Is Boris sh*tting himself?

[jjlynn27]

wc98 said:

as ever pragmatism will win out.a large part of the norwegian economy is based on fishing. a large part of their fisheries sector is dependent upon pelagic species like mackerel and blue whiting. they are desperate to maintain access to these fisheries in uk waters .this is part of the reason the uk has agreements for access to norwegian waters for demersal species. so yet again there is a situation where coming to an agreement will be in the interests of both parties.

At this stage, I'd LOVE deal along EFTA lines. But;

Norway industry minister said:

Norway model not right for Britain post-Brexit.

Norway PM said:

“An EFTA agreement will give us a good relationship with the UK. We can also get [a good relationship with the UK] through other agreements as well. And do we want Britain to be involved in dictating what the EFTA negotiates with third countries? Will our key national interests being benefited by that? That is the discussion we need to have,” Solberg said, pointing out that the dynamics of the EFTA negotiations with other countries will change.

“Parliament has been concerned that ILO [International Labour Organization] Conventions, labour rights and human rights should be in our agreements, and those concerns are not usually at the top of the list of the things the UK negotiates over,”

[jjlynn27]

whoami said:

jjlynn27 said:

If we are still members of EU, I was under impression that 'sending all our ambassadors out to 'sound out' all countries for trade deals was a no-no.

Surely you don't think that countries are sitting on their hands waiting to be given permission to talk to each other?

If you quoted my next sentence you'd see what I think. I think if 'countries are not sitting on their hands', why wasn't this done before ref?

[whoami]

jjlynn27 said:

whoami said:

jjlynn27 said:

If we are still members of EU, I was under impression that 'sending all our ambassadors out to 'sound out' all countries for trade deals was a no-no.

Surely you don't think that countries are sitting on their hands waiting to be given permission to talk to each other?

If you quoted my next sentence you'd see what I think. I think if 'countries are not sitting on their hands', why wasn't this done before ref?

We'll never know whether it was being discussed prior to the referendum or not.

The fact remains though, that thinking discussions will now not start immediately (or likely have already started) is mistaken.

[jjlynn27]

WestyCarl said:

I'll try once more. We are leaving the EU, nothing is stopping us talking informally to other countries about their interest. Hopefully we've been doing this already for months. "Mr Patel, should be leave the EU and get rid of all it's red tape and restrictive rules, what possibilities do you think we have for India trade?"
The EU have already had one meeting without us to "prepare" for us leaving, so why can't we do the same.

"Let's take control..." means exactly that. 80% of negotiations are won with the ground work and who has the stronger hand, so let's start assembling "our hand" now.

Thanks for trying once more. The issue is 'Hopefully'. From what I see, and I'd be very very happy to be shown that I'm wrong, I really would, there was no preparation in advance. None at all.

As for Eu having meeting, of course they are having meetings to prepare. As far as I know they are not having meetings with third parties to 'prepare' for us leaving.

You are right about preparation and stronger hand, even disregarding 80%, I just don't see how we have stronger hand at all. Someone mentioned that they have 500 negotiators trashing out deals all the time. How many, with what experience do we have, if we are excited that NZ wants to send us some to help.

[Kermit power]

don4l said:

Kermit power said:

If you know that Britain really does have the upper hand in the negotiations, how come you haven't addressed the fact that we currently export over 3 times as much to the EU per capita as they export to us?

I'm sure you can explain exactly how having three times as much to lose as them for every man, woman and child in the country means that we've got the upper hand. I know these threads have been growing very quickly, so you may not have seen the question. I wouldn't like you to miss the opportunity to tell us why it puts us in such a strong position though, so here's another chance!

Because it is utterly irrelevant.

The EU has a huge trade surplus with us. That is all that matters.
There are far more German and French jobs at risk than British ones.

Volkswagen shares are down 12% since last Thursday.

The FTSE100 is up 2.9%.

The Spanish stock market is in meltdown http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/24/inenglish/1466...

El Pais said:

The Ibex sustained the greatest losses of its entire 24-year history on Friday, when news of a Brexit victory pushed Spain’s benchmark stock market index down 12.35% at closing time.

You're utterly convinced that this is all going to be looked at in a perfect vacuum, aren't you!

One of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they believe the EU to be an undemocratic, unelected autocracy over which the people of Europe have absolutely no control, to whom absolutely NOTHING matters except the furtherance of the European Superstate.

Now either that's completely untrue, in which case why on earth did we vote to leave (??) or it's true, in which case what on earth makes you think that they're going to negotiate rationally, rather than purely with a view to demonstrating to the citizens of other member states that leaving the EU is the worst fate imaginable?

Add to that the highly relevant fact that in a Mexican stand-off, we've got far, far more to lose per capita, and you're deluded if you think the EU is going to view a fair and equitable trade deal as being the best strategic outcome for them.

[Terminator X]

Kermit power said:

He may not have fked the country over by joining Leave, but he certainly fked it over by giving the impression that we could leave the EU and take complete control of immigration, when he knew full well that if he were to take the reins, he'd be pushing for continued access to the Single Market with the free movement of people that that access requires.

You don't know that it can't be done, years of negotiations required yet ffs. The art of negotiation - [day one] tell everyone you're getting nothing from us eg Foxtrot Oscar ... [last day] oh ok, no problem with that.

TX.

[Zod]

boxxob said:

p1stonhead said:

Zod said:

Kermit power said:

vonuber said:

How do you close the funding gap without cuts? how do you honour Cornwall's £60million/year?
Are we looking at raising tax rates?

The people of Cornwall voted to leave, so they obviously felt they didn't need to £60m. fk 'em. Time for them to live with the consequences of their actions.

That's how I feel too. Same goes for Wales, but it won't happen. They'll get their money and the rest of us will have to pay for it.

The fking shouldnt get a penny. Like turkeys voting for christmas.

For some balance, perhaps we should do some analysis of the motives for the Londoners voting behaviour (along the turkeys don't vote for christmas lines). We may even conclude that it's had its day of vastly higher spending per capita (which runs through everything from infrastructure to education).

We pay vastly more tax per capita in London.

[John145]

Kermit power said:

You're utterly convinced that this is all going to be looked at in a perfect vacuum, aren't you!

One of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they believe the EU to be an undemocratic, unelected autocracy over which the people of Europe have absolutely no control, to whom absolutely NOTHING matters except the furtherance of the European Superstate.

Now either that's completely untrue, in which case why on earth did we vote to leave (??) or it's true, in which case what on earth makes you think that they're going to negotiate rationally, rather than purely with a view to demonstrating to the citizens of other member states that leaving the EU is the worst fate imaginable?

Add to that the highly relevant fact that in a Mexican stand-off, we've got far, far more to lose per capita, and you're deluded if you think the EU is going to view a fair and equitable trade deal as being the best strategic outcome for them.

Always have to stand up to bullies

[MarshPhantom]

Kermit power said:

One of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they believe the EU to be an undemocratic, unelected autocracy over which the people have absolutely no control.

Odd that these types almost never get their knickers in a twist about the House of Lords.

[turbobloke]

MarshPhantom said:

Kermit power said:

One of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they believe the EU to be an undemocratic, unelected autocracy over which the people have absolutely no control.

Odd that these types almost never get their knickers in a twist about the House of Lords.

Intelligent folks who might be expected to be aware and take an interest, especially those in London, are likely to be aware of the Parliament Acts.

[turbobloke]

John145 said:

Always have to stand up to bullies

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

This is good news, because it will help Tusk and Junker to understand that they will negotiate a trade deal with the UK on our terms. Two days ago, that pair of idiots thought that they had the upper hand. They still haven't seen the light. Another 10% drop in European stock markets might help them to understand that they are in no position to dictate terms.

You have to like don4l he lives in his own little world where Britain still rules the waves.

He has no idea about grown up thing like the fact EU financial services passport is vital to many financial services companies in the UK.

So no we do not hold all the cards. In fact we are at a disadvantage in any discussions with the rEU.

Ask yourself a simple question.

Have any of your predictions turned out to be correct?

Now ask yourself another question.

Have any of my predictions turned out to be correct?

It is now a full week since you lost.

Isn't it about time that you stopped sulking?

don4l the great leaver who knows every thing about the future.

I did not make any prediction about the result I expected it to be to close to call.

I did make a prediction about political chaos after a leave win. That seems to be correct.

I have repeatedly posted that loss of EU financial services passporting would have a very negative impact on job in the UK and economic performance. I think most people are now accepting this.

In this case I pointed out your prediction that the rEU would agree to any deal the UK demanded because the rEU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to rUK was not the true position.

[jjlynn27]

London424 said:

India, Oz, NZ, China are a pretty decent start though.

Indeed they are. Not sure that additional business from those markets will be anywhere near what we stand to lose from single market, even if you exclude FI.

[London424]

jjlynn27 said:

London424 said:

India, Oz, NZ, China are a pretty decent start though.

Indeed they are. Not sure that additional business from those markets will be anywhere near what we stand to lose from single market, even if you exclude FI.

But the EU countries aren't going to literally stop buying anything/everything from the UK, it could/will reduce though. You are therefore hoping that the new deals with the rest of the world outstrips the loss incurred from the EU.

With a market of 6.5 billion people (with lots of growing, developing economies in there) vs 500 million (mainly stagnating economies) it should be seen as a pretty significant opportunity that needs to be exploited!

[Sam All]

London424 said:

jjlynn27 said:

London424 said:

India, Oz, NZ, China are a pretty decent start though.

Indeed they are. Not sure that additional business from those markets will be anywhere near what we stand to lose from single market, even if you exclude FI.

But the EU countries aren't going to literally stop buying anything/everything from the UK, it could/will reduce though. You are therefore hoping that the new deals with the rest of the world outstrips the loss incurred from the EU.

With a market of 6.5 billion people (with lots of growing, developing economies in there) vs 500 million (mainly stagnating economies) it should be seen as a pretty significant opportunity that needs to be exploited!

The EU is not a beacon of hope, anyone think it is?

[MarshPhantom]

turbobloke said:

MarshPhantom said:

Kermit power said:

One of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they believe the EU to be an undemocratic, unelected autocracy over which the people have absolutely no control.

Odd that these types almost never get their knickers in a twist about the House of Lords.

Intelligent folks who might be expected to be aware and take an interest, especially those in London, are likely to be aware of the Parliament Acts.

Obviously, but your average Leave voter wouldn't be.

[Kermit power]

Terminator X said:

You don't know that it can't be done, years of negotiations required yet ffs. The art of negotiation - [day one] tell everyone you're getting nothing from us eg Foxtrot Oscar ... [last day] oh ok, no problem with that.

TX.

Well no, of course, nobody knows with certainty that it can't be done, but given that it would effectively be the death knell for Free Movement in the EU, what chance do you think there is of it happening?

[mph1977]

s2art said:

Robertj21a said:

Sam All said:

You don't know what has gone on behind the scenes

So what's wrong with May as PM, Boris as FM, Osborne as Chancellor & Gove at the Home Office.

Sounds pretty good to me.

Osborne a chancellor?? He exposed himself as clueless when he proposed that punishment budget. Personally I would prefer Redwood.

depends if you consider the 'punishment' budget a punishment or a reaction to the loss of value of sterling, the reluctance of outside investors to invest, the potential / actual flight of various businesses ...

[WestyCarl]

jjlynn27 said:

You are right about preparation and stronger hand, even disregarding 80%, I just don't see how we have stronger hand at all.

I agree, which is why we need to start working now to strengthen our hand.

Imagine if we could go into the EU negotiations knowing that we have enough interest from the rest of the world to replace our EU exports (of course we could also enter knowing we have nothing.........)

[Tuna]

Kermit power said:

Well no, of course, nobody knows with certainty that it can't be done, but given that it would effectively be the death knell for Free Movement in the EU, what chance do you think there is of it happening?

Did you just say "Yes, we don't know what's going to happen, but given that it's going to be a disaster, how do you feel?"

You may be right (I don't personally believe that), but your questions are coming from an assumed starting point that will give only the answer you expect.