The economic consequences of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

Jimboka said:

Unfortunately a decisive number voted Brexit on the basis of 350m a week extra to NHS/Reduced migration and send our fellow EU citizens home/other lies/unrelated protest vote. Shame that May/EU leaders have to try to sort out such an idiotic outcome.

Unfortunately for you, the majority wanted out of the EU before the campaign started and the remain campaign was so poor it failed to change that situation.

It's only idiotic for people who wanted a different outcome.

[///ajd]

Digga said:

///ajd said:

So Digga you didn't have all the facts but voted for the leave gamble anyway?

Sounds like Bregret.

And someone elses fault.


As more and more of these "someone elses fault we voted leave by mistake" stories come in, the case for having a rethink is stronger.

The first time I wanted to leave the EU was on September 10th 2001, following a discussion about the Euro with. Greek relative. (The date sticks in min my because of the history defining events of the following day.)

I have no regret, but I think it irresponsible to have rushed the referendum through. Given recent terror attacks and events in Turkey, it would not surprise me if a second vote gave an even larger majority,made spite what the media and polls might indicate. What did they know anyway?

To imply the Remainers were possessed of better knowledge and higher minded ideals is typical of the smug pomposity that people voted against. You think that, if it makes you feel better, but I really don't care.

jsf said:

Why are you trying to make these posts personal? What matters isn't what this particular poster will do, what really matters is what structures and arrangements are put in place....

There's no polite answer to your question, only an obvious one.

I didn't imply remainers had better knowledge.

Just that it seems clear you now think you took a leave decision without being given enough time to understand it.

That hints that perhaps the real impacts were no known.


Finally on personalising it - there are no insults there - merely a question that apples to any brexiter really. All those complaining that remainers are not happy and should be making it work - well what specifically are YOU brexiters doing to make a difference post brexit and grow GDP? I'm really after examples of things you couldn't do in the EU.

I think I know the answer, but all ears.

[steveatesh]

///ajd said:

I didn't imply remainers had better knowledge.

Just that it seems clear you now think you took a leave decision without being given enough time to understand it.

That hints that perhaps the real impacts were no known.


Finally on personalising it - there are no insults there - merely a question that apples to any brexiter really. All those complaining that remainers are not happy and should be making it work - well what specifically are YOU brexiters doing to make a difference post brexit and grow GDP? I'm really after examples of things you couldn't do in the EU.

I think I know the answer, but all ears.

I'm looking at ways of increasing sales of an e- product into EU countries that I can't sell at the moment without causing VAT issues, although I can sell it elsewhere in the world. Course I've got to wait until we actually leave so no rush.

I'm curious as a remainer, what you are personally doing to decrease the UKs risk exposure to a possible collapse in the Euro, or even just to prop up Italy's failing banking system?

[PurpleMoonlight]

Murph7355 said:

Because irrespective of which way the vote went, it has always been, and will always be incumbent on all British citizens to make the best of themselves for the good of the country.

Idealistic and utter rubbish.

[///ajd]

steveatesh said:

I'm looking at ways of increasing sales of an e- product into EU countries that I can't sell at the moment without causing VAT issues, although I can sell it elsewhere in the world. Course I've got to wait until we actually leave so no rush.

I'm curious as a remainer, what you are personally doing to decrease the UKs risk exposure to a possible collapse in the Euro, or even just to prop up Italy's failing banking system?

I don't see how a VAT issue should block the product being sold today, after all we are often by some brexiters that tariffs are a non-issue compared to e.g forex.

I'm not personally doing anything. The UK had its own relationship with the EZ and will act to protect it as it sees fit - we may help just as we did with Eire - its it our interests. I don't actually think the ES will fail as such. Spain has come along way since its dadk days of 2008 etc.

Of course, I'm not in the finance sector, so wouldn't presume to know better than them on what is best for them. Mostky they wanted to remain for pretty clear reasons.

Brexiters think they knew better - so lets hear it!!!!!!!!!

[steveatesh]

///ajd said:

I don't see how a VAT issue should block the product being sold today, after all we are often by some brexiters that tariffs are a non-issue compared to e.g forex.

I'm not personally doing anything. The UK had its own relationship with the EZ and will act to protect it as it sees fit - we may help just as we did with Eire - its it our interests. I don't actually think the ES will fail as such. Spain has come along way since its dadk days of 2008 etc.

Of course, I'm not in the finance sector, so wouldn't presume to know better than them on what is best for them. Mostky they wanted to remain for pretty clear reasons.

Brexiters think they knew better - so lets hear it!!!!!!!!!

Thanks ///ajd, your comment says you don't really know what you are talking about, and as I have said to you on a number of occasions just about everything you post on the Brexit threads is merely your opinion, usually based on somebody else's opinion, but written as fact.

Your posts are of no more value than mine or anybody else's posts, although I do get the impression of somebody who actually believes they are making a difference to the UKs position on leaving the EU.

I am curious as the whether you do anything else or are your days dominated by your personal need to share your opinions about Brexit on here?

[Mario149]

Digga said:

Mario149 said:

Digga said:

I'm kind of a big deal. <\Ron Burgundy>

You can try and laugh it up all you want. The fact remains (boom boom tsh!) that it ain't gonna be the well off/metropolitan elite/people of means/whatever who by and large voted Remain who are going to end up on the breadline if Brexit goes tits up

Digga said:

But you are actually British, right?

With the greatest of respect to Germany, France and Italy, with the way you describe your lack of attachment to the UK, you don't sound like you really had any skin in the game.

I am British yes, and I am very attached to the UK, or at least what I thought it was and stood for. I had plenty of skin in the game, in fact the most personal you can have: your identity. Like I said, the Leave vote showed me that something I had always taken for granted as part of how I defined myself was false, or at least not shared by about half the country. Maybe my vision of what the UK was is as unreal as the land of milk and honey that was sold by the Brexit campaign, which I find very sad.

A lot of those who voted leave are the ones form whom ZIRP is already failing. I do think that has a lot to do with the metro-provincial vote split.

There are a lot of people who saw themselves as 100% British - albeit perhaps second or third generation immigrant - who did not like what the EU had become and how it was shaping the UK.

Sadly unsullied facts, or the time to digest them (for many) was not a luxury we were allowed prior to Cameron's idiotically hasty referendum date. Any one who says they know, without doubt, all the facts and which way we should have voted is a bone fide bkhead.

Is that just a general set of points you were making? Or a response to what I wrote?

Could you clarify what you personally mean by "for the ones for whom ZIRP" is already failing? I.e. Why it's failing them and who they are?

[Mrr T]

steveatesh said:

I'm curious as a remainer, what you are personally doing to decrease the UKs risk exposure to a possible collapse in the Euro, or even just to prop up Italy's failing banking system?

Questions like this from team leave prove to me how little those who voted understand the EU. So:

1. You maybe aware we are not in the EZ so we have no obligations to participate in any rescue other than via the IMF.

2. Whether we are in the EU or not any collapse of a major EU economy will effect the UK.

[anonymous-user]

The reality seems to be that neither remain or leave have actually done anything yet. Most people will just carry on working paying their taxes and getting on with life.

We have David Davis working on our exit and I don't think he has done anything yet. Boris hasn't achieved anything yet.

The only thing that has happened as far as I can see is the pound dropping.

We can talk up the UK all we like as long as we don't look at the reality of what has actually happened to date.

Europe is still going to be there no matter what. They will get on with life the same as us. They can still do trade deals when we leave and possibly be in a stronger position than the UK.

IMO we need to make something to sell and the EU hasn't stopped us from doing that, we shouldn't have sold so much of what we had. The EU didn't make us sell it.

[///ajd]

steveatesh said:

///ajd said:

I don't see how a VAT issue should block the product being sold today, after all we are often by some brexiters that tariffs are a non-issue compared to e.g forex.

I'm not personally doing anything. The UK had its own relationship with the EZ and will act to protect it as it sees fit - we may help just as we did with Eire - its it our interests. I don't actually think the ES will fail as such. Spain has come along way since its dadk days of 2008 etc.

Of course, I'm not in the finance sector, so wouldn't presume to know better than them on what is best for them. Mostky they wanted to remain for pretty clear reasons.

Brexiters think they knew better - so lets hear it!!!!!!!!!

Thanks ///ajd, your comment says you don't really know what you are talking about, and as I have said to you on a number of occasions just about everything you post on the Brexit threads is merely your opinion, usually based on somebody else's opinion, but written as fact.

Your posts are of no more value than mine or anybody else's posts, although I do get the impression of somebody who actually believes they are making a difference to the UKs position on leaving the EU.

I am curious as the whether you do anything else or are your days dominated by your personal need to share your opinions about Brexit on here?

I thought you might educate me as to how leaving the EU might benefit your VAT issue?

If you did that you might educate some of the remainers who still struggle to see the up side.

Up to you, or just continue the ad homs.

Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 24th July 08:57

[Mario149]

Murph7355 said:

As above, this county will only succeed if everyone who is a part of it pulls their weight. What they voted for in the referendum is no more relevant now than who they voted for in a general election or any other democratic process they took part in.

No, it's not and you know it. How many times do we have to go round the houses on this: if Brexit goes through it will be, to all intents and purposes, permanent. This is nothing like a general election. And also ask Farage et al whether they'd have liked the opportunity to vote to leave the EU every five years or so to give them a good crack at it.

Or to put it yet another way: how many right wing Tory/UKIP supporters on here would be happy if we had one more general election knowing that was the last one, and then Labour win and you have to live the rest of your life under a left wing govt with no hope of reprieve? You'd be livid and shouting that it was undemocratic. Hell, so would I!

Additionally and following the same train if thought, I can't see the problem with having another vote on the EU in a few years time. Option (1): we see what the Brexit plan that has been negotiated is and like it, so complete Leave. Option (2): see the plan, don't like it, Stay.

[Derek Smith]

jsf said:

The UK will not have the Norwegian arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like.

A wee bit contradictory.

The Norwegian option is a shorthand. Whatever we end up with will not be identical. That is probably about as certain as anything at the moment. We don't have a surplus of energy and we will probably not demand that our seas are sacrosanct. But still the Norwegian option is a convenient description of the main facets: similar access to the EU as we have now and free movement of people.

My opinion is that we won't be allowed anything like a model that is as convenient. This will go against the political necessities of the EU. Whilst many quote trade differentials between us and the EU, they/it has bigger fish to fry. I don't think the EU will want the UK to 'get away' with anything. They will have to include some form of punishment, something they can hold over the heads of other countries wishing to leave.

As adj states, the Norwegian option was presented as the favoured one. It seems to me that it was the one put forward by the leave campaign as what we could get. It was as if the idea was we would push an envelope over the table with our demands and expect the EU to comply.

I think the negotiations will be difficult. The EU will want free movement as their baseline. I reckon they will need to emphasise that point publicly early on in the negotiations just to demonstrate their intent and in such a way that it will be obvious they will not be able to backtrack. I get the feeling that the border controls imposed by the French are merely the start of a series of demonstrations of what will happen to those countries that want to do their own thing.

As we have both said: we have no idea what brexit means to this country and won't do for some time.

[Dr Jekyll]

///ajd said:

The point is it is not difficult to see how you can get to the widely mocked £4300 figure.

And it absolutely dwarfs the cost of being in the EU.

What exactly - as MD and mecanic - are you going to do to keep our GDP bouyant as our exports and fin services potentially falter? Are you creating new businesses based on new brexit opportunities? Or are you leaving that to "others" to innovate for you?

The £4300 figure was a speculative figure from the remainers on how much they thought each household would eventually be worse off COMPARED WITH STAYING IN THE EU, NOT OOMPARED WITH PRE BREXIT. Not even they argued that we would actually be worse off than before.

Also, the cost of being in the EU is made up of things like restrictions on non EU trade, tariffs on non EU imports, red tape and the CAP. The millions of pounds in budget contributions is only a small proportion.

[Derek Smith]

Dr Jekyll said:

The £4300 figure was a speculative figure from the remainers on how much they thought each household would eventually be worse off COMPARED WITH STAYING IN THE EU, NOT OOMPARED WITH PRE BREXIT. Not even they argued that we would actually be worse off than before.

Also, the cost of being in the EU is made up of things like restrictions on non EU trade, tariffs on non EU imports, red tape and the CAP. The millions of pounds in budget contributions is only a small proportion.

The amount was calculated from a Treasury figure. Its estimate was that the economy was/is likely to shrink by over 6% as a result of an exit. The value of this drop was then divided by the number of households in the country. As an average, it can be justified in the same way as, for instance, a size of a hole can be illustrated as 'as big as 42 elephants'. It does not mean, of course, that every household will suffer the same degree of cost.

I don't like that sort of classification, even more so with elephants, but it is an accepted form for clarification.

[///ajd]

Dr Jekyll said:

///ajd said:

The point is it is not difficult to see how you can get to the widely mocked £4300 figure.

And it absolutely dwarfs the cost of being in the EU.

What exactly - as MD and mecanic - are you going to do to keep our GDP bouyant as our exports and fin services potentially falter? Are you creating new businesses based on new brexit opportunities? Or are you leaving that to "others" to innovate for you?

The £4300 figure was a speculative figure from the remainers on how much they thought each household would eventually be worse off COMPARED WITH STAYING IN THE EU, NOT OOMPARED WITH PRE BREXIT. Not even they argued that we would actually be worse off than before.

Also, the cost of being in the EU is made up of things like restrictions on non EU trade, tariffs on non EU imports, red tape and the CAP. The millions of pounds in budget contributions is only a small proportion.

But its clear we ARE heading for worse than pre brexit - which is much worse than predicted.

The tariffs you refer to might even apply to us if we leave SM, if we stay in SM they still apply.

[Dr Jekyll]

///ajd said:

But its clear we ARE heading for worse than pre brexit - which is much worse than predicted.

The tariffs you refer to might even apply to us if we leave SM, if we stay in SM they still apply.

The latest (post referendum) IMF predictions are that our economy will continue to grow, and at a faster rate than most EU countries.
If we leave the EU, how can the EU possibly compel us to charge import tariffs on non EU imports? Or EU imports come to that?

[s2art]

Derek Smith said:

The amount was calculated from a Treasury figure. Its estimate was that the economy was/is likely to shrink by over 6% as a result of an exit.

Wrong. The economy was not predicted to shrink by 6%.

[///ajd]

Dr Jekyll said:

///ajd said:

But its clear we ARE heading for worse than pre brexit - which is much worse than predicted.

The tariffs you refer to might even apply to us if we leave SM, if we stay in SM they still apply.

The latest (post referendum) IMF predictions are that our economy will continue to grow, and at a faster rate than most EU countries.
If we leave the EU, how can the EU possibly compel us to charge import tariffs on non EU imports? Or EU imports come to that?

The IMF have revised our growth downwards from pre-brexit forecasts. Immediately worse off.

If we leave the EU, they may charge us import tariffs on non-EU importa from the UK. That hurts OUR businesses, in exactly the same way you said it was hurting trade outside the EU when you brought up tariffs in the first place.

Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 24th July 10:15

[Derek Smith]

s2art said:

Derek Smith said:

The amount was calculated from a Treasury figure. Its estimate was that the economy was/is likely to shrink by over 6% as a result of an exit.

Wrong. The economy was not predicted to shrink by 6%.

Just gainsaying a post is not an argument. You know this, I assume. It is especially pointless when a quick google will show sources.

I've just done that and I find that although the figure I quoted was from memory, the precise percentage being 6.2, 'over 6%' seems reasonably accurate.

Others might disagree with the amount, but that's not the point of course. I was stating where the £4300 came from.

[Murph7355]

Derek Smith said:

Just gainsaying a post is not an argument. You know this, I assume. It is especially pointless when a quick google will show sources.

I've just done that and I find that although the figure I quoted was from memory, the precise percentage being 6.2, 'over 6%' seems reasonably accurate.

Others might disagree with the amount, but that's not the point of course. I was stating where the £4300 came from.

As I recall the %ages being bandied around were relative performance compared to if we stayed. They were not an absolute shrinkage figure.