The economic consequences of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

jsf said:

rscott said:

So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.

Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..

The EU imposed tariff rate on none EU wine is 32%. Once we are out of the EU, the EU countries better up their game or we will be consuming none EU wine.

There is a good website on how the USA looks at our distorted wine market here in the EU at http://www.wineinstitute.org/international_trade_p... which shows not only the burdensome tariff regime, but also how much the EU is subsidising the EU wine makers to improve their competitiveness, which the USA consider to be distorting the market even more than would be the case even with the WTO tariff.

We are paying far higher prices than world levels because of our membership of the EU on wine, and many regularly purchased goods such as food.

What, you mean non-EU wine - like Chilean for example - has a 32% tariff applied when imported to the EU?

Chile has a trade agreement with the EU that covers goods and services, it doesn't trade under WTO rules with EU members, unlike most of the world. I posted the link to that very agreement earlier in the week as proof that TA's with services included can be written without FMOL.

If you would like to see the current tariff rates on any goods from any source, use this link http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.asp... you can generate your own report for any product and source and see if there are any FTA in place on that product.

I need to clarify the costs slightly, it's not listed as 32% in the tables, it's 32 euro per 100 litre on the import cost.

If the wine import cost is 100 Euro for 100Litre, then 100 litre of wine would cost an extra 32 Euro additional to the base 100 Euro. = 132 Euro
If the wine import cost is 50 Euro for 100litres, then a 100 litres of wine would cost an extra 32 Euro additional to the base 50 Euro. = 82 Euro

This means that if the market is catering for the lower cost end of the scale, which is where the volume is, the actual tariff percentage is much higher.

If you are catering for the higher end cost market, the effect of the tariff is a lower percentage.

So the less well off are paying more for their goods relative to their income, compared to the more well off.

Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 22 October 22:02

[davepoth]

Sway said:

If the EU doesn't have a free trade deal with the origin country, then yes.

Even with the pound losing strength, this is a net positive.

Pre referendum I posted a link to research which showed a significant drop in the cost of foodstuffs overall - taking into account WTO tariffs applied across the board.

Wheat/maize is similarly massively overpriced in the EU compared to RoW.

Sugar's another example.

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sugar/index_en.htm

Very heavily controlled, with minimum prices and quotas. The market price is above the minimum price at the moment, but has been well below it in the past.

[sidicks]

davepoth said:

Sugar's another example.

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sugar/index_en.htm

Very heavily controlled, with minimum prices and quotas. The market price is above the minimum price at the moment, but has been well below it in the past.

I read somewhere that the CAP costs an average family of four £16 a week in taxes and higher food prices...

[ATG]

sidicks said:

///ajd said:

Really?

One minute brexit is all about SMEs and getting rid of WEEE regulation (as if)

The next its about big business? I thought they all wanted remain, like Nissan?

It's about lots of things. You continuing to make it about one issue (whatever suits your argument at the current time) suggests you'll never understand.

You owe me for a new irony meter.

[sidicks]

ATG said:

You owe me for a new irony meter.

Feel free to explain.

[chrispmartha]

sidicks said:

I read somewhere that the CAP costs an average family of four £16 a week in taxes and higher food prices...

Daily mail? ;-)

[sidicks]

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

How much do you think it costs?

Wikipedia provides an indicative figure of $1000 per annum, with a link than OECD article.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 22:36

[davepoth]

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

Institute for Economic Affairs do?

https://iea.org.uk/blog/abolish-the-cap-let-food-p...

[chrispmartha]

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

How much do you think it costs?

Wikipedia provides an indicative figure of $1000 per annum, with a link than OECD article.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 22:36

It was a joke hence the wink, stop getting your knickers in a twist

[BlackLabel]

90 year old to lose a chunk of her income because of Brexit

[don4l]

chrispmartha said:

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

How much do you think it costs?

Wikipedia provides an indicative figure of $1000 per annum, with a link than OECD article.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 22:36

It was a joke hence the wink, stop getting your knickers in a twist

Odd sort of joke.

I was under the impression that you thought it must be untrue because it was published in the DM.

Still, I'm glad that you cleared up the misunderstanding.

The story that was published in the DM was 100% correct.

Good!

[sidicks]

chrispmartha said:

It was a joke hence the wink, stop getting your knickers in a twist

No knickers twisted here, thanks.

[don4l]

BlackLabel said:

90 year old to lose a chunk of her income because of Brexit

My birthday is in March.

I wonder if Brexit will happen on 15th March.

That would be a fantastic birthday present.

[williamp]

chrispmartha said:

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

How much do you think it costs?

Wikipedia provides an indicative figure of $1000 per annum, with a link than OECD article.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 22:36

It was a joke hence the wink, stop getting your knickers in a twist

wait, Brexit is making knickers twist? Or do they just seem to be getting bigger??

[chrispmartha]

don4l said:

chrispmartha said:

sidicks said:

chrispmartha said:

Daily mail? ;-)

How much do you think it costs?

Wikipedia provides an indicative figure of $1000 per annum, with a link than OECD article.

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 22:36

It was a joke hence the wink, stop getting your knickers in a twist

Odd sort of joke.

I was under the impression that you thought it must be untrue because it was published in the DM.

Still, I'm glad that you cleared up the misunderstanding.

The story that was published in the DM was 100% correct.

Good!

Not really an odd sort if joke, if you think about it, but I concede the written word doesn't contain the tone to get the point across.

Edited by chrispmartha on Saturday 22 October 23:14

[davepoth]

BlackLabel said:

90 year old to lose a chunk of her income because of Brexit

I doubt it'll bother her too much.

[DeltonaS]

davepoth said:

BlackLabel said:

90 year old to lose a chunk of her income because of Brexit

I doubt it'll bother her too much.

I doubt if she's still alive when the Brexit negotiations have been finalized and the UK actually left the EU, if it ever does.

[sidicks]

DeltonaS said:

I doubt if she's still alive when the Brexit negotiations have been finalized and the UK actually left the EU, if it ever does.

Article 50 in March next year - did you not hear this?

[Murph7355]

BlackLabel said:

90 year old to lose a chunk of her income because of Brexit

I'm sure she'll cope.

I suspect she's probably over the moon generally too (if Michael Gove's correct ).

[Cobnapint]

Warnings in the press this morning about loads of banks thinking of packing up and leaving the UK after hearing positions hardening between us the EU.

To be honest, the best thing both sides can do is just SHUT UP until negotiations are concluded.

Theresa May said there would be no running commentary, but she and many of her ministers are already blabbing to the press all sorts of hints about our position, and the press aren't helping by chucking their ten penneth too.

And then you've got the Lib Dems and Co demanding more information 24/7 and that Parliament should have a vote on the deal.

It's all getting a bit out of hand, and we've not even triggered A50 yet. The EU will be no walk over, they're not happy, and they demonstrated it by receiving TM's EU summit speech the other day with stoney silence, and then carried on using French rather than English for the rest of the meeting.