Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
don4l said:
I'm not sure that I do know how you feel.
Didn't you say that you were offended?
I burst out laughing when I saw vonuber's post.
Half of you are telling me that I must be racist for wanting to leave the EU, and now one of you tells me to bugger off back to Ireland. Surely you can see the funny side.
Again, not what i wrote - I said you can always go back if you choose. I didnt tell you to leave did I. Reading is obviously not your strong point.Didn't you say that you were offended?
I burst out laughing when I saw vonuber's post.
Half of you are telling me that I must be racist for wanting to leave the EU, and now one of you tells me to bugger off back to Ireland. Surely you can see the funny side.
For what it is worth I'm investigating getting thatin place for myself.
sanf said:
Thanks for this - some interesting debate going on.
At the moment we don't have a massive manufacturing base, and if as in bold, they move abroad, into the EU - then they will have no Tariffs as they are manufacturing in the EU. So they move, and we are not imposing tariffs on the stuff they are now producing in the EU.
Would that not lead to loss of jobs, higher unemployment, reduction in GDP??
Not necessarily. With zero tariffs there's no net benefit to moving to the EU, but you're suddenly subject to their tariffs on stuff you import to make the stuff you're selling. Tariffs are a cost on doing business, either directly or indirectly (when the boss wants a Whiskey to celebrate a good days' work).At the moment we don't have a massive manufacturing base, and if as in bold, they move abroad, into the EU - then they will have no Tariffs as they are manufacturing in the EU. So they move, and we are not imposing tariffs on the stuff they are now producing in the EU.
Would that not lead to loss of jobs, higher unemployment, reduction in GDP??
Additionally, as we import more than we export, we have already 'lost' those jobs. On the whole we don't want to be competing to make cheap stuff - no-one's campaigning to have rock bottom wages so we can be like China. Of course the challenge is to make sure that when we loose low value jobs, we replace them with higher value jobs. That's what has made the richer economies richer - we've moved all the low value stuff out to poorer nations and make high value stuff that brings us more money. If you look at what's happened to the car industry, we moved from mass producing cheap and unreliable motors to being specialists in engineering and design, to high tech stuff and prestige brands. There was huge outcry when British Leyland collapsed, but I believe the place we are now is probably much, much better.
This unfortunately is one of the problems the current 'business unfriendly' political classes really don't get - a mobile workforce is far more important than an embedded and protected one. We need well educated workers who can easily move around the country, rather than poorly educated workers with 'jobs for life'. Education, transport and the housing market all need to be geared to making it easy to take advantage of new jobs.
vonuber said:
don4l said:
I'm not sure that I do know how you feel.
Didn't you say that you were offended?
I burst out laughing when I saw vonuber's post.
Half of you are telling me that I must be racist for wanting to leave the EU, and now one of you tells me to bugger off back to Ireland. Surely you can see the funny side.
Again, not what i wrote - I said you can always go back if you choose. Didn't you say that you were offended?
I burst out laughing when I saw vonuber's post.
Half of you are telling me that I must be racist for wanting to leave the EU, and now one of you tells me to bugger off back to Ireland. Surely you can see the funny side.
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
Can I suggest a better link:
http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/knowledge/publi...
If I may quote:
"London is seen as an entry point to the EU’s single market in financial services. A complete exit from the EU would mean that the UK would not be party to EU single market Directives and therefore lose the ability to passport under them. There could possibly be a period of significant confusion as overseas financial services firms which use a London subsidiary would need to decide how to restructure themselves and decide how much of their operation to transfer elsewhere in the EU. "
That's lawyer speak for lots of job loses.
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
Can I suggest a better link:
http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/knowledge/publi...
If I may quote:
"London is seen as an entry point to the EU’s single market in financial services. A complete exit from the EU would mean that the UK would not be party to EU single market Directives and therefore lose the ability to passport under them. There could possibly be a period of significant confusion as overseas financial services firms which use a London subsidiary would need to decide how to restructure themselves and decide how much of their operation to transfer elsewhere in the EU. "
That's lawyer speak for lots of job loses.
Everyone will compromise here, the Brexit people and Europe.
Gandahar said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
Can I suggest a better link:
http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/knowledge/publi...
If I may quote:
"London is seen as an entry point to the EU’s single market in financial services. A complete exit from the EU would mean that the UK would not be party to EU single market Directives and therefore lose the ability to passport under them. There could possibly be a period of significant confusion as overseas financial services firms which use a London subsidiary would need to decide how to restructure themselves and decide how much of their operation to transfer elsewhere in the EU. "
That's lawyer speak for lots of job loses.
Everyone will compromise here, the Brexit people and Europe.
The quote cherry picked by Mrr T from the article represents the view that the article is querying, the certainty that is uncertain, so pointless really.
boxxob said:
You are intending to leave the UK? Seems a bit hasty and dramatic. If I have understood it correctly, then there would you like to go, ideally?
At present, no - but i would be foolish to not have a back up plan.My industry- civil engineering- is likely to be hammered by brexit and so i have to consider working abroad.
My preference would probably be germany, as i would get paid more and I like the place. Having family ties helps too - problem is I can't speak a word of German and i have to also consider the other half and the little one.
I have a lot of colleagues who are considering similar things. A similar flight of engineering expertise that we have seen from italy, spain etc.
turbobloke said:
And if Farage had said anything like that in any context your countenance and the sensibilities of an army of SJWs would have coalesced into a pool of self-righteous quivering jelly, posts with the highest ever Godwin score would be seen on numerous identikit threads, and The Guardian would form a clot in its ink tubes.
I can't speak to them but it is a true statement. I have had some italian friends moaning about the result and i pointed out they have been here long enough to get citizenship and then they could have voted, but they chose not too. The fact that they can leave at any point an go work elsewhere is something they seem to have forgotre .If don4l is an irish citizen and can thus move back (or within the eu) as he wishes it undermines his tubthumping argument as he can always leave if it goes wrong. Ultimate win-win.
Elysium said:
Tuna said:
I'm still trying to figure out the plunge of building companies. Rumours of the London market having ground to a halt have been going round for a few months and this may be the correction that was overdue. At the same time, is it purely sentiment that's damaging their value? All the building sites I pass on the way to work are still in full flow and people keep saying how much they need their project to complete so they can move in or get on with their business.
The housebuilders are bearing the brunt so far. Taylor wimpey went from 190 to 111 and has settled for now at 120 - so 37% down. I think this is reflecting house builders particular exposure to brexit due to a combination of potential rises in interest rates, new restrictions on lending and reduced overseas purchasers. Plus a big lump of 'wait and see' which is likely to stagnate the housing market.
Property values were pretty much at peak so a downturn was on the cards anyway, but not at this level or speed. There is no doubt in my mind that this is Brexit led and the striking thing is that it could have been a lot worse if events had not reassured investors that there was no chance of anyone pulling the article 50 lever in the near future.
You won't see any impact on operational building sites. Companies have contractual commitments that would be expensive to exit. New construction starts were already slowing in preparation for brexit. Commercial property transactions have also stalled whilst investors wait for events to unfold. We also have a situation already where it is impossible to value commercial property as transactional evidence can't be gathered quickly enough and no-one can work out quite how bad it will be.
TX.
Terminator X said:
Elysium said:
Tuna said:
I'm still trying to figure out the plunge of building companies. Rumours of the London market having ground to a halt have been going round for a few months and this may be the correction that was overdue. At the same time, is it purely sentiment that's damaging their value? All the building sites I pass on the way to work are still in full flow and people keep saying how much they need their project to complete so they can move in or get on with their business.
The housebuilders are bearing the brunt so far. Taylor wimpey went from 190 to 111 and has settled for now at 120 - so 37% down. I think this is reflecting house builders particular exposure to brexit due to a combination of potential rises in interest rates, new restrictions on lending and reduced overseas purchasers. Plus a big lump of 'wait and see' which is likely to stagnate the housing market.
Property values were pretty much at peak so a downturn was on the cards anyway, but not at this level or speed. There is no doubt in my mind that this is Brexit led and the striking thing is that it could have been a lot worse if events had not reassured investors that there was no chance of anyone pulling the article 50 lever in the near future.
You won't see any impact on operational building sites. Companies have contractual commitments that would be expensive to exit. New construction starts were already slowing in preparation for brexit. Commercial property transactions have also stalled whilst investors wait for events to unfold. We also have a situation already where it is impossible to value commercial property as transactional evidence can't be gathered quickly enough and no-one can work out quite how bad it will be.
TX.
In a time of relative stability a reduction in rates might see price/volume increases but not when confidence will be at such a low ebb.
I really don't think that lowering interest rates (they can't fall further in any case) will have any positive effect at all.
Terminator X said:
Madness to try and draw any conclusions just a few days after the leave vote! Come back to it in 6 months and see what has happened to share prices. The general consensus seems to be that interest rates may go down rather than up btw.
TX.
Agreed. The good news on market falls going into reverse is continuing.TX.
-Brexit bounce-back has extended into a second day, with the pound holding firm, UK stock market indices rising and bourses around Europe also continuing to regain ground
-Sterling is up close to 0.5% against the dollar to above $1.34
-FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both significantly higher this morning by 2% and 1% respectively to 6,248 and 15,669
-Banks' shares are leading the risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland up 3%
Gandahar said:
Mrr T said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
turbobloke said:
paul789 said:
This is going to be utterly catastrophic. What a massive delusion the 52% have fallen for. We were warned - but oh no, don't listed to experts. God I hope I'm wrong.
Nobody knows for sure. Here we go again.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...
Can I suggest a better link:
http://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/knowledge/publi...
If I may quote:
"London is seen as an entry point to the EU’s single market in financial services. A complete exit from the EU would mean that the UK would not be party to EU single market Directives and therefore lose the ability to passport under them. There could possibly be a period of significant confusion as overseas financial services firms which use a London subsidiary would need to decide how to restructure themselves and decide how much of their operation to transfer elsewhere in the EU. "
That's lawyer speak for lots of job loses.
Everyone will compromise here, the Brexit people and Europe.
It funny for years the rest of the EU have pushed to get the financial services industry to leave the UK and now the UK has voted to have it leave!!
On a more serious note even if the EU wanted to compromise you do not just change regulations overnight it takes years.
turbobloke said:
Agreed. The good news on market falls going into reverse is continuing.
-Brexit bounce-back has extended into a second day, with the pound holding firm, UK stock market indices rising and bourses around Europe also continuing to regain ground
-Sterling is up close to 0.5% against the dollar to above $1.34
-FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both significantly higher this morning by 2% and 1% respectively to 6,248 and 15,669
-Banks' shares are leading the risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland up 3%
it's a start.. My Barclays shares are now only worth 27% less than they were last Thursday..-Brexit bounce-back has extended into a second day, with the pound holding firm, UK stock market indices rising and bourses around Europe also continuing to regain ground
-Sterling is up close to 0.5% against the dollar to above $1.34
-FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both significantly higher this morning by 2% and 1% respectively to 6,248 and 15,669
-Banks' shares are leading the risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland up 3%
rscott said:
turbobloke said:
Agreed. The good news on market falls going into reverse is continuing.
-Brexit bounce-back has extended into a second day, with the pound holding firm, UK stock market indices rising and bourses around Europe also continuing to regain ground
-Sterling is up close to 0.5% against the dollar to above $1.34
-FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both significantly higher this morning by 2% and 1% respectively to 6,248 and 15,669
-Banks' shares are leading the risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland up 3%
it's a start.. My Barclays shares are now only worth 27% less than they were last Thursday..-Brexit bounce-back has extended into a second day, with the pound holding firm, UK stock market indices rising and bourses around Europe also continuing to regain ground
-Sterling is up close to 0.5% against the dollar to above $1.34
-FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are both significantly higher this morning by 2% and 1% respectively to 6,248 and 15,669
-Banks' shares are leading the risers, with Royal Bank of Scotland up 3%
RYH64E said:
Tuna said:
Mrr T said:
EU financial services passporting?
It keeps being raised. But it would cause utter chaos to take passporting away from the UK. If the EU attempt to force financial services to relocate, global businesses would be thrown into the sort of chaos that makes the current situation look like a holiday. A lot of global businesses would be pretty upset by that and I imagine will be lobbying the EU not to blow the lifeboats out of the water.http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/ev...
Worryingly he is danglng a carrot that sounds like special freedom of movement.
In other words - OK UK you have your special wall to keep out foreigners and we'll suck your banks into the EU.
We're being totally out played.
Zod said:
Alex said:
Tuna, that would be my choice. No UK tariffs, regardless of what the EU decide to do.
I thought Brexiteers were concerned about the trade deficit. What do you think would happen to that if we had no tariffs on imports, but our exports attracted tariffs in the EU?= car making will leave UK and go into the EU
Zod said:
Alex said:
Tuna, that would be my choice. No UK tariffs, regardless of what the EU decide to do.
I thought Brexiteers were concerned about the trade deficit. What do you think would happen to that if we had no tariffs on imports, but our exports attracted tariffs in the EU?turbobloke said:
Buy some more if you can, or haven't already done so.
Sorry, no. I suspect Rscott, like me, is locked in to the shares on a rolling 3 year vesting so we own plenty, thanks, and have no control over when to sell. So what we were "paid" one, two, three years ago, is now down 50% or more. This rolling vesting was intended to encourage long term thinking by individuals and alignment of interests, yet the value loss here has been nothing to do with personal, divisional or Group performance. Who is making me whole here then? Don't forget the tax and NI loss to the State is roughly the same as mine.And even though I was made redundant in February, I still have no control over this part of my assets. How fair is that?
Whoozit said:
Sorry, no. I suspect Rscott, like me, is locked in to the shares on a rolling 3 year vesting so we own plenty, thanks, and have no control over when to sell. So what we were "paid" one, two, three years ago, is now down 50% or more. This rolling vesting was intended to encourage long term thinking by individuals and alignment of interests, yet the value loss here has been nothing to do with personal, divisional or Group performance. Who is making me whole here then? Don't forget the tax and NI loss to the State is roughly the same as mine.
And even though I was made redundant in February, I still have no control over this part of my assets. How fair is that?
You chose to be paid in a manner that exposed you to things over which you have no control. It's completely fair - shares are a gamble and I assume that in return for some implied loyalty, you were paid quite well. I chose to walk away from share options that would have made me a millionaire before I hit thirty. I also chose not to buy a lottery ticket. It doesn't matter if it's a 'standard in the industry' - you made the choice. The same applies to pensions - you're putting money under someone else's management, with instructions as to roughly how much exposure you wish to have to unexpected events.And even though I was made redundant in February, I still have no control over this part of my assets. How fair is that?
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff