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Whooooooo are you, ooo ooh, ooo ooh. I really wanna know...
When do we think we'll see the next current EU member state make noises of leaving?
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
I've got a personal theory that the UK will not actually leave the EU unless there is a glut of other referendums announced over the next month or two.
When do we think we'll see the next current EU member state make noises of leaving?
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
I've got a personal theory that the UK will not actually leave the EU unless there is a glut of other referendums announced over the next month or two.
benjj said:
When do we think we'll see the next current EU member state make noises of leaving?
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
No other member state will risk a referendum after the UK one.Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
ralphrj said:
No other member state will risk a referendum after the UK one.
Agreed, at least not before they see the eventual outcome, then in any referendum they can say A or B.As it is the UK General public didn't really know what they were voting for. What we end up with most likely will not be what either side 'promised' but some utterly ridiculous middle ground, in which everyone is disgruntled. The whole thing is a farce to be honest.
ralphrj said:
No other member state will risk a referendum after the UK one.
What makes you say that?Just today I've already spoken with the American Managing Partner of one of the world's largest law firms, a very senior British Military officer, my Romanian Krav Maga instructor, my Polish cleaner and a French friend and they're all, and I mean all, very positive about the future of an independent UK.
And before you ask, I voted to remain. My wife, a French wine merchant, voted to leave.
Fastdruid said:
Italy, they have a referendum coming up (October IIRC) on EU related political reform, while it's not a full blown IN/OUT referendum a sound drubbing might be the match that breaks the camels back.
Italy cannot hold an IN/OUT referendum. They have laws which prevent referenda on international treaties. Puggit said:
Fastdruid said:
Italy, they have a referendum coming up (October IIRC) on EU related political reform, while it's not a full blown IN/OUT referendum a sound drubbing might be the match that breaks the camels back.
Italy cannot hold an IN/OUT referendum. They have laws which prevent referenda on international treaties. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
ralphrj said:
benjj said:
When do we think we'll see the next current EU member state make noises of leaving?
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
No other member state will risk a referendum after the UK one.Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
Some countries, like the Czechs, are more Eurosceptic than us! They'd jump at the f chance if they were allowed one.
The key word with all is them being 'allowed' a referendum.
dandarez said:
I think you need to take a travel across Europe.
Some countries, like the Czechs, are more Eurosceptic than us! They'd jump at the f chance if they were allowed one.
The key word with all is them being 'allowed' a referendum.
That's my point, unless there is a populist anti-EU party in power they won't be granted a referendum.Some countries, like the Czechs, are more Eurosceptic than us! They'd jump at the f chance if they were allowed one.
The key word with all is them being 'allowed' a referendum.
Fastdruid said:
Indeed they can't but non the less they may be next
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
pointless link - im not paying for news available free elsewhere.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
benjj said:
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
From the Sunday Times yesterday...
SystemParanoia said:
Fastdruid said:
Indeed they can't but non the less they may be next
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
pointless link - im not paying for news available free elsewhere.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
Fastdruid said:
Italy, they have a referendum coming up (October IIRC) on EU related political reform, while it's not a full blown IN/OUT referendum a sound drubbing might be the match that breaks the camels back.
Talking of what we don't know eh?As said before, and reinforced by others above, art. 75 of the Constitutional law forbids referendums on matters regarding international treaties.
The October referendum will be to amend the law where it defines the number of components and functions of the equivalent of the House of Lords, reducing size and functions. Hence nothing to do with the EU.
Enricogto said:
Fastdruid said:
Italy, they have a referendum coming up (October IIRC) on EU related political reform, while it's not a full blown IN/OUT referendum a sound drubbing might be the match that breaks the camels back.
Talking of what we don't know eh?As said before, and reinforced by others above, art. 75 of the Constitutional law forbids referendums on matters regarding international treaties.
The October referendum will be to amend the law where it defines the number of components and functions of the equivalent of the House of Lords, reducing size and functions. Hence nothing to do with the EU.
The next referendum to be held in the EU takes place in Italy in October. It is not about the union but about Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms. The Italian prime minister is taking a gamble which is no less risky than David Cameron did.
He is asking the Italians to agree a number of reforms to streamline their political system. The proposals are sensible. But Italians view the referendum as an opportunity for a midterm anti-government vote. Mr Renzi promised he would resign if he loses. If he does, it will have been a monumental error of judgment on the scale of Mr Cameron’s. Opinion polls have been showing a small lead for Yes but they are likely to be as unreliable as those in the UK. My Italian friends are telling me Mr Renzi may well lose, in which case he would either resign immediately or call elections in early 2017.
The implications of Brexit for Italy are extremely troubling for three reasons. First, consider the economic impact. Italy’s economy has been in a weak recovery after a long recession. The British vote will have a significant effect on growth in the eurozone. But for Italy this means a reversion to a growth rate to below 1 per cent or worse.
Second, watch out for the Italian banks, which are woefully undercapitalised. A recent scheme to recapitalise the system has been a disappointment. The only options left to save it are a programme under the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which Mr Renzi will surely resist, or a break with a long list of EU rules on competition policy and bank bailouts.
Third, and most important, the political impact of a lost referendum will be disastrous. Either Mr Renzi keeps his promise to resign or he limps on to the next election. The technical details of the scenario that would then prevail are complex but the party most likely to benefit is the populist anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Beppe Grillo, its leader, last week reiterated his call for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the eurozone. As the results of the recent mayoral elections in Rome and Turin have shown, Mr Grillo’s party should not be underestimated.
Fastdruid said:
SystemParanoia said:
Fastdruid said:
Indeed they can't but non the less they may be next
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
pointless link - im not paying for news available free elsewhere.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/009468b0-3b89-11e6-8716-...
ralphrj said:
benjj said:
When do we think we'll see the next current EU member state make noises of leaving?
Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
No other member state will risk a referendum after the UK one.Clearly a lot of support for potential exit in Greece, Sweden, Portugal and others. France started to be talked about a lot too. I recently read that 55% of the French public would like to have the opportunity to vote in an EU membership referendum and that 48% have indicated they'd vote to leave. That's not too dissimilar to what was polled for us and look what happened.
Newc said:
Plenty of rumbling in Denmark and Sweden too.
It's all the pickled cabbage they eat. Btw I recall pre referendum the Beeb reporting that in a poll 44% of Swedes said they'd vote to leave the EU, when asked how they would vote *IF the UK had already voted leave that changed to 66% would vote leave!
Timmy40 said:
Btw I recall pre referendum the Beeb reporting that in a poll 44% of Swedes said they'd vote to leave the EU, when asked how they would vote *IF the UK had already voted leave that changed to 66% would vote leave!
Sweden and UK have a lot in common in the EU. Not being members of the Euro for a start, but also quite similar voting records. Without us to hold their hand, they'll feel a little isolated. Norway obviously isn't in the EU, Swedes don't consider Finland part of Scandinavia, and frankly they look down at the Danish!Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff