Is Boris sh*tting himself?

[anonymous-user]

paulrockliffe said:

Fittster said:

These chaps don't think so.

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...

Gove can't just get the keys to number 10 and put his signature on Article 50 even if he wanted to. The process will tie up and government (which may well require an election) for years to come,

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 30th June 12:33

You can tell that article is probably wrong because the key bit, who can pull the trigger, is only mentioned in the first paragraph, then there is pages of waffle about other things.

"If I can't understand it, it must be wrong".

Err, no. It may be wrong, it may be right, but the "waffle about other things" is actually quite closely reasoned analysis.

[eharding]

Greg66 said:

paulrockliffe said:

Fittster said:

These chaps don't think so.

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...

Gove can't just get the keys to number 10 and put his signature on Article 50 even if he wanted to. The process will tie up and government (which may well require an election) for years to come,

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 30th June 12:33

You can tell that article is probably wrong because the key bit, who can pull the trigger, is only mentioned in the first paragraph, then there is pages of waffle about other things.

"If I can't understand it, it must be wrong".

Err, no. It may be wrong, it may be right, but the "waffle about other things" is actually quite closely reasoned analysis.

I think his problem with the article revolves around the lack of easy-to-follow pictures, ideally involving finger-puppets, explaining the concepts involved.

[Alfa numeric]

Axionknight said:

Robbo66 said:

It has nothing to do whether Johnson wants or doesn't want to run.

Cameron check mated him, he realised and did the only thing he could possibly have done. Not run.

Extremely clever politics from the Remain camp.

Go on, explain that to me will you, I don't understand how you have come to that conclusion at all tbh.

I agree with Robbo- There was a reason Gove and Johnson wanted Cameron to stay, they wanted to remain untainted when it becomes clear that they can't deliver on all the promises they made during the referendum campaign. By doing the only thing he really could do in the circumstances, Cameron has tossed that grenade to the next occupant of Number 10. May can survive it as she said at the time that their promises were unachievable. Gove and Johnson would be facing political oblivion.

[cirian75]

So Boris has thrown a hand grenade in to the room that has a two year fuse.

Some will have to pull that pin soon.

and then left the room to play cricket?

[Don]

I think May will want the post and probably get it.

Boris, despite playing the buffoon, is a very smart cookie. If he'd stood now he would have done a William Hague and gone for the leadership too soon. No. He'll let May get the flack for doing what must be done. He'll also get a ministerial position from which he can launch a leadership campaign shortly before the next election.

I think he's biding his time. He may also not get the job due to that but I think that's probably "the plan".

[don4l]

AIUI, parliament has to authorise our withdrawal notice. We live in a parliamentry democracy, so parliament is supreme.

If we lived in a "people's democracy", then we wouldn't need a vote in parliament.

Most modern countries are peoples' democracies.

The idea that Boris didn't want to win is a bit stupid. He backed Leave because he knew that a win would unseat Cameron and create a vacancy in No 10 - which he wanted to occupy.

Gove still strikes me as a man of conviction, so I think that he simply doesn't believe that Boris is the best man to lead us forward.

[Chris Stott]

Well that backfired on him, didn't it

Support leave to ingratiate yourself with the right of the party, never expecting the country to vote leave, and the unthinkable happens.

Take on the leadership now and you have a divided party, a massively complex negotiation to lead, and an economy FUBAR throughout your term.

That plan didn't quite work out like you though it would, did it?

tt.

[WestyCarl]

CrutyRammers said:

If you chose to be at the forefront of a campaign, you should be prepared to knuckle down and deal with the consequences (which you claim to desire) when you win.

I'm sure he's doing what's best for Boris, as usual.

Or you could recognise you are not the best person for that job and stand aside............

[FredClogs]

What a length.

No balls.

[paulrockliffe]

eharding said:

Greg66 said:

paulrockliffe said:

Fittster said:

These chaps don't think so.

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-ba...

Gove can't just get the keys to number 10 and put his signature on Article 50 even if he wanted to. The process will tie up and government (which may well require an election) for years to come,

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 30th June 12:33

You can tell that article is probably wrong because the key bit, who can pull the trigger, is only mentioned in the first paragraph, then there is pages of waffle about other things.

"If I can't understand it, it must be wrong".

Err, no. It may be wrong, it may be right, but the "waffle about other things" is actually quite closely reasoned analysis.

I think his problem with the article revolves around the lack of easy-to-follow pictures, ideally involving finger-puppets, explaining the concepts involved.

You can think what you like. We'll find out soon enough what the legal position is. The article says the PM can't pull article 50, but doesn't explain why not beyond one line. The rest is irrelevant to the point of the article.

If you had to summarise the article in the context of the legal mechanism for triggering an Article 50 withdrawal it would be "The PM can't do it because the PM can't do it." It's hardly convincing is it.

[Robbo66]

Alfa numeric said:

Axionknight said:

Robbo66 said:

It has nothing to do whether Johnson wants or doesn't want to run.

Cameron check mated him, he realised and did the only thing he could possibly have done. Not run.

Extremely clever politics from the Remain camp.

Go on, explain that to me will you, I don't understand how you have come to that conclusion at all tbh.

I agree with Robbo- There was a reason Gove and Johnson wanted Cameron to stay, they wanted to remain untainted when it becomes clear that they can't deliver on all the promises they made during the referendum campaign. By doing the only thing he really could do in the circumstances, Cameron has tossed that grenade to the next occupant of Number 10. May can survive it as she said at the time that their promises were unachievable. Gove and Johnson would be facing political oblivion.

As above, thats why Cameron has been so 'up', generally bouncing. Cameron went immediately, and Osborne, to ground after the result. All planned. Johnson went quiet as realised he was in a corner and that to press the button on A50 was economic suicide.He didn't want to do it, and was relying on Cameron to remain to handle it, thats why he looked so subdued after the win.
Hesseltine etc, all pushing that Johnson should run as they knew he couldn't. Made him look the Buffoon he is.

He outmanoeuvred Johnson, and is delighted. They say politics is dull, fascinating they way they played him.

[PorkInsider]

FredClogs said:

What a length.

No balls.

This whole Brexit thing is pissing me off for more reasons each day.

The fact that I now find myself agreeing with Clogs multiple times each day is just the icing on the st cake.

[p1stonhead]

Can this thread close now then? The answer is clear.

[Tuna]

Boris can't win:

"He only led Leave so he could become Prime Minister"

"He's not Prime Minister material - he shouldn't be allowed"

.. Boris doesn't stand for PM

"How dare he not be Prime Minister!"

Some people are so desperate for the bad dream to go away that they're imagining invoking Article 50 is so scary that no-one will dare do it. I can see at least two candidates who look like they are absolutely committed to making it happen.

[s2art]

It seems clear to me that Boris stood down because he couldnt form a team. That was implicit in both his and Gove's statement. Not enough talented Tories were prepared to accept him as leader.

[Kermit power]

turbobloke said:

Hopefully not, but the decision by Boris wasn't anticipated by anyone I've read on PH or outside PH so the game has changed remarkably in the space of a few minutes, with the naturally occurring thought that Boris thought it was too tough to chew on this time around. Which has a wiff and a waft, in all honesty, of being frit.

I predicted it enough to start a poll asking what PHers' views would be on him if he didn't stand.

[Kermit power]

paulrockliffe said:

turbobloke said:

paulrockliffe said:

Gove will win, Boris will support him. Boris (and the Party) will have assurance form Gove that he'll stand down following our exit from the EU. Someone else will lead the party into the next election. Sorted.

Gove has the capability to manage Brexit.

Someone else...do you have the name Boris in mind?!

I don't have an opinion one way or another, but I can imagine that could be the price of Boris supporting Gove. It's a long way off to predict I'd say, especially in this political climate.

Why would you assume, in light of the way things have panned out since Friday morning, that Gove would want Boris' support?? I reckon he's totally toxic now, and will be for years to come.

[Mr_B]

Tuna said:

Boris can't win:

"He only led Leave so he could become Prime Minister"

"He's not Prime Minister material - he shouldn't be allowed"

.. Boris doesn't stand for PM

"How dare he not be Prime Minister!"

Some people are so desperate for the bad dream to go away that they're imagining invoking Article 50 is so scary that no-one will dare do it. I can see at least two candidates who look like they are absolutely committed to making it happen.

True

[MarshPhantom]

Tuna said:

Boris can't win:

"He only led Leave so he could become Prime Minister"

"He's not Prime Minister material - he shouldn't be allowed"

.. Boris doesn't stand for PM

"How dare he not be Prime Minister!"

Some people are so desperate for the bad dream to go away that they're imagining invoking Article 50 is so scary that no-one will dare do it. I can see at least two candidates who look like they are absolutely committed to making it happen.

But Tory MPs are overwhelmingly pro-remain, roughly 180 vs 130 according to Conservative Home. Why would they vote for a leader that will do the opposite of what they want.

[MarshPhantom]

Mr_B said:

Tuna said:

Boris can't win:

"He only led Leave so he could become Prime Minister"

"He's not Prime Minister material - he shouldn't be allowed"

.. Boris doesn't stand for PM

"How dare he not be Prime Minister!"

Some people are so desperate for the bad dream to go away that they're imagining invoking Article 50 is so scary that no-one will dare do it. I can see at least two candidates who look like they are absolutely committed to making it happen.

True

Poor little Boris.