The economic consequences of Brexit

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

road dumbing-down is a perennial issue and has pushed extra local traffic onto motorways.

In the 1970s, Digga snr used to commute from jct13 of the M6, down to Oldbury, jct 2 of the M5 in 30 mins, without fail. You try doing that at 8am nowadays and it's triple the time, if you manage to avoid an accident.

Absolutely every road user I know routinely experience delays - on both business and private journeys - on our roads. We all do. There is a huge social and economic cost attached to this which is simply being swept under the carpet.

Now you're talking! I remember them building the M6/M5 interchange as we lived a couple of miles away. They had some fantastic old heavy plant working on it.

An older chap I know tells a great story about returning home to the West Midlands from a weekend in Blackpool on the M6. As he got down towards Stafford he was so busy eating a cheese and onion barm the landlady of the B&B had made him that he drove off the end of the motorway. It really was not that long ago the the Preston by pass opened.

[stongle]

Digga said:

There needs to be a plan for the UK and getting the rest of the country and the non-FS businesses working better is key. There's rightly a lot of talk about how the FS industry transitions, but there are those (I suspect are in the subset of being Remainers and also working within FS) who don't see the need for the infrastructure spend.

I think the majority may think that way; but there are a huge number in FS whom are pro-Brexit and certainly think that Fiscal Policy is now required - especially as the results of Monetary Policy are NOT reaching all areas of the economy. Trump is clearly pushing this agenda in the US. Trickle down doesn't work well, and the ability to borrow money at cheap rates requires assets in the first place - beyond the realms of many of the JAMs (to use a "May'ism" or Working Class for those challenged by acronym). Its a fair assumption that if you are not upper middle class by know (sizable chunk of Equity in House, several hundred k in pensions and decent cash buffer) you are pretty f**ked under Monetary Policy rules.

The biggest issue facing Monetary Policy and cutting rates to increase money supply is it runs counter to post financial crisis reform. The lowering of interest rates is being eaten up by banks capital and buffer requirements. 0.5% of the rate cut is eaten largely by the regulatory required CET1 ratio.

To make a success of Brexit; we have to instigate Fiscal Policy. There is no point crying into spilt milk re the results - we're coming out. What Government needs to do is realise that the rules have changed and to make an economic success of Brexit they HAVE to think fiscally. Carney has (in fact he has historic form for calling the correct shots). Personally, I think we need to go further. Drawing benefits; well draw a hard hat and a high viz vest and get to work in local community projects for that support. Schools, roads etc all need investment and their are plenty of out of work whom could invest in UK PLC even if its just doing manual tasks. 15 hours a week wouldn't kill them, and certainly solve decades of under spend.

Having a whine off about WTO rules and promises this / promises that, is missing the point. The country was allowed to vote on this and they voted out. Brexit means its incumbent on everyone to pull the country up by its socks and not rely on a vast number of elected clowns (I'm ranting).

[Digga]

I agree.

It is interesting that Trump's neo-Keynsianism is being given cautious endorsement by the OECD who go on to say infrastructure investment is needed to get global GDP off the buffers. There also seems to be signs this is a policy being adhered to by China.

The caution from the OECD relates to the caveat that beggar-thy-neighbour protectionism (or, I suppose non-investment in infrastructure in an attempt to out maneouvere on monetary policy) could mess things up.

https://www.ft.com/content/3884ed8a-b4a6-11e6-ba85...

[Welshbeef]

Digga said:

I agree.

It is interesting that Trump's neo-Keynsianism is being given cautious endorsement by the OECD who go on to say infrastructure investment is needed to get global GDP off the buffers. There also seems to be signs this is a policy being adhered to by China.

The caution from the OECD relates to the caveat that beggar-thy-neighbour protectionism (or, I suppose non-investment in infrastructure in an attempt to out maneouvere on monetary policy) could mess things up.

https://www.ft.com/content/3884ed8a-b4a6-11e6-ba85...

But once all the infra is done then what?
We need growth to pay for these big spends and then start to pay down global debt.

[Digga]

Welshbeef said:

But once all the infra is done then what?
We need growth to pay for these big spends and then start to pay down global debt.

I don't think you are grasping the argument; the infra is not done merely for the pump-priming, stimulus effect, but because it is needed in order to bring productivity into line.

This is not Digga's harebrained scheme to get a few more earthmoving machines out and about, but comes directly from the OECD's report into UK infrastructure.

[walm]

Welshbeef said:

But once all the infra is done then what?
We need growth to pay for these big spends and then start to pay down global debt.

See here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/IEA-...
We have quite high employment so it is really point 2: enhancing productivity.

[Murph7355]

Digga said:

Welshbeef said:

But once all the infra is done then what?
We need growth to pay for these big spends and then start to pay down global debt.

I don't think you are grasping the argument; the infra is not done merely for the pump-priming, stimulus effect, but because it is needed in order to bring productivity into line.

This is not Digga's harebrained scheme to get a few more earthmoving machines out and about, but comes directly from the OECD's report into UK infrastructure.

The problem is you cannot just look at one amount of expenditure versus other countries without also analysing everything else.

e. g. we also have one of the highest deficits in the EU/against a good chunk of those countries. Which may (very likely does) explain why money is not being spent on infrastructure.

So where is all the cash going and how do those areas compare with the same countries? There must be something we are spending more on... but what? Can we cut it and divert it to infrastructure? Or is our revenue significantly lower? (It won't be GDP related as we're top 5...

[Digga]

walm said:

Welshbeef said:

But once all the infra is done then what?
We need growth to pay for these big spends and then start to pay down global debt.

See here: https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/IEA-...
We have quite high employment so it is really point 2: enhancing productivity.

Quite.

Using a very simple analogy, just think of the time and fuel savings for firms who need to move goods about within the UK for manufacturing and distribution.

[s2art]

Murph7355 said:

So where is all the cash going and how do those areas compare with the same countries? There must be something we are spending more on... but what? Can we cut it and divert it to infrastructure? Or is our revenue significantly lower? (It won't be GDP related as we're top 5...

Mainly pensions. And other things related to old age.

[Digga]

The problem is, the UK's overheads are high, but there's no way of cutting them. Underinvesting in infrastructure is a very poor method of attempting to balance things out, simply because it deprives the economy of the necessary potential to increase GDP and efficiency and hence, tax take.

[sparkythecat]

B'stard Child said:

sparkythecat said:

Digga said:

Great post.....

Not really. It contains 5 or 6 acronyms that many of us will need to Google in order to make sense of it.

You want to be spoon fed?

What's wrong with a little effort being needed to fully understand things

I get spoon fed biased pap every day by the media and visit this forum, amongst others, to try and get some different views and develop a better understanding.

[sparkythecat]

M

walm said:

WTO - world trade organisation
UK PLC - United Kingdom
INHO - (typo) IMHO - in my humble opinion
MiFiD - Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (financial regs)
EMIR - European Market Infrastructure Regulation (on derivatives, central counterparties and trade repositories - more financial regs)
Volcker - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcker_Rule
BoE - Bank of England
ECB - European Central Bank
CET1 - Common Equity Tier 1 (capital requirement for a bank to stop another financial crisis part of a "stress test")
IFRS9 - Accounting reporting standard for financial instruments - also an effort to prevent...
GFC - Great Financial Crisis (st-show from 2008-2009)
RBS - Bank with no problem passing stress tests... oh wait!

Thanks for that Walm. It's very helpful. I scored 6/11

Edited by sparkythecat on Wednesday 30th November 17:20

[B'stard Child]

sparkythecat said:

B'stard Child said:

sparkythecat said:

Digga said:

Great post.....

Not really. It contains 5 or 6 acronyms that many of us will need to Google in order to make sense of it.

You want to be spoon fed?

What's wrong with a little effort being needed to fully understand things

I get spoon fed biased pap every day by the media and visit this forum, amongst others, to try and get some different views and develop a better understanding.

Yeah it was a little harsh - sorry - I was going thro a difficult 15 mins

What I should have said is I always find that "knowledge found" is retained better than "knowledge imparted"

[B'stard Child]

sparkythecat said:

M

walm said:

WTO - world trade organisation
UK PLC - United Kingdom
INHO - (typo) IMHO - in my humble opinion
MiFiD - Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (financial regs)
EMIR - European Market Infrastructure Regulation (on derivatives, central counterparties and trade repositories - more financial regs)
Volcker - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcker_Rule
BoE - Bank of England
ECB - European Central Bank
CET1 - Common Equity Tier 1 (capital requirement for a bank to stop another financial crisis part of a "stress test")
IFRS9 - Accounting reporting standard for financial instruments - also an effort to prevent...
GFC - Great Financial Crisis (st-show from 2008-2009)
RBS - Bank with no problem passing stress tests... oh wait!

Thanks for that Walm. It's very helpful. I scored 6/11

I was also 6/11 on initial read rising to 9/11 with help of google till my answers were provided in a comprehensive list - but it wasn't as much fun

[walm]

sparkythecat said:

I scored 6/11

"Check these Brexit acronyms!! You won't BELIEVE number 7!!"
"What kind of Brexitologist are you in just 11 easy questions! Click HERE!"

[sparkythecat]

B'stard Child said:

Yeah it was a little harsh - sorry - I was going thro a difficult 15 mins

What I should have said is I always find that "knowledge found" is retained better than "knowledge imparted"

Thanks for that.

[don4l]

Digga said:

road dumbing-down is a perennial issue and has pushed extra local traffic onto motorways.

In the 1970s, Digga snr used to commute from jct13 of the M6, down to Oldbury, jct 2 of the M5 in 30 mins, without fail. You try doing that at 8am nowadays and it's triple the time, if you manage to avoid an accident.

Absolutely every road user I know routinely experience delays - on both business and private journeys - on our roads. We all do. There is a huge social and economic cost attached to this which is simply being swept under the carpet.

I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.

[B'stard Child]

don4l said:

Digga said:

road dumbing-down is a perennial issue and has pushed extra local traffic onto motorways.

In the 1970s, Digga snr used to commute from jct13 of the M6, down to Oldbury, jct 2 of the M5 in 30 mins, without fail. You try doing that at 8am nowadays and it's triple the time, if you manage to avoid an accident.

Absolutely every road user I know routinely experience delays - on both business and private journeys - on our roads. We all do. There is a huge social and economic cost attached to this which is simply being swept under the carpet.

I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.

Speeds have dropped but the advice still stands - the outside lane is still the slowest lane

Sorry weird day - warped humour - motoring comments in economic impacts of brexit make me happy that it still is Pistonheads

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.

I blame Brexit.

By the way, just to make you feel better, I was 3 in 1984

[B'stard Child]

bmw535i said:

don4l said:

I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.

I blame Brexit.

By the way, just to make you feel better, I was 3 in 1984

I was married in 1984!!!!

That doesn't make me feel better!!!

1990 was a great year - nisi and absolute in same year.....