Would you change your Ref vote if you could go back time?

[dandarez]

ATG said:

Jonesy23 said:

Zippee said:

It's for reasons such as this that I think we should never have had a referendum, way too important a subject to leave to people who haven't a clue to decide.

And yet the same method is used to choose MPs!

No we don't. Parliamentary elections are completely different than referenda.

You elect an MP on the understanding that the MP will use their own judgement when voting on legislation in Parliament. You are putting your trust in their judgement.

In a referendum Joe Public are making a specific decision. But what actually happens is that it becomes a popularity contest. It becomes an opportunity for a protest vote and a vote of no confidence. That's why referenda are such an astonishingly bad idea if the specific question is really important, because the specific question usually doesn't determine how people vote.

But if we'd voted Remain, you would not be saying any of this would you?

What's really important is why you were not jumping up and down 'prior' to the referendum shouting it's an astonishingly bad idea, 'STOP THE REFERENDUM!' 'IT MUST BE HALTED FORTHWITH!'

But you didn't, did you?

Accept it.
I sort of wish Remain had won now. I'd have accepted it and got on with my life. The same as I have always done.

You have to accept in life that obstacles appear, things don't always go the way you want them.
Move on.

[Ed.]

Mario149 said:

Otispunkmeyer said:

A major reason for me wanting out is the way this lot carry on:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/prime-m...

When voting I hadn't actually decied which way to go even walking to the station. I stood in front of the booth for 10 minutes trying to go through the logic again in my head. But I just couldn't come down on remain because these guys disgust me so much.

I mean if they kicked him and some of his cronies out and they were replaced by people with a less binary vision (Juncker seems very much to be a my way or no way person) then I'd be inclined to change my mind. As long as they are pulling the strings I don't feel the EU has a good future ahead of it in the long term. My vote really is against the EU as a bureaucratic monster headed by undemocratic power vultures. It was not a vote against Europe.

I like being in Europe. I like Europe. I like the people. But the EU? No. It is death by a 1000 cuts creeping bureaucracy that is underhandedly trying to force some kind of unified utopia onto all members like a one sizes fits all glove. With the best will in the world I'd say that is unrealistic.

I do realist of course that the British Government, has in the past, been equally mad with its stifling bureaucracy and power hungry cretins. I am not old enough to have lived through that time, but I am not daft enough to think our ways have been or are much better. But at least we have a more immediate say about who runs the show here and we can do something about them. I get the feeling you'd have crow-bar Jean Claude Juncker's cold dead body off the EU throne before he'd give it up!

Yeah, I can def see that EU officials don't make it easy to like them! But for me, I was just thinking that none of these people are forever. Juncker will be gone in 3 years time etc

Will his replacement be softer or more of a hardliner to quash the rebellions in the other European countries wanting to leave?
Nobody knows and only a select few will have a say on it.

[lostkiwi]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Only if you tell me what will happen when the basket case economies of the EU come looking for their next bailout which will be in a few months time, and they find that the EU`s second greatest contributor of funds INTO EU coffers has left, leaving only Germany as a significant contributor INTO EU coffers/ How long do you think Germany, and the German people are going to be willing to bear the financial brunt of keeping the failed and failing EU alive?
Why do you think hundreds of thousands of EU nationals want to get INTO the UK every year. Simple answer, because there are virtually no jobs in the EU, with colossal levels of unemployment in many EU countries (Even France FFS)
It will be a matter of when, not if, the rotten, corrupt sinking SS EU slides deservedly beneath the waves, and fortunately, the UK has launched itself off in a lifeboat, rather than handcuffing itself to the railings of the EU`s SS Titanic.

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 28th June 10:10

The problem is, as far as I'm concerned and anyone who realizes that whatever happens we'll still have to trade with the EU in the future, is that while we would hypothetically be in a life boat, that lifeboat would still be tied to the ship's railing. If the EU goes down, we will too. So if leaving precipitates it's sinking, we'll have brought havoc on ourselves.

And of course, that all relies on your initial assumption that the EU is sinking to start with, which most people in the know don't agree with.

It is not an assumption it is fact, the EU is in deep trouble already, only being kept afloat by Germany and the UK manning the pumps. Now that the UK has said F8ck this for a waste of time, it will only be a matter of time before Germany and the German people say they have enough of flogging themselves to keep the basket cases in its midst afloat.
Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France and some of the newly admitted Eastern European states all with colossal levels of unemployment if they think they are `doing well'

Economically the EU as a whole is doing better than the UK.
The EU has a positive balance of payments.
The UK has a negative balance of payments.

The UK leaving the EU makes the balance of payments for the EU better than if we stay.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

It is not an assumption it is fact, the EU is in deep trouble already, only being kept afloat by Germany and the UK manning the pumps. Now that the UK has said F8ck this for a waste of time, it will only be a matter of time before Germany and the German people say they have enough of flogging themselves to keep the basket cases in its midst afloat.
Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France and some of the newly admitted Eastern European states all with colossal levels of unemployment if they think they are `doing well'

That the EU will sink is not a fact. And an awful lot of people who understand this way better than we do seem to agree. And I say again, if the EU goes down so will we.

In that case we were always doomed in any case, whether we stayed in or left, at least getting into the lifeboat gives us a chance, however small.

[Otispunkmeyer]

Ed. said:

Mario149 said:

Otispunkmeyer said:

A major reason for me wanting out is the way this lot carry on:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/prime-m...

When voting I hadn't actually decied which way to go even walking to the station. I stood in front of the booth for 10 minutes trying to go through the logic again in my head. But I just couldn't come down on remain because these guys disgust me so much.

I mean if they kicked him and some of his cronies out and they were replaced by people with a less binary vision (Juncker seems very much to be a my way or no way person) then I'd be inclined to change my mind. As long as they are pulling the strings I don't feel the EU has a good future ahead of it in the long term. My vote really is against the EU as a bureaucratic monster headed by undemocratic power vultures. It was not a vote against Europe.

I like being in Europe. I like Europe. I like the people. But the EU? No. It is death by a 1000 cuts creeping bureaucracy that is underhandedly trying to force some kind of unified utopia onto all members like a one sizes fits all glove. With the best will in the world I'd say that is unrealistic.

I do realist of course that the British Government, has in the past, been equally mad with its stifling bureaucracy and power hungry cretins. I am not old enough to have lived through that time, but I am not daft enough to think our ways have been or are much better. But at least we have a more immediate say about who runs the show here and we can do something about them. I get the feeling you'd have crow-bar Jean Claude Juncker's cold dead body off the EU throne before he'd give it up!

Yeah, I can def see that EU officials don't make it easy to like them! But for me, I was just thinking that none of these people are forever. Juncker will be gone in 3 years time etc

Will his replacement be softer or more of a hardliner to quash the rebellions in the other European countries wanting to leave?
Nobody knows and only a select few will have a say on it.

Juncker has been around EU institutions for 30 odd years. I suspect getting rid of his ilk won't be straight forward! They are in it for them and in it forever. They must make their mark on history (and if thats what your goal is I dare say you are not the one for the job)

[Mario149]

Mark Benson said:

And replaced by?

It's not as if they produce a manifesto and allow us to vote for them based on it.

The direction is clear, ever close union and the means and methods ore pooling sovereignty and removing national institutions in favour of pan-European ones.

All the changes is the face at the top, the methods remain the same.

If you believe that is the case and don't like the outcome, that's fine. I'm personally happy with the deal we have, the integration we have, the safeguards we have etc. That said, the reason you state is by far and away the best argument for Brexit as it's ideological. If you don't believe in the aims of the EU and that is your most important reason, it's an open and shut case! If I think differently, that's okay too!

[matsoc]

InfiniteVoltage said:

Mario149 said:

Question just popped into my head: which is the worse democratic betrayal?

1) Ignoring the result of the referendum and staying because it can be seen that a majority no longer support the result

2) Following through on the referendum and leaving, but not delivering any of the promises used to secure that victory.

Exactly this.

As I said in a very embarrassing thread I started a day or so ago, I am one of the foolish that got sucked in to the leave campaign and voted leave. Having seen the repercussions and seen many of the lies quickly exposed, and now also seeing the longer term impacts, I would not hesitate to vote remain given the chance to exercise 'democracy' again.

My current view, which has obviously changed dramatically in such a short time, is that I can see the UK being damaged for years, whilst the EU become closer and a more unified entity. This will make them stronger and they will win the majority of the best trading deals with the rest of the world. The UK could fall behind and our current generations will be paying the price for a long time.

All for what?
For the satisfaction to say that "great, we're British, our public are in control of our lives" ?
But what if our great british public are a bit $hit at controlling our great british lives when it comes to the specific point of rapidly changing global prosperity and stability?
Because at the end of the day everything pins on that specific point.

It allows us to reduce deficit and then reduce the national debt. Once that is being tackled we can then increase funding for public services and also put the UK government and the UK as a whole in a much better position to do trade anywhere in the world.

In theory there is an opportunity for closer EU integration with the skeptical UK leaving. But I think it won't happen, the single current governments do not seem to own the necessarly power and consensus to make any relevant action.
France is tucked by job reform, Germany took over 1 million of refuges and the population is not so happy about it, Italy more than ever is a country deeply divided, areas of the centre-north are very EU integrated and see their export of high quality products always growing, most of the centre south is doomed with spreading illegality and 50%+ youth unemployment.

[Mark Benson]

Mario149 said:

Mark Benson said:

And replaced by?

It's not as if they produce a manifesto and allow us to vote for them based on it.

The direction is clear, ever close union and the means and methods ore pooling sovereignty and removing national institutions in favour of pan-European ones.

All the changes is the face at the top, the methods remain the same.

If you believe that is the case and don't like the outcome, that's fine. I'm personally happy with the deal we have, the integration we have, the safeguards we have etc. That said, the reason you state is by far and away the best argument for Brexit as it's ideological. If you don't believe in the aims of the EU and that is your most important reason, it's an open and shut case! If I think differently, that's okay too!

It most certainly is.
It can make for interesting discussion, I had a very rough time at a BBQ on Sunday among a gang (and I mean that in the truest sense) of teachers and lecturers who simply could not countenance how I could think differently to them.
Luckily I have a thick skin and a general contempt of intolerant people.
Later in the afternoon a couple of them found me and we were able to have an intelligent and thought provoking discussion without the most entrenched (and by then loudly drunk) members of their group present.

[Pan Pan Pan]

lostkiwi said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Only if you tell me what will happen when the basket case economies of the EU come looking for their next bailout which will be in a few months time, and they find that the EU`s second greatest contributor of funds INTO EU coffers has left, leaving only Germany as a significant contributor INTO EU coffers/ How long do you think Germany, and the German people are going to be willing to bear the financial brunt of keeping the failed and failing EU alive?
Why do you think hundreds of thousands of EU nationals want to get INTO the UK every year. Simple answer, because there are virtually no jobs in the EU, with colossal levels of unemployment in many EU countries (Even France FFS)
It will be a matter of when, not if, the rotten, corrupt sinking SS EU slides deservedly beneath the waves, and fortunately, the UK has launched itself off in a lifeboat, rather than handcuffing itself to the railings of the EU`s SS Titanic.

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 28th June 10:10

The problem is, as far as I'm concerned and anyone who realizes that whatever happens we'll still have to trade with the EU in the future, is that while we would hypothetically be in a life boat, that lifeboat would still be tied to the ship's railing. If the EU goes down, we will too. So if leaving precipitates it's sinking, we'll have brought havoc on ourselves.

And of course, that all relies on your initial assumption that the EU is sinking to start with, which most people in the know don't agree with.

It is not an assumption it is fact, the EU is in deep trouble already, only being kept afloat by Germany and the UK manning the pumps. Now that the UK has said F8ck this for a waste of time, it will only be a matter of time before Germany and the German people say they have enough of flogging themselves to keep the basket cases in its midst afloat.
Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France and some of the newly admitted Eastern European states all with colossal levels of unemployment if they think they are `doing well'

Economically the EU as a whole is doing better than the UK.
The EU has a positive balance of payments.
The UK has a negative balance of payments.

The UK leaving the EU makes the balance of payments for the EU better than if we stay.

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

[AC43]

MarshPhantom said:

otolith said:

Eric Mc said:

Or maybe the time in the lead up to the referendum should have been spent educating people rather than engaging in facile and downright imbecilic argument.

This, in spades. Both sides indulged in Blair style dodgy-dossier politics - acting like greasy lawyers in a cheap courtroom drama with the intent to win by any means.

True, but it turned out Remain were telling the truth and Leave lied about everything.

Strange that.

Indy Ref Mk 11.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Don't worry When all of the headless chickens have finally stopped charging around screaming doom and gloom, and calmed down, and the EU sinks beneath the waves of basket case bail outs, and the mass unemployment that exists NOW in the EU, people will see that getting off the sinking ship was the right thing to do after all.

I'd like to order one of your finest crystal balls please, express delivery.

Fine, if you send me one of yours, the one that says the EU is doing wonderfully at the moment, I promise not to notice the huge cracks in it.

We don't have to exchange crystal balls (oo er matron!). You can't prove the EU is going under and I can't prove it's going to be amazing. It's a guess, could go either way and anyone who claims they know otherwise is misleading themselves. So I refer back to one of my earlier posts. What we *do* know is that right now we're doing damage, and we will do all while we're exiting and setting up.

So since we're not clairvoyant, the economic choice comes down to:

- do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result
- don't do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result

And for some reason, we've chosen the first option, it's like we've become a nation of masochists.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Mark Benson said:

Mario149 said:

Mark Benson said:

And replaced by?

It's not as if they produce a manifesto and allow us to vote for them based on it.

The direction is clear, ever close union and the means and methods ore pooling sovereignty and removing national institutions in favour of pan-European ones.

All the changes is the face at the top, the methods remain the same.

If you believe that is the case and don't like the outcome, that's fine. I'm personally happy with the deal we have, the integration we have, the safeguards we have etc. That said, the reason you state is by far and away the best argument for Brexit as it's ideological. If you don't believe in the aims of the EU and that is your most important reason, it's an open and shut case! If I think differently, that's okay too!

It most certainly is.
It can make for interesting discussion, I had a very rough time at a BBQ on Sunday among a gang (and I mean that in the truest sense) of teachers and lecturers who simply could not countenance how I could think differently to them.
Luckily I have a thick skin and a general contempt of intolerant people.
Later in the afternoon a couple of them found me and we were able to have an intelligent and thought provoking discussion without the most entrenched (and by then loudly drunk) members of their group present.

Many of my relatives in Belgium, France, and some in Germany all said that the UK leaving the EU was the correct thing for the UK to do, Quite a few are hoping that it will trigger referenda in their countries, A deep loathing of what the EU has become exists widely in Europe.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

In that case we were always doomed in any case, whether we stayed in or left, at least getting into the lifeboat gives us a chance, however small.

Yep, see what you're saying. I just can't see how there'd be a chance at all though. We're never going to be free of Europe in trade terms, at least not anytime in the remotely near future. Sure their share may go from 45% to 30% if we increase trad elsewhere, but either way, if they go under we're taking a massive hit. I'd rather stick around and stop it happening in the first place. This is obviously assuming it will need the saving you think it does, which I do not.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Don't worry When all of the headless chickens have finally stopped charging around screaming doom and gloom, and calmed down, and the EU sinks beneath the waves of basket case bail outs, and the mass unemployment that exists NOW in the EU, people will see that getting off the sinking ship was the right thing to do after all.

I'd like to order one of your finest crystal balls please, express delivery.

Fine, if you send me one of yours, the one that says the EU is doing wonderfully at the moment, I promise not to notice the huge cracks in it.

We don't have to exchange crystal balls (oo er matron!). You can't prove the EU is going under and I can't prove it's going to be amazing. It's a guess, could go either way and anyone who claims they know otherwise is misleading themselves. So I refer back to one of my earlier posts. What we *do* know is that right now we're doing damage, and we will do all while we're exiting and setting up.

So since we're not clairvoyant, the economic choice comes down to:

- do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result
- don't do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result

And for some reason, we've chosen the first option, it's like we've become a nation of masochists.

Dictators never like it when their minions show some courage, and refuse to do what they are told, so we have to expect some hard times imposed artificially by the dictators.
A Brussels EU official angry with the result, said that the UK will be made to pay for having the temerity to vote leave. The great thing was that his attitude, and comments demonstrated EXACTLY why the UK voted to leave the EU.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Dictators never like it when their minions show some courage, and refuse to do what they are told, so we have to expect some hard times imposed artificially by the dictators.
A Brussels EU official angry with the result, said that the UK will be made to pay for having the temerity to vote leave. The great thing was that his attitude, and comments demonstrated EXACTLY why the UK voted to leave the EU.

I don't have a problem with the EU trying to shaft us. It's natural, they need to look after themselves. To think otherwise is unwise. If Scotland had decided to leave the UK the other year, we would have done our best to take them to the cleaners as well. It's how it all works, even if it's not very "nice". And it's also and obvious reason why it's better to stay together, you don't have to compete, you pool resources and kick ass together.

[Mark Benson]

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

I think most commentator would agree though, that the concept of the Euro is fundamentally flawed. By entering into monetary union without tying together the members' fiscal regimes, it was always clear that economies like Greece would struggle without the ability to devalue and Germany would dominate.

the Euro should have been delayed until fiscal harmony had been achieved and the conditions for entry should have been stricter (and enforce more strongly).

The Euro is not the EU, that's clear but it's one of the instruments they are using to impose ever closer union, ergo if the Euro is fundamentally flawed then it augers badly for the rest of the integration measures.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

If you believe that the EU is not fundamentally flawed, then there is no hope for you. Strange how you believe that the UK is in trouble owing to its decision to leave the EU, and many doom and gloom remainers keep on saying this could last for years (when the UK has one of the strongest economies in the EU) but seem optimistic that the EU which really IS in deep financial and employment trouble, is just `going through a rough time' Just wait until the economic basket cases in the EU start asking for more bail outs, If you think this is a `rough time' for the EU, as the saying goes, you ain`t seen nothing yet. and just when its second greatest net contributor of funds INTO EU coffers (You know the difference between putting things in, and taking them out. right?) has decided to leave. Oh Dear.

[andy_s]

afrochicken said:

andy_s said:

AJL308 said:

vonuber said:

I've heard from at least 3 people who didn't vote because they thought it wouldn't matter. All under 25 too.

Muppets.

Which is precisely why the 'young' have no right at all to abuse the 'old'.

Turnout
18-24: 36%
25-34: 58%
35-44: 72%
45-54: 75%
55-64: 81%
65+: 83%

That turnout stat is being posted in nearly every referendum thread, but it's leaving out the following;

"Sky isn't claiming this is collected data - it's projected, and a subsequent tweet said it was based on "9+/10 certainty to vote, usually/always votes, voted/ineligible at GE2015". I've asked for more information on what this means, but for now it's enough to say it's nothing more than a guess."

The Yougov poll gives the following



That suggests 88% turnout among 18-24. However, it's a sample of 1652 people. Both are just guesses, but at least the Yougov isn't a guess based on projected data. I think it's wrong to keep repeating the 36& turnout stat when we have no idea what the true figure is.

Not that anyone will stop saying it, of course.

Fair one, I was looking around for another source and although there are graphs in FT, Graunad et al showing vote by wealth, education, location, job and any combination of the above, I couldn't find anything definitive on age vs turnout. Interesting.

[Blue62]

Mario149 said:

So since we're not clairvoyant, the economic choice comes down to:

- do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result
- don't do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result

And for some reason, we've chosen the first option, it's like we've become a nation of masochists.

This is exactly the point, anyone with a shred of knowledge knew that an out vote would hurt our economy and jobs, what has surprised many of us, is the damage it is apparently doing to society and the realisation of just how split the UK has become.

Nobody on the Leave side (even their leaders) have any idea of how this will play out in the medium to long term and I personally think that is why Boris and his pals are backtracking. We know we will see lower investment in the short term, a weaker pound, higher taxes and price rises on everyday items along with further spending cuts. The challenge for Leave is to make that hardship worthwhile, but as I listen to my out mates telling me we can make Britain great again and that we now have control back I can't help feeling that, just like Boris, they don't really have a clue.