Lib Dems: Making a great comeback?
Discussion
BlackLabel said:
No - it's local elections, which they always do quite well in, and a protest vote.
BlackLabel said:
I haven't seen the numbers, but I'd bet on it being that the Lib Dem numbers held whilst the big two collapsed, rather than a surge in votes for the Lib Dems.
REALIST123 said:
Just a protest vote, surely?
Just pressure being put on the other idiots to do what the electorate expect. Once Brexit is done, one way or the other, May f
ks off and we have a GE, I’d expect the LDs to be back where they belong.
Or maybe the minority in another coalition.
That's a very positive spin. The LDs want to remain don't they?Just pressure being put on the other idiots to do what the electorate expect. Once Brexit is done, one way or the other, May f
ks off and we have a GE, I’d expect the LDs to be back where they belong. Or maybe the minority in another coalition.
Bill said:
REALIST123 said:
Just a protest vote, surely?
Just pressure being put on the other idiots to do what the electorate expect. Once Brexit is done, one way or the other, May fks off and we have a GE, I’d expect the LDs to be back where they belong.
Or maybe the minority in another coalition.
That's a very positive spin. The LDs want to remain don't they?Just pressure being put on the other idiots to do what the electorate expect. Once Brexit is done, one way or the other, May f
ks off and we have a GE, I’d expect the LDs to be back where they belong. Or maybe the minority in another coalition.
Many, if not most of their gains are in areas where there was a strong vote to leave according to one of their spokes people today.
They take that as a change of mind and a vote to stay. I’m not so sure that’s anything but wishful thinking.
It seems feasible to me that a message has been sent to May that there’s great dissatisfaction over her recent chaotic government. (If it was needed!). Who else was worth voting for to do that?
UKIP is dead; Brexit party didn’t field candidates; The Greens are just as pro EU as the LDs, and they bring other baggage that even the LDs don’t have.
Not voting could well have meant that the Tories and Labour would have maintained their positions and palmed off the low turn out.
If this is what’s happened in the locals how will she think the Euros will go? Neither she nor the EU will want a bunch of Brexit Party MEPs over there but it looks like it’ll be that or we leave with a reasonable deal.
We’ll see.
I doubt very much we’ll ever see PM Cable.........
REALIST123 said:
I doubt very much we’ll ever see PM Cable.........
Hopefully not.I think trying to put any spin on it other than very few like the Tories, and to a lesser extent Labour, just shows your own bias.
It could be leavers wanting hard Brexit or a decent BRINO deal, or remainers protesting the government's incompetence. Who knows? But bear in mind UKIP have taken a kicking too.
I had a choice of Conservative, Labour or Liberal in my area (Tory). I spoiled the paper because I couldn't support any of them. I suspect a lot of people across the country, myself included, wanted to punish the Conservatives over Brexit and disaffected Tories don't vote Labour. I think many people faced with my limited choice would have voted Liberal or if they had a wider choice, Green or Independent.
So this Lib Dem surge is a flash in the pan. Their only hope in a General Election is if they can position themselves as the only Remain party but I think Labour will cover that with some policies keeping remain as an option.
I agree UKIP are a busted flush. My gut tells me Farage and co are going to clean up in the Euro Elections and the really interesting question is how they would perform if they set out their stall as a hard Brexit party at a GE. It seems clear that neither Conservatives or Labour will be able to get a hard Brexit through Parliament and the leadership of both is opposed to it so why would anyone in favour of that option vote for either of those parties at a GE again? The next GE may be more about Leave v Remain than the traditional competition between parties and their policies.
So this Lib Dem surge is a flash in the pan. Their only hope in a General Election is if they can position themselves as the only Remain party but I think Labour will cover that with some policies keeping remain as an option.
I agree UKIP are a busted flush. My gut tells me Farage and co are going to clean up in the Euro Elections and the really interesting question is how they would perform if they set out their stall as a hard Brexit party at a GE. It seems clear that neither Conservatives or Labour will be able to get a hard Brexit through Parliament and the leadership of both is opposed to it so why would anyone in favour of that option vote for either of those parties at a GE again? The next GE may be more about Leave v Remain than the traditional competition between parties and their policies.
Edited by Taylor James on Friday 3rd May 19:20
Taylor James said:
I had a choice of Conservative, Labour or Liberal in my area (Tory). I spoiled the paper because I couldn't support any of them. I suspect a lot of people across the country, myself included, wanted to punish the Conservatives over Brexit and disaffected Tories don't vote Labour. I think many people faced with my limited choice would have voted Liberal or if they had a wider choice, Green or Independent.
So this Lib Dem surge is a flash in the pan. They're only hope in a General Election is if they can position themselves as the only Remain party but I think Labour will cover that with some policies keeping remain as an option.
I agree UKIP are a busted flush. My gut tells me Farage and co are going to clean up in the Euro Elections and the really interesting question is how they would perform if they set out their stall as a hard Brexit party at a GE. It seems clear that neither Conservatives or Labour will be able to get a hard Brexit through Parliament and the leadership of both is opposed to it so why would anyone in favour of that option vote for either of those parties at a GE again? The next GE may be more about Leave v Remain than the traditional competition between parties and their policies.
The next GE is scheduled for May 2022. We'll have left by then. I think it will not be about something that has already happened, but the result of the decision. The consensus seems to be that there will be a bit of a downturn in the short term (at least) and the electorate might again want to punish the tories without the problem of voting remain if they go with the libdems.So this Lib Dem surge is a flash in the pan. They're only hope in a General Election is if they can position themselves as the only Remain party but I think Labour will cover that with some policies keeping remain as an option.
I agree UKIP are a busted flush. My gut tells me Farage and co are going to clean up in the Euro Elections and the really interesting question is how they would perform if they set out their stall as a hard Brexit party at a GE. It seems clear that neither Conservatives or Labour will be able to get a hard Brexit through Parliament and the leadership of both is opposed to it so why would anyone in favour of that option vote for either of those parties at a GE again? The next GE may be more about Leave v Remain than the traditional competition between parties and their policies.
The libdems are grafters at local level and this tends to increase support.
Derek Smith said:
The next GE is scheduled for May 2022. We'll have left by then. I think it will not be about something that has already happened, but the result of the decision. The consensus seems to be that there will be a bit of a downturn in the short term (at least) and the electorate might again want to punish the tories without the problem of voting remain if they go with the libdems.
The libdems are grafters at local level and this tends to increase support.
We should have left by then but based on past form I wouldn't bet on it and yes, the next GE is scheduled for 2022 but can the Conservatives hold on for that long?The libdems are grafters at local level and this tends to increase support.
So I agree with your analysis if we go to May 2022. I should have said my thoughts were based on an assumption it would be before then and we would still be in Brexit limbo.
REALIST123 said:
Many, if not most of their gains are in areas where there was a strong vote to leave according to one of their spokes people today.
They take that as a change of mind and a vote to stay. I’m not so sure that’s anything but wishful thinking.
It doesn't need to indicate a change of mind. Nowhere in the country voted 100% for leave or remain. Even in heavily leave-voting areas there were stll many who voted remain. As I see it, they would be the ones in those areas who have just voted LDThey take that as a change of mind and a vote to stay. I’m not so sure that’s anything but wishful thinking.
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