The economic consequences of Brexit

[prand]

Digga said:

And nothing to do with two months of striking and general fking about and flinging toys out of the pram over sensible, long overdue labour reforms.

wonder what result in July/August of post terrorist attacks will be like too to tourism.

[Murph7355]

Mario149 said:

40 years is quite a while, can you find a 40 year period where there was no armed insurrection or even a whisper thereof in the old British Empire? I can't.

And how are they "bullying and cajoling" to prevent A50's use?

I'm not familiar enough with the full history of the British Empire to be able to say for sure just how long it managed to go without arms being part of it.

But the world was a very different place back then. If we couldn't evolve away from armed confrontation then something would be seriously wrong - and the jury's still out for me on that front.

We may be more disinclined to engage on that basis now through more knowledge of warfare and more serious weaponry etc. But we're not immune to it - the Ukraine's on our doorstep after all as a stark reminder, and this continent has been far from trouble free since WWII.

(And other empires have existed btw too )

Mario149 said:

....
And how are they "bullying and cajoling" to prevent A50's use?

Cajoling - there have been several examples of referenda that haven't gone the way they were meant to only for "changes" to be made and referenda re-run. Of course you could argue that this is good and democratic and how the process should be (I'd have sympathy with that view). I do wonder what people in those countries feel about things now though. And also think things like "ever closer union" were put forwards (in this country at least) in an incredibly underhand way.

Bullying - there is no way the British are going to be offered a good deal (or words to that effect). The only reason this sort of hyperbole was being bandied around by the great and the good in the EU both before and after the referendum was as a warning to other states. That's bullying in my book.

I would also suggest the way Greece is being treated probably covers both phrases quite well (which is not intended to excuse Greece for its own predicament).

[Digga]

prand said:

Digga said:

And nothing to do with two months of striking and general fking about and flinging toys out of the pram over sensible, long overdue labour reforms.

wonder what result in July/August of post terrorist attacks will be like too to tourism.

Well a good chunk of French tourism is still stuck in Kent...

I love France and the French are amusingly idiosyncratic, but sometimes, they way they go on is about as productive and useful as a monkey humping a football.

[///ajd]

Murph7355 said:

Cajoling - there have been several examples of referenda that haven't gone the way they were meant to only for "changes" to be made and referenda re-run. Of course you could argue that this is good and democratic and how the process should be (I'd have sympathy with that view). I do wonder what people in those countries feel about things now though. And also think things like "ever closer union" were put forwards (in this country at least) in an incredibly underhand way.

Bullying - there is no way the British are going to be offered a good deal (or words to that effect). The only reason this sort of hyperbole was being bandied around by the great and the good in the EU both before and after the referendum was as a warning to other states. That's bullying in my book.

I would also suggest the way Greece is being treated probably covers both phrases quite well (which is not intended to excuse Greece for its own predicament).

If you left a golf club, they would hardly be bullying you if they said you couldn't play again without paying, would they?

The brexit "good deal" involves still playing at the golf club, for free, whilst ignoring all its rules on what guests are allowed.

[Digga]

///ajd said:

Murph7355 said:

Cajoling - there have been several examples of referenda that haven't gone the way they were meant to only for "changes" to be made and referenda re-run. Of course you could argue that this is good and democratic and how the process should be (I'd have sympathy with that view). I do wonder what people in those countries feel about things now though. And also think things like "ever closer union" were put forwards (in this country at least) in an incredibly underhand way.

Bullying - there is no way the British are going to be offered a good deal (or words to that effect). The only reason this sort of hyperbole was being bandied around by the great and the good in the EU both before and after the referendum was as a warning to other states. That's bullying in my book.

I would also suggest the way Greece is being treated probably covers both phrases quite well (which is not intended to excuse Greece for its own predicament).

If you left a golf club, they would hardly be bullying you if they said you couldn't play again without paying, would they?

The brexit "good deal" involves still playing at the golf club, for free, whilst ignoring all its rules on what guests are allowed.

A.) This is still a motoring forum, albeit we're in an obscure backwater of it.
B.) Your golf club analogy was crying out for it.

[Gargamel]

I will just leave this here, and say - more like this please

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/29/uk-...

[Guybrush]

Gargamel said:

I will just leave this here, and say - more like this please

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/29/uk-...

Good news. Probably absent from the Guardian and BBC, given how they love to talk us down.

[///ajd]

Gargamel said:

I will just leave this here, and say - more like this please

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/29/uk-...

It says nothing to get excited about. Based on pre ref data (though can't quite bring itself to be upfront about that, funny) just says the non-EU market is growing slighty faster than the EU market. This is not news - it most certainly NOT a reason to stick two fingers up at our biggest market, even though that is often how this is being spun.


If we're doing sniff, you can see which side of the fence he's on:

http://sniffpetrol.com/2016/06/23/leave-campaign-m...

"The Rover 75 Brexit where it is happiest - yesterday."

[Digga]

///ajd said:

If we're doing sniff, you can see which side of the fence he's on:

http://sniffpetrol.com/2016/06/23/leave-campaign-m...

"The Rover 75 Brexit where it is happiest - yesterday."

Don't know whether that tells us which side of the fence he's on, as much as the fact he clearly sees the humour in the misplaced nostalgia of some of the "get our country back" idiots. Funny though.

[anonymous-user]

uktradeinfo is a good source if anyone is interested. (Inland revenue figures)

[Gargamel]

///ajd said:

It says nothing to get excited about. Based on pre ref data (though can't quite bring itself to be upfront about that, funny) just says the non-EU market is growing slighty faster than the EU market. This is not news - it most certainly NOT a reason to stick two fingers up at our biggest market, even though that is often how this is being spun.

It is news, it says Europe is growing very very slowly and we are selling more goods and services outside the EU than before and that this is a trend since 2010.

We should not "stick two fingers up" at any trading relationship, but all the doom and gloom that we can't trade unless we are inside the EU is a a load of a tosh and b Europe is a stagnate market, not where the action is.

Trade is a trend, it may well be pre ref data, and it is clear about that, but it indicates that we sell more outside Europe than to it. Perhaps that in itself might be news to some of the remoaners.

[///ajd]

Digga said:

///ajd said:

If we're doing sniff, you can see which side of the fence he's on:

http://sniffpetrol.com/2016/06/23/leave-campaign-m...

"The Rover 75 Brexit where it is happiest - yesterday."

Don't know whether that tells us which side of the fence he's on, as much as the fact he clearly sees the humour in the misplaced nostalgia of some of the "get our country back" idiots. Funny though.

This bit seemed a bit revealing to me:

...the new Rover 75 Brexit will come with a number of special features including a handbrake that is jammed on, a gearbox that only goes in reverse and a special feature that allows the driver to angrily blame external factors for the utter failure of their own life....

[don'tbesilly]

///ajd said:

Digga said:

///ajd said:

If we're doing sniff, you can see which side of the fence he's on:

http://sniffpetrol.com/2016/06/23/leave-campaign-m...

"The Rover 75 Brexit where it is happiest - yesterday."

Don't know whether that tells us which side of the fence he's on, as much as the fact he clearly sees the humour in the misplaced nostalgia of some of the "get our country back" idiots. Funny though.

This bit seemed a bit revealing to me:

...the new Rover 75 Brexit will come with a number of special features including a handbrake that is jammed on, a gearbox that only goes in reverse and a special feature that allows the driver to angrily blame external factors for the utter failure of their own life....

Not sure why it's revealing,you should be able to identity and empathise with the description better than most

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

This bit seemed a bit revealing to me:

...the new Rover 75 Brexit will come with a number of special features including a handbrake that is jammed on, a gearbox that only goes in reverse and a special feature that allows the driver to angrily blame external factors for the utter failure of their own life....

Sounds more like an Italian car to me.... mama mia are they Itexiting now?

[Digga]

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

This bit seemed a bit revealing to me:

...the new Rover 75 Brexit will come with a number of special features including a handbrake that is jammed on, a gearbox that only goes in reverse and a special feature that allows the driver to angrily blame external factors for the utter failure of their own life....

Sounds more like an Italian car to me.... mama mia are they Itexiting now?

The Moris Itex was a hateful car - a Barried-up Marina.

[Gargamel]

Digga said:

he Moris Itex was a hateful car - a Barried-up Marina.

Ital I am reasonable sure, I learned to drive in one !

Thought it was awesome at the time, but then I'd never driven anything else

[ATG]

Gargamel said:

Trade is a trend, it may well be pre ref data, and it is clear about that, but it indicates that we sell more outside Europe than to it. Perhaps that in itself might be news to some of the remoaners.

It isn't news to anyone who knows anything about the UK economy.

A rational person, and indeed newspaper, might conclude from those figures that EU membership was not holding back our foreign trade with the rest of the world in 2015.

If we wanted the UK to go on an export drive, we could have done it quite happily from within the EU.

Poor growth in Europe doesn't make it any less stupid of us to make trading with them more difficult. If you're a UK firm that does a lot of business with EU companies you'll already have been suffering as a result of their economic sluggishness. Brexit creates the risk that you'll also have to trade with them on worse terms. There's no good news there for exporters.

[///ajd]

Unwelcome news

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fo...

Is brexit being used as a brexcuse? Seems largely £ value related, so perhaps not.

[sidicks]

ATG said:

It isn't news to anyone who knows anything about the UK economy.

A rational person, and indeed newspaper, might conclude from those figures that EU membership was not holding back our foreign trade with the rest of the world in 2015.

If we wanted the UK to go on an export drive, we could have done it quite happily from within the EU.

Poor growth in Europe doesn't make it any less stupid of us to make trading with them more difficult.

Likewise, poor growth in Europe doesn't make it any less stupid of them to make trading with us more difficult....

ATG said:

If you're a UK firm that does a lot of business with EU companies you'll already have been suffering as a result of their economic sluggishness. Brexit creates the risk that you'll also have to trade with them on worse terms.

See above.

ATG said:

here's no good news there for exporters.

What about exporters to non-EU countries who may no longer be constrained by EU rules...?

[anonymous-user]

We already trade outside of the EU we are still in the EU.

We have no new trade deals in place and we need to protect our economy.

When we leave we still won't have those trade deals. Let's hope we don't get bent over a barrel.