The economic consequences of Brexit

[WinstonWolf]

///ajd said:

WinstonWolf said:

Funny how ///ajd disappears as soon as there's good news...

Far from it 535i kindly cross posted a link to the pharma good news in a thread I just posted in to make sure I wouldn't miss it. I agreed it was welcome thing despite slurs here to the contrary.

Good to see the 0.6% growth in the qtr to end June. Thats just 3 months growth!

Looking forward to seeing that continue and accelerate into the next qts. Our growth should be well over 2% at year end!

That'll be a relief to all and something to celebrate.

It's not a slur, it's just pointing out that your predictions of impending doom have been proven to be wrong. Onward and upward...

[TonyToniTone]

All the good news comes from growth in April according to sky, so I guess it means nothing one way or the other.

[///ajd]

WinstonWolf said:

///ajd said:

WinstonWolf said:

Funny how ///ajd disappears as soon as there's good news...

Far from it 535i kindly cross posted a link to the pharma good news in a thread I just posted in to make sure I wouldn't miss it. I agreed it was welcome thing despite slurs here to the contrary.

Good to see the 0.6% growth in the qtr to end June. Thats just 3 months growth!

Looking forward to seeing that continue and accelerate into the next qts. Our growth should be well over 2% at year end!

That'll be a relief to all and something to celebrate.

It's not a slur, it's just pointing out that your predictions of impending doom have been proven to be wrong. Onward and upward...

Well I think saying I'm glad when our economy gets kicked in the balls is a slur.

I don't take particular offence as I realise some of these comments come from the kind of intellectual might that suggests we should buy trawlers for all those city workers.

Proven to be wrong? Lets see. On the one hand I just don't think May will let us be shafted no matter what nonsense Fox and Davis dream up. But the stakes are high and the negotiation space is without doubt a minefield. I still think she is looking forward to scalding them - "you didn't get SM access? useless tw@t - naughty step for you!"

Edited by ///ajd on Wednesday 27th July 19:45

[///ajd]

TonyToniTone said:

All the good news comes from growth in April according to sky, so I guess it means nothing one way or the other.

I read it was April-June. So 3 months thinking no brexit and 6 days thinking "fck".

The next 3 months will be telling one way or another. Fingers crossed eh?

[PugwasHDJ80]

I voted for Brexit and don't think the economic consequences will be too bad.

BUT

anything we see now is the recovery of the knee jerk market reaction

the true effect will come in 12-16 months time when FX rates start to feed through the supply chain, and new orders are being placed between Uk and foreign trading partners.

Making any assumption on the current date is irrelevant.

[WinstonWolf]

///ajd said:

WinstonWolf said:

///ajd said:

WinstonWolf said:

Funny how ///ajd disappears as soon as there's good news...

Far from it 535i kindly cross posted a link to the pharma good news in a thread I just posted in to make sure I wouldn't miss it. I agreed it was welcome thing despite slurs here to the contrary.

Good to see the 0.6% growth in the qtr to end June. Thats just 3 months growth!

Looking forward to seeing that continue and accelerate into the next qts. Our growth should be well over 2% at year end!

That'll be a relief to all and something to celebrate.

It's not a slur, it's just pointing out that your predictions of impending doom have been proven to be wrong. Onward and upward...

Well I think saying I'm glad when our economy gets kicked in the balls is a slur.

I don't take particular offence as I realise some of these comments come from the kind of intellectual might that suggests we should buy trawlers for all those city workers.

Proven to be wrong? Lets see. On the one hand I just don't think May will let us be shafted no matter what nonsense Fox and Davis dream up. But the stakes are high and the negotiation space is without doubt a minefield. I still think she is looking forward to scalding them - "you didn't get SM access? useless tw@t - naughty step for you!"

Edited by ///ajd on Wednesday 27th July 19:45

If you stopped gloating and blaming the neighbours dead cat on Brexit we might take you more seriously.

[steveatesh]

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

Jockman said:

B'stard Child said:

OK it's the BBC so I didn't hold out much hope

Blame it on the Brexit: But is it just an excuse?

The article essentially says nothing....well, nothing new in any case.

Yeah but it wasn't as negative as I'd expected - almost a change in view..... almost!

I see what you're saying. You're gobsmacked the BBC is reporting positive news

Digby Jones is a prominent Brexiteer so they are declaring his views, then countering with some from Remain.

If I'm honest, I get a better analysis on here from the clever ones (when they're not having a squabble )

I see one of the remainers they took comments from is Roland Rudd, hubby of Amber Rudd that well known remain campaigner. The media are really only interested in personalities and trivia, I don't believe they have the knowledge or talent required to do in depth reporting in a non partisan way. If they have it has been kept hidden so far!

I do believe that most comments (here as well as the media) are purely opinion, it's far too early too say one way or another. There was a shock which will dissipate over time as everybody realises we have not actually left the EU yet and the sky has not fallen in either. I suspect a lot of the decisions around investment are in response to that shock, but companies won't allow inertia to be their default position for long.

There are a lot of good signals coming from future trade deals but in any event it's no just about trade, our relationship with the remaining EU states will be decided on defence and whole lot more as well as trade.

Long way to go yet!

[Burwood]

ATG said:

Burwood said:

I was an insider for 20 years and my opinion stands. The chinese wall is a myth. Well it was until I left the industry in 2005. And investment banks do speculate in a massive way. It's called prop trading. True traders, not order takers taking a tiny spread. Do you really work for a Bank?

I work at a tier 1 US bank in one of its capital mkts businesses, so with respect my experience is rather more up to date than yours. When I started out in the mid 90s at a major European bank, a large chunk of our activity was prop trading. Tier 2 and 3s always ended up being nothing more than prop desks because they never had any real customer flow. It was great fun, but an idiotic way to run a bank. And now the regulatory environment all but bans it. I can imagine the lack of flow means that some desks at smaller banks are bending the rules as much as they dare, whether or not their mgmt are aware of this, but we don't. We don't need to.

Maybe I insulted you. If I did I apologise. I didn't say I worked at jPM in the 20th century. I've worked, most likely for the same place you work for. Too many to remember. HSBC isn't one but ever other. All US, German and Swiss and Uk. I admit I'm a bid cynical now hut I have to say, happy I worked in the industry for obvious readings
A brief summary. Bar cap best bank for staff treatment/respect . DB the worst, constant foul mouth drama queens. UBS, a massive drinking culture that didn't suit me. Fine during Thursday evening on but paralytic lunches, no. Times have probably changes in the last 10 years

Edited by Burwood on Wednesday 27th July 21:22

[///ajd]

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

[Burwood]

Is that the best you can come up with. Low rent

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

Dear god you are getting desperate now.

NC is a lovely part of the world, gateway to the Southern States, one of the current boom states in the USA.

[Derek Smith]

TonyToniTone said:

All the good news comes from growth in April according to sky, so I guess it means nothing one way or the other.

Nothing means anything in the sense of the thread title. We haven't left yet. All we have at the moment is movement. Flagging something up as positive or negative news is rather pointless.

What we are seeing is the response to the vote to leave. At the moment no one has any idea of any agreement we might have.

We are still in the EU and will be for probably getting on for two years, maybe longer.

[///ajd]

jsf said:

///ajd said:

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

Dear god you are getting desperate now.

NC is a lovely part of the world, gateway to the Southern States, one of the current boom states in the USA.

My mistake, perhaps it does matter which side of the debate you're on.

[230TE]

///ajd said:

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

Hmmm... https://edpnc.com/industries/

And you think the UK should shun NC-based businesses because of an argument over transgendered people and public conveniences. Do you have a list of places we should be doing business with? I suspect it might be quite a short list.

[sidicks]

Derek Smith said:

Nothing means anything in the sense of the thread title. We haven't left yet. All we have at the moment is movement. Flagging something up as positive or negative news is rather pointless.

What we are seeing is the response to the vote to leave. At the moment no one has any idea of any agreement we might have.

We are still in the EU and will be for probably getting on for two years, maybe longer.

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

jsf said:

///ajd said:

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

Dear god you are getting desperate now.

NC is a lovely part of the world, gateway to the Southern States, one of the current boom states in the USA.

My mistake, perhaps it does matter which side of the debate you're on.

I have no words.

[anonymous-user]

jsf said:

///ajd said:

jsf said:

///ajd said:

Fox looking to scoop up some trade in the US....

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57986b2fe4b0796a...

....by chosing an anti-LBGT state that is being shunned by business for its bigotry.

No matter what side of the debate you're on, this is a bit of an odd move.

Dear god you are getting desperate now.

NC is a lovely part of the world, gateway to the Southern States, one of the current boom states in the USA.

My mistake, perhaps it does matter which side of the debate you're on.

I have no words.

Shouldn't worry about him, he's more to be pitied than scorned............

[TonyToniTone]

///ajd said:

I read it was April-June. So 3 months thinking no brexit and 6 days thinking "fck".

The next 3 months will be telling one way or another. Fingers crossed eh?

All in April. May and June were flat.

[anonymous-user]

TooLateForAName said:

jjlynn27 said:

Already explained why 100 is not the best indicator. Have a look at 250.

Even the page he links to says :
"The smaller cap FTSE 250 paints a more accurate picture of UK investor sentiment, as the vast majority of firms in the index are wholly UK-based. It ended the day 3.22%, but is still more than 1300 points lower than on Thursday, before the UK's Brexit vote"

FTSE 250 now back up above the level it was on June 22nd pre Brexit vote.

The FTSE 250 was at 15734 when the above posts were made on July 5th, it hit 17360 today, which is a gain of 1626 points.

should we now look to the FTSE 500 for our indicators jjlynn27?

[anonymous-user]

jsf said:

TooLateForAName said:

jjlynn27 said:

Already explained why 100 is not the best indicator. Have a look at 250.

Even the page he links to says :
"The smaller cap FTSE 250 paints a more accurate picture of UK investor sentiment, as the vast majority of firms in the index are wholly UK-based. It ended the day 3.22%, but is still more than 1300 points lower than on Thursday, before the UK's Brexit vote"

FTSE 250 now back up above the level it was on June 22nd pre Brexit vote.

The FTSE 250 was at 15734 when the above posts were made on July 5th, it hit 17360 today, which is a gain of 1626 points.

should we now look to the FTSE 500 for our indicators jjlynn27?

This is what you're looking for.

PugwasHDJ80 said:

I voted for Brexit and don't think the economic consequences will be too bad.

BUT

anything we see now is the recovery of the knee jerk market reaction

the trufe effect will come in 12-16 months time when FX rates start to feed through the supply chain, and new orders are being placed between Uk and foreign trading partners.

Making any assumption on the current date is irrelevant.

The FTSE250 has recovered from the drop it took on the news of the vote.

We have not yet left the EU.

The effects of leaving haven't yet - obviously - started yet.

Brexit doesn't begin and end in a month.