The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
London424 said:
AC43 said:
jsf said:
AC43 said:
Just back from Greece.
Every time I took 400 Euros out of the cash machine on the island I was being charged north of £380.
Apparently some of the UK airports were offering 99c to for £1 whilst I was over there.
Made the trip VERY expensive.
As for taking the Mrs to NY on a long-promised trip sod that until the £ recovers.
You have to be a moron if you buy currency on spec at the airport, they always ream you.Every time I took 400 Euros out of the cash machine on the island I was being charged north of £380.
Apparently some of the UK airports were offering 99c to for £1 whilst I was over there.
Made the trip VERY expensive.
As for taking the Mrs to NY on a long-promised trip sod that until the £ recovers.
The point you make highlights just how bad the Euro has been for the Greek economy, they need a much cheaper currency if they sre ever going to attract the numbers of tourists they need to balance the books. Until they leave the Euro they are well and truly buggered.
And yes it's a double whammy - the Greeks are totally shagged by the politics and policies around the Euro and I've had my currency shagged by Brexit.
Let's hope it's a short term thing. Although at the rate the BoE are going to have to print money during the years of uncertainty ahead I'm not holding my breath.
fblm said:
You were whining about the cost of your holiday going up due to Brexit. The graph was simply to provide you some perspective.
Did the graph mean that the rate of exchange was back to what it was before the vote (not brexit remember. We're not out yet)? If not then the graph has no relevance to the reduced rate of exchange. History is all very well, but it doesn't reduce costs.Not whining, just pointing out that the result of the vote has negatives as well as positives.
Greg66 said:
don4l said:
Greg66 said:
Those are two of the most gigantic lies you have peddled during your time on this forum. And that's saying something, because you've really spouted some absolute whoppers.
When you are caught with your lying trousers round your ankles smack bang in the middle of the park, your MO is to skulk off into the bushes, wait for things to move on, and then return more brazen than ever.
In this mini dialogue you've utterly shamelessly and dishonestly segued from talking about Brexit to the Brexit vote as if there is no difference between them.
To adopt your classic posting style:
I can't believe anyone is so stupid as to believe that.
Which means you've been completely dishonest.
Or are you just that stupid?
Which is it? Incredibly stupid, or outlandishly dishonest?
We know that words are your "thing". Nor are numbers your "thing". And you admit you don't understand finance. You have a good grasp of the WEEE Regulations though, and the £500 or so a year they cost your business which seems (on your account) to have placed it on the very of some sort of permanent financial calamity.
So whatever you are, we can add ill-informed to the list.
And if you really believe that the EU hasn't been planning the destruction of the banking industry in London since the vote, you must be stupid. Perhaps you're ill-informed, stupid and dishonest.
Who knows? Who cares? Not me.
<snip>When you are caught with your lying trousers round your ankles smack bang in the middle of the park, your MO is to skulk off into the bushes, wait for things to move on, and then return more brazen than ever.
In this mini dialogue you've utterly shamelessly and dishonestly segued from talking about Brexit to the Brexit vote as if there is no difference between them.
To adopt your classic posting style:
I can't believe anyone is so stupid as to believe that.
Which means you've been completely dishonest.
Or are you just that stupid?
Which is it? Incredibly stupid, or outlandishly dishonest?
We know that words are your "thing". Nor are numbers your "thing". And you admit you don't understand finance. You have a good grasp of the WEEE Regulations though, and the £500 or so a year they cost your business which seems (on your account) to have placed it on the very of some sort of permanent financial calamity.
So whatever you are, we can add ill-informed to the list.
And if you really believe that the EU hasn't been planning the destruction of the banking industry in London since the vote, you must be stupid. Perhaps you're ill-informed, stupid and dishonest.
Who knows? Who cares? Not me.
Furthermore, I am much better than average at "numbers".
<snip>
Thank you. That is much clearer now.
You told us that we would see the effects on te financial markets within 48 hours of a successful "Leave" vote.
You were wrong!
You also said that there wouldn't be growth after a Brexit vote.
Greg66 said:
Good luck spinning that into "huge UK growth after a Brexit vote". Is this the note written by an analyst, or is it the official view of DB?
There has been huge growth.Consumer spending has risen.
House prices have risen (not necessarily a good thing, but an indicator of confidence)
Exports have risen.
Unemployment has fallen.
The stock markets have risen.
The Pound has fallen.
What are you upset about?
don4l said:
There has been huge growth.
Consumer spending has risen.
House prices have risen (not necessarily a good thing, but an indicator of confidence)
Exports have risen.
Unemployment has fallen.
The stock markets have risen.
The Pound has fallen.
What are you upset about?
House prices have fallen down my way, and by about 5%. Asking prices are still high but people are taking offers.Consumer spending has risen.
House prices have risen (not necessarily a good thing, but an indicator of confidence)
Exports have risen.
Unemployment has fallen.
The stock markets have risen.
The Pound has fallen.
What are you upset about?
Dons't unemployment always fall this time of year?
The state of the £ is a neutral event; good for some, terrible for others.
But all this is immaterial. It is what happens when we leave, and even in that case a month after is again immaterial. Medium/long term is what is important.
Further, we have no idea why these indicators are reacting this way.
Spending went up before WWII you know. Even now theories of the wise and informed contradict.
What is worse is that, according to some posters on here, I've not checked, there is an increased likelihood of problems in the EU, even to the extent of a break-up. This will hurt us if it happens. Boy will it. So the omens are not good at the moment.
But no one knows whether exit will be a positive or negative for this country. No one. We don't even know the plan, or the settlement. At the moment we have no idea of when, even if, Article 50 will be activated. So all this 'good news' is rubbish.
The worrying thing is that if there are immediate financial problems on exit, and no one knows, no even posters on PH, in 3 years, then the electorate is going to be unhappy. All your hopes, dreams and mystic desires depend on lots of people being happy with the result that May gets us. It's one thing to laugh and ridicule the bloke who can't recognise empty seats on a train, but he may well be listening to his advisors by then and appearing, if not statesman like, then perhaps not such an idiot.
If you fall over a cliff, it is no good thinking, "So far, so good." on the way down.
As mentioned above, we haven't actually left yet.
Everything that has happened has just been in relation to the vote, rather than the action.
Uncertainty is up at the moment but nothing material has changed yet.
So unemployment hasn't risen but new jobs have fallen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36975320
Facilities etc aren't closed, and orders aren't being cancelled but new decisions are being put on hold.
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/01/post-referendu...
These types of decisions won't affect some of the headline numbers but will be seen later on.
The worrying thing is that there still appears to be no 'plan', no goal in negotiation and no sign of any certainty any time soon. The longer that this goes on, the lower the hiring rates, the lower the investment and the worse it gets.
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
Everything that has happened has just been in relation to the vote, rather than the action.
Uncertainty is up at the moment but nothing material has changed yet.
So unemployment hasn't risen but new jobs have fallen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36975320
Facilities etc aren't closed, and orders aren't being cancelled but new decisions are being put on hold.
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/01/post-referendu...
These types of decisions won't affect some of the headline numbers but will be seen later on.
The worrying thing is that there still appears to be no 'plan', no goal in negotiation and no sign of any certainty any time soon. The longer that this goes on, the lower the hiring rates, the lower the investment and the worse it gets.
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
cookie118 said:
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
Nobody promised a resolution in less than two years. In fact the 'leavers' accepted it could be longer.cookie118 said:
As mentioned above, we haven't actually left yet.
Everything that has happened has just been in relation to the vote, rather than the action.
Uncertainty is up at the moment but nothing material has changed yet.
So unemployment hasn't risen but new jobs have fallen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36975320
Facilities etc aren't closed, and orders aren't being cancelled but new decisions are being put on hold.
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/01/post-referendu...
These types of decisions won't affect some of the headline numbers but will be seen later on.
The worrying thing is that there still appears to be no 'plan', no goal in negotiation and no sign of any certainty any time soon. The longer that this goes on, the lower the hiring rates, the lower the investment and the worse it gets.
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
The plan is to prepare the facilities and people for the negotiations once ART50 is invoked. Everything that has happened has just been in relation to the vote, rather than the action.
Uncertainty is up at the moment but nothing material has changed yet.
So unemployment hasn't risen but new jobs have fallen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36975320
Facilities etc aren't closed, and orders aren't being cancelled but new decisions are being put on hold.
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/01/post-referendu...
These types of decisions won't affect some of the headline numbers but will be seen later on.
The worrying thing is that there still appears to be no 'plan', no goal in negotiation and no sign of any certainty any time soon. The longer that this goes on, the lower the hiring rates, the lower the investment and the worse it gets.
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
Why would you expect anything else at this stage?
cookie118 said:
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
Why? I would argue that surely waiting and holding our powder is probably the most sensible current course of action. You would have to be mad to rush an agreement through now, given the very significant economic changes looming for the main EU players like France, Italy and Spain. Given that France is vociferously the most anti-UK and anti-Brexit and has made threats about 'punishment', it behooves us to wait a.) in the hope their economic weight will diminish further, to the point the (more sensible and pragmatic) Germans have more leverage in the negotiations and b.) that they (and possibly Italy too) have more EU skeptic political landscapes of their own.Digga said:
cookie118 said:
We need a good and speedy resolution, but as with many of the promises made by the leave side, it seems that we'll find out that we can't have our cake and eat it like promised.
Why? I would argue that surely waiting and holding our powder is probably the most sensible current course of action. You would have to be mad to rush an agreement through now, given the very significant economic changes looming for the main EU players like France, Italy and Spain. Given that France is vociferously the most anti-UK and anti-Brexit and has made threats about 'punishment', it behooves us to wait a.) in the hope their economic weight will diminish further, to the point the (more sensible and pragmatic) Germans have more leverage in the negotiations and b.) that they (and possibly Italy too) have more EU skeptic political landscapes of their own.youngsyr said:
A quick resolution is best for investment and growth, whilst a wait and see strategy may be result in better terms at the cost of time, but it's irrelevant anyway, it's going to take years.
I do agree, as it happens - we can wish for swift resolution, and for investment in the short term, it is perhaps preferable, but it is not going to happen - and for this reason think that a critical part of the short term strategy must be for the UK government to invest in the infrastructure, to fill the gap of or to oil the wheels of, private sector investment.Digga said:
youngsyr said:
A quick resolution is best for investment and growth, whilst a wait and see strategy may be result in better terms at the cost of time, but it's irrelevant anyway, it's going to take years.
I do agree, as it happens - we can wish for swift resolution, and for investment in the short term, it is perhaps preferable, but it is not going to happen - and for this reason think that a critical part of the short term strategy must be for the UK government to invest in the infrastructure, to fill the gap of or to oil the wheels of, private sector investment.Digga said:
Given that France is vociferously the most anti-UK and anti-Brexit and has made threats about 'punishment', it behooves us to wait
I know it's off topic, but that comment does make me smile. What a turn around. Does anyone remember when we first wanted to join the EEC in 1963 and it was France who stopped us ? Then again in '67 De Gaulle came out with his "non" again, this time threatening that if we joined it would break up the EEC.And now we want to leave, you'd think they'd be pleased, "non" ?
youngsyr said:
Good job the government during the boom years abolished boom and bust economics and didn't spunk all the surplus tax revenue, otherwise we wouldn't have any funds left to cover short term downturns like this.
Well at least we can borrow at low rates and if spent remotely wisely - decent road and rail projects - will help add capacity and efficiency to the economy, whilst creating a few jobs at the same time.Digga said:
youngsyr said:
Good job the government during the boom years abolished boom and bust economics and didn't spunk all the surplus tax revenue, otherwise we wouldn't have any funds left to cover short term downturns like this.
Well at least we can borrow at low rates and if spent remotely wisely - decent road and rail projects - will help add capacity and efficiency to the economy, whilst creating a few jobs at the same time.I'm not sure having the government spend billions to prop up the economy is any better than just giving every person a few grand direct into their bank account. Sure, a lot of that money may well be sat on or end up overseas via imports, but the way we're going that's the same with large infrastructure projects anyway - at least you can say it's democratic, which seems to be all the rage at the moment.
b2hbm said:
Then again in '67 De Gaulle came out with his "non" again, this time threatening that if we joined it would break up the EEC.
De Gaulle may well be proved right on that one if brexit does happen. And mark my words a collapse of the entire EU would be catastrophic for us.Well done, leave voters. Slow hand clap.
youngsyr said:
And that wise spending on decent infrastructure projects will be by the same mob that has delivered the 3rd runway at Heathrow, HS2 and Hinkley Point C?!
I'm not sure having the government spend billions to prop up the economy is any better than just giving every person a few grand direct into their bank account. Sure, a lot of that money may well be sat on or end up overseas via imports, but the way we're going that's the same with large infrastructure projects anyway - at least you can say it's democratic, which seems to be all the rage at the moment.
We don't have Hinkley - that seems to be being held as a bargaining chip in the Brexit negotiations. As for the other two projects, I do actually think they will both bring the unarguable benefits of greater volume capabilities'I'm not sure having the government spend billions to prop up the economy is any better than just giving every person a few grand direct into their bank account. Sure, a lot of that money may well be sat on or end up overseas via imports, but the way we're going that's the same with large infrastructure projects anyway - at least you can say it's democratic, which seems to be all the rage at the moment.
Dr Jekyll said:
SilverSixer said:
And mark my words a collapse of the entire EU would be catastrophic for us.
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