The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
GoodOlBoy said:
But the EU doesn't apply the same rules to trade deals with non-European countries. Aside from anything else they'd never get away with it.
So in effect they have changed the rules, or rather they haven't applied them to other trade deals. Once outside the EU why should the UK be treated any differently ?
Irrespective of fees and political policies, the EU actually benefits more than the UK from tariff-free trade, it is a great deal for them and one they're desperately trying to negotiate with Canada and the USA.
I'm not saying it will happen, merely that applying FML and other political requirements to trade deals isn't the way for the EU to go.
The whole reason for FML and many of the EU laws and policies is to facilitate "ever closer union" . For any country outside the EU it simply doesn't make sense to insist on compliance with policies that add no value to trading partnerships.
You keep repeating same thing over and over again. It's not the same access. No services for example. There are other differences too. So in effect they have changed the rules, or rather they haven't applied them to other trade deals. Once outside the EU why should the UK be treated any differently ?
Irrespective of fees and political policies, the EU actually benefits more than the UK from tariff-free trade, it is a great deal for them and one they're desperately trying to negotiate with Canada and the USA.
I'm not saying it will happen, merely that applying FML and other political requirements to trade deals isn't the way for the EU to go.
The whole reason for FML and many of the EU laws and policies is to facilitate "ever closer union" . For any country outside the EU it simply doesn't make sense to insist on compliance with policies that add no value to trading partnerships.
Derek Smith said:
Every farm round my way had Leave posters wherever they faced main roads. My elder son came to visit about 6 weeks before the vote and was stunned. He thought that farmers might lose some of the subsidy they enjoyed. Go back to pre Common Market and farmers were struggling.
And they probably will lose some of their subsidy. Perhaps they were thinking that they'd rather farm than live on handouts, I'm not certain though. jjlynn27 said:
You keep repeating same thing over and over again. It's not the same access. No services for example. There are other differences too.
I'm aware that not all trade deals are identical, as is everyone else. You don't have to keep repeating it
I was responding to another contributor.
///ajd said:
paywalled but from ft.com
Carney will slash growth forecast for UK to pretty much 0%, citing poor indicators across economy.
Looks like a rate cut is coming, plus rumours or requests at any rate for 5% off VAT.
The FT is where I go these days. Depressing this weekend.Carney will slash growth forecast for UK to pretty much 0%, citing poor indicators across economy.
Looks like a rate cut is coming, plus rumours or requests at any rate for 5% off VAT.
In the Brexit round up they summarised it like this;
Consumer Confidence - Poor
Purchasing Manager Index - Worrying
Construction Sector - Worrying
Online Transactions - Poor
Housing Demand - Poor
FFS.....
AC43 said:
///ajd said:
paywalled but from ft.com
Carney will slash growth forecast for UK to pretty much 0%, citing poor indicators across economy.
Looks like a rate cut is coming, plus rumours or requests at any rate for 5% off VAT.
The FT is where I go these days. Depressing this weekend.Carney will slash growth forecast for UK to pretty much 0%, citing poor indicators across economy.
Looks like a rate cut is coming, plus rumours or requests at any rate for 5% off VAT.
In the Brexit round up they summarised it like this;
Consumer Confidence - Poor
Purchasing Manager Index - Worrying
Construction Sector - Worrying
Online Transactions - Poor
Housing Demand - Poor
FFS.....
It will be interesting to see if this constant economic bad news starts to change public opinion on brexit.
- Stronger, safer, better off. True.
- Take back control. And?
Consumer confidence is down from an exceptional high. I am not wholly convinced that UK being a nation of shopaholics is healthy, desirable or even necessary for our collective success. It's still above 2013 levels.
Also, I'd agree with David Smith from the Sunday Times about one significant point:
Also, I'd agree with David Smith from the Sunday Times about one significant point:
David Smith said:
As for business confidence, there have been times when its plunge has been a harbinger of recession. Mostly, this has happened when the global economy has also been in trouble. And, while the world economy is not in great shape now, the clouds hanging over it have lifted a little since the start of the year.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/confidence-has-crumbled-but-it-can-be-rebuilt-wz7gw3mh0?shareToken=8365682b52a9e42bf94430274bbecd47Digga said:
Consumer confidence is down from an exceptional high. I am not wholly convinced that UK being a nation of shopaholics is healthy, desirable or even necessary for our collective success. It's still above 2013 levels.
Also, I'd agree with David Smith from the Sunday Times about one significant point:
One of the points I made before the referendum (continually) was that, despite problems in the rest of the world the UK was doing well, confidence was high, unemployment was low, the economy was growing, and we were doing well as members of the EU. If the world economy is starting to recover surely the UK would expect to do even better as we did well enough in the downturn? Yet unsurprisingly business confidence has fallen off a cliff.Also, I'd agree with David Smith from the Sunday Times about one significant point:
David Smith said:
As for business confidence, there have been times when its plunge has been a harbinger of recession. Mostly, this has happened when the global economy has also been in trouble. And, while the world economy is not in great shape now, the clouds hanging over it have lifted a little since the start of the year.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/confidence-has-crumbled-but-it-can-be-rebuilt-wz7gw3mh0?shareToken=8365682b52a9e42bf94430274bbecd47RYH64E said:
One of the points I made before the referendum (continually) was that, despite problems in the rest of the world the UK was doing well, confidence was high, unemployment was low, the economy was growing, and we were doing well as members of the EU. If the world economy is starting to recover surely the UK would expect to do even better as we did well enough in the downturn? Yet unsurprisingly business confidence has fallen off a cliff.
I think the uncertainty was never going to create anything other than an initial, negative PMI, but moving forward, the fact the ROW is not also struggling gives far better opportunity for recovery.RYH64E said:
One of the points I made before the referendum (continually) was that, despite problems in the rest of the world the UK was doing well, confidence was high, unemployment was low, the economy was growing, and we were doing well as members of the EU. If the world economy is starting to recover surely the UK would expect to do even better as we did well enough in the downturn? Yet unsurprisingly business confidence has fallen off a cliff.
I'm not sure the world economy is doing that well. There were some promising signs earlier in the year but is looking increasingly like a bit of a false dawn. The "recoveries" in Europe in particular all look as if they are stalling - France, Italy and even Germany looking like growth has stalled and the US is now prevaricating over further rate rises.Not sure where all this doom and gloom is coming from? Having spent most of Saturday in Bristol all I could see was packed bars, restaurants etc everywhere, not a single spare ticket for the show we went to in the evening and late train home packed to the gunnels.
When we got back to Bath on the last train going to Paddington the platform was heaving and we had to almost fight to get off the damn thing....to my untrained eye it didn't look like people were anticipating the end of western civilisation as we know it.....we're doooooooooooomed I tell ya.
When we got back to Bath on the last train going to Paddington the platform was heaving and we had to almost fight to get off the damn thing....to my untrained eye it didn't look like people were anticipating the end of western civilisation as we know it.....we're doooooooooooomed I tell ya.
///ajd said:
I wonder whether the FT will be put on the brexcuses naughty step.
It will be interesting to see if this constant economic bad news starts to change public opinion on brexit.
- Stronger, safer, better off. True.
- Take back control. And?
What a load of old carp you post!It will be interesting to see if this constant economic bad news starts to change public opinion on brexit.
- Stronger, safer, better off. True.
- Take back control. And?
Did you really think the economy was flourishing before the vote? Think again, thanks to 8 years of Osbourne the country WAS and REMAINED skint; you have forgotten the lies from both him and Cameron that austerity would be short lived and over within a term.
The countries infrastructure was and remains falling apart, nothing has changed in those 8 wasted years apart from the MP's who have continued to milk it for all it's worth. £30 billion, mostly of which to leave to leave the country, for a power station??
We had a chance for change but it is being pushed aside by the same corrupt system: the only good thing is that this is not the end of the beginning... it is the beginning of the end...
Sylvaforever said:
What a load of old carp you post!
Did you really think the economy was flourishing before the vote? Think again, thanks to 8 years of Osbourne the country WAS and REMAINED skint; you have forgotten the lies from both him and Cameron that austerity would be short lived and over within a term.
The Country was skint due to Blair & Brown. Osborne managed to reduce the overspending but still got castigated for 'austerity'.Did you really think the economy was flourishing before the vote? Think again, thanks to 8 years of Osbourne the country WAS and REMAINED skint; you have forgotten the lies from both him and Cameron that austerity would be short lived and over within a term.
Sylvaforever said:
The countries infrastructure was and remains falling apart, nothing has changed in those 8 wasted years apart from the MP's who have continued to milk it for all it's worth. £30 billion, mostly of which to leave to leave the country, for a power station??
If only Blair and Brown had actually used record tax receipts to actually fund some infrastructure spending...
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