The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

Mario149

7,758 posts

179 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the EU, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.

Edit to change "43% go to the UK" to "43% go to the EU", d'oh!

Edited by Mario149 on Thursday 30th June 21:50

kurt535

3,559 posts

118 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Mario149 said:
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the UK, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.
Well said Mario. There are too many people who do not get it.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

110 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Leithen said:
According to the EU's Trade Commissioner, it's WTO trade terms for up to a decade until new trade deals are agreed and ratified....
I was under the impression that they will start negotiating on Norway, Flexcit or whatever other option inside '2yr' AR50 invocation. This is new, to me, not encouraging information.


loafer123

15,454 posts

216 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Mario149 said:
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the UK, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.
Most major FIs already have other EU branches which are locally regulated and through which they can do business. Many funds, for example, are already based in Lux as that is the most US friendly jurisdiction.

kurt535

3,559 posts

118 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Mario149 said:
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the UK, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.
Most major FIs already have other EU branches which are locally regulated and through which they can do business. Many funds, for example, are already based in Lux as that is the most US friendly jurisdiction.
yeah my mate's fund is domiciled in lux. but he trades from london until about 24 months time....

loafer123

15,454 posts

216 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
loafer123 said:
Mario149 said:
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the UK, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.
Most major FIs already have other EU branches which are locally regulated and through which they can do business. Many funds, for example, are already based in Lux as that is the most US friendly jurisdiction.
yeah my mate's fund is domiciled in lux. but he trades from london until about 24 months time....
No idea why. It won't make any difference to him.

kurt535

3,559 posts

118 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
kurt535 said:
loafer123 said:
Mario149 said:
loafer123 said:
Or

Leave, receive 3-4% of tariffs from EU exporters into the UK, which on a net trade balance of €100bn gives us €4bn they pay us, and don't accept either laws or free movement.

That should help us to give a tax break to support FIs with major UK operations.
And what about our financial services? They're not covered by WTO and there are non-tariff barriers like regulation. FSs are 80% of our exports and as best I can tell 43% go to the UK, so that's 30%+ of our exports in total. No single market, and we're left holding our c*cks trying to find buyers for 30% of our exports with 24 months to do it.
Most major FIs already have other EU branches which are locally regulated and through which they can do business. Many funds, for example, are already based in Lux as that is the most US friendly jurisdiction.
yeah my mate's fund is domiciled in lux. but he trades from london until about 24 months time....
No idea why. It won't make any difference to him.
really? ill tell him you said so.

berty37

623 posts

140 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
berty37 said:
Carney just said 'probably have to ease policy over the summer' -..wonder where those spot rates are now....
Keep up - two rate cuts have been priced in for a few days now!
Just pointing out that spot FX rates fell on that news and second if 2 rate cuts were priced in as you put it the short sterling strip would be around 100 which it isnt. even the front sept £ futures (effectively 3 month libor) rose 8bps.

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
berty37 said:
sidicks said:
berty37 said:
Carney just said 'probably have to ease policy over the summer' -..wonder where those spot rates are now....
Keep up - two rate cuts have been priced in for a few days now!
Just pointing out that spot FX rates fell on that news and second if 2 rate cuts were priced in as you put it the short sterling strip would be around 100 which it isnt. even the front sept £ futures (effectively 3 month libor) rose 8bps.
Yes, I should have said the market had factored in a high probability of two rate cuts.


Sheets Tabuer

18,991 posts

216 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
No one bought British before we were in the EU, thats why we were always bailing everyone out.

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Sheets Tabuer said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
No one bought British before we were in the EU, thats why we were always bailing everyone out.
??

Dr Jekyll

Original Poster:

23,820 posts

262 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
EnglishTony said:
Sheets Tabuer said:
From all I've read per capita about the same we pay now.

Trying to get my head around it but it seems we have to:

Pay the same
Accept free movement
Accept the laws
+ Not be able to have any say in the process

So actually worse off

Congratulations
We wouldn't have to obey all the rules only single market ones, and we'd be outside the CAP. Judging from what existing members pay we'd pay a bit less than we do now. We would also be free to strike trade deals with the rest of the world. It's the best option.

We never had any say in the EU process anyway.


Edited by Dr Jekyll on Friday 1st July 08:35

Jockman

17,917 posts

161 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
berty37 said:
sidicks said:
berty37 said:
Carney just said 'probably have to ease policy over the summer' -..wonder where those spot rates are now....
Keep up - two rate cuts have been priced in for a few days now!
Just pointing out that spot FX rates fell on that news and second if 2 rate cuts were priced in as you put it the short sterling strip would be around 100 which it isnt. even the front sept £ futures (effectively 3 month libor) rose 8bps.
Yes, I should have said the market had factored in a high probability of two rate cuts.
rofl

Mrr T

12,264 posts

266 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Most major FIs already have other EU branches which are locally regulated and through which they can do business. Many funds, for example, are already based in Lux as that is the most US friendly jurisdiction.
Which is why moving jobs from the UK to the rUK is just a matter of getting office space, equipping it, and then telling staff move or lose your job.

Its not about the legal jurisdiction of the fund its about where the fund manager/depository (the depository will be legally based in Lux but most of the work will be done in the UK) is based.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
My next car is going to be an Aston Martin, I'm off to the dealers next Wednesday. Not as part of a personal Buy British campaign, just something to chear me up.

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
My next car is going to be an Aston Martin, I'm off to the dealers next Wednesday. Not as part of a personal Buy British campaign, just something to chear me up.
At last, a positive post on an EU referendum thread!

Which model?

Jockman

17,917 posts

161 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
My next car is going to be an Aston Martin, I'm off to the dealers next Wednesday. Not as part of a personal Buy British campaign, just something to chear me up.
I would not be looking to buy an Aston at this moment in time.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
At last, a positive post on an EU referendum thread!

Which model?
Vantage is current favourite, with a roof, not decided on V8 or V12.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
I would not be looking to buy an Aston at this moment in time.
Why not?

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
Vantage is current favourite, with a roof, not decided on V8 or V12.
The V8 is a great looking and great sounding car, but reports suggest that it has more show than go.

Push the boat out and get the V12!
beer
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED