Positivity - The Future
Discussion
lostkiwi said:
Smollet said:
JagerT said:
^^^^^
Oh and the pound is going back up
So are the stock markets around the world. Still too early to say all will be rosy but not the massive end of the world scenario that was forecast once Brexit had been announced. In two years time the picture will be a lot clearer when details of the leaving package start getting leaked but overall I'm fairly positive and I voted to remain. Oh and the pound is going back up
We should be worried about what happens to our economy 5-10 years from now, when we're out, the EU starts to disintegrate & the Euro finally fails. That will be a better time to analyse how much of a cost/benefit scenario Brexit has proven to be.
Derek Smith said:
Smollet said:
On the BBC Breakfast programme this morning the CEO of Dixons Carphone was fairly upbeat about the whole thing. Yes he had his reservations but overall he sees it as a challenge that will be overcome like all the ones before. The 2008 financial crisis was far far worse than what's happening now and we got through that although there's still a lot to be done.
I've been looking at those CEOs who have bothered to put a comment online or in newspapers. It is as if they all have the same book: Comforting Words and Phrases for a Crisis.'Challenge' is popular. 'Overcome' is fine, but 'moving forward', 'taking opportunities', 'far worse has happened' is probably better. 'Much to do' is a sort of negative phrase, so context is important.
I've only seen the 2008 crisis mentioned once before and, like Dicksons' CEO, the chap didn't mention that then the rest of the world were in the same boat. This time it is only us sinking.
It is guff to try and placate shareholders. It is all bull. The CEO, like many of his colleagues, is bricking it.
Here is what Dixons CEO thinks:-
" In this momentous year we have largely completed our merger activities, driven customer satisfaction and market share to all time highs in virtually all of our markets, made our shops more interactive and exciting while becoming ever more competitive with pure-play retailers, launched a new joint venture in the US, launched a new UK mobile network, and embarked on an ambitious property plan in the UK and Ireland. We also had our biggest ever trading day on Black Friday last year.
We are far from done, though. We have very ambitious plans this year."
- Seb James, Dixons Carphone
On the EU referendum, James added: "As the strongest player in our market and despite the volatility that is the inevitable consequence of such change, we expect to find opportunities for additional growth and further consolidate our position as the leader in the UK market."
In short
A retailer posting record profits on a big expansion drive that isn't worried about the result of the EU referendum. Watch out.
Derek Smith said:
Smollet said:
On the BBC Breakfast programme this morning the CEO of Dixons Carphone was fairly upbeat about the whole thing. Yes he had his reservations but overall he sees it as a challenge that will be overcome like all the ones before. The 2008 financial crisis was far far worse than what's happening now and we got through that although there's still a lot to be done.
I've been looking at those CEOs who have bothered to put a comment online or in newspapers. It is as if they all have the same book: Comforting Words and Phrases for a Crisis.'Challenge' is popular. 'Overcome' is fine, but 'moving forward', 'taking opportunities', 'far worse has happened' is probably better. 'Much to do' is a sort of negative phrase, so context is important.
I've only seen the 2008 crisis mentioned once before and, like Dicksons' CEO, the chap didn't mention that then the rest of the world were in the same boat. This time it is only us sinking.
It is guff to try and placate shareholders. It is all bull. The CEO, like many of his colleagues, is bricking it.
Note to self; chase their invoice. ETA: Unlike many, DC are very good at paying invoices on time.
Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 09:25
mattmurdock said:
lostkiwi said:
Smollet said:
JagerT said:
^^^^^
Oh and the pound is going back up
So are the stock markets around the world. Still too early to say all will be rosy but not the massive end of the world scenario that was forecast once Brexit had been announced. In two years time the picture will be a lot clearer when details of the leaving package start getting leaked but overall I'm fairly positive and I voted to remain. Oh and the pound is going back up
TeamD said:
You just can't bear it can you? "Oh woe is me, What? the sky isn't falling in, I may have been wrong?"
Perhaps it is that I read what CEOs are saying, what's happening to the stock market and the £. It seems strange that most in business appear to be concerned, that most prognosticators have no idea what will happen.What I can't bear is the fact that we are in a situation where we have no idea what will happen. To suggest that 'the sky isn't falling in' is farcical. We've got two years of this and, to make things even worse, it seems that we'll have Johnson as PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L6KGuTr9TI
I get the impression that a lot of the market volatility has been self inflicted by the persevered confidence in a remain vote.
Apparently Barclays have shot themselves in the foot by going long on stocks they expected to rise; this might well explain why the national developers rose by 15% in the week leading up to the vote and then took a hammering on the result.
Apparently Barclays have shot themselves in the foot by going long on stocks they expected to rise; this might well explain why the national developers rose by 15% in the week leading up to the vote and then took a hammering on the result.
Positivity? There will be some I'm sure, but we are all passengers now in an unforgiving global market.
Any international company who have significant presence in the Europe will look at relocating their main offices from the UK to somewhere within Europe. Why wouldn't they? HSBC, Barclays, Vodafone are already manoeuvring this way. Many of the big UK manufacturers will look at the UK as a whole market and EU as a whole market, in time Nissan, Ford, GM, BMW, Toyota and who knows who else that is here and doesn't have a brand whose marketing value is based on Britishness (like Mini, Land Rover, Jaguar etc) and the numerous faceless 1st and 2nd tier international suppliers will drift over to Europe. This will avoid significant supply chain costs of trade and finance flows into and out of the EU just to do business.
Kent will fill up with refugees. France has no obligation to have our border controls on their shores. Be honest, the UK in the same situation would be the first to tell them its now their problem. France will leave the exit door open for them as it's our problem.
The rural economy will take a hit. Farmers get a huge chunk of income from the Common Agricultural Policy, backed by the might of French Farmers. Like it or not, our farmers sell into a highly protected and artificially high cost market because our cost of production is greater than many other world producers but the economic of farming mean they only just get by. Farage was promising cheaper food (which we'll all gladly rush to buy) because we can import from anywhere. NFU hasn't got anywhere near the clout to force the UK government to stop this or give even more money in subsidies as they become even less competitive. Nope, the rural economy will take a lot of pain. We'll not have to worry about immigrant fruit pickers and packers in Lincolnshire, there'll be no business there to employ them. Fruit and veg will become imports from South America, South Africa and anywhere else. The locals can then take advantage of the freefall in house prices that could follow.
We'll all have to have new 'non-EU' passports, and be charged £60 each for them. The public will declare this an outrage but if we're not in the EU, we're not entitled to them.
Going on holiday will become a major pain in the ass and more expensive. Already my holiday this summer has gone up 10% in the last week just because of the currency freefall. No more rushing to the tunnel and being waved through in a trail of unburned fuel from our beloved sportscars. Full, proper immigration checks will be required on entering the EU - unless we agree to the free movement of people, which we don't seem to want.
Thats if we can navigate the queues and queues of trucks backing up along the motorway. Yep, lets bring back full customs paperwork and documented declaration checks for the hundreds of thousands of trucks crossing each year between UK and Europe. It will add a cost to importing or exporting goods between the UK and Europe in terms of time - each hour a truck has to wait might add £50 to the cost of the transiting load in drivers time, vehicle standing charges and thats before the additional administrative cost of the paperwork. Think US / Mexico or US / Canada border. We might overcome it with a Swiss or Norwegian style arrangement. But that means accepting freedom of movement of people and contributing the EU budget and we don't want that.
Fuel may become more expensive. It's traded in USD, along with most other major commodities. Ok if our economy is strong, but 50/50 it'll go the other way.
We may trade a young working immigrant workforce for a resentful number of expats who's idilic life in Spain, France, Gibraltar, Italy (insert your own European country...) has suddenly become uncomfortable, complicated and expensive. We'll welcome back our pensioners, then moan that we still can't get doctors appointments or houses as our retired non-working and ageing countrymen start to put as much, if not more strain on public services and join housing queues.
Scotland will have another referendum. This time it will vote to leave the UK. Great, our beloved country is now fractured and broken. Nicola Sturgeon may cut a deal with the EU and Scotland remains in the EU. If I were an international company looking for a domicile in an English speaking EU country, I'd very quickly look north of the border and move my high value jobs there. We'll always share a landmass and language so trade will continue with England. Scotland will take the Euro and, assuming it does survive and I accept there is doubt about this, the currency will work very well against the devalued pound. Scotland doesn't export much to England anyway, so good jobs and favourable currency will make imports from England cheaper.
They'll probably negotiate dual nationality for Scottish residents enabling them to hold a rUK passport and European one. Much easier to move around with. And they'll still get the vast sums of European Social Fund money that goes on projects in the poorer parts of the Union. You know, the major city and infrastructure redevelopment projects you see everywhere with the Blue EU roundel on them 'part funded by the EU'. England of course, has voted to give up any entitlement to this money so I hope the UK government of the day can still find this money. I can't see it ever being much of a priority though.
Ireland may join the party, creating a Northern Arc that remains in the EU, linking Europe and Ireland via a land bridge across Scotland. Tariff free, customs light, and lower cost. It'll become a priority route for the European Project, a TEN-T transport corridor, which benefits from significant infrastructure funding. The existing TEN-T corridors across England that focus €B's in European support and funding and investment on major road and rail corridors to improve the free movement of people and goods will cease to exist, along with the investment. I hope UK Government has the deep pockets to step in.
We may have to have EU border controls between England and Scotland. But if cameras can catch me speeding and parking and not paying my road tax and paying my congestion charge, it's likely a system will be developed to mostly avoid this.
For the life of me, I can't see what was so terrible about being in the EU. Sure, it isn't perfect, but no system is. People are unhappy about much in this country, but the EU doesn't build schools or hospitals or train teachers and doctors? It doesn't set planning policy or build houses. These are matters the UK government has failed us on for decades. The EU doesn't set the priorities of the country or make the laws. The UK may have to transpose some stuff, but it is usually designed with our benefit in mind, to create opportunity, lower barriers and reduce cost. And don't start with the £350m. Even Farage was back-peddling in the EU parliament yesterday denying he made the claim.
I've no doubt we are a net contributor to the EU. But London is a net contributor the UK, and town centres and net contributors in city regions. It is impossible to have a system where everyone takes out more than they contribute and dangerous to have a situation where investment is focused only on wealth creators. That seems to me to be the very antithesis of why people have voted in the way they did - rural Lincolnshire felt it wasn't benefitting enough. It wants more than it contributes, fiscally, and so it should. But, taking the UK position, we seem to have said collectively that if the UK were London, we don't want to be funding 'lincolnshire' lame duck economies in Europe as they're holding us back. This is pretty sad. We are the 5th largest economy apparently and the 'social' aspect of the EU is understandably to use our collective wealth to support the whole community to grow.
There will be positives to being out and we have now to work hard to make it work, but I cannot see where the great utopia is that makes it so much better than pre-23rd and worth pain for the next decade probably.
Not quite the response I set out writing, but rant over.
By the way, where is Gove? Notable by his absence since 23rd.
Any international company who have significant presence in the Europe will look at relocating their main offices from the UK to somewhere within Europe. Why wouldn't they? HSBC, Barclays, Vodafone are already manoeuvring this way. Many of the big UK manufacturers will look at the UK as a whole market and EU as a whole market, in time Nissan, Ford, GM, BMW, Toyota and who knows who else that is here and doesn't have a brand whose marketing value is based on Britishness (like Mini, Land Rover, Jaguar etc) and the numerous faceless 1st and 2nd tier international suppliers will drift over to Europe. This will avoid significant supply chain costs of trade and finance flows into and out of the EU just to do business.
Kent will fill up with refugees. France has no obligation to have our border controls on their shores. Be honest, the UK in the same situation would be the first to tell them its now their problem. France will leave the exit door open for them as it's our problem.
The rural economy will take a hit. Farmers get a huge chunk of income from the Common Agricultural Policy, backed by the might of French Farmers. Like it or not, our farmers sell into a highly protected and artificially high cost market because our cost of production is greater than many other world producers but the economic of farming mean they only just get by. Farage was promising cheaper food (which we'll all gladly rush to buy) because we can import from anywhere. NFU hasn't got anywhere near the clout to force the UK government to stop this or give even more money in subsidies as they become even less competitive. Nope, the rural economy will take a lot of pain. We'll not have to worry about immigrant fruit pickers and packers in Lincolnshire, there'll be no business there to employ them. Fruit and veg will become imports from South America, South Africa and anywhere else. The locals can then take advantage of the freefall in house prices that could follow.
We'll all have to have new 'non-EU' passports, and be charged £60 each for them. The public will declare this an outrage but if we're not in the EU, we're not entitled to them.
Going on holiday will become a major pain in the ass and more expensive. Already my holiday this summer has gone up 10% in the last week just because of the currency freefall. No more rushing to the tunnel and being waved through in a trail of unburned fuel from our beloved sportscars. Full, proper immigration checks will be required on entering the EU - unless we agree to the free movement of people, which we don't seem to want.
Thats if we can navigate the queues and queues of trucks backing up along the motorway. Yep, lets bring back full customs paperwork and documented declaration checks for the hundreds of thousands of trucks crossing each year between UK and Europe. It will add a cost to importing or exporting goods between the UK and Europe in terms of time - each hour a truck has to wait might add £50 to the cost of the transiting load in drivers time, vehicle standing charges and thats before the additional administrative cost of the paperwork. Think US / Mexico or US / Canada border. We might overcome it with a Swiss or Norwegian style arrangement. But that means accepting freedom of movement of people and contributing the EU budget and we don't want that.
Fuel may become more expensive. It's traded in USD, along with most other major commodities. Ok if our economy is strong, but 50/50 it'll go the other way.
We may trade a young working immigrant workforce for a resentful number of expats who's idilic life in Spain, France, Gibraltar, Italy (insert your own European country...) has suddenly become uncomfortable, complicated and expensive. We'll welcome back our pensioners, then moan that we still can't get doctors appointments or houses as our retired non-working and ageing countrymen start to put as much, if not more strain on public services and join housing queues.
Scotland will have another referendum. This time it will vote to leave the UK. Great, our beloved country is now fractured and broken. Nicola Sturgeon may cut a deal with the EU and Scotland remains in the EU. If I were an international company looking for a domicile in an English speaking EU country, I'd very quickly look north of the border and move my high value jobs there. We'll always share a landmass and language so trade will continue with England. Scotland will take the Euro and, assuming it does survive and I accept there is doubt about this, the currency will work very well against the devalued pound. Scotland doesn't export much to England anyway, so good jobs and favourable currency will make imports from England cheaper.
They'll probably negotiate dual nationality for Scottish residents enabling them to hold a rUK passport and European one. Much easier to move around with. And they'll still get the vast sums of European Social Fund money that goes on projects in the poorer parts of the Union. You know, the major city and infrastructure redevelopment projects you see everywhere with the Blue EU roundel on them 'part funded by the EU'. England of course, has voted to give up any entitlement to this money so I hope the UK government of the day can still find this money. I can't see it ever being much of a priority though.
Ireland may join the party, creating a Northern Arc that remains in the EU, linking Europe and Ireland via a land bridge across Scotland. Tariff free, customs light, and lower cost. It'll become a priority route for the European Project, a TEN-T transport corridor, which benefits from significant infrastructure funding. The existing TEN-T corridors across England that focus €B's in European support and funding and investment on major road and rail corridors to improve the free movement of people and goods will cease to exist, along with the investment. I hope UK Government has the deep pockets to step in.
We may have to have EU border controls between England and Scotland. But if cameras can catch me speeding and parking and not paying my road tax and paying my congestion charge, it's likely a system will be developed to mostly avoid this.
For the life of me, I can't see what was so terrible about being in the EU. Sure, it isn't perfect, but no system is. People are unhappy about much in this country, but the EU doesn't build schools or hospitals or train teachers and doctors? It doesn't set planning policy or build houses. These are matters the UK government has failed us on for decades. The EU doesn't set the priorities of the country or make the laws. The UK may have to transpose some stuff, but it is usually designed with our benefit in mind, to create opportunity, lower barriers and reduce cost. And don't start with the £350m. Even Farage was back-peddling in the EU parliament yesterday denying he made the claim.
I've no doubt we are a net contributor to the EU. But London is a net contributor the UK, and town centres and net contributors in city regions. It is impossible to have a system where everyone takes out more than they contribute and dangerous to have a situation where investment is focused only on wealth creators. That seems to me to be the very antithesis of why people have voted in the way they did - rural Lincolnshire felt it wasn't benefitting enough. It wants more than it contributes, fiscally, and so it should. But, taking the UK position, we seem to have said collectively that if the UK were London, we don't want to be funding 'lincolnshire' lame duck economies in Europe as they're holding us back. This is pretty sad. We are the 5th largest economy apparently and the 'social' aspect of the EU is understandably to use our collective wealth to support the whole community to grow.
There will be positives to being out and we have now to work hard to make it work, but I cannot see where the great utopia is that makes it so much better than pre-23rd and worth pain for the next decade probably.
Not quite the response I set out writing, but rant over.
By the way, where is Gove? Notable by his absence since 23rd.
Derek Smith said:
TeamD said:
You just can't bear it can you? "Oh woe is me, What? the sky isn't falling in, I may have been wrong?"
Perhaps it is that I read what CEOs are saying, what's happening to the stock market and the £. It seems strange that most in business appear to be concerned, that most prognosticators have no idea what will happen.What I can't bear is the fact that we are in a situation where we have no idea what will happen. To suggest that 'the sky isn't falling in' is farcical. We've got two years of this and, to make things even worse, it seems that we'll have Johnson as PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L6KGuTr9TI
You are not deluding us, you are only deluding yourself.
You may have no idea about what will happen, but you seem happy to assume the worst possible scenario.
Recently, you told us that you were undecided. If you were undecided a couple of weeks ago, why are you so worried now?
biggles330d said:
Kent will fill up with refugees. France has no obligation to have our border controls on their shores. Be honest, the UK in the same situation would be the first to tell them its now their problem. France will leave the exit door open for them as it's our problem.
The agreement is not reliant on the EU?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juxtaposed_controls
Derek Smith said:
Perhaps it is that I read what CEOs are saying, what's happening to the stock market and the £. It seems strange that most in business appear to be concerned, that most prognosticators have no idea what will happen.
What I can't bear is the fact that we are in a situation where we have no idea what will happen. To suggest that 'the sky isn't falling in' is farcical. We've got two years of this and, to make things even worse, it seems that we'll have Johnson as PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L6KGuTr9TI
He comes across as something of a clown I agree.What I can't bear is the fact that we are in a situation where we have no idea what will happen. To suggest that 'the sky isn't falling in' is farcical. We've got two years of this and, to make things even worse, it seems that we'll have Johnson as PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L6KGuTr9TI
Have you ever spoken to a clown who is not working? The trade is one of the most respected in their environment, generally hardworking and highly intelligent people.
Oh and the entry requirements and length of training make your career choice rather laughable.
Not a personal dig Derek, I value your posts and insight, just pointing out that not many clowns are stupid.
biggles330d said:
Positivity? There will be some I'm sure, but we are all passengers now in an unforgiving global market.
Any international company who have significant presence in the Europe will look at relocating their main offices from the UK to somewhere within Europe. Why wouldn't they? HSBC, Barclays, Vodafone are already manoeuvring this way. Many of the big UK manufacturers will look at the UK as a whole market and EU as a whole market, in time Nissan, Ford, GM, BMW, Toyota and who knows who else that is here and doesn't have a brand whose marketing value is based on Britishness (like Mini, Land Rover, Jaguar etc) and the numerous faceless 1st and 2nd tier international suppliers will drift over to Europe. This will avoid significant supply chain costs of trade and finance flows into and out of the EU just to do business.
Kent will fill up with refugees. France has no obligation to have our border controls on their shores. Be honest, the UK in the same situation would be the first to tell them its now their problem. France will leave the exit door open for them as it's our problem.
The rural economy will take a hit. Farmers get a huge chunk of income from the Common Agricultural Policy, backed by the might of French Farmers. Like it or not, our farmers sell into a highly protected and artificially high cost market because our cost of production is greater than many other world producers but the economic of farming mean they only just get by. Farage was promising cheaper food (which we'll all gladly rush to buy) because we can import from anywhere. NFU hasn't got anywhere near the clout to force the UK government to stop this or give even more money in subsidies as they become even less competitive. Nope, the rural economy will take a lot of pain. We'll not have to worry about immigrant fruit pickers and packers in Lincolnshire, there'll be no business there to employ them. Fruit and veg will become imports from South America, South Africa and anywhere else. The locals can then take advantage of the freefall in house prices that could follow.
We'll all have to have new 'non-EU' passports, and be charged £60 each for them. The public will declare this an outrage but if we're not in the EU, we're not entitled to them.
Going on holiday will become a major pain in the ass and more expensive. Already my holiday this summer has gone up 10% in the last week just because of the currency freefall. No more rushing to the tunnel and being waved through in a trail of unburned fuel from our beloved sportscars. Full, proper immigration checks will be required on entering the EU - unless we agree to the free movement of people, which we don't seem to want.
Thats if we can navigate the queues and queues of trucks backing up along the motorway. Yep, lets bring back full customs paperwork and documented declaration checks for the hundreds of thousands of trucks crossing each year between UK and Europe. It will add a cost to importing or exporting goods between the UK and Europe in terms of time - each hour a truck has to wait might add £50 to the cost of the transiting load in drivers time, vehicle standing charges and thats before the additional administrative cost of the paperwork. Think US / Mexico or US / Canada border. We might overcome it with a Swiss or Norwegian style arrangement. But that means accepting freedom of movement of people and contributing the EU budget and we don't want that.
Fuel may become more expensive. It's traded in USD, along with most other major commodities. Ok if our economy is strong, but 50/50 it'll go the other way.
We may trade a young working immigrant workforce for a resentful number of expats who's idilic life in Spain, France, Gibraltar, Italy (insert your own European country...) has suddenly become uncomfortable, complicated and expensive. We'll welcome back our pensioners, then moan that we still can't get doctors appointments or houses as our retired non-working and ageing countrymen start to put as much, if not more strain on public services and join housing queues.
Scotland will have another referendum. This time it will vote to leave the UK. Great, our beloved country is now fractured and broken. Nicola Sturgeon may cut a deal with the EU and Scotland remains in the EU. If I were an international company looking for a domicile in an English speaking EU country, I'd very quickly look north of the border and move my high value jobs there. We'll always share a landmass and language so trade will continue with England. Scotland will take the Euro and, assuming it does survive and I accept there is doubt about this, the currency will work very well against the devalued pound. Scotland doesn't export much to England anyway, so good jobs and favourable currency will make imports from England cheaper.
They'll probably negotiate dual nationality for Scottish residents enabling them to hold a rUK passport and European one. Much easier to move around with. And they'll still get the vast sums of European Social Fund money that goes on projects in the poorer parts of the Union. You know, the major city and infrastructure redevelopment projects you see everywhere with the Blue EU roundel on them 'part funded by the EU'. England of course, has voted to give up any entitlement to this money so I hope the UK government of the day can still find this money. I can't see it ever being much of a priority though.
Ireland may join the party, creating a Northern Arc that remains in the EU, linking Europe and Ireland via a land bridge across Scotland. Tariff free, customs light, and lower cost. It'll become a priority route for the European Project, a TEN-T transport corridor, which benefits from significant infrastructure funding. The existing TEN-T corridors across England that focus €B's in European support and funding and investment on major road and rail corridors to improve the free movement of people and goods will cease to exist, along with the investment. I hope UK Government has the deep pockets to step in.
We may have to have EU border controls between England and Scotland. But if cameras can catch me speeding and parking and not paying my road tax and paying my congestion charge, it's likely a system will be developed to mostly avoid this.
For the life of me, I can't see what was so terrible about being in the EU. Sure, it isn't perfect, but no system is. People are unhappy about much in this country, but the EU doesn't build schools or hospitals or train teachers and doctors? It doesn't set planning policy or build houses. These are matters the UK government has failed us on for decades. The EU doesn't set the priorities of the country or make the laws. The UK may have to transpose some stuff, but it is usually designed with our benefit in mind, to create opportunity, lower barriers and reduce cost. And don't start with the £350m. Even Farage was back-peddling in the EU parliament yesterday denying he made the claim.
I've no doubt we are a net contributor to the EU. But London is a net contributor the UK, and town centres and net contributors in city regions. It is impossible to have a system where everyone takes out more than they contribute and dangerous to have a situation where investment is focused only on wealth creators. That seems to me to be the very antithesis of why people have voted in the way they did - rural Lincolnshire felt it wasn't benefitting enough. It wants more than it contributes, fiscally, and so it should. But, taking the UK position, we seem to have said collectively that if the UK were London, we don't want to be funding 'lincolnshire' lame duck economies in Europe as they're holding us back. This is pretty sad. We are the 5th largest economy apparently and the 'social' aspect of the EU is understandably to use our collective wealth to support the whole community to grow.
There will be positives to being out and we have now to work hard to make it work, but I cannot see where the great utopia is that makes it so much better than pre-23rd and worth pain for the next decade probably.
Not quite the response I set out writing, but rant over.
By the way, where is Gove? Notable by his absence since 23rd.
Interesting but a similarly pessimistic view could be taken had we remained in. Any international company who have significant presence in the Europe will look at relocating their main offices from the UK to somewhere within Europe. Why wouldn't they? HSBC, Barclays, Vodafone are already manoeuvring this way. Many of the big UK manufacturers will look at the UK as a whole market and EU as a whole market, in time Nissan, Ford, GM, BMW, Toyota and who knows who else that is here and doesn't have a brand whose marketing value is based on Britishness (like Mini, Land Rover, Jaguar etc) and the numerous faceless 1st and 2nd tier international suppliers will drift over to Europe. This will avoid significant supply chain costs of trade and finance flows into and out of the EU just to do business.
Kent will fill up with refugees. France has no obligation to have our border controls on their shores. Be honest, the UK in the same situation would be the first to tell them its now their problem. France will leave the exit door open for them as it's our problem.
The rural economy will take a hit. Farmers get a huge chunk of income from the Common Agricultural Policy, backed by the might of French Farmers. Like it or not, our farmers sell into a highly protected and artificially high cost market because our cost of production is greater than many other world producers but the economic of farming mean they only just get by. Farage was promising cheaper food (which we'll all gladly rush to buy) because we can import from anywhere. NFU hasn't got anywhere near the clout to force the UK government to stop this or give even more money in subsidies as they become even less competitive. Nope, the rural economy will take a lot of pain. We'll not have to worry about immigrant fruit pickers and packers in Lincolnshire, there'll be no business there to employ them. Fruit and veg will become imports from South America, South Africa and anywhere else. The locals can then take advantage of the freefall in house prices that could follow.
We'll all have to have new 'non-EU' passports, and be charged £60 each for them. The public will declare this an outrage but if we're not in the EU, we're not entitled to them.
Going on holiday will become a major pain in the ass and more expensive. Already my holiday this summer has gone up 10% in the last week just because of the currency freefall. No more rushing to the tunnel and being waved through in a trail of unburned fuel from our beloved sportscars. Full, proper immigration checks will be required on entering the EU - unless we agree to the free movement of people, which we don't seem to want.
Thats if we can navigate the queues and queues of trucks backing up along the motorway. Yep, lets bring back full customs paperwork and documented declaration checks for the hundreds of thousands of trucks crossing each year between UK and Europe. It will add a cost to importing or exporting goods between the UK and Europe in terms of time - each hour a truck has to wait might add £50 to the cost of the transiting load in drivers time, vehicle standing charges and thats before the additional administrative cost of the paperwork. Think US / Mexico or US / Canada border. We might overcome it with a Swiss or Norwegian style arrangement. But that means accepting freedom of movement of people and contributing the EU budget and we don't want that.
Fuel may become more expensive. It's traded in USD, along with most other major commodities. Ok if our economy is strong, but 50/50 it'll go the other way.
We may trade a young working immigrant workforce for a resentful number of expats who's idilic life in Spain, France, Gibraltar, Italy (insert your own European country...) has suddenly become uncomfortable, complicated and expensive. We'll welcome back our pensioners, then moan that we still can't get doctors appointments or houses as our retired non-working and ageing countrymen start to put as much, if not more strain on public services and join housing queues.
Scotland will have another referendum. This time it will vote to leave the UK. Great, our beloved country is now fractured and broken. Nicola Sturgeon may cut a deal with the EU and Scotland remains in the EU. If I were an international company looking for a domicile in an English speaking EU country, I'd very quickly look north of the border and move my high value jobs there. We'll always share a landmass and language so trade will continue with England. Scotland will take the Euro and, assuming it does survive and I accept there is doubt about this, the currency will work very well against the devalued pound. Scotland doesn't export much to England anyway, so good jobs and favourable currency will make imports from England cheaper.
They'll probably negotiate dual nationality for Scottish residents enabling them to hold a rUK passport and European one. Much easier to move around with. And they'll still get the vast sums of European Social Fund money that goes on projects in the poorer parts of the Union. You know, the major city and infrastructure redevelopment projects you see everywhere with the Blue EU roundel on them 'part funded by the EU'. England of course, has voted to give up any entitlement to this money so I hope the UK government of the day can still find this money. I can't see it ever being much of a priority though.
Ireland may join the party, creating a Northern Arc that remains in the EU, linking Europe and Ireland via a land bridge across Scotland. Tariff free, customs light, and lower cost. It'll become a priority route for the European Project, a TEN-T transport corridor, which benefits from significant infrastructure funding. The existing TEN-T corridors across England that focus €B's in European support and funding and investment on major road and rail corridors to improve the free movement of people and goods will cease to exist, along with the investment. I hope UK Government has the deep pockets to step in.
We may have to have EU border controls between England and Scotland. But if cameras can catch me speeding and parking and not paying my road tax and paying my congestion charge, it's likely a system will be developed to mostly avoid this.
For the life of me, I can't see what was so terrible about being in the EU. Sure, it isn't perfect, but no system is. People are unhappy about much in this country, but the EU doesn't build schools or hospitals or train teachers and doctors? It doesn't set planning policy or build houses. These are matters the UK government has failed us on for decades. The EU doesn't set the priorities of the country or make the laws. The UK may have to transpose some stuff, but it is usually designed with our benefit in mind, to create opportunity, lower barriers and reduce cost. And don't start with the £350m. Even Farage was back-peddling in the EU parliament yesterday denying he made the claim.
I've no doubt we are a net contributor to the EU. But London is a net contributor the UK, and town centres and net contributors in city regions. It is impossible to have a system where everyone takes out more than they contribute and dangerous to have a situation where investment is focused only on wealth creators. That seems to me to be the very antithesis of why people have voted in the way they did - rural Lincolnshire felt it wasn't benefitting enough. It wants more than it contributes, fiscally, and so it should. But, taking the UK position, we seem to have said collectively that if the UK were London, we don't want to be funding 'lincolnshire' lame duck economies in Europe as they're holding us back. This is pretty sad. We are the 5th largest economy apparently and the 'social' aspect of the EU is understandably to use our collective wealth to support the whole community to grow.
There will be positives to being out and we have now to work hard to make it work, but I cannot see where the great utopia is that makes it so much better than pre-23rd and worth pain for the next decade probably.
Not quite the response I set out writing, but rant over.
By the way, where is Gove? Notable by his absence since 23rd.
Our biggest problem IMO is the universally poor quality, both morally and intellectually, of our politicians, both in and out of the EU. They are playing games with everyone else's lives, many of which they've already ruined.
On your point about Kent filling up with refugees, if the UK is going to be so desperate a place as you suggest, why would they want to come here? Surely they'd be better off in France or Germany?
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 29th June 10:34
stitched said:
He comes across as something of a clown I agree.
Have you ever spoken to a clown who is not working? The trade is one of the most respected in their environment, generally hardworking and highly intelligent people.
Oh and the entry requirements and length of training make your career choice rather laughable.
Not a personal dig Derek, I value your posts and insight, just pointing out that not many clowns are stupid.
Or funny.Have you ever spoken to a clown who is not working? The trade is one of the most respected in their environment, generally hardworking and highly intelligent people.
Oh and the entry requirements and length of training make your career choice rather laughable.
Not a personal dig Derek, I value your posts and insight, just pointing out that not many clowns are stupid.
Timmy40 said:
There is much to be done. First we must return our attention to the long neglected Commonwealth. We have been an absent parent to that particular family of Nations.
A tour by our Royalty will be a good start accompanied by ships of the line ( i'd suggest several battleships should do it ), it will be an opportunity to negotiate trade terms that will ensure the onoing prosperity of theempire commonwealth by placing London firmly at the centre of a global network of trade.
There are over 1 billion subjects in theempire commonwealth and it's time we sat at the table on equal terms with the Americans and Chinese as the head of that billion souls.
I may be slighlty teasing but I honestly think this is what my wifes Nan thinks will happen
I was going to ask if anyone had mentioned the Commonwealth, but thought I'd check first. Yes, it's a bit dusty and neglected, but it represents 17% of global GDP and most of its members don't hate us. Might be worth a look.A tour by our Royalty will be a good start accompanied by ships of the line ( i'd suggest several battleships should do it ), it will be an opportunity to negotiate trade terms that will ensure the onoing prosperity of the
There are over 1 billion subjects in the
I may be slighlty teasing but I honestly think this is what my wifes Nan thinks will happen
230TE said:
Timmy40 said:
There is much to be done. First we must return our attention to the long neglected Commonwealth. We have been an absent parent to that particular family of Nations.
A tour by our Royalty will be a good start accompanied by ships of the line ( i'd suggest several battleships should do it ), it will be an opportunity to negotiate trade terms that will ensure the onoing prosperity of theempire commonwealth by placing London firmly at the centre of a global network of trade.
There are over 1 billion subjects in theempire commonwealth and it's time we sat at the table on equal terms with the Americans and Chinese as the head of that billion souls.
I may be slighlty teasing but I honestly think this is what my wifes Nan thinks will happen
I was going to ask if anyone had mentioned the Commonwealth, but thought I'd check first. Yes, it's a bit dusty and neglected, but it represents 17% of global GDP and most of its members don't hate us. Might be worth a look.A tour by our Royalty will be a good start accompanied by ships of the line ( i'd suggest several battleships should do it ), it will be an opportunity to negotiate trade terms that will ensure the onoing prosperity of the
There are over 1 billion subjects in the
I may be slighlty teasing but I honestly think this is what my wifes Nan thinks will happen
Farage has even apologised to the NZ government for the actions of his parents generation.
It took 20 years for NZ's economy to recover from that blow. They may not hate the UK but will they trust the UK?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cf...
230TE said:
I was going to ask if anyone had mentioned the Commonwealth, but thought I'd check first. Yes, it's a bit dusty and neglected, but it represents 17% of global GDP and most of its members don't hate us. Might be worth a look.
What you will find is that emotions such as hatred will not get in the way of mutually beneficial business between many sensible companies or countries. The #1 priority for growth typically prevails.lostkiwi said:
Maybe not hate but lets not forget they were abandoned by Britain in 1973.
Farage has even apologised to the NZ government for the actions of his parents generation.
It took 20 years for NZ's economy to recover from that blow. They may not hate the UK but will they trust the UK?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cf...
Interesting, reads like New Zealand and Australia might be open to the idea if they thought we were serious.Farage has even apologised to the NZ government for the actions of his parents generation.
It took 20 years for NZ's economy to recover from that blow. They may not hate the UK but will they trust the UK?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cf...
kurt535 said:
I've got some:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/2...
siemens have heavily invested in places like great yarmouth, barrow, hull, all major brexit-win result areas, who now look to have achieved their aim getting jonny foreigner investment out. win win win
excellent news, the savings in subsidies will be substantial.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/2...
siemens have heavily invested in places like great yarmouth, barrow, hull, all major brexit-win result areas, who now look to have achieved their aim getting jonny foreigner investment out. win win win
Well, in the theme of trying to be positive it looks as if the FTSE is back on track;
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks-id...
apparently "The index closed at its highest level since April, finishing 3.6 percent higher, at 6,360.06 points."
I wonder if that will be on the BBC headlines tonight ?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks-id...
apparently "The index closed at its highest level since April, finishing 3.6 percent higher, at 6,360.06 points."
I wonder if that will be on the BBC headlines tonight ?
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