The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
fido said:
But that's exactly the scenario you would build to analyse what decision you make? Who is Germany? Merkel, the industry minister, the Eurocrats, the CEO of BMW? It's not a simple decision about £24bn. Why couldn't they relocate business to Frankfurt when we were inside the EU?
I am asserting that £24bn is peanuts to the German economy, apparently it will give us leverage but I very much doubt that. sidicks said:
RYH64E said:
Or lost, it's a gamble. Having said that, the advice I've been given is to expect GBP to weaken further, but they're wrong as often as they're right.
It's not a gamble for me if I can buy USD forward at 1.1 with one firm and sell USD forward at 1.33 in the market...!RYH64E said:
sidicks said:
RYH64E said:
Or lost, it's a gamble. Having said that, the advice I've been given is to expect GBP to weaken further, but they're wrong as often as they're right.
It's not a gamble for me if I can sell USD forward at 1.1 with one firm and buy USD forward at 1.33 in the market...!
PorkRind said:
Now I'm no economist and generally have no clue about this sort of thing but how long can growth occur when we've got finite resources and finite space?!
Until we run out of resources or the Sun explodes. Incidentally that's the limit on consumption not just growth. Growth may mean we use resources faster, or it may mean we can afford to find more.PorkRind said:
why is growth seen as a good thing?
Because it makes us richer, the economy may have reached the critical point where PorkRind has as much as he or she needs, but we aren't all in that position so we'd like it to carry on a bit further.PorkRind said:
Why do we push to keep builders building and everyone to keep making stuff?Surely we need to look at other ways of keeping people occupied / in money?!
'We' don't. Individuals want somewhere to live so builders make a profit by providing this. Economic consequences of Brexit will filter in over the next few Q's and show up in gdp, inflation and growth numbers.
FTSE 100 is the dumbest indicator to follow to see if UK OK. We are a currency and bond market for the moment.
Carney (nb Brexiteers, he's a Jonny Foreigner ) did an excellent job today warning there maybe trouble ahead and what the boy's plan was. As he said, he did have a panel of 15 independent experts warn of problems leaving the EU prior to the vote but they were all branded big fat liars...weren't they...........
FTSE 100 is the dumbest indicator to follow to see if UK OK. We are a currency and bond market for the moment.
Carney (nb Brexiteers, he's a Jonny Foreigner ) did an excellent job today warning there maybe trouble ahead and what the boy's plan was. As he said, he did have a panel of 15 independent experts warn of problems leaving the EU prior to the vote but they were all branded big fat liars...weren't they...........
kurt535 said:
Economic consequences of Brexit will filter in over the next few Q's and show up in gdp, inflation and growth numbers.
FTSE 100 is the dumbest indicator to follow to see if UK OK. We are a currency and bond market for the moment.
Carney (nb Brexiteers, he's a Jonny Foreigner ) did an excellent job today warning there maybe trouble ahead and what the boy's plan was. As he said, he did have a panel of 15 independent experts warn of problems leaving the EU prior to the vote but they were all branded big fat liars...weren't they...........
Er, no, I'm not sure anyone disputed that there'd be significant market turbulence in the short term following a 'leave' vote.FTSE 100 is the dumbest indicator to follow to see if UK OK. We are a currency and bond market for the moment.
Carney (nb Brexiteers, he's a Jonny Foreigner ) did an excellent job today warning there maybe trouble ahead and what the boy's plan was. As he said, he did have a panel of 15 independent experts warn of problems leaving the EU prior to the vote but they were all branded big fat liars...weren't they...........
(Particularly given the consensus was for a clear 'remain' vote in the run up to the referendum.
According to the EU's Trade Commissioner, it's WTO trade terms for up to a decade until new trade deals are agreed and ratified....
Dr Jekyll said:
kurt535 said:
Economic consequences of Brexit will filter in over the next few Q's and show up in gdp, inflation and growth numbers.
Economic consequences of Brexit will filter in once we've left the EU. What happens between now and then is all down to uncertainty.- treasury dept at pals bank is back to paris
- siemens checking fire on any more turbine investment in uk
- dong will follow
- pal's wife, scientist at astra zeneca offered relocation package to switzerland or sweden asap along with whole dept.
This, and many more things will filter into figures easily by q1 2017. Friendly £10 with you they are crap?
It looks like when we leave we will be going for access to the single market which will doubtless come at a cost, say a subscription of £X billion a year. But wouldn't we then be free to negotiate trading deals with other nations, rather than it all having to go through the EU?
Yes, Obama said we would be at the back of the queue, but he's leaving soon and the main contender, Trump, welcomed brexit, so maybe he would be more open to cutting a deal?
Probably already been discussed
Yes, Obama said we would be at the back of the queue, but he's leaving soon and the main contender, Trump, welcomed brexit, so maybe he would be more open to cutting a deal?
Probably already been discussed
Leithen said:
According to the EU's Trade Commissioner, it's WTO trade terms for up to a decade until new trade deals are agreed and ratified....
I am sure Angela Merkel will be delighted to hear that the EU Trade Commissioner's view on the negotiation will cost German companies an extra ~€2bn, on top of the budget contributions to fill the hole left by us. Delighted. Not cross at all. Really.Dr Jekyll said:
Economic consequences of Brexit will filter in once we've left the EU. What happens between now and then is all down to uncertainty.
Do you think that companies affected by Brexit will wait for the outcome of negotiations before acting to secure their future? They've got a two year window in which to move back into the EU, that's not long so the sooner they start the better for them, not better for us but we knew what we were doing, didn't we?Willy Nilly said:
It looks like when we leave we will be going for access to the single market which will doubtless come at a cost, say a subscription of £X billion a year.
From all I've read per capita about the same we pay now.Trying to get my head around it but it seems we have to:
Pay the same
Accept free movement
Accept the laws
Sheets Tabuer said:
Willy Nilly said:
It looks like when we leave we will be going for access to the single market which will doubtless come at a cost, say a subscription of £X billion a year.
From all I've read per capita about the same we pay now.Trying to get my head around it but it seems we have to:
Pay the same
Accept free movement
Accept the laws
Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.
That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
RYH64E said:
Do you think that companies affected by Brexit will wait for the outcome of negotiations before acting to secure their future? They've got a two year window in which to move back into the EU, that's not long so the sooner they start the better for them, not better for us but we knew what we were doing, didn't we?
That would depend on whether you think the Eurozone will do better without Anglo-Saxon influence on tedious issues like free trade and deregulation, or worse. Given the Socialist, protectionist instincts of our soon-to-be-ex-partners in Europe, I'd be about as enthusiastic about moving to Frankfurt as Pyongyang.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff