' took it back to 210 during the course of the day. It fell as low as 153p yesterday and closed at 173p today.
If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
I really hope that there is a third way, which truly could be a resounding victory for the UK.If your timing was perfect you could have made money on Friday. Doubtless some people did. I expect a lot more money has been made by shorting shares in the last few days.
Businesses exposed to Brexit (banks and housebuilders so far) have been hit hard. Commercial property values are already down and availability of corporate finance is uncertain.
I think it would have been far worse if it were not for the following:
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
We are in a holding pattern now and the next big event will be the selection of the next PM.
So in summary, our economy is already hemorrhaging money and we will almost certainly waste many years worth of 'theoretical' EU savings. There will be no new hospitals and no additional cancer drugs. Best case, we will drop this nonsense and go on as we were, a member of the EU, with voting rights and a greater level of control of our destiny than the rest of the group (i.e. outside schengen).
Worst case, we will end up like Norway, paying the same as before (or more) for access to the common market, bound largely by the same rules for free movement and legislation of trade, but with no voting rights.
In time, this entire debacle will give us a new definition for a pyrrhic victory
If - and it's a monumentally big if - Marine Le Pen manages to win the French Presidential election next year, then I could see the EU in its current form imploding overnight.
The dream scenario if that does come to pass is that we've not yet triggered article 50 and can then offer to step up and provide a sensible, Anglo-Saxon solution to the problem. Even if we have already pressed the button, we won't actually be out of the EU by then, so it should still be relatively easy to backtrack, even if only by way of the other EU leaders granting the UK a 5,000 year extension on departure negotiations.
///ajd said:
PorkInsider said:
I was in a meeting yesterday at an FTSE 250 company, regarding some business we are (were?) doing with them (professional services) related to their ongoing expansion.
Their CFO was present, which wasn't at all expected, and the overriding theme was one of any UK investment now being on hold. Meanwhile they're continuing their expansion and investment in other EU countries.
If I hadn't been there and seen it myself I would think that whoever was typing this post was just bulls
tting, trying to reinforce the remainers' view that we're royally screwed.
Unfortunately that's not the case. It's simple fact.
It's also a very easy decision for the company to make. Their products are sold across the EU (you'll know the brands very well) and across the portfolio the production is split over 5 manufacturing locations, so it's a simple of case of looking at where's best for a new production capability based upon X,Y and Z, where none of those factors is whether the location is in the EU or not.
Now that they have Brexit to throw into the mix, it's easier to rule out the UK as a potential location as there's a risk.
It's not a difficult decision for them; it's a very obvious one. I can't imagine many sane people would not do the same thing.
This is a company with market cap' sitting at around £0.5bn so not massive, but don't think for a minute that these sorts of decisions aren't being made right now in companies of all sizes.
We'll only see it on the news if it's a major financial institution or someone like Nissan, JLR or ARM cutting investment, but be assured it's happening.
How depressing.Their CFO was present, which wasn't at all expected, and the overriding theme was one of any UK investment now being on hold. Meanwhile they're continuing their expansion and investment in other EU countries.
If I hadn't been there and seen it myself I would think that whoever was typing this post was just bulls
tting, trying to reinforce the remainers' view that we're royally screwed.Unfortunately that's not the case. It's simple fact.
It's also a very easy decision for the company to make. Their products are sold across the EU (you'll know the brands very well) and across the portfolio the production is split over 5 manufacturing locations, so it's a simple of case of looking at where's best for a new production capability based upon X,Y and Z, where none of those factors is whether the location is in the EU or not.
Now that they have Brexit to throw into the mix, it's easier to rule out the UK as a potential location as there's a risk.
It's not a difficult decision for them; it's a very obvious one. I can't imagine many sane people would not do the same thing.
This is a company with market cap' sitting at around £0.5bn so not massive, but don't think for a minute that these sorts of decisions aren't being made right now in companies of all sizes.
We'll only see it on the news if it's a major financial institution or someone like Nissan, JLR or ARM cutting investment, but be assured it's happening.
I recall posting such concerns aling with others but they were dismissed by brexiters "who knew better" and would brand you a bedwetter or worse.
It is alarming how quickly we have totally fcked our economy - for years.
Economists views and research about Brexit where widely publicized, most people knew this was economically high risk but opted to vote out anyway. While some people where talking about there being no or little impact those people tended not to be experts on what they where speaking about or diverged significantly from the consensus view of those in their field.
No one had genuine reason to expect that the prevailing consensus of a lower per capita income or taxation from a Brexit would likely prove untrue, the UK was always likely to be worse off financially. People voted for Brexit despite these issues being raised because they had fears about immigration trends or resented the UKs financial contributions or objected to the agreements reached within the bloc.
While I am aware of the frustration from a business perspective, as this will be a major setback for many businesses, this is a democratic decision by the people of Britain. Some businesses will need to relocate or resize or change their investment/growth strategy but there is no reason to expect the government will U-turn on Brexit.
whoami said:
Nice and negative.
Just the way you like it.
Ok, so... now we've got your POV out of the way, do you have anything to contradict the assertion that the list of things (below) mitigated the impact (which has generally been negative, unless you want to deny that as well) of a leave vote on the economy and Britain as a whole? Just the way you like it.
Copied the list to get it out of the quote pyramid. Ta Elysium.
1. Cameron's resignation and the creation of 3 months grace before anyone pushes the exit button.
2. Carneys announcement that the BOE has a £250bn war chest (although if we need to use this we will have thrown away 50 years worth of EU payments)
3. The realisation that the leave campaign has no plan and is backtracking from any situation that would see us exit the common market
4. Confirmation that an act of parliament will be required before any PM can give notice under Article 50.
I mean, you could just leave it with your initial statement, which is great, but opinions are like a
holes. Reasoned opinions aren't - I would like to know peoples' reasoned opinions.whoami said:
Nice and negative.
Just the way you like it.
Don't get this- if I am wrong amd we sudden magically become a bigger economy than we were with bread and dripping all round then it's a great resilt for me obviously. Just the way you like it.
If I am right i get tbe (rather pointless) satisfaction of some 'i told you so'.
It's not negative it's realistic- it's only negative if you have your head in the sand and think that all is needed is to roll your sleeves up and get on with 'it', whatever 'it' is. But then as Gove said, people have had enough of experts.. like doctors.. engineers.. brain surgeons..
mph1977 said:
don4l said:
If you don't like being labelled a bedwetter, then stop suggesting that Europe's most successful economy is fcked.
By that measure, surely then the UK should have moved upwards in the list of largest economies instead of falling behind the cheese eating surrender monkeys ?The investment decisions that are on hold are exceptionally worrying.
The full scale of the brexit fallacy is being revealed.
The worst irony is the continual crowing about global trade deals one minute, then the chest thumping about buying british the next.
don4l said:
You are having a laugh, aren't you?
Or are you engaging in more bedwetting?
If you don't like being labelled a bedwetter, then stop suggesting that Europe's most successful economy is fcked.
I'm wondering if you lot are just trolling me.
WHo has said Germany's economy is fOr are you engaging in more bedwetting?
If you don't like being labelled a bedwetter, then stop suggesting that Europe's most successful economy is fcked.
I'm wondering if you lot are just trolling me.
ked?desolate said:
don4l said:
You are having a laugh, aren't you?
Or are you engaging in more bedwetting?
If you don't like being labelled a bedwetter, then stop suggesting that Europe's most successful economy is fcked.
I'm wondering if you lot are just trolling me.
WHo has said Germany's economy is fOr are you engaging in more bedwetting?
If you don't like being labelled a bedwetter, then stop suggesting that Europe's most successful economy is fcked.
I'm wondering if you lot are just trolling me.
ked?
I think Don did. Just before he shat the bed.
Kermit power said:
I really hope that there is a third way, which truly could be a resounding victory for the UK.
If - and it's a monumentally big if - Marine Le Pen manages to win the French Presidential election next year, then I could see the EU in its current form imploding overnight.
The dream scenario if that does come to pass is that we've not yet triggered article 50 and can then offer to step up and provide a sensible, Anglo-Saxon solution to the problem. Even if we have already pressed the button, we won't actually be out of the EU by then, so it should still be relatively easy to backtrack, even if only by way of the other EU leaders granting the UK a 5,000 year extension on departure negotiations.
Article 50 is a trapdoor. Once invoked there is no mechanism to backtrack. If - and it's a monumentally big if - Marine Le Pen manages to win the French Presidential election next year, then I could see the EU in its current form imploding overnight.
The dream scenario if that does come to pass is that we've not yet triggered article 50 and can then offer to step up and provide a sensible, Anglo-Saxon solution to the problem. Even if we have already pressed the button, we won't actually be out of the EU by then, so it should still be relatively easy to backtrack, even if only by way of the other EU leaders granting the UK a 5,000 year extension on departure negotiations.
vonuber said:
whoami said:
Nice and negative.
Just the way you like it.
Don't get this- if I am wrong amd we sudden magically become a bigger economy than we were with bread and dripping all round then it's a great resilt for me obviously. Just the way you like it.
If I am right i get tbe (rather pointless) satisfaction of some 'i told you so'.
It's not negative it's realistic- it's only negative if you have your head in the sand and think that all is needed is to roll your sleeves up and get on with 'it', whatever 'it' is. But then as Gove said, people have had enough of experts.. like doctors.. engineers.. brain surgeons..
If the EU wants to screw us over all they need do is nothing.
I think they are all stting themselves.
They have no way to implement a Brexit and deliver what they claimed it would deliver. Backtracks I've heard so far include:
1) can't have FTA and not free movement
2) 350 million a day for the NHS was misleading
3) no drop in immigration
4) taxes up, spending down
Imagine PM BJ's phone call to the EU:
EU: Allo, Allo. Zis ees the EU. Who ees thees?
BJ: Hello old chap. My name is Boris. I'm thinking about invoking Article 50 but I'd like to know the implications of doing so before I do it. I was wondering if you'd be a jolly good fellow and explain it to me.
EU: You leave ze EU
BJ: Yes, yes I know that my old chum. What I mean is what does that actually mean? You know, in terms of free trade and freedom of movement and stuff.
EU: well....it means you leave ze EU.
BJ: I understand that bit. Come on, how about a hint? Just a tiny clue? How about I pop over with some scones and jam and we have a chat about it?
EU: I 'ave already told you. It means you leave ze EU. If you want to find out what zat means zen invoke Article 50. Or are you, as zey say, chicken?
BJ: I say. Steady on old chap. No need to get personal. Bloody foreigner, not telling me how to run my country. <click>
EU person 2 to EU person: Oo vas zat?
EU person: Boris.
EU person 2: Again!! Next time Ah am going to tell eem Ah will invoke Article fking 50 for eem. fking 'ell. Ah am fed up with thees sheet.
tting themselves.They have no way to implement a Brexit and deliver what they claimed it would deliver. Backtracks I've heard so far include:
1) can't have FTA and not free movement
2) 350 million a day for the NHS was misleading
3) no drop in immigration
4) taxes up, spending down
Imagine PM BJ's phone call to the EU:
EU: Allo, Allo. Zis ees the EU. Who ees thees?
BJ: Hello old chap. My name is Boris. I'm thinking about invoking Article 50 but I'd like to know the implications of doing so before I do it. I was wondering if you'd be a jolly good fellow and explain it to me.
EU: You leave ze EU
BJ: Yes, yes I know that my old chum. What I mean is what does that actually mean? You know, in terms of free trade and freedom of movement and stuff.
EU: well....it means you leave ze EU.
BJ: I understand that bit. Come on, how about a hint? Just a tiny clue? How about I pop over with some scones and jam and we have a chat about it?
EU: I 'ave already told you. It means you leave ze EU. If you want to find out what zat means zen invoke Article 50. Or are you, as zey say, chicken?
BJ: I say. Steady on old chap. No need to get personal. Bloody foreigner, not telling me how to run my country. <click>
EU person 2 to EU person: Oo vas zat?
EU person: Boris.
EU person 2: Again!! Next time Ah am going to tell eem Ah will invoke Article f
king 50 for eem. fking 'ell. Ah am fed up with thees sheet.lostkiwi said:
vonuber said:
whoami said:
Nice and negative.
Just the way you like it.
Don't get this- if I am wrong amd we sudden magically become a bigger economy than we were with bread and dripping all round then it's a great resilt for me obviously. Just the way you like it.
If I am right i get tbe (rather pointless) satisfaction of some 'i told you so'.
It's not negative it's realistic- it's only negative if you have your head in the sand and think that all is needed is to roll your sleeves up and get on with 'it', whatever 'it' is. But then as Gove said, people have had enough of experts.. like doctors.. engineers.. brain surgeons..
If the EU wants to screw us over all they need do is nothing.
lostkiwi said:
Kermit power said:
I really hope that there is a third way, which truly could be a resounding victory for the UK.
If - and it's a monumentally big if - Marine Le Pen manages to win the French Presidential election next year, then I could see the EU in its current form imploding overnight.
The dream scenario if that does come to pass is that we've not yet triggered article 50 and can then offer to step up and provide a sensible, Anglo-Saxon solution to the problem. Even if we have already pressed the button, we won't actually be out of the EU by then, so it should still be relatively easy to backtrack, even if only by way of the other EU leaders granting the UK a 5,000 year extension on departure negotiations.
Article 50 is a trapdoor. Once invoked there is no mechanism to backtrack. If - and it's a monumentally big if - Marine Le Pen manages to win the French Presidential election next year, then I could see the EU in its current form imploding overnight.
The dream scenario if that does come to pass is that we've not yet triggered article 50 and can then offer to step up and provide a sensible, Anglo-Saxon solution to the problem. Even if we have already pressed the button, we won't actually be out of the EU by then, so it should still be relatively easy to backtrack, even if only by way of the other EU leaders granting the UK a 5,000 year extension on departure negotiations.
lostkiwi said:
Actually the worst case is understated. If after 2 years negotiation from A50 being invoked we have no agreement were out and under WTO rules.
If the EU wants to screw us over all they need do is nothing.
Someone took a look at that. Roughly speaking, membership of the EU free trade area is estimated to cost us about 8 billion a year. The average WTO tariff of 3% on our exports would 'cost' us 4 billion. If the EU wants to screw us over all they need do is nothing.
The fact is that the 'free trade' area is not free. It costs us money to be part of (Boris' famous £350 million a week). Though that's not written up as a tax on our exports, that's what it effectively is. In addition, it further restricts our ability to export to places like China ($26 billion a year of our exports currently).
So, for sure the EU could try to screw us over, and it would mean that the promise of better funding to the NHS would probably suffer, but on the whole they're not in some unique bargaining position to force us into submission.
I'm still trying to figure out the plunge of building companies. Rumours of the London market having ground to a halt have been going round for a few months and this may be the correction that was overdue. At the same time, is it purely sentiment that's damaging their value? All the building sites I pass on the way to work are still in full flow and people keep saying how much they need their project to complete so they can move in or get on with their business.
I'm trying to make sense of it all. This is a handy page if you wonder where our exports go: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff