The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
jsf said:
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
the £ has dropped 3% against the euro compared to its low in June pre the Brexit vote, its currently at the same rate we had January 2014.
Someone at your suppliers is taking the piss.
You don't seem to understand that those suppliers and manufacturers while being in EU still pay for a lot of stuff in USD. Someone at your suppliers is taking the piss.
Expectation of where the £ will go from here is a lot more relevant than where it is now.
If you actually believe that people are taking the piss, it seems that an awful lot of companies are currently taking the piss.
The email said the £ has dropped 10% against the Euro post Brexit.
It hasn't.
The point is, pound is expected to go lower against the Euro. People do forward planing. Hence price increase across the sector.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...
jsf said:
UK growth in the last quarter higher than analysts expected.
Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
Which would include Apr-May-June. Very good. Very positive. Then if you read actual text;Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
independent said:
However, economists warned that the improvement was unlikely to be sustained.
A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
But we don't want those experts, just the ones whose opinion align with ours. Right?A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
the £ has dropped 3% against the euro compared to its low in June pre the Brexit vote, its currently at the same rate we had January 2014.
Someone at your suppliers is taking the piss.
You don't seem to understand that those suppliers and manufacturers while being in EU still pay for a lot of stuff in USD. Someone at your suppliers is taking the piss.
Expectation of where the £ will go from here is a lot more relevant than where it is now.
If you actually believe that people are taking the piss, it seems that an awful lot of companies are currently taking the piss.
The email said the £ has dropped 10% against the Euro post Brexit.
It hasn't.
The point is, pound is expected to go lower against the Euro. People do forward planing. Hence price increase across the sector.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...
I am responding to what was written in an email.
It's you who are trying to change the content of that email to suit your agenda.
The £ is expected to go lower against the Euro? You sure about that?
The $ is very strong at the moment against the majority of world currencies, the £ and Euro have been dropping against the $ since 2008, that's most likely to be the way it is for the next 2 years.
The likelihood is the £ against the Euro will do what its been doing for the last few years, wander up and down a bit based on events in the Euro Zone.
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
UK growth in the last quarter higher than analysts expected.
Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
Which would include Apr-May-June. Very good. Very positive. Then if you read actual text;Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
independent said:
However, economists warned that the improvement was unlikely to be sustained.
A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
But we don't want those experts, just the ones whose opinion align with ours. Right?A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
So far the economists are constantly getting it wrong, be that anticipated growth rates, investment in the UK or what the BOE will do with the base rate. No doubt they will get it right one day.
Of course the next quarter will show a different pattern, a shock to the system always has an effect, but I'm not betting on the experts getting the numbers right, they have a poor record so far.
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
UK growth in the last quarter higher than analysts expected.
Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
Which would include Apr-May-June. Very good. Very positive. Then if you read actual text;Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
independent said:
However, economists warned that the improvement was unlikely to be sustained.
A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
But we don't want those experts, just the ones whose opinion align with ours. Right?A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
jsf said:
Errm, no.
I am responding to what was written in an email.
It's you who are trying to change the content of that email to suit your agenda.
The £ is expected to go lower against the Euro? You sure about that?
The $ is very strong at the moment against the majority of world currencies, the £ and Euro have been dropping against the $ since 2008, that's most likely to be the way it is for the next 2 years.
The likelihood is the £ against the Euro will do what its been doing for the last few years, wander up and down a bit based on events in the Euro Zone.
My agenda? I am responding to what was written in an email.
It's you who are trying to change the content of that email to suit your agenda.
The £ is expected to go lower against the Euro? You sure about that?
The $ is very strong at the moment against the majority of world currencies, the £ and Euro have been dropping against the $ since 2008, that's most likely to be the way it is for the next 2 years.
The likelihood is the £ against the Euro will do what its been doing for the last few years, wander up and down a bit based on events in the Euro Zone.
I don't know what £ is going to do against Euro. I do suspect it's going to drop.
The link is from site claiming that that's what JPM predicts. I'm sure that they know more about currency markets than both of us do. If I knew what currency is going to do, I'd bet accordingly.
If the expectation is that pound will drop against Euro (and $), that's all that practically matters. Suppliers will increase their prices to compensate for the drop. As they have been doing.
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
Errm, no.
I am responding to what was written in an email.
It's you who are trying to change the content of that email to suit your agenda.
The £ is expected to go lower against the Euro? You sure about that?
The $ is very strong at the moment against the majority of world currencies, the £ and Euro have been dropping against the $ since 2008, that's most likely to be the way it is for the next 2 years.
The likelihood is the £ against the Euro will do what its been doing for the last few years, wander up and down a bit based on events in the Euro Zone.
My agenda? I am responding to what was written in an email.
It's you who are trying to change the content of that email to suit your agenda.
The £ is expected to go lower against the Euro? You sure about that?
The $ is very strong at the moment against the majority of world currencies, the £ and Euro have been dropping against the $ since 2008, that's most likely to be the way it is for the next 2 years.
The likelihood is the £ against the Euro will do what its been doing for the last few years, wander up and down a bit based on events in the Euro Zone.
I don't know what £ is going to do against Euro. I do suspect it's going to drop.
The link is from site claiming that that's what JPM predicts. I'm sure that they know more about currency markets than both of us do. If I knew what currency is going to do, I'd bet accordingly.
If the expectation is that pound will drop against Euro (and $), that's all that practically matters. Suppliers will increase their prices to compensate for the drop. As they have been doing.
jsf said:
Not at all, I take on board all comments and opinions then try and take from that useful information.
So far the economists are constantly getting it wrong, be that anticipated growth rates, investment in the UK or what the BOE will do with the base rate. No doubt they will get it right one day.
Of course the next quarter will show a different pattern, a shock to the system always has an effect, but I'm not betting on the experts getting the numbers right, they have a poor record so far.
If they are 'constantly' or even 'almost constantly' getting things wrong, you should bet against them. Surefire way to riches. Or get a job at JPM and show them how it's done. You get to bet with other people's money and make an absolute fortune for yourself. So far the economists are constantly getting it wrong, be that anticipated growth rates, investment in the UK or what the BOE will do with the base rate. No doubt they will get it right one day.
Of course the next quarter will show a different pattern, a shock to the system always has an effect, but I'm not betting on the experts getting the numbers right, they have a poor record so far.
jjlynn27 said:
If they are 'constantly' or even 'almost constantly' getting things wrong, you should bet against them. Surefire way to riches. Or get a job at JPM and show them how it's done. You get to bet with other people's money and make an absolute fortune for yourself.
I think you misunderstand how the majority of JPM's business works!sidicks said:
jjlynn27 said:
If they are 'constantly' or even 'almost constantly' getting things wrong, you should bet against them. Surefire way to riches. Or get a job at JPM and show them how it's done. You get to bet with other people's money and make an absolute fortune for yourself.
I think you misunderstand how the majority of JPM's business works!Whats your basis for expecting the £ to drop against the Euro?
The Dollar I can understand, but there are lots of indicators that the Eurozone is a mess and little to suggest that Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU, whether you think it'll be good or bad.
Look at the growth in Euro-zone countries for the same period as those just released, it's basically 2% in the UK and 1% in the EU. Pre-vote yes, but the uncertainty that we were told was affecting the economy in those months would have had more effect on the UK you would think.
There's all sorts of politics going on in the Eurozone that are going to have an economic impact on the currency, non of them positive, and I can't see any long-term indicators that the Euro is going to out perform the pound.
The Dollar I can understand, but there are lots of indicators that the Eurozone is a mess and little to suggest that Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU, whether you think it'll be good or bad.
Look at the growth in Euro-zone countries for the same period as those just released, it's basically 2% in the UK and 1% in the EU. Pre-vote yes, but the uncertainty that we were told was affecting the economy in those months would have had more effect on the UK you would think.
There's all sorts of politics going on in the Eurozone that are going to have an economic impact on the currency, non of them positive, and I can't see any long-term indicators that the Euro is going to out perform the pound.
sidicks said:
Burwood said:
They illegally manipulate markets/products, make billions. Get caught and pay 5X this number back in fines.
Idiot!I find that perception funny.
London424 said:
jjlynn27 said:
jsf said:
UK growth in the last quarter higher than analysts expected.
Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
Which would include Apr-May-June. Very good. Very positive. Then if you read actual text;Strongest quarter of growth in industrial production since 1999.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gd...
independent said:
However, economists warned that the improvement was unlikely to be sustained.
A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
But we don't want those experts, just the ones whose opinion align with ours. Right?A batch of major business surveys by Markit/CIPS last week suggested that activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy fell at its fastest pace since 2009 in the wake of the shock vote by the British public to leave the EU on 23 June.
jjlynn27 said:
If they are 'constantly' or even 'almost constantly' getting things wrong, you should bet against them. Surefire way to riches....
Arguably 17m people did bet against them, and less bet with them 
jjlynn27 said:
Do you now understand need for cockatoo? For some reason 'general' perception is that everyone working in FS is incompetent gambler, who makes tons of money for absolutely no reason at all.
I find that perception funny.
I find those and similar perceptions tragic. Indicative that sense will never be seen in this country.I find that perception funny.
paulrockliffe said:
Whats your basis for expecting the £ to drop against the Euro?
The Dollar I can understand, but there are lots of indicators that the Eurozone is a mess and little to suggest that Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU, whether you think it'll be good or bad.
Look at the growth in Euro-zone countries for the same period as those just released, it's basically 2% in the UK and 1% in the EU. Pre-vote yes, but the uncertainty that we were told was affecting the economy in those months would have had more effect on the UK you would think.
There's all sorts of politics going on in the Eurozone that are going to have an economic impact on the currency, non of them positive, and I can't see any long-term indicators that the Euro is going to out perform the pound.
Not sure if question was directed to me, in case that it was;The Dollar I can understand, but there are lots of indicators that the Eurozone is a mess and little to suggest that Brexit will be worse for the UK than for the EU, whether you think it'll be good or bad.
Look at the growth in Euro-zone countries for the same period as those just released, it's basically 2% in the UK and 1% in the EU. Pre-vote yes, but the uncertainty that we were told was affecting the economy in those months would have had more effect on the UK you would think.
There's all sorts of politics going on in the Eurozone that are going to have an economic impact on the currency, non of them positive, and I can't see any long-term indicators that the Euro is going to out perform the pound.
It's an (hopefully) an educated guess. I don't know enough about it, to bet on FOREX.
Not sure where you got figures of 2% for UK and 1% for EU (EZ?). From what I'm reading, markets didn't price brexit in, as they didn't think that it would happen.
I've linked the sources/tables of why I think the UK is going to be more affected by Brexit than EU/EZ. At this time, it's all that it is, a guess. We'll have to wait and see what actually happens.
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