Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
kurt535 said:
Tuna, my pal's partner works in Soc Gen treasuries. Unless someone here can challenge me with other news, they have a plan they are initiating for returning to the EU. He is gutted!
A plan for returning (not actually leaving), by pretending the last 6 months was all a dream, Dallas style?Tuna said:
RYH64E said:
Nonsense, the EU will be saying 'Come to Frankfurt/Paris/Dublin, you'll be very welcome, what can we do to help you relocate?'.
There's a difference between welcoming people to relocate - every nation does that - and ending financial services passporting. The first is healthy competition, the second would be the most disastrous example of 'pulling up the drawbridge' in modern times. More so than the UK deciding to renegotiate trading terms.Germany and France especially have had designs on our financial services sector for a long time, we've now given them the perfect opportunity to take it, why would they refuse to do so?
kurt535 said:
Tuna, my pal's partner works in Soc Gen treasuries. Unless someone here can challenge me with other news, they have a plan they are initiating for returning to the EU. He is gutted!
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
Tuna said:
kurt535 said:
Tuna, my pal's partner works in Soc Gen treasuries. Unless someone here can challenge me with other news, they have a plan they are initiating for returning to the EU. He is gutted!
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
Tuna said:
Mrr T said:
EU financial services passporting?
It keeps being raised. But it would cause utter chaos to take passporting away from the UK. If the EU attempt to force financial services to relocate, global businesses would be thrown into the sort of chaos that makes the current situation look like a holiday. A lot of global businesses would be pretty upset by that and I imagine will be lobbying the EU not to blow the lifeboats out of the water.1. Even if the EU wanted to change the regulations changing regulations takes 3/4 years.
2. The rEU will be laughing its socks off as thousands of job (my guess is 400/500k) move from the UK to the rEU.
It will not be chaos because financial services companies will already be making plans. The fact is even if we do exit via the EEA/EFTA many of these jobs will be lost as the companies cannot wait for any final decision.
Tuna said:
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.
If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
You seem to be confused by financial services passporting. It is only available to countries in the EEA and Switzerland. The EU does not allow any other countries to sell financial services into the EU unless they are regulated in the EU. This will change but these changes are some way off.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
Tuna said:
One position to take would be:
We choose to impose no tariffs on goods imported to the UK. That benefits us - stuff is cheaper. The reason we import is because someone somewhere else in the world can make something cheaper than we can make it ourselves.
On stuff we export, we show the tariffs that the EU chooses to impose as an 'effective tax rate'. Anyone exporting to the EU from the UK must show that as a line item on the bill. So anyone buying UK goods in the EU can see that the higher price they pay is due to their own government's tariffs.
Now, companies can move abroad if they choose, but it doesn't make goods more expensive for us (we impose no tariffs) and if they can manufacture cheaper elsewhere it benefits us further (cheaper stuff). Yes, I know they could just all move abroad, but it turns out that they don't - for lots of reasons - and an economically active country is an attractive place to run a business.
The end result is we look like global businessmen and the EU looks like idiots for imposing tariffs. How well will it go down in Europe if it's clear that the EU is making it more expensive to buy things? "Ah yes, but we are punishing the UK, by making it cost more to buy their Whiskey!"
It doesn't benefit us at all to engage in a tariff war. We want to make stuff cheaper, and we want to make doing business within the UK attractive. The EU can punish us, but it has no control over how we trade with the rest of the world, so it's actually a minority player in our overall economy. As a net importer, the tariffs we impose are the larger component of the 'cost', and we control those (and can choose to eliminate them).
Thanks for this - some interesting debate going on. We choose to impose no tariffs on goods imported to the UK. That benefits us - stuff is cheaper. The reason we import is because someone somewhere else in the world can make something cheaper than we can make it ourselves.
On stuff we export, we show the tariffs that the EU chooses to impose as an 'effective tax rate'. Anyone exporting to the EU from the UK must show that as a line item on the bill. So anyone buying UK goods in the EU can see that the higher price they pay is due to their own government's tariffs.
Now, companies can move abroad if they choose, but it doesn't make goods more expensive for us (we impose no tariffs) and if they can manufacture cheaper elsewhere it benefits us further (cheaper stuff). Yes, I know they could just all move abroad, but it turns out that they don't - for lots of reasons - and an economically active country is an attractive place to run a business.
The end result is we look like global businessmen and the EU looks like idiots for imposing tariffs. How well will it go down in Europe if it's clear that the EU is making it more expensive to buy things? "Ah yes, but we are punishing the UK, by making it cost more to buy their Whiskey!"
It doesn't benefit us at all to engage in a tariff war. We want to make stuff cheaper, and we want to make doing business within the UK attractive. The EU can punish us, but it has no control over how we trade with the rest of the world, so it's actually a minority player in our overall economy. As a net importer, the tariffs we impose are the larger component of the 'cost', and we control those (and can choose to eliminate them).
At the moment we don't have a massive manufacturing base, and if as in bold, they move abroad, into the EU - then they will have no Tariffs as they are manufacturing in the EU. So they move, and we are not imposing tariffs on the stuff they are no producing in the EU.
Would that not lead to loss of jobs, higher unemployment, reduction in GDP??
This is the bit I'm struggling with - why would it be mad for the UK to impose Tariffs, if the EU do the same? Some level of protection should be offered to what is here already, and the gvt would then need to create a plan to attract more businesses. Lets actually make more stuff, to balance the economy, either for ourselves, the EU or the world. Deregulation, lower corp tax - the bits to encourage business. Surely we need to attract companies that are here, to stay and new ones to come to the UK, by being able to react fast to a change in circumstances. That is the one benefit of not being in the EU - speedy decision making. Waving goodbye to anything being built here would seem mad.
What I'm trying to understand is (without a major recession) can the UK market alone create a enough demand for manufacturers that are here already - and then encourage others to arrive? Would JL see a huge opportunity to eat a big chunk of Merc/Audi/BMW market share - and would be enough to cope with the drop in Europe?
This could have a very un-conservative effect - the UK needs to protect the UK industry a bit and keep the investment coming in by buying British - at least in the short term. If we don't the deficit will just keep growing, and that can't be good.
The EU is all about negotiation (even when they pretend it isn't), so perhaps a deal a long the lines of; EU imposes tariffs on UK good's of 6%, but allows financial passporting to carry on. The UK agrees to impose tariffs of 3%. As there is a deficit in the UK the government could then use the 3% raised as a rebate to allow the businesses here to offset the 6% tariffs as they export, allowing the basic price to be lower, so that when the tariff is imposed the net cost remains the same. That would at least show that Tariffs have been imposed - and would be a warning to a non deficit country of the consequences of leaving the EU. Saves face for all involved.
RYH64E said:
Tuna said:
kurt535 said:
Tuna, my pal's partner works in Soc Gen treasuries. Unless someone here can challenge me with other news, they have a plan they are initiating for returning to the EU. He is gutted!
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
RYH64E said:
Tuna said:
kurt535 said:
Tuna, my pal's partner works in Soc Gen treasuries. Unless someone here can challenge me with other news, they have a plan they are initiating for returning to the EU. He is gutted!
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
every thing is in turmoil, can anybody tell what is going to happen with the EU, would it not be prudent to wait and see how it pans out instead of jumping when the results of the negotiations are complete and incurring all the extra cost and upheaval, this to me indicates that they are not only due to the brexit.
Mrr T said:
Tuna said:
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.
If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
You seem to be confused by financial services passporting. It is only available to countries in the EEA and Switzerland. The EU does not allow any other countries to sell financial services into the EU unless they are regulated in the EU. This will change but these changes are some way off.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
to post this link to an article covering this point.'Business as usual' for City banks if UK left the EU London-based banks would still have access to European financial markets, according to a new report.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
This isn't certain either - it demonstrates the uncertainty quite well.
Mrr T said:
Tuna said:
Mrr T said:
EU financial services passporting?
It keeps being raised. But it would cause utter chaos to take passporting away from the UK. If the EU attempt to force financial services to relocate, global businesses would be thrown into the sort of chaos that makes the current situation look like a holiday. A lot of global businesses would be pretty upset by that and I imagine will be lobbying the EU not to blow the lifeboats out of the water.1. Even if the EU wanted to change the regulations changing regulations takes 3/4 years.
2. The rEU will be laughing its socks off as thousands of job (my guess is 400/500k) move from the UK to the rEU.
It will not be chaos because financial services companies will already be making plans. The fact is even if we do exit via the EEA/EFTA many of these jobs will be lost as the companies cannot wait for any final decision.
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
Stephen Crabb saying some sensible things so far, I think
"was that we'll take the risks but we want control back," he says, adding that the job now is to respect and implement that"
hits the nail on the head.
From BBC
Crabb - I'm not afraid to be the underdog
Posted at
11:41
Put to him that he might not be considered a household name, Stephen Crabb says: "There are different ways that you can become a household name. I'm doing it the right way, hopefully."
He says he doesn't regret backing the PM and campaigning for a Remain vote, saying it was right for the government to warn about the impact of leaving the EU.
"Those risks were real but the decision that the British people took... was that we'll take the risks but we want control back," he says, adding that the job now is to respect and implement that.
Following a question from BBC Newsnight's Nick Watt, Mr Crabb says he's not afraid of being the "underdog".
I think there is space in this leadership campaign for not just a coronation, not even for just a two-horse race. We've got to get past this Boris v stop Boris dichotomy. I think there's enough room there for distinctive voices, people with something unique to bring and that is what I am intending to do in my bid for leadership."
"was that we'll take the risks but we want control back," he says, adding that the job now is to respect and implement that"
hits the nail on the head.
From BBC
Crabb - I'm not afraid to be the underdog
Posted at
11:41
Put to him that he might not be considered a household name, Stephen Crabb says: "There are different ways that you can become a household name. I'm doing it the right way, hopefully."
He says he doesn't regret backing the PM and campaigning for a Remain vote, saying it was right for the government to warn about the impact of leaving the EU.
"Those risks were real but the decision that the British people took... was that we'll take the risks but we want control back," he says, adding that the job now is to respect and implement that.
Following a question from BBC Newsnight's Nick Watt, Mr Crabb says he's not afraid of being the "underdog".
I think there is space in this leadership campaign for not just a coronation, not even for just a two-horse race. We've got to get past this Boris v stop Boris dichotomy. I think there's enough room there for distinctive voices, people with something unique to bring and that is what I am intending to do in my bid for leadership."
lostkiwi said:
don4l said:
vonuber said:
don4l said:
You'd like me to bugger off back to Ireland? 
Are there any other foreigners that you would like to send home?
I must say that I enjoyed your post. I don't have an Irish passport. Like you, I have a European Union passport (for the moment).
No i said you could if you wanted to - for some reason I thought you were an Irish citizen. Clearly I was mistaken.Are there any other foreigners that you would like to send home?
I must say that I enjoyed your post. I don't have an Irish passport. Like you, I have a European Union passport (for the moment).
Top marks!
Didn't you say that you were offended?
I burst out laughing when I saw vonuber's post.
Half of you are telling me that I must be racist for wanting to leave the EU, and now one of you tells me to bugger off back to Ireland. Surely you can see the funny side.
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
turbobloke said:
Mrr T said:
Tuna said:
It doesn't seem to matter how many times it gets said. There's a difference between companies relocating and passporting being taken away. Companies will move. They always have done. Some will have been planning to move for years. Some will just be starting. The multi billion dollar a year company I work for has said it's staying, along with the hundreds of staff it employs.
If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
You seem to be confused by financial services passporting. It is only available to countries in the EEA and Switzerland. The EU does not allow any other countries to sell financial services into the EU unless they are regulated in the EU. This will change but these changes are some way off.If you work for a global company, you shouldn't be surprised if they move. If you want to have a nice house in the Cotswolds, start a gardening service.
to post this link to an article covering this point.'Business as usual' for City banks if UK left the EU London-based banks would still have access to European financial markets, according to a new report.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
This isn't certain either - it demonstrates the uncertainty quite well.
It is very simple: if we are not in the EU or EEA and we do not negotiate equivalent status, then we lose passporting. Many of the banks are on the verge of deciding not to wait and see.
Edited by Zod on Wednesday 29th June 12:04
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
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