The economic consequences of Brexit

[Digga]

powerstroke said:

Yes without german cars our economy would grind to a halt , photocopyiers, unsold , middle managers on strike, kids not taken to school, joneses not kept up with, yes we would be screwed

Who will keep the outside lanes of our motorways clear without their led headlights flashing?

We're all doomed!

[Jockman]

jsf said:

jjlynn27 said:

Yes, you can almost see it, people will replace their Merc Bmw Audi and the rest with hmm Allard mk3.

Onwards and upwards, we are going to finance all that with export of FS to Brazil and Argentina.

A nice Aston Martin wouldn't go amiss on my drive.

I've owned lots of different makes of car, current one is Japanese, Japanese spec too, goes like stink.

Not sure that the answer to not buying German cars is to buy British ones. If tariffs are imposed on German imports people are free to make a choice of many other cars.

[jjlynn27]

Do people actually think we'll stop buying German cars? Almost as funny as cretinous 'let's replace city with fishing industry' one.

[Jockman]

jjlynn27 said:

Do people actually think we'll stop buying German cars?

Nope.

Price conscious people may be more susceptible if there is an uplift.

Others will continue unabated.

[jjlynn27]

Jockman said:

Nope.

Price conscious people may be more susceptible if there is an uplift.

Others will continue unabated.

You'd think that that's so obvious.

[williamp]

Ghibli said:

jsf said:

Britsh built cars

Are they all British owned ?

The problem with that question is that, unless they are wholly state owned, car companies are plc and therefore anyone can own them. So just as johnny foreigner can buy shares in a uk company and, if more then 50% have a controlling interest, johnny engliah can buy shares in bmw, vw, Mercedes, Fiat, PSA, toyota etc.
Luckily the EU decided against the VW protetionist policy, so if you had the cash you could buy more the 50% of VW and decide to morve their global HQ to, say Corby. Or Melton Mowbray.

Someone aksed earlier about uk business buying overseas firms. Here is a comparison graph of total aquisitions, of and by uk companies




From the ONS. I wondef if its what you were expecting??

[Digga]

German cars might get more expensive, but there will be componentry in British-made vehicles that may also increase in the same scenario.

[anonymous-user]

williamp said:

The problem with that question is that, unless they are wholly state owned, car companies are plc and therefore anyone can own them. So just as johnny foreigner can buy shares in a uk company and, if more then 50% have a controlling interest, johnny engliah can buy shares in bmw, vw, Mercedes, Fiat, PSA, toyota etc.
Luckily the EU decided against the VW protetionist policy, so if you had the cash you could buy more the 50% of VW and decide to morve their global HQ to, say Corby. Or Melton Mowbray.

Someone aksed earlier about uk business buying overseas firms. Here is a comparison graph of total aquisitions, of and by uk companies




From the ONS. I wondef if its what you were expecting??

Exactly, as the pound lowers in value. Foreign investors invest and we take back control and work for them.

[rpguk]

Lenovo increases prices by 10% from 1st August

[anonymous-user]

Jockman said:

jsf said:

jjlynn27 said:

Yes, you can almost see it, people will replace their Merc Bmw Audi and the rest with hmm Allard mk3.

Onwards and upwards, we are going to finance all that with export of FS to Brazil and Argentina.

A nice Aston Martin wouldn't go amiss on my drive.

I've owned lots of different makes of car, current one is Japanese, Japanese spec too, goes like stink.

Not sure that the answer to not buying German cars is to buy British ones. If tariffs are imposed on German imports people are free to make a choice of many other cars.

I know, I drive a Japanese car that had an import tariff applied to it.

[rpguk]

jsf said:

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

The UK will not have the Norwegian arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

The UK will have the UK arrangement with the EU post Brexit.

At this stage of the game no one can say what that will look like.

A wee bit contradictory.

Not in the slightest contradictory Derek.

But you say, which I agree with, no one can say. It is possible that we might be forced into a Norwegian type of arrangement.

I don't know how much clearer I can make it Derek. The UK will have an agreement specific to the UK.

The Norway option is a route to the EU. It does not mean that we will have the same details as Norway, but it is a reasonable classification. If we have full access to the single market without staying in the EU the simplest method would be to join Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein in being a member of the EFTA and signing the EEA Agreement. This is the route that is covered by the title Nowegian option. Many groups use this as the overarching description of that route. The CBI for one uses it and I see no reason not to follow their lead. However, using the term does not mean that the UK will not have its own preferences. We will probably not demand to have sole access to our seas. I would assume the EU has a number of lobbyists pushing for this.

I haven't checked their details, but I would assume that Lichenstein has not gone for Norway's demands for sole access to their seas. But it is still classified as the Norwegian option. I doubt it has the same degree of surplus energy to bargain with. But it is still classified as the Norwegian option. So their agreement is specific to Lichtenstein but still falls under the description of the Norwegian option.

Norway pays around Euro 100m per capita to the EU for membership. However, there are other charges as well and it is difficult to be specific as to the actual total. Our contributions will be up for negotiation for the UK. If we don't pay the same then our terms could still be classified as the Norwegian option.

So there is clearly a Norwegian option that the UK can use as a model for our relationship with the EU. It will certainly differ to that of Norway, for a number of reasons, but it can still be classified as the Norwegian option. There is the Swiss option, which is in some ways similar to the Norwegian option but different enough to have a classification all of its own. Our agreement is unlikely to follow that route according to many commentators but if it did it would not be identical but would still be classifiable as the Swiss option.

Using the various titles is both convenient and accurate. Further, from an EU perspective, it is useful to have an agreement with the UK which is basically the same as those already in existence. To allow us favourable terms would upset those already under agreement with the EU and to have poorer terms would upset the UK negotiators and would be politically difficult to justify.

So the use of the term Norwegian option is valid. Quite clearly so. You suggest the UK will have an agreement specific to the UK. The Norwegian option is specific to Lichtenstein in that it differs form that of Norway, but it is still the Norwegian option for the reason explained in my first paragraph.

If we opt for EEA, EFTA, free movement and full access to the EU, then that is the Norwegian option regardless of detail specific to us.

That is not, of course, to suggest that that will be the route we will negotiate, but it is a distinct possibility and the one favoured pre exit by business groups, including the CBI. However, some other groups are against it. Google "If you want to run the EU, stay in the EU. If you want to be run by the EU, feel free to join us in the EEA", a comment by someone from the Norwegian conservative type party.

So full access to the EU with free movement (EEA, EFTA) = Norwegian option.

I don't know how much clearer I can make it Derek. The UK will have an agreement specific to the UK. That is not the Norway option.

Yeah exactly, it'll be like the Norway plan except we won't have to pay any contributions to the EU, won't have to let any Europeans in, our new BLUE passports will allow us freedom of movement anywhere we want (Her Majesty requests it FFS), we can fish where we like but not allow any of the others to fish in our waters and our financial institutions will of course be allowed free reign - they're the best the the world!

In return the UK will continue to buy BMWs.

[Jockman]

jsf said:

Jockman said:

jsf said:

jjlynn27 said:

Yes, you can almost see it, people will replace their Merc Bmw Audi and the rest with hmm Allard mk3.

Onwards and upwards, we are going to finance all that with export of FS to Brazil and Argentina.

A nice Aston Martin wouldn't go amiss on my drive.

I've owned lots of different makes of car, current one is Japanese, Japanese spec too, goes like stink.

Not sure that the answer to not buying German cars is to buy British ones. If tariffs are imposed on German imports people are free to make a choice of many other cars.

I know, I drive a Japanese car that had an import tariff applied to it.

I sold 2 Aston Martins and replaced them with a Vauxhall Corsa. Go figure

[don'tbesilly]

Jockman said:

I sold 2 Aston Martins and replaced them with a Vauxhall Corsa. Go figure

[Jockman]

don'tbesilly said:

Jockman said:

I sold 2 Aston Martins and replaced them with a Vauxhall Corsa. Go figure

[///ajd]

jsf said:

Jockman said:

jsf said:

jjlynn27 said:

Yes, you can almost see it, people will replace their Merc Bmw Audi and the rest with hmm Allard mk3.

Onwards and upwards, we are going to finance all that with export of FS to Brazil and Argentina.

A nice Aston Martin wouldn't go amiss on my drive.

I've owned lots of different makes of car, current one is Japanese, Japanese spec too, goes like stink.

Not sure that the answer to not buying German cars is to buy British ones. If tariffs are imposed on German imports people are free to make a choice of many other cars.

I know, I drive a Japanese car that had an import tariff applied to it.

Would that be a second hand one which due to jap tax laws has reached a residual value that makes it very attractive to import to UK - plus its RHD? Or e.g. new GTR etc. that has the tariff applied anyway even if you buy from Nissan UK - only EU made Nissans are tariff free.

In the second hand case, the tariffs are neutralised by the good value it represents, and a GTR is cheap compared to its peers anyway and a bit of a niche choice that doesn't apply to a Qashqai.

The issue of tariffs is more of a problem for the location of factories. It could well influence Nissan and JLR future decision.

There is also the issue that many German cars are price sensitive - otherwise the roads would not be littered with 318/320ds. Price does matter alot.

If there are tariffs there is scope for JLR to sweep up in the UK with its XF20d - right up to the point where they decide they've lost too many EU sales and will make more money if the factory relocates to within the EU.

All assuming tariffs apply of course. Tariff free true barrier free SM access, there should be no issue.....at least for manufacturers.

[jjlynn27]

rpguk said:

Lenovo increases prices by 10% from 1st August

We had meeting with distributor last week, pretty much everything is 10% to 15% up. RSA 18%.

[Derek Smith]

rpguk said:

Lenovo increases prices by 10% from 1st August

So now's the time to buy I suppose. I was going to upgrade my desktop in the near future. Ironically, I've just had a royalty cheque in USD.

[anonymous-user]

Brazilian kidnappers want ransom in Stirling these days.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/bernie-...

Definitely good news for brexiters.

[Jockman]

el stovey said:

Brazilian kidnappers want ransom in Stirling these days.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/bernie-...

Definitely good news for brexiters.

Why Stirling (sic)?

[RYH64E]

el stovey said:

Brazilian kidnappers want ransom in Sterling these days.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/bernie-...

Definitely good news for brexiters.

I'd want it in USD.