The economic consequences of Brexit

[kurt535]

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

beemer...i genuinely have no idea other than i see us adopting a NZ or Australian style of health care where first contact you pay.

What was the upshot of this Kurt (your quote below)?
You posted it on the 10th July.

It's 5 months down the line, I guess your Pals scientist partner has made the choice by now, was it Sweden or Switzerland?

I suggested the company might be Pfizer,as I know someone who works there, but it wasn't apparently.
I did ask who the company was but you never got back to me.

I did ask my friend at Pfizer if she knew of any Surrey based pharmaceutical companies that were relocating, and she wasn't aware of any despite her company being one of the biggest (800 employees), just in Surrey.

kurt535 said:

minor snap-shot. family pal's scientist partner works at big pharmaceutical surrey way; she (along with whole dept) has already been offered relocation to either sweden or switzerland to take place in next 6 months....yes, it was due to brexit.

yup..they moved to switzerland. just outside basel.

[don'tbesilly]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

beemer...i genuinely have no idea other than i see us adopting a NZ or Australian style of health care where first contact you pay.

What was the upshot of this Kurt (your quote below)?
You posted it on the 10th July.

It's 5 months down the line, I guess your Pals scientist partner has made the choice by now, was it Sweden or Switzerland?

I suggested the company might be Pfizer,as I know someone who works there, but it wasn't apparently.
I did ask who the company was but you never got back to me.

I did ask my friend at Pfizer if she knew of any Surrey based pharmaceutical companies that were relocating, and she wasn't aware of any despite her company being one of the biggest (800 employees), just in Surrey.

kurt535 said:

minor snap-shot. family pal's scientist partner works at big pharmaceutical surrey way; she (along with whole dept) has already been offered relocation to either sweden or switzerland to take place in next 6 months....yes, it was due to brexit.

yup..they moved to switzerland. just outside basel.

Which company in Surrey did they/do work for?

[kurt535]

sidicks said:

kurt535 said:

fyi lots of companies, especially, city based ones, have taken your advice and seem to like the frankfurt boat a lot more than the grace darling era lifeboat you appear to be sailing in......

///adj said:

But these businesses in some cases contribute 10% of our GDP - thats' 100s of Billions.

You have no problem with that being lost to the treasury? That pays for your services and NHS.

Please can you explain which 'city based companies' which contribute 10% of our GDP are moving to Frankfurt?

Links to statements from the firms concerned would be helpful....

ah, know all!! long time not missed.

sunshine. you are a very small cog in a very big financial wheel.

broking community with international clients have to prepare for losing passporting, especially american firms. maybe you're not as high up the greasy pole as you like to pretend so know less than you profess to.

[kurt535]

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

beemer...i genuinely have no idea other than i see us adopting a NZ or Australian style of health care where first contact you pay.

What was the upshot of this Kurt (your quote below)?
You posted it on the 10th July.

It's 5 months down the line, I guess your Pals scientist partner has made the choice by now, was it Sweden or Switzerland?

I suggested the company might be Pfizer,as I know someone who works there, but it wasn't apparently.
I did ask who the company was but you never got back to me.

I did ask my friend at Pfizer if she knew of any Surrey based pharmaceutical companies that were relocating, and she wasn't aware of any despite her company being one of the biggest (800 employees), just in Surrey.

kurt535 said:

minor snap-shot. family pal's scientist partner works at big pharmaceutical surrey way; she (along with whole dept) has already been offered relocation to either sweden or switzerland to take place in next 6 months....yes, it was due to brexit.

yup..they moved to switzerland. just outside basel.

Which company in Surrey did they/do work for?

none of your nosey business pal.

[sidicks]

kurt535 said:

ah, know all!! long time not missed.

sunshine. you are a very small cog in a very big financial wheel.

broking community with international clients have to prepare for losing passporting, especially american firms. maybe you're not as high up the greasy pole as you like to pretend so know less than you profess to.

So you can offer nothing? No confirmed exits from the UK to Frankfurt?

As expected. Thanks for the confirmation.

So much for the loss of 10% of UK GDP..!!

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 4th December 21:13

[don'tbesilly]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

beemer...i genuinely have no idea other than i see us adopting a NZ or Australian style of health care where first contact you pay.

What was the upshot of this Kurt (your quote below)?
You posted it on the 10th July.

It's 5 months down the line, I guess your Pals scientist partner has made the choice by now, was it Sweden or Switzerland?

I suggested the company might be Pfizer,as I know someone who works there, but it wasn't apparently.
I did ask who the company was but you never got back to me.

I did ask my friend at Pfizer if she knew of any Surrey based pharmaceutical companies that were relocating, and she wasn't aware of any despite her company being one of the biggest (800 employees), just in Surrey.

kurt535 said:

t. family pal's scientist partner works at big pharmaceutical surrey way; she (along with whole dept) has already been offered relocation to either sweden or switzerland to take place in next 6 months....yes, it was due to brexit.

yup..they moved to switzerland. just outside basel.

Which company in Surrey did they/do work for?

none of your nosey business pal.

I knew it was a BS story, you've just confirmed it

[Burwood]

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

beemer...i genuinely have no idea other than i see us adopting a NZ or Australian style of health care where first contact you pay.

What was the upshot of this Kurt (your quote below)?
You posted it on the 10th July.

It's 5 months down the line, I guess your Pals scientist partner has made the choice by now, was it Sweden or Switzerland?

I suggested the company might be Pfizer,as I know someone who works there, but it wasn't apparently.
I did ask who the company was but you never got back to me.

I did ask my friend at Pfizer if she knew of any Surrey based pharmaceutical companies that were relocating, and she wasn't aware of any despite her company being one of the biggest (800 employees), just in Surrey.

kurt535 said:

minor snap-shot. family pal's scientist partner works at big pharmaceutical surrey way; she (along with whole dept) has already been offered relocation to either sweden or switzerland to take place in next 6 months....yes, it was due to brexit.

yup..they moved to switzerland. just outside basel.

Which company in Surrey did they/do work for?

none of your nosey business pal.

We had this discussion months ago and your passive aggressive response adds no more now than it did then. No one in their right mind would transfer to Frankers. It's a st hole

[sidicks]

kurt535 said:

none of your nosey business pal.

Lots of claims but a distinct lack of evidence to support those claims!

[Burwood]

sidicks said:

kurt535 said:

none of your nosey business pal.

Lots of claims but a distinct lack of evidence to support those claims!

wtf is evidence when you have an internet connection and a keyboard

[powerstroke]

Here are the remoners um moaning about a piffling speck on the economy when the biggest and most economicaly damaging bit of legislation has already been sighed sealed and delivered it will fk us and no one seems bothered because the lefty guardian bbc types love it oh well onwards and upwards into the brave new world...

[wc98]

Burwood said:

We had this discussion months ago and your passive aggressive response adds no more now than it did then. No one in their right mind would transfer to Frankers. It's a st hole

i have to laugh . the ph remainers would have us believe they are all " nice" people that know what is best for all the nasty leave voters . true colours being shown now things not going their way .

[Burwood]

The Italians just did us a favour. We could dig back and watch it unravel. It's the beginning of the end for the EU.next. France then germany

[AW111]

Burwood said:

The Italians just did us a favour. We could dig back and watch it unravel. It's the beginning of the end for the EU.next. France then germany

How does Austria electing a left-leaning, pro-EU former green as president fit in your triumphalist narrative?

I have read one spokesman for the defeated right-wing candidate blame Nigel Farage for some part of the loss, saying he "falsely claimed the Freedom Party wanted to leave the EU, which cost us votes"

[Burwood]

AW111 said:

Burwood said:

The Italians just did us a favour. We could dig back and watch it unravel. It's the beginning of the end for the EU.next. France then germany

How does Austria electing a left-leaning, pro-EU former green as president fit in your triumphalist narrative?

I have read one spokesman for the defeated right-wing candidate blame Nigel Farage for some part of the loss, saying he "falsely claimed the Freedom Party wanted to leave the EU, which cost us votes"

What about New Zealand. Their pm just resigned too.

[anonymous-user]

AW111 said:

Burwood said:

The Italians just did us a favour. We could dig back and watch it unravel. It's the beginning of the end for the EU.next. France then germany

How does Austria electing a left-leaning, pro-EU former green as president fit in your triumphalist narrative?

I have read one spokesman for the defeated right-wing candidate blame Nigel Farage for some part of the loss, saying he "falsely claimed the Freedom Party wanted to leave the EU, which cost us votes"

That's funny

I though st Nigel was all against politicians interfering in other countries matters?
Yet he's now popping up everywhere!

[AW111]

To avoid too much thread drift, I have created one on the Austrian result here.

[don'tbesilly]

don'tbesilly said:

Mario149 said:

Tony427 said:

In Mario's example we have a manufacturer of undifferentiated commodity products faced with extensive competition that is making a nett 10% margin manufacturing in the UK.

His business is split 50/50 UK and EU.

He imports all his raw materials and is expecting a 60% tariff on those imports if the raw material cost is 50% of manufacturing cost. As it's a commodity product with little added value and lots of competition 50% raw material cost is probably on the low side. ( Cannot say if a contract is worth £2m or £3m only difference raw material cost import tarffs)

I'd like to know wha traw material product he currently imports where a 60% tariff from the EU would apply.

He is not expecting his foreign competition to face any tariff barriers to the UK market whatsoever.

He is expecting to lose his EU business because of tariffs facing him exporting into the EU.

He is not looking to source his raw materials from non EU suppliers.

He is planning to move to an EU country, where his EU competition is, thereby surrendering his UK market ( tariff barriers again) which, as the product is a commodity, will be supplied by his existing UK competition or maybe a new start up company.

I'm finding it difficult to understand his logic.

Cheers,

Tony

That's prob because you're massively over simplifying the situation - I'm not having a go btw, you can only go on what I can share and he didn't give me a detailed breakdown of his business. As I said in my initial post, the main threats appear to be his suddenly and significantly increased raw material costs due to the weak £ in terms of his UK business i.e. he can still do the work but his margins are reducing and if he raises his price he won't be able to sell enough. And the uncertainty over tariff barriers selling to the EU and tariff barriers that may go up for his purchase of raw materials from outside the EU i.e. in say a year's time Deutsche Kompany GmbH will ask how much it will cost him to supply X, but he won't know what tariff may be applied to his raw materials by the UK gov or what tariff may be applied to his output products by the EU.

Fundamentally, people reading this can either:

1) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades knows what he's on about when he says our current political course may be terminal for it, or at best force it abroad and/or massively downsize it, and that many of our other companies may be about to take a shafting as well if we pursue a hard Brexit

or

2) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades is a bit of an idiot and doesn't know what he's on about and everything is fine and dandy

How many employees does the business have Mario?

?

[Mario149]

jsf said:

Mario149 said:

Tony427 said:

In Mario's example we have a manufacturer of undifferentiated commodity products faced with extensive competition that is making a nett 10% margin manufacturing in the UK.

His business is split 50/50 UK and EU.

He imports all his raw materials and is expecting a 60% tariff on those imports if the raw material cost is 50% of manufacturing cost. As it's a commodity product with little added value and lots of competition 50% raw material cost is probably on the low side. ( Cannot say if a contract is worth £2m or £3m only difference raw material cost import tarffs)

I'd like to know wha traw material product he currently imports where a 60% tariff from the EU would apply.

He is not expecting his foreign competition to face any tariff barriers to the UK market whatsoever.

He is expecting to lose his EU business because of tariffs facing him exporting into the EU.

He is not looking to source his raw materials from non EU suppliers.

He is planning to move to an EU country, where his EU competition is, thereby surrendering his UK market ( tariff barriers again) which, as the product is a commodity, will be supplied by his existing UK competition or maybe a new start up company.

I'm finding it difficult to understand his logic.

Cheers,

Tony

That's prob because you're massively over simplifying the situation - I'm not having a go btw, you can only go on what I can share and he didn't give me a detailed breakdown of his business. As I said in my initial post, the main threats appear to be his suddenly and significantly increased raw material costs due to the weak £ in terms of his UK business i.e. he can still do the work but his margins are reducing and if he raises his price he won't be able to sell enough. And the uncertainty over tariff barriers selling to the EU and tariff barriers that may go up for his purchase of raw materials from outside the EU i.e. in say a year's time Deutsche Kompany GmbH will ask how much it will cost him to supply X, but he won't know what tariff may be applied to his raw materials by the UK gov or what tariff may be applied to his output products by the EU, so he can't give them a number they can rely or one that he can guarantee to deliver on.

Fundamentally, people reading this can either:

1) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades knows what he's on about when he says our current political course may be terminal for it, or at best force it abroad and/or massively downsize it, and that many of our other companies may be about to take a shafting as well if we pursue a hard Brexit

or

2) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades is a bit of an idiot and doesn't know what he's on about and everything is fine and dandy

Edited by Mario149 on Sunday 4th December 15:02

Your neibour has survived a much larger increase in his raw material costs in the past (and profited from large changes in the past also), the UK pound and Euro have been changing constantly in the past, we are currently at a rate that was being used less than 2 years ago.

So I suggest the currency change isn't the reason why he wont survive, its no worse than previously, its not even more volatile than previously.



What he is concerned about is not the currency value, it cant be based on previous history, he Is concerned about tariffs, but shutting his UK arm if that were the case wouldn't help him in that respect to maintain his UK sales.

If tariffs do come in, whats stopping him keeping the UK base and adding an EU based subsidiary?

I refer you to my previous post. I can't provide the detail that will answer you questions or counter any points you make. You have two options: either take what he said to me seriously and assume someone who has built a rather large business that pays a lot of tax knows what he's on about, or assume he's an idiot who's letting his life's work go down the stter because he's too dumb or unmotivated to do anythign about it. Having met him personally, I see no indication that he's an idiot or that he's umotivated, far from it.

Without pointing a finger specifically at you, this does generally feel a bit remisniscent of "we've had enough of experts" again. Several economic "armchair generals" pointing out what needs to be done.

[sidicks]

Mario149 said:

I refer you to my previous post. I can't provide the detail that will answer you questions or counter any points you make. You have two options: either take what he said to me seriously and assume someone who has built a rather large business that pays a lot of tax knows what he's on about, or assume he's an idiot who's letting his life's work go down the stter because he's too dumb or unmotivated to do anythign about it. Having met him personally, I see no indication that he's an idiot or that he's umotivated, far from it.

Without pointing a finger specifically at you, this does generally feel a bit remisniscent of "we've had enough of experts" again. Several economic "armchair generals" pointing out what needs to be done.

As opposed to armchair anecdotes that are used to try and prove a point, but which don't stand up to basic scrutiny?

See the posts above from kurt535 for further examples...

[don'tbesilly]

don'tbesilly said:

don'tbesilly said:

Mario149 said:

Tony427 said:

In Mario's example we have a manufacturer of undifferentiated commodity products faced with extensive competition that is making a nett 10% margin manufacturing in the UK.

His business is split 50/50 UK and EU.

He imports all his raw materials and is expecting a 60% tariff on those imports if the raw material cost is 50% of manufacturing cost. As it's a commodity product with little added value and lots of competition 50% raw material cost is probably on the low side. ( Cannot say if a contract is worth £2m or £3m only difference raw material cost import tarffs)

I'd like to know wha traw material product he currently imports where a 60% tariff from the EU would apply.

He is not expecting his foreign competition to face any tariff barriers to the UK market whatsoever.

He is expecting to lose his EU business because of tariffs facing him exporting into the EU.

He is not looking to source his raw materials from non EU suppliers.

He is planning to move to an EU country, where his EU competition is, thereby surrendering his UK market ( tariff barriers again) which, as the product is a commodity, will be supplied by his existing UK competition or maybe a new start up company.

I'm finding it difficult to understand his logic.

Cheers,

Tony

That's prob because you're massively over simplifying the situation - I'm not having a go btw, you can only go on what I can share and he didn't give me a detailed breakdown of his business. As I said in my initial post, the main threats appear to be his suddenly and significantly increased raw material costs due to the weak £ in terms of his UK business i.e. he can still do the work but his margins are reducing and if he raises his price he won't be able to sell enough. And the uncertainty over tariff barriers selling to the EU and tariff barriers that may go up for his purchase of raw materials from outside the EU i.e. in say a year's time Deutsche Kompany GmbH will ask how much it will cost him to supply X, but he won't know what tariff may be applied to his raw materials by the UK gov or what tariff may be applied to his output products by the EU.

Fundamentally, people reading this can either:

1) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades knows what he's on about when he says our current political course may be terminal for it, or at best force it abroad and/or massively downsize it, and that many of our other companies may be about to take a shafting as well if we pursue a hard Brexit

or

2) assume a chap who's built a £50m turnover business over a few decades is a bit of an idiot and doesn't know what he's on about and everything is fine and dandy

How many employees does the business have Mario?

?

No answer to a very basic question?