The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

110 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
jjlynn27 said:
And Lich is not a precedent. You can read agreement with Lich to see that it's a pipe dream.
The emergency brake is in the treaty. It can be pulled, not a pipe dream. Even if challenged it would take years to go through the courts.
133 3

133 5

powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Ghibli said:
Would it be safe to say that being a member of the EU costs each uk resident about 0.50p per day?

When we leave, it could cost about 0.40 per day?


With the pound losing say 8%, every £50.00 I spend on fuel costs me and extra £4.00.
Yes, and when you tot it all up we'll be £4300 worse off......

£4300 you say is that you, me or someone on the dole ??? or just everyone what a daft idea to put that out
anyway if fuel goes up maybe it will free the roads up!!!!

EddieSteadyGo

12,030 posts

204 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
steveatesh said:
<snip>
At the end of the day nobody knows what will happen or what the outcomes will be for many years, and a lot depends upon our negotiations. All this argument around immigration numbers and money is merely opinion at the moment but many posters are saying it all as fact.

It's just opinion and attitude to risk, that all.
Would have to agree with you on this one.

I voted Remain because I felt it was the lower risk option and the upside of 'Out' hadn't been properly described (apart from the prospect of lower EU immigration).

Whilst it seems likely to me that a short term slow down is likely, the medium to long term is unknown, which is why I've mostly stopped posting on this topic until things become clearer.

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
The UK will not have the Norwegian arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like. What is going to happen over the next 5 months or so is the starting position for the negotiations will take shape so that both sides of the negotiation know what they would like to achieve.

You cant expect anyone, be they Prime Minister or poster on this thread to tell you what Brexit will look like, because the negotiation hasn't yet taken place.

From the initial first week of May as PM, it has been stated that the UK wishes to keep access to the single market, and the governments of Germany and France wish to continue to trade with us, as we do with them, we also wish to continue to be good neibours and cooperate as much as possible in areas of mutual benefit, such as intelligence and control of borders (hence Calais will keep its current arrangements as the border for UK entry).

The initial meetings of May and Merkel, Hollande were very positive for both sides, over the next 5 months you can expect May to visit all the heads of state in Europe to build a good relationship to start negotiations on the right footing. Once that is done you can then get on with the process in the EU establishment itself.

So if anyone is asking what Brexit means when May says Brexit is Brexit, use some intelligence, you all know the answer to that, there is zero point going round in circles arguing the toss over the meaning of something that is going to be defined by negotiations that have yet to take place.

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
///ajd said:
Ghibli said:
Would it be safe to say that being a member of the EU costs each uk resident about 0.50p per day?

When we leave, it could cost about 0.40 per day?


With the pound losing say 8%, every £50.00 I spend on fuel costs me and extra £4.00.
Yes, and when you tot it all up we'll be £4300 worse off......

£4300 you say is that you, me or someone on the dole ??? or just everyone what a daft idea to put that out
anyway if fuel goes up maybe it will free the roads up!!!!
The point is it is not difficult to see how you can get to the widely mocked £4300 figure.

And it absolutely dwarfs the cost of being in the EU.

What exactly - as MD and mecanic - are you going to do to keep our GDP bouyant as our exports and fin services potentially falter? Are you creating new businesses based on new brexit opportunities? Or are you leaving that to "others" to innovate for you?


GoodOlBoy

541 posts

104 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
Perhaps it's time the EU rethought it's overall policy.

Given that the existing trading arrangement suits both the UK and the EU maybe now is the time to separate trade from Immigration policy and migrant labour compliance.

The UK isn't the only country that wishes to have some control over migrant labour.

As far as I know EU trade agreements with Turkey, Canada and the USA don't include unlimited free movement of workers.


anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
£4300 you say is that you, me or someone on the dole ??? or just everyone what a daft idea to put that out
anyway if fuel goes up maybe it will free the roads up!!!!
I would say everyone who eats food from Europe, drives a car,/lorry, use gas and electricity or buys anything imported into the UK.

It might free the roads? I would imagine many people will still need to go to work.

It has been said it was a stupid idea.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36865793

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
The point is it is not difficult to see how you can get to the widely mocked £4300 figure.

And it absolutely dwarfs the cost of being in the EU.

What exactly - as MD and mecanic - are you going to do to keep our GDP bouyant as our exports and fin services potentially falter? Are you creating new businesses based on new brexit opportunities? Or are you leaving that to "others" to innovate for you?
Why are you trying to make these posts personal? What matters isn't what this particular poster will do, what really matters is what structures and arrangements are put in place that allows UK PLC as a whole to improve and prosper long term, both financially and socially.

Based on the significant depth of feeling of inequality in this country, there is a lot of work ahead to achieve that, we can only do that with strong leadership and a willingness to engage in the changes we will see.

You can choose to not participate in this process of change, be that by leaving the country or deciding to not take advantage of any new opportunities that may arise for you. You can choose to scorn and complain about the future you imagined was due to you being taken away. But the world will still turn and people will in general still strive to improve there situation.

The Economics of this current situation are important, but it not the only issue that needs fixing. If you haven't understood this yet then its worth thinking more about it. There is no point being well off in a nation where the people doing badly become so disenfranchised with society they decide to no longer participate. It's not a healthy situation for either side. This is the same Europe wide. I've spent the last 14 years travelling throughout Europe with my job and it's quite a worry seeing the Southern states falling apart over this timeframe. The EU is very much broken right now.

ATG

20,633 posts

273 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
Jsf ... the social problems you describe in the UK have nothing to do with EU membership and the damage to the UK economy and the political distraction caused by having to extricate ourselves from the EU put us in an even worse position to tackle them.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
Ghibli said:
powerstroke said:
£4300 you say is that you, me or someone on the dole ??? or just everyone what a daft idea to put that out
anyway if fuel goes up maybe it will free the roads up!!!!
I would say everyone who eats food from Europe, drives a car,/lorry, use gas and electricity or buys anything imported into the UK.

It might free the roads? I would imagine many people will still need to go to work.

It has been said it was a stupid idea.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36865793
Quote the BBC :roll eyes: , what was a stupid idea???

vonuber

17,868 posts

166 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
Quote the BBC :roll eyes: , what was a stupid idea???
Did you watch the clip in the link ? Roll eyes

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
jsf said:
///ajd said:
The point is it is not difficult to see how you can get to the widely mocked £4300 figure.

And it absolutely dwarfs the cost of being in the EU.

What exactly - as MD and mecanic - are you going to do to keep our GDP bouyant as our exports and fin services potentially falter? Are you creating new businesses based on new brexit opportunities? Or are you leaving that to "others" to innovate for you?
Why are you trying to make these posts personal? What matters isn't what this particular poster will do, what really matters is what structures and arrangements are put in place that allows UK PLC as a whole to improve and prosper long term, both financially and socially.

Based on the significant depth of feeling of inequality in this country, there is a lot of work ahead to achieve that, we can only do that with strong leadership and a willingness to engage in the changes we will see.

You can choose to not participate in this process of change, be that by leaving the country or deciding to not take advantage of any new opportunities that may arise for you. You can choose to scorn and complain about the future you imagined was due to you being taken away. But the world will still turn and people will in general still strive to improve there situation.

The Economics of this current situation are important, but it not the only issue that needs fixing. If you haven't understood this yet then its worth thinking more about it. There is no point being well off in a nation where the people doing badly become so disenfranchised with society they decide to no longer participate. It's not a healthy situation for either side. This is the same Europe wide. I've spent the last 14 years travelling throughout Europe with my job and it's quite a worry seeing the Southern states falling apart over this timeframe. The EU is very much broken right now.
powerstroke was clarifying that he was much more than a mechanic above - it would be interesting to see how he personally will make brexit a success. its all very well telling people that are concerned about a negative impact on their career to shut up and make the most of brexit, but in doing so lets see the examples from the brexiters here on what they specifically will do to boost our GDP (that they couldn't do in the EU of course).


powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
Jsf ... the social problems you describe in the UK have nothing to do with EU membership and the damage to the UK economy and the political distraction caused by having to extricate ourselves from the EU put us in an even worse position to tackle them.
Of course being in the EU causes the social problems , I expect like me you have compehensive medical insurance and can afford school fees and live in a nice area with nice people , but some aren't so fortunate, I wanted out for other reasons mainly soverienty and seeing a monster that consumes money and grabs power and given chance will start a war with Russia ....

Digga

40,373 posts

284 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
So Digga you didn't have all the facts but voted for the leave gamble anyway?

Sounds like Bregret.

And someone elses fault.


As more and more of these "someone elses fault we voted leave by mistake" stories come in, the case for having a rethink is stronger.
The first time I wanted to leave the EU was on September 10th 2001, following a discussion about the Euro with. Greek relative. (The date sticks in min my because of the history defining events of the following day.)

I have no regret, but I think it irresponsible to have rushed the referendum through. Given recent terror attacks and events in Turkey, it would not surprise me if a second vote gave an even larger majority,made spite what the media and polls might indicate. What did they know anyway?

To imply the Remainers were possessed of better knowledge and higher minded ideals is typical of the smug pomposity that people voted against. You think that, if it makes you feel better, but I really don't care.
jsf said:
Why are you trying to make these posts personal? What matters isn't what this particular poster will do, what really matters is what structures and arrangements are put in place....
There's no polite answer to your question, only an obvious one.

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 23rd July 2016
quotequote all
Some of the social problems are affected via our membership of the EU, some are not. It varies region to region and industry to industry. But I agree to a major extent the UK government has not been paying attention to the regions in a way that was required.

We face difficult times in working out how a modern economy can benefit more people, I think in May we have someone who is open minded about the future, for example she has already talked about worker representation on the board of directors, as is the norm in Germany.

I believe we can and will do better given the right leadership. This Brexit vote has shaken up the establishment, that can have both positive and negative consequences. I prefer to err on the side of optimism.

Murph7355

37,767 posts

257 months

Sunday 24th July 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Why do you think that people who didn't vote for the mess that has been created will be eager to assist in clearing it up?
Because irrespective of which way the vote went, it has always been, and will always be incumbent on all British citizens to make the best of themselves for the good of the country.

If you ever voted for a government that did not see power did you just down tools and have a strop?

el stovey said:
Also, unfortunately those are the people who will be directly responsible for making it work -the ones who didn't want it.

It's like forcing a CEO to act in a way which he/she thinks is bad for their business. Then complaining that they aren't more positive about it.
You've accused others of being arrogant and patronising and then type stuff like this? I guess you're still basking in the "proven" gory of being in the more intelligent, youthful, debonair part of society? smile

As above, this county will only succeed if everyone who is a part of it pulls their weight. What they voted for in the referendum is no more relevant now than who they voted for in a general election or any other democratic process they took part in.



anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 24th July 2016
quotequote all
jsf said:
The UK will not have the Norwegian arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like. What is going to happen over the next 5 months or so is the starting position for the negotiations will take shape so that both sides of the negotiation know what they would like to achieve.

You cant expect anyone, be they Prime Minister or poster on this thread to tell you what Brexit will look like, because the negotiation hasn't yet taken place.

From the initial first week of May as PM, it has been stated that the UK wishes to keep access to the single market, and the governments of Germany and France wish to continue to trade with us, as we do with them, we also wish to continue to be good neibours and cooperate as much as possible in areas of mutual benefit, such as intelligence and control of borders (hence Calais will keep its current arrangements as the border for UK entry).

The initial meetings of May and Merkel, Hollande were very positive for both sides, over the next 5 months you can expect May to visit all the heads of state in Europe to build a good relationship to start negotiations on the right footing. Once that is done you can then get on with the process in the EU establishment itself.

So if anyone is asking what Brexit means when May says Brexit is Brexit, use some intelligence, you all know the answer to that, there is zero point going round in circles arguing the toss over the meaning of something that is going to be defined by negotiations that have yet to take place.
Unfortunately a decisive number voted Brexit on the basis of 350m a week extra to NHS/Reduced migration and send our fellow EU citizens home/other lies/unrelated protest vote. Shame that May/EU leaders have to try to sort out such an idiotic outcome.

anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 24th July 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
You've accused others of being arrogant and patronising and then type stuff like this? I guess you're still basking in the "proven" gory of being in the more intelligent, youthful, debonair part of society? smile

As above, this county will only succeed if everyone who is a part of it pulls their weight. What they voted for in the referendum is no more relevant now than who they voted for in a general election or any other democratic process they took part in.
Well I voted to leave but sounds like you're on a roll so keep going with your insightful analysis of my comments.

Is it easier for you, if us leavers just post insults about remainers and vice versa?

It is a fact though that the government and people running the economy tend to be remainers. I point it out, to highlight the problem that unlike your general election analogy we have those who lost the democratic process having to decide and implement the unwanted policy of the winners. That's why it's going to be difficult and totally unlike any general election.


Edited by el stovey on Sunday 24th July 01:25

anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 24th July 2016
quotequote all
vonuber said:
That article reads like the writings of a cult.

“We are talking about enriched and changed lives, lifelong friendships – since the programme was launched, so many Erasmus babies have been born to couples who met through Erasmus.”

"Dominic Trendall, president of Sheffield’s student union, said: “Over the last couple of weeks we’ve had to let people in Europe know they’re welcome, that we’re not part of this racist culture and a better university for the fact that people come here from abroad; it’s very depressing that we’ve had to do it.

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED