The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
They will have a surplus if we don't buy them.
London424 said:
Ghibli needs to pop over to VAG HQ and let them in on this...they're sitting there trying to grow the business. If only someone had told them "someone else will buy them'! Genius!
If you think they will give up because you want them to that's up to you. I think they will carry on. They make their own cars and haven't sold out.London424 said:
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
gizlaroc said:
But was what we already have going to continue?
Surely Remainers were expecting what they have had so far? But going forward that looked extremely fragile, and that is why all the leavers I spoke to voted the way they did.
I would say it looks more fragile now we are leaving and in the space of a month.Surely Remainers were expecting what they have had so far? But going forward that looked extremely fragile, and that is why all the leavers I spoke to voted the way they did.
If leaving the EU is going to solve all our problems that's great. We will still have problem they just might not be the same ones.
jsf said:
Derek Smith said:
jsf said:
Derek Smith said:
jsf said:
The UK will not have the Norwegian arrangement with the EU post Brexit.
The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.
At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like.
A wee bit contradictory. The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.
At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like.
I haven't checked their details, but I would assume that Lichenstein has not gone for Norway's demands for sole access to their seas. But it is still classified as the Norwegian option. I doubt it has the same degree of surplus energy to bargain with. But it is still classified as the Norwegian option. So their agreement is specific to Lichtenstein but still falls under the description of the Norwegian option.
Norway pays around Euro 100m per capita to the EU for membership. However, there are other charges as well and it is difficult to be specific as to the actual total. Our contributions will be up for negotiation for the UK. If we don't pay the same then our terms could still be classified as the Norwegian option.
So there is clearly a Norwegian option that the UK can use as a model for our relationship with the EU. It will certainly differ to that of Norway, for a number of reasons, but it can still be classified as the Norwegian option. There is the Swiss option, which is in some ways similar to the Norwegian option but different enough to have a classification all of its own. Our agreement is unlikely to follow that route according to many commentators but if it did it would not be identical but would still be classifiable as the Swiss option.
Using the various titles is both convenient and accurate. Further, from an EU perspective, it is useful to have an agreement with the UK which is basically the same as those already in existence. To allow us favourable terms would upset those already under agreement with the EU and to have poorer terms would upset the UK negotiators and would be politically difficult to justify.
So the use of the term Norwegian option is valid. Quite clearly so. You suggest the UK will have an agreement specific to the UK. The Norwegian option is specific to Lichtenstein in that it differs form that of Norway, but it is still the Norwegian option for the reason explained in my first paragraph.
If we opt for EEA, EFTA, free movement and full access to the EU, then that is the Norwegian option regardless of detail specific to us.
That is not, of course, to suggest that that will be the route we will negotiate, but it is a distinct possibility and the one favoured pre exit by business groups, including the CBI. However, some other groups are against it. Google "If you want to run the EU, stay in the EU. If you want to be run by the EU, feel free to join us in the EEA", a comment by someone from the Norwegian conservative type party.
So full access to the EU with free movement (EEA, EFTA) = Norwegian option.
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
We are arguing semantics.
They revised our growth downwards as it will not be as high as forecast pre-brexit. Hence while we will still have growth, it will be slower than it would have been. Less growth = worse off. You can't spin this any other way than being worse off than if we'd stayed, and in this year.
Based on their assumptions - are these reasonable? How accurate have their predictions been in the past?They revised our growth downwards as it will not be as high as forecast pre-brexit. Hence while we will still have growth, it will be slower than it would have been. Less growth = worse off. You can't spin this any other way than being worse off than if we'd stayed, and in this year.
What have they assumed for our future relationship with the EU? How does this change if the assumptions change?
///adj said:
WTO tariffs on our exports into the EU if we left the SM would have a huge impact on our business. You shouldn't trivialise it.
Why would they want to impose tariffs?///ajd said:
London424 said:
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
///ajd said:
Sidicks - in asking how accurate have their predictions in the past, it seemed you were casting doubt on IMF predictions.
No, I was asking how accurate they have been in the past - that casts doubt on what they've done in the past.As stated, I've not reviewed the assumptions for the latest projections, so can't comment on those. However, it's quite clear no-one else on here has done so either.
As if future financial projections were not already filled with massive uncertainty etc, given the massive amount of uncertainty about when we actually leave the EU and on what terms, any projections are massively sensitive to those assumptions.
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
Sidicks - in asking how accurate have their predictions in the past, it seemed you were casting doubt on IMF predictions.
No, I was asking how accurate they have been in the past - that casts doubt on what they've done in the past.As stated, I've not reviewed the assumptions for the latest projections, so can't comment on those. However, it's quite clear no-one else on here has done so either.
As if future financial projections were not already filled with massive uncertainty etc, given the massive amount of uncertainty about when we actually leave the EU and on what terms, any projections are massively sensitive to those assumptions.
London424 said:
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
jsf said:
London424 said:
sidicks said:
Ghibli said:
IMO, the Germans will still sell cars. If we don't buy them they will just find someone else to buy them.
The advantage they have is cars to sell.
Why doesn't the 'someone else' buy them at the moment?The advantage they have is cars to sell.
If the EU goes down we can just as easily go with it whether we are in or out of it.
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