Is Boris sh*tting himself?
Discussion
boxxob said:
For some balance, perhaps we should do some analysis of the motives for the Londoners voting behaviour (along the turkeys don't vote for christmas lines). We may even conclude that it's had its day of vastly higher spending per capita (which runs through everything from infrastructure to education).
Possibly because when a 5-minute walk to the shops in London can involve rubbing shoulders with a whole league of nations, Londoners are less likely to vote in favour of 'sending them all home'. Having recently moved from London out to an area where the sighting a black person makes front page news, I've been astounded by how impirtant 'immigration' is to people who've rarely met an immigrant. TTwiggy said:
Possibly because when a 5-minute walk to the shops in London can involve rubbing shoulders with a whole league of nations, Londoners are less likely to vote in favour of 'sending them all home'. Having recently moved from London out to an area where the sighting a black person makes front page news, I've been astounded by how impirtant 'immigration' is to people who've rarely met an immigrant.
I moved from an area in London where professionally I came into contact with quite a few blacks. Out to the counties I found attitudes that struck me as old fashioned. However, in London there was an attitude to gays that, after a few weeks in Brighton, I thought old fashioned. The thing is that many people fear gays and blacks because they think they are somehow different and hence scary. I would meet a gay couple in Brighton and the fact that they were gay would not really register.
My rugby team was playing an important, to both sides, rugby match in London and a number of the other supporters had dressed in pink. It didn't register as strange until, during the match, they started shouting anti-gay comments. It was almost as if they believed they didn't have any gays in their team or crowd. It's not important in Brighton so who cares.
We beat them.
WestyCarl said:
Blimey 30+ pages of pure speculation. Maybe, just maybe, this happened;
- Boris actually believes we'd be better of out of Europe with all it's bureaucracy (he view is very London Centric)
- In the last few days his team realised he didn't have enough support from MP's to win so decided to bow out and fight another day rather than loose
That is exactly what happened. He hasn't been in the Commons for much more than a year (since an 8 year break) and isn't that well known or popular with current MPs. His challenged was to get onto the final two ballot where he stood a good chance with the membership.- Boris actually believes we'd be better of out of Europe with all it's bureaucracy (he view is very London Centric)
- In the last few days his team realised he didn't have enough support from MP's to win so decided to bow out and fight another day rather than loose
Apparently he had support of less than 20 MPs so would have struggled to get through the first round. He evidently didn't fancy being humiliated by being immediately knocked out.
Gove reckoned he could deliver about 70 MPs - Johnson had campaign managers appointed, offices hired etc, so up until 9.00am yesterday was clearly planning to go for it.
As a historian he should know better. Heseltine, Portillio, Clarke etc....the early favourite and challenger never gets the Tory crown.
wc98 said:
///ajd said:
The deal won't be as good though as we have now.
Brexiteers are still in denial about that.
I suspect the tory recovery plan is to look for the best outcome possible with EU pre Art 50, then compare it to what we have, and say "do you know what?" ...... it will likely to Norway with nil or min extra migration control, £350m costs at 85%, no influence and single market access may have clouds over e.g. passporting.
And the nation will say "what the fook would we want that for?"
They can't do that yet though, too soon.
the deal the uk will get will be specific to our situation. not the situation of norway, switzerland or anyone else. is this so hard to understand ?Brexiteers are still in denial about that.
I suspect the tory recovery plan is to look for the best outcome possible with EU pre Art 50, then compare it to what we have, and say "do you know what?" ...... it will likely to Norway with nil or min extra migration control, £350m costs at 85%, no influence and single market access may have clouds over e.g. passporting.
And the nation will say "what the fook would we want that for?"
They can't do that yet though, too soon.
Having voted for leaving EU, I don't think that there is a way for UK to stay in now. Next best option, is along the lines of Norway, but they don't seem particularly interested in UK joining EFTA. Again, read the statement from Norway PM, very pragmatic and it boils down to; 'Our relationship with EU is more important than our relationship with UK'.
don4l said:
This is good news, because it will help Tusk and Junker to understand that they will negotiate a trade deal with the UK on our terms. Two days ago, that pair of idiots thought that they had the upper hand. They still haven't seen the light. Another 10% drop in European stock markets might help them to understand that they are in no position to dictate terms.
You have to like don4l he lives in his own little world where Britain still rules the waves. He has no idea about grown up thing like the fact EU financial services passport is vital to many financial services companies in the UK.
So no we do not hold all the cards. In fact we are at a disadvantage in any discussions with the rEU.
Kermit power said:
If you know that Britain really does have the upper hand in the negotiations, how come you haven't addressed the fact that we currently export over 3 times as much to the EU per capita as they export to us?
I'm sure you can explain exactly how having three times as much to lose as them for every man, woman and child in the country means that we've got the upper hand. I know these threads have been growing very quickly, so you may not have seen the question. I wouldn't like you to miss the opportunity to tell us why it puts us in such a strong position though, so here's another chance!
Because it is utterly irrelevant. I'm sure you can explain exactly how having three times as much to lose as them for every man, woman and child in the country means that we've got the upper hand. I know these threads have been growing very quickly, so you may not have seen the question. I wouldn't like you to miss the opportunity to tell us why it puts us in such a strong position though, so here's another chance!
The EU has a huge trade surplus with us. That is all that matters.
There are far more German and French jobs at risk than British ones.
Volkswagen shares are down 12% since last Thursday.
The FTSE100 is up 2.9%.
The Spanish stock market is in meltdown http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/24/inenglish/1466...
El Pais said:
The Ibex sustained the greatest losses of its entire 24-year history on Friday, when news of a Brexit victory pushed Spain’s benchmark stock market index down 12.35% at closing time.
boxxob said:
For some balance, perhaps we should do some analysis of the motives for the Londoners voting behaviour (along the turkeys don't vote for christmas lines). We may even conclude that it's had its day of vastly higher spending per capita (which runs through everything from infrastructure to education).
I work in a truly international team in London, many of whom are planning to make their lives here, having moved from Italy, Portugal and other European countries to work.London is affluent, pretty comfortable, multicultural. For the immigrants, it's a place where they've found jobs, careers, partners, friends. For the 'locals', Europe is a holiday destination, a place they do trade with and supplies plenty of cheap labour for the jobs they don't want to do. With Europe just a couple of hours away, London is one of the most successful cities in the world. Within the UK it's almost an independent state, with politicians making decisions that benefit the people in the capital first.
Who doesn't want to be successful, with friends, great food and someone to take the bins out? You can see the same effect in all of the comfortably well off big cities in the UK. Unlike some of the cities in mainland Europe, social integration runs deep - there are few real 'ghettos' and you have to travel a long way to find communities that are really struggling to make ends meet. And it's a part of our society - so much of our media focuses first on London and then on Europe. You're more likely to read an article about an exhibition in Paris than flooding in Newcastle in the Evening Standard.
That comfortable bubble supports a very liberal outlook, with a slight tinge of 'let them eat cake'.
Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
Mrr T said:
don4l said:
This is good news, because it will help Tusk and Junker to understand that they will negotiate a trade deal with the UK on our terms. Two days ago, that pair of idiots thought that they had the upper hand. They still haven't seen the light. Another 10% drop in European stock markets might help them to understand that they are in no position to dictate terms.
You have to like don4l he lives in his own little world where Britain still rules the waves. He has no idea about grown up thing like the fact EU financial services passport is vital to many financial services companies in the UK.
So no we do not hold all the cards. In fact we are at a disadvantage in any discussions with the rEU.
Have any of your predictions turned out to be correct?
Now ask yourself another question.
Have any of my predictions turned out to be correct?
It is now a full week since you lost.
Isn't it about time that you stopped sulking?
WestyCarl said:
Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
All for it. Good, lets negotiate with others. Forgetting for a moment that we are still full members of EU, with everything that that entails. I've heard Columbia and Venezuela are quite eager for talks. Not sure that their markets are worth £300bn. Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
boxxob said:
p1stonhead said:
Zod said:
Kermit power said:
vonuber said:
How do you close the funding gap without cuts? how do you honour Cornwall's £60million/year?
Are we looking at raising tax rates?
The people of Cornwall voted to leave, so they obviously felt they didn't need to £60m. fAre we looking at raising tax rates?
k 'em. Time for them to live with the consequences of their actions.king shouldnt get a penny. Like turkeys voting for christmas.
jjlynn27 said:
WestyCarl said:
Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
All for it. Good, lets negotiate with others. Forgetting for a moment that we are still full members of EU, with everything that that entails. I've heard Columbia and Venezuela are quite eager for talks. Not sure that their markets are worth £300bn. Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
jjlynn27 said:
WestyCarl said:
Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
All for it. Good, lets negotiate with others. Forgetting for a moment that we are still full members of EU, with everything that that entails. I've heard Columbia and Venezuela are quite eager for talks. Not sure that their markets are worth £300bn. Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
Or we could just sit and complain and let the EU dictate terms to us with no back up plan and then spend the next 20yrs moaning it was all Boris's fault.
The biggest advantage we got from leaving is that we are now in control of our own destiny. So lets take control........
jjlynn27 said:
wc98 said:
///ajd said:
The deal won't be as good though as we have now.
Brexiteers are still in denial about that.
I suspect the tory recovery plan is to look for the best outcome possible with EU pre Art 50, then compare it to what we have, and say "do you know what?" ...... it will likely to Norway with nil or min extra migration control, £350m costs at 85%, no influence and single market access may have clouds over e.g. passporting.
And the nation will say "what the fook would we want that for?"
They can't do that yet though, too soon.
the deal the uk will get will be specific to our situation. not the situation of norway, switzerland or anyone else. is this so hard to understand ?Brexiteers are still in denial about that.
I suspect the tory recovery plan is to look for the best outcome possible with EU pre Art 50, then compare it to what we have, and say "do you know what?" ...... it will likely to Norway with nil or min extra migration control, £350m costs at 85%, no influence and single market access may have clouds over e.g. passporting.
And the nation will say "what the fook would we want that for?"
They can't do that yet though, too soon.
Having voted for leaving EU, I don't think that there is a way for UK to stay in now. Next best option, is along the lines of Norway, but they don't seem particularly interested in UK joining EFTA. Again, read the statement from Norway PM, very pragmatic and it boils down to; 'Our relationship with EU is more important than our relationship with UK'.
WestyCarl said:
jjlynn27 said:
WestyCarl said:
Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.
Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
All for it. Good, lets negotiate with others. Forgetting for a moment that we are still full members of EU, with everything that that entails. I've heard Columbia and Venezuela are quite eager for talks. Not sure that their markets are worth £300bn. Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.
Or we could just sit and complain and let the EU dictate terms to us with no back up plan and then spend the next 20yrs moaning it was all Boris's fault.
The biggest advantage we got from leaving is that we are now in control of our own destiny. So lets take control........
It doesn't matter whose fault it is, I'd like to see a coherent plan, an actual achievable plan rather than subtitled Soviet era tractor factory poster where we urge people if they work harder it will all be good.
'Let's take control....' To me, things like that are meaningless soundbites.
jjlynn27 said:
If we are still members of EU, I was under impression that 'sending all our ambassadors out to 'sound out' all countries for trade deals was a no-no. If it wasn't we could have done that before all this mess surely? My point is that nothing has technically changed, that allow us to explore other options, and it will not change until A50 negotiations are concluded, we have cloud of uncertainty hanging over us.
It doesn't matter whose fault it is, I'd like to see a coherent plan, an actual achievable plan rather than subtitled Soviet era tractor factory poster where we urge people if they work harder it will all be good.
'Let's take control....' To me, things like that are meaningless soundbites.
I'll try once more. We are leaving the EU, nothing is stopping us talking informally to other countries about their interest. Hopefully we've been doing this already for months. "Mr Patel, should be leave the EU and get rid of all it's red tape and restrictive rules, what possibilities do you think we have for India trade?"It doesn't matter whose fault it is, I'd like to see a coherent plan, an actual achievable plan rather than subtitled Soviet era tractor factory poster where we urge people if they work harder it will all be good.
'Let's take control....' To me, things like that are meaningless soundbites.
The EU have already had one meeting without us to "prepare" for us leaving, so why can't we do the same.
"Let's take control..." means exactly that. 80% of negotiations are won with the ground work and who has the stronger hand, so let's start assembling "our hand" now.
MarshPhantom said:
Do I have to dig up my proof of Londoners being more intelligent than the rest of the country by a very long way stats again?
Presumably this refers to those living in London rather than those born there, as there's no reason to expect the distribution in intelligence being any different to the national picture for births. Workplace considerations e.g. types of role undertaken will be acting as a filter for those living there, presumably.In terms of stats, do you happen to have any info showing that Londoners (by any definition) are more wise than the rest of the country by a very long way?
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