The economic consequences of Brexit

[sidicks]

paulrockliffe said:

Whats your basis for expecting the £ to drop against the Euro?

It suits his narrative, even if markets don't appear to be on the same wavelength...

[sidicks]

Burwood said:

i'm qualified to make such a flippant statement. JPM have the fines to attract such a comment.

Is that what the company dis or a minuscule proportion of employees?

[Burwood]

sidicks said:

Burwood said:

i'm qualified to make such a flippant statement. JPM have the fines to attract such a comment.

Is that what the company dis or a minuscule proportion of employees?

well, I'll give you that it isn't the entire company but when the result wipes out 2 years earnings, it becomes a big problem for the company. It was a tongue in cheek comment anyway. I know what you do for a living- i did too

[sidicks]

Burwood said:

well, I'll give you that it isn't the entire company but when the result wipes out 2 years earnings, it becomes a big problem for the company. It was a tongue in cheek comment anyway. I know what you do for a living- i did too

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

It suits his narrative, even if markets don't appear to be on the same wavelength...

Weird conclusion. It's nothing to do with narrative. Its a guess. Nothing more nothing less.

As for the markets;

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...

JMP, PB and GS seem to share that view.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

Weird conclusion. It's nothing to do with narrative. Its a guess. Nothing more nothing less.

And yet you portrayed it as a widely held opinion or fact!

jjlynn27 said:

As for the markets;

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...

JMP, PB and GS seem to share that view.

You think that a newspaper headline equates to 'the markets'?

Aren't there both buyers and sellers in a market?

Edited by sidicks on Wednesday 27th July 12:18

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

jjlynn27 said:

Weird conclusion. It's nothing to do with narrative. Its a guess. Nothing more nothing less.

And yet you portrayed it as a widely held opinion or fact!

jjlynn27 said:

As for the markets;

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...

JMP, PB and GS seem to share that view.

You think that a newspaper headline equates to 'the markets'?

Aren't there both buyers and sellers in a market?

Edited by sidicks on Wednesday 27th July 12:18

I'm not portraying anything 'as a widely held opinion' let alone as a fact. You are making that up. Not sure why.

JPM
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/5...

Same page for PB and GS.

Once again, it's my guess. Nothing more or less. No idea if they are 'widely held'. No idea if they are correct, if I was sure that they are, if those views are fact, I would be betting. I clearly stated that I'm not.

Are you arguing just for the sake of arguing?

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

I'm not portraying anything 'as a widely held opinion' let alone as a fact. You are making that up. Not sure why.

Once again, it's my guess. Nothing more or less. No idea if they are 'widely held'. No idea if they are correct, if I was sure that they are, if those views are fact, I would be betting. I clearly stated that I'm not.

Are you arguing just for the sake of arguing?

Let's not forget what you actually said:

jjlynn27 said:

The point is, pound is expected to go lower against the Euro.

That sounds awfully like a firm statement rather than your opinion or a guess...

[B'stard Child]

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

[Jockman]

B'stard Child said:

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

The article essentially says nothing....well, nothing new in any case.

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

That sounds awfully like a firm statement rather than your opinion or a guess...

If only you bothered to include the rest of that quote with the link, you'd see what I meant. Since then I explained in at least 2 or 3 posts that it's my guess based on what I'm reading there. Empirical evidence of manufacturers/distributors of hardware, and that was what post was about, supports that view. Or they are gouging UK consumers and using brexit as an excuse.

For the last time, regardless of how you read it; It was an opinion/guess based on a link not included, for whatever reason, in your quote of my post. If it was firm statement I'd be betting based on the 'fact'. I'm not. Not sure that I could make it any clearer.

[ATG]

jsf said:

but I'm not betting on the experts getting the numbers right, they have a poor record so far.

Dismissing expertise is oxymoronic, plus or minus the oxy bit.

For what it's worth the consensus forecast for Q2 GDP growth was 0.5% and the ONS provisional figure released today was 0.6%. I'd suggest that was an example of "experts" getting the "numbers" right.

[B'stard Child]

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

The article essentially says nothing....well, nothing new in any case.

Yeah but it wasn't as negative as I'd expected - almost a change in view..... almost!

[ATG]

Burwood said:

If JPM 'predict' that then it is their actual view that the currency will do the exact opposite.

Horest.

Investment banks' credibility with their customers is largely based on the quality of the research they publish.

If JPM says they think Sterling will fall it's because they think Sterling will fall.

[Jockman]

B'stard Child said:

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

The article essentially says nothing....well, nothing new in any case.

Yeah but it wasn't as negative as I'd expected - almost a change in view..... almost!

I see what you're saying. You're gobsmacked the BBC is reporting positive news

Digby Jones is a prominent Brexiteer so they are declaring his views, then countering with some from Remain.

If I'm honest, I get a better analysis on here from the clever ones (when they're not having a squabble )

[B'stard Child]

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

The article essentially says nothing....well, nothing new in any case.

Yeah but it wasn't as negative as I'd expected - almost a change in view..... almost!

I see what you're saying. You're gobsmacked the BBC is reporting positive news

Spot on

Jockman said:

Digby Jones is a prominent Brexiteer so they are declaring his views, then countering with some from Remain.

that's more balance than I've seen before

Jockman said:

If I'm honest, I get a better analysis on here from the clever ones (when they're not having a squabble )

I do too - even when I don't agree with them - there is a level of balance (OK it's tilted right but as long as you accept that it's still balance)

I've always steered clear of NPE because it's a car forum and that's really why I'm here and also some threads that I've dipped into over the years have really been a cesspit from hell so I've scutttled out pronto - I don't think that has changed but it's not the case for all threads - there are some very good ones.

[Jockman]

B'stard Child said:

I do too - even when I don't agree with them - there is a level of balance (OK it's tilted right but as long as you accept that it's still balance)

I've always steered clear of NPE because it's a car forum and that's really why I'm here and also some threads that I've dipped into over the years have really been a cesspit from hell so I've scutttled out pronto - I don't think that has changed but it's not the case for all threads - there are some very good ones.

Persevere. Get used to different posting styles. If it's someone you disagree with, read their posts like they are Orvil. Ask questions rather than make statements unless you are sure of your facts. Hit 'Back Page' more than you hit 'submit'. Choose your battles. Use smilies if you want to be emphatic.

But you knew all that anyway....

[B'stard Child]

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

I do too - even when I don't agree with them - there is a level of balance (OK it's tilted right but as long as you accept that it's still balance)

I've always steered clear of NPE because it's a car forum and that's really why I'm here and also some threads that I've dipped into over the years have really been a cesspit from hell so I've scutttled out pronto - I don't think that has changed but it's not the case for all threads - there are some very good ones.

Persevere. Get used to different posting styles. If it's someone you disagree with, read their posts like they are Orvil. Ask questions rather than make statements unless you are sure of your facts. Hit 'Back Page' more than you hit 'submit'. Choose your battles. Use smilies if you want to be emphatic.

But you knew all that anyway....

Thanks for that - I actually found it useful

Reaches for dictionary "emphatic" hmmm

[Benbay001]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36902116

"FTSE 100 bolstered by ITV and UK growth data"

"Shares in housebuilder Taylor Wimpey rose 5.4% to 152.70p after it said it had not been affected by last month's Brexit vote."

[Digga]

ATG said:

Burwood said:

If JPM 'predict' that then it is their actual view that the currency will do the exact opposite.

Horest.

Investment banks' credibility with their customers is largely based on the quality of the research they publish.

If JPM says they think Sterling will fall it's because they think Sterling will fall.

There are a lot of former clients of banks, not least GS, who'd disagree. They seem very adept at trading ahead of their own advice.