Is Boris sh*tting himself?

[turbobloke]

kurt535 said:

WestyCarl said:

Everybody is focusing on the EU, it's a bit of a red herring.

Now we are out of the EU, we can negotiate deals independently with the rest of the world. In fact if I was in Westminster at the moment this is exactly what I'd be tackling first. If it goes well then the UK dependency on EU negotiations will be much less.

I am SO, SO, SO bored hearing this line. Any trade delegations flown into London in the last week? Um, no.

Flying in is a bit restrictive, presumably the prematurity was intended to (artificially) rule out events such as these:

2 days ago:
Politicians in US, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea push for new UK trade deals after Brexit.

1 day ago:
Wellington’s (NZ) olive branch came alongside an offer to discuss a trade agreement with the UK, which would help Britain get out of the starting blocks and begin replacing the trade access lost as a result of the Brexit vote.

[don4l]

kurt535 said:

I am SO, SO, SO bored hearing this line. Any trade delegations flown into London in the last week? Um, no.

India, The USA, Canada and Australia have all said that they are willing to start talks.

Here is a story from the Financial Times about the overtures that India is making.

This link wont work because the FT is paywalled. However, if you paste the link into Google, then it should come up top of the list. It won't be paywalled from there.


https://next.ft.com/content/d35362a0-3c57-11e6-871...

[WestyCarl]

kurt535 said:

I can see the behind closed doors EU meetings right now:

-OK, who wants Airbus wing manufacturing? Greece/Portugal? OK
-Finance? OK 75% Franfurt, 25% Paris
-R/D? everyone a little bit? ok.
-Nissan cars? Portugal and Spain? OK

and so on....

You do realise these are companies and the EU can't decide themselves what going to move where

All the EU Members or independent UK can do is to try and make themselves more attractive to business. I would suggest that now (if...) we are going to be free of EU regulation we will have more flexibility than other EU members to be attractive to business. Off course it's only a part of it but a good start.

[AJS-]

don4l said:

I don't understand how anyone can suggest that Boris actually wanted to lose.

How could this have helped his career?

He could have cast himself as the mature and responsible man. He could have congratulated Cameron on a good clean campaign. Gracious in defeat, accepting the verdict of the people. He could also have promised yet more EU reform, and wouldn't be tarnished with the right of the party by being a Remainer.

Boris has (or had?) the bluster to bounce back from being on the losing side, but perhaps not from winning by mistake.

I'm not entirely convinced of this, but I wouldn't rule it out.

[jjlynn27]

WestyCarl said:

kurt535 said:

I can see the behind closed doors EU meetings right now:

-OK, who wants Airbus wing manufacturing? Greece/Portugal? OK
-Finance? OK 75% Franfurt, 25% Paris
-R/D? everyone a little bit? ok.
-Nissan cars? Portugal and Spain? OK

and so on....

You do realise these are companies and the EU can't decide themselves what going to move where


All the EU Members or independent UK can do is to try and make themselves more attractive to business. I would suggest that now (if...) we are going to be free of EU regulation we will have more flexibility than other EU members to be attractive to business. Off course it's only a part of it but a good start.

Do you think that EU can make UK look less attractive to finance and tech industry?

What flexibility are you talking about? Nobody knows how will this play out.

[Tuna]

jjlynn27 said:

Do you think that EU can make UK look less attractive to finance and tech industry?

What flexibility are you talking about? Nobody knows how will this play out.

For finance and tech we're in a pretty strong position I'd say. America and Asia the axes here. We speak the language of one and are in a position to make 'friendlier' deals with the other.

Europe has been trying to take the financial crown from London for years now, and that has definitely not gone the way they'd want. It's possible that they're slightly handicapped by the fact that Germany and France each don't want the other to get it - so London has always been a better compromise.

Now Europe could put up trade barriers for tech and finance, but in the short term they'd really hurt themselves as this is where a lot of the global activity flows. Contrary to some of the opinions here, putting up a barrier doesn't make companies instantly jump wherever you want them to. Even if they did, the transition phase would be enormously disruptive to the businesses that rely on them. In the negotiations, the EU leaders can't magically announce "We're moving Finance to Europe!", all they can say is "We've just made it more expensive to get access to global markets through London". They might dress it up in prettier words, but any financier worth their salt will understand that they are being hurt for the sake of some politician's ego.

In tech particularly they can't afford to make it any more difficult than it already is to get stuff into the continent. Localisation is a huge cost when a lot of stuff is developed for large continents like America or China which give tech companies instant access to populations that speak a single language and follow a single set of standards. Compared with an audience of 350 million, localising for somewhere like Portugal with less than a thirtieth of the population is barely worth it.

[jjlynn27]

Tuna said:

For finance and tech we're in a pretty strong position I'd say. America and Asia the axes here. We speak the language of one and are in a position to make 'friendlier' deals with the other.

For finance, yes, for tech, less so. Most of the tech companies that we deal with are innovators, engineers, people looking to the future, not bogged down with what happened 10,20 or 50 years ago. They want to be in close proximity with like minded people. They don't care where they are as long as they don't have to deal with politics, but can instead concentrate on their work. Pretty sensible position to take IMO.

Language? Every banker will speak English, and that's not going to change. Remember, these are highly adaptable people. Both Asia and USA are looking to pick the parts of London for themselves.

Tuna said:

Europe has been trying to take the financial crown from London for years now, and that has definitely not gone the way they'd want. It's possible that they're slightly handicapped by the fact that Germany and France each don't want the other to get it - so London has always been a better compromise.

You are absolutely right that they have been trying to take piece of City pie for ages now. With Lord Hill, and UK being within EU that position was much easier to defend. What are our defences now? London is world class city, but that in itself is not enough. Nobody knows when we'll trigger A50, how long will negotiations take and with what result we are going to negotiate. That is a lot of uncertainty for a considerable length of time.

Tuna said:

Now Europe could put up trade barriers for tech and finance, but in the short term they'd really hurt themselves as this is where a lot of the global activity flows. Contrary to some of the opinions here, putting up a barrier doesn't make companies instantly jump wherever you want them to. Even if they did, the transition phase would be enormously disruptive to the businesses that rely on them. In the negotiations, the EU leaders can't magically announce "We're moving Finance to Europe!", all they can say is "We've just made it more expensive to get access to global markets through London". They might dress it up in prettier words, but any financier worth their salt will understand that they are being hurt for the sake of some politician's ego.

Trade barriers are not a insurmountable problem for, at least, tech firms. The main issue, again imo, is movement of labour, goods and capital. Nobody has time to faf about with visas, and why would you, when you can relocate and have highly mobile people for short contracts whenever you need them. You are right that companies don't jump instantly to move. But if you don't think that they'll move if there is a prolonged period of uncertainty, you'd be wrong. Politicians don't even have to say 'We've just made it more expensive to get access'. One of the main advantages of London, was stable economy, being inside EU but not in Euro, stable government and geographical location. Do you think that economy and government are going to be seen as stable now? I'm not sure that I agree that financiers are going to think in terms of being hurt. They are going to think what is the best environment to run a business from. It's not an emotional decision at all. 'Worth their salt?', it's the bottom line and convenience that matters, everything else is wishful thinking.

Tuna said:

In tech particularly they can't afford to make it any more difficult than it already is to get stuff into the continent. Localisation is a huge cost when a lot of stuff is developed for large continents like America or China which give tech companies instant access to populations that speak a single language and follow a single set of standards. Compared with an audience of 350 million, localising for somewhere like Portugal with less than a thirtieth of the population is barely worth it.

English is going to stay language of tech, I don't think that anyone is saying anything else. Why do you think that bosses of F1 teams were saying that Brexit is terrible idea? Most of them are based in UK. I don't believe that they were 'scaremongering'. They want instant movement of labour. Not sure what 'audience of 350 mil' means. In any case, brexit is behind us, we need to move quickly to avoid any prolonged uncertainty. Waiting for next year to invoke A50 is a mistake. We shouldn't rush into it, but concentrate energies of devising plan, and getting on with it.

[turbobloke]

Not bad for a caption competition...

[don'tbesilly]

turbobloke said:

Not bad for a caption competition...

The pic could join all the others in the 'skeleton' cupboard.

Apparently BJ enquired about building an extension to the cupboard, but when he found out he'd need to get planning permission, he decided not to go ahead.