The economic consequences of Brexit

[loafer123]

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

Digga said:

SilverSixer said:

The financial fall out caused by the break up of political and trade relations between our major partners would have political and economic effects of enormous an mainly negative consequence. Isn't that obvious?

Not that I disagree with the point, but rather the cause; what are you seeing when you look at France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal that does not suggest severely difficult economic conditions ahead, irrespective of Brexit?

Oh, nothing. Just that the leave vote has potentially made the situation even worse, and a realised brexit would compound that. Both events are not conducive to an improvement in the condition of our partners, and are therefore detrimental to our own prospects concurrently. Where we could have helped, we have poured petrol. The vote to leave has given encouragement to other right-wing Eurosceptic parties and given their position more credence than it previously had, increasing the chances of further leave votes/Eurosceptic governments being elected across the EU, increasing the chances of a breakdown of the EU entirely, increasing the prospect of a political and economic decline across the continent, increasing the chances of impoverishing us all. Meanwhile we wrap ourselves in flags and say everything's better because Nationalism.

I can't see any way in which the leave vote has, or can have, positive political or economic consequences across the wider EU, let alone in the UK.

Two likely beneficial consequences of the Brexit vote are;

1 that it triggers a more realistic vision for the EU which means that the EU survives (it won't if they don't)
2 it means we have greater access to world markets through agreeing bi-lateral trade agreements, creating additional economic growth

This sounds like a brexiter's version of that much derided socialist magic money tree.

I gave you concise, clear and well reasoned answers.

If you refuse to read them sensibly, that's your lookout.

[don'tbesilly]

SilverSixer said:

don'tbesilly said:

SilverSixer said:

Dr Jekyll said:

SilverSixer said:

Oh, nothing. Just that the leave vote has potentially made the situation even worse, and a realised brexit would compound that. Both events are not conducive to an improvement in the condition of our partners, and are therefore detrimental to our own prospects concurrently. Where we could have helped, we have poured petrol. The vote to leave has given encouragement to other right-wing Eurosceptic parties and given their position more credence than it previously had, increasing the chances of further leave votes/Eurosceptic governments being elected across the EU, increasing the chances of a breakdown of the EU entirely, increasing the prospect of a political and economic decline across the continent, increasing the chances of impoverishing us all. Meanwhile we wrap ourselves in flags and say everything's better because Nationalism.

I can't see any way in which the leave vote has, or can have, positive political or economic consequences across the wider EU, let alone in the UK.

in what way could we conceivably have helped?

Er, by remaining. Which we probably will in the end anyway.

Carry on with the fantasy, although I'd recommend the coffee, it's not as bitter as you are

Dunno, sounds a bit foreign to me. Shouldn't we all be drinking Yorkshire Tea with 8 sugars now, tea and sugar being such native crops to Our England?

Well as there (tea/sugar) not native crops to the UK, I'm not really sure what your point is?

[loafer123]

SilverSixer said:

Dr Jekyll said:

SilverSixer said:

Dunno, sounds a bit foreign to me. Shouldn't we all be drinking Yorkshire Tea with 8 sugars now, tea and sugar being such native crops to Our England?

No, because once we leave the EU we can import from coffee producing areas of the world without the EU interfering and insisting on tariffs.

Interesting economic theory that we'll get a better price as a single buyer than as part of a consortium placing a much bigger order.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/africa-eu-poverty-james-cleverly_uk_5720d08be4b0a1e971cad84f

Apparently, due to EU tariffs and rules, Germany makes as much out of coffee as the producers in Africa do. Just imagine how much more efficient it will be to cut out the middle man, and how much that will help Africa to develop...

[SilverSixer]

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

Digga said:

SilverSixer said:

The financial fall out caused by the break up of political and trade relations between our major partners would have political and economic effects of enormous an mainly negative consequence. Isn't that obvious?

Not that I disagree with the point, but rather the cause; what are you seeing when you look at France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal that does not suggest severely difficult economic conditions ahead, irrespective of Brexit?

Oh, nothing. Just that the leave vote has potentially made the situation even worse, and a realised brexit would compound that. Both events are not conducive to an improvement in the condition of our partners, and are therefore detrimental to our own prospects concurrently. Where we could have helped, we have poured petrol. The vote to leave has given encouragement to other right-wing Eurosceptic parties and given their position more credence than it previously had, increasing the chances of further leave votes/Eurosceptic governments being elected across the EU, increasing the chances of a breakdown of the EU entirely, increasing the prospect of a political and economic decline across the continent, increasing the chances of impoverishing us all. Meanwhile we wrap ourselves in flags and say everything's better because Nationalism.

I can't see any way in which the leave vote has, or can have, positive political or economic consequences across the wider EU, let alone in the UK.

Two likely beneficial consequences of the Brexit vote are;

1 that it triggers a more realistic vision for the EU which means that the EU survives (it won't if they don't)
2 it means we have greater access to world markets through agreeing bi-lateral trade agreements, creating additional economic growth

This sounds like a brexiter's version of that much derided socialist magic money tree.

I gave you concise, clear and well reasoned answers.

If you refuse to read them sensibly, that's your lookout.

Clear and partly reasoned they may have been. Balanced and realistic they were not.

[sidicks]

SilverSixer said:

Interesting economic theory that we'll get a better price as a single buyer than as part of a consortium placing a much bigger order.

It appears as though you don't understand EU tariffs either?

[loafer123]

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

Digga said:

SilverSixer said:

The financial fall out caused by the break up of political and trade relations between our major partners would have political and economic effects of enormous an mainly negative consequence. Isn't that obvious?

Not that I disagree with the point, but rather the cause; what are you seeing when you look at France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal that does not suggest severely difficult economic conditions ahead, irrespective of Brexit?

Oh, nothing. Just that the leave vote has potentially made the situation even worse, and a realised brexit would compound that. Both events are not conducive to an improvement in the condition of our partners, and are therefore detrimental to our own prospects concurrently. Where we could have helped, we have poured petrol. The vote to leave has given encouragement to other right-wing Eurosceptic parties and given their position more credence than it previously had, increasing the chances of further leave votes/Eurosceptic governments being elected across the EU, increasing the chances of a breakdown of the EU entirely, increasing the prospect of a political and economic decline across the continent, increasing the chances of impoverishing us all. Meanwhile we wrap ourselves in flags and say everything's better because Nationalism.

I can't see any way in which the leave vote has, or can have, positive political or economic consequences across the wider EU, let alone in the UK.

Two likely beneficial consequences of the Brexit vote are;

1 that it triggers a more realistic vision for the EU which means that the EU survives (it won't if they don't)
2 it means we have greater access to world markets through agreeing bi-lateral trade agreements, creating additional economic growth

This sounds like a brexiter's version of that much derided socialist magic money tree.

I gave you concise, clear and well reasoned answers.

If you refuse to read them sensibly, that's your lookout.

Clear and partly reasoned they may have been. Balanced and realistic they were not.

Which do you disagree with?

On point 1, Angela Merkel and many other EU country leaders have said that they want the EU to realign it's remit to fit with the desires of it's population.

On point 2, China, the US and many other countries with whom the EU does not have trade agreements have indicated they wish to do so with us as soon as possible.

[ou sont les biscuits]

loafer123 said:

On point 2, China, the US and many other countries with whom the EU does not have trade agreements have indicated they wish to do so with us as soon as possible.

That rather depends on who ends up in the White House......

[Digga]

ou sont les biscuits said:

loafer123 said:

On point 2, China, the US and many other countries with whom the EU does not have trade agreements have indicated they wish to do so with us as soon as possible.

That rather depends on who ends up in the White House......

Well it seems certain to be a non-human.

[SilverSixer]

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

loafer123 said:

SilverSixer said:

Digga said:

SilverSixer said:

The financial fall out caused by the break up of political and trade relations between our major partners would have political and economic effects of enormous an mainly negative consequence. Isn't that obvious?

Not that I disagree with the point, but rather the cause; what are you seeing when you look at France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal that does not suggest severely difficult economic conditions ahead, irrespective of Brexit?

Oh, nothing. Just that the leave vote has potentially made the situation even worse, and a realised brexit would compound that. Both events are not conducive to an improvement in the condition of our partners, and are therefore detrimental to our own prospects concurrently. Where we could have helped, we have poured petrol. The vote to leave has given encouragement to other right-wing Eurosceptic parties and given their position more credence than it previously had, increasing the chances of further leave votes/Eurosceptic governments being elected across the EU, increasing the chances of a breakdown of the EU entirely, increasing the prospect of a political and economic decline across the continent, increasing the chances of impoverishing us all. Meanwhile we wrap ourselves in flags and say everything's better because Nationalism.

I can't see any way in which the leave vote has, or can have, positive political or economic consequences across the wider EU, let alone in the UK.

Two likely beneficial consequences of the Brexit vote are;

1 that it triggers a more realistic vision for the EU which means that the EU survives (it won't if they don't)
2 it means we have greater access to world markets through agreeing bi-lateral trade agreements, creating additional economic growth

This sounds like a brexiter's version of that much derided socialist magic money tree.

I gave you concise, clear and well reasoned answers.

If you refuse to read them sensibly, that's your lookout.

Clear and partly reasoned they may have been. Balanced and realistic they were not.

Which do you disagree with?

On point 1, Angela Merkel and many other EU country leaders have said that they want the EU to realign it's remit to fit with the desires of it's population.

On point 2, China, the US and many other countries with whom the EU does not have trade agreements have indicated they wish to do so with us as soon as possible.

You simply need to look in my second post of this little sub thread to see what I was saying, but clearly you didn't want to give any thought to that. I was saying that the leave vote has precipitated a situation in which a break up of the entire EU has become more likely and gave reasons, and should that happen the consequences would be overall negative for us and all our EU partners. This is a real risk which the leave vote has invited upon us.

On your point 1, well if that happens wouldn't you like an option for the UK to be part of that? Following through with brexit will deny us that opportunity.

On your point 2, we already trade with these nations and send out trade missions to strike deals, without 'interference' or 'restriction' from the EU.

[Dr Jekyll]

SilverSixer said:

You simply need to look in my second post of this little sub thread to see what I was saying, but clearly you didn't want to give any thought to that. I was saying that the leave vote has precipitated a situation in which a break up of the entire EU has become more likely and gave reasons, and should that happen the consequences would be overall negative for us and all our EU partners. This is a real risk which the leave vote has invited upon us.

On your point 1, well if that happens wouldn't you like an option for the UK to be part of that? Following through with brexit will deny us that opportunity.

On your point 2, we already trade with these nations and send out trade missions to strike deals, without 'interference' or 'restriction' from the EU.

We trade with non EU countries yes, but we don't have trade deals with them because the EU prevents us from doing so, and insists upon us charging import tariffs.

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

On point 2, China, the US and many other countries with whom the EU does not have trade agreements have indicated they wish to do so with us as soon as possible.

The trouble I can see is that between the US and China combined they are massive compared to the Uk. Yes we want to sell to them but we need to remember they want to sell to us.

They have far more to sell to us and we don't want to buy more than we sell. How will we stop this from happening when we create our trade deals?

[loafer123]

SilverSixer said:

You simply need to look in my second post of this little sub thread to see what I was saying, but clearly you didn't want to give any thought to that. I was saying that the leave vote has precipitated a situation in which a break up of the entire EU has become more likely and gave reasons, and should that happen the consequences would be overall negative for us and all our EU partners. This is a real risk which the leave vote has invited upon us.

On your point 1, well if that happens wouldn't you like an option for the UK to be part of that? Following through with brexit will deny us that opportunity.

On your point 2, we already trade with these nations and send out trade missions to strike deals, without 'interference' or 'restriction' from the EU.

Your reasoning that us leaving precipitates a break up is, in my view, wrong. It is a well known fact that our relationship with the EU was flawed as we didn't see it in the same way as most other countries. For us it was a Free Trade Area, for them an every closer political and fiscal union. Nothing wrong with that, of course. My point is that, with us gone, the interests of the remaining 27 are more closely aligned and therefore they can adapt and reshape the EU and it's aims to suit them.

On point 2, we do already trade with those countries. Indeed I do personally. The issue is that Trade Agreements facilitate more trade and more economic activity and the EU has been woeful in achieving these because it has to rationalise and accommodate the competing interests of 28 countries, all with vested interests. Outside the EU, our negotiations will be simpler and quicker as we only have to reconcile our interests with the other country. We are, of course, a G7 nation, and more than attractive enough for countries to be highly incentivised to want to do deals with us, too.

[Dr Jekyll]

Ghibli said:

The trouble I can see is that between the US and China combined they are massive compared to the Uk. Yes we want to sell to them but we need to remember they want to sell to us.

They have far more to sell to us and we don't want to buy more than we sell. How will we stop this from happening when we create our trade deals?

We don't, how do we stop it happening now? They also have for more people to buy stuff from us than we have to buy from them, it really isn't an issue.

[anonymous-user]

sidicks said:

SilverSixer said:

Interesting economic theory that we'll get a better price as a single buyer than as part of a consortium placing a much bigger order.

It appears as though you don't understand EU tariffs either?

Or the role buyers within business's fulfil.

Sugar is a very large crop product in the UK, approx. half the UK sugar consumption is sourced from UK Sugar produced by British grown sugar beet.

[anonymous-user]

Dr Jekyll said:

Ghibli said:

The trouble I can see is that between the US and China combined they are massive compared to the Uk. Yes we want to sell to them but we need to remember they want to sell to us.

They have far more to sell to us and we don't want to buy more than we sell. How will we stop this from happening when we create our trade deals?

We don't, how do we stop it happening now? They also have for more people to buy stuff from us than we have to buy from them, it really isn't an issue.

I was under the impression it was tariffs. You are welcome to tell me why we have tariffs and how trade deals work.

[Dr Jekyll]

Ghibli said:

I was under the impression it was tariffs. You are welcome to tell me why we have tariffs and how trade deals work.

Tariffs tend to reduce what we import, they don't prevent imports exceeding exports, remember both sides generally charge tariffs. Trade deals are simply an agreement on what tariff to charge, which may mean agreeing zero. Not that a trade deficit with a particular country is the slightest problem in itself. If they produce lots of stuff we want to buy we benefit from buying it cheaply irrespective of whether our export go there or somewhere else.

[loafer123]

Ghibli said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Ghibli said:

The trouble I can see is that between the US and China combined they are massive compared to the Uk. Yes we want to sell to them but we need to remember they want to sell to us.

They have far more to sell to us and we don't want to buy more than we sell. How will we stop this from happening when we create our trade deals?

We don't, how do we stop it happening now? They also have for more people to buy stuff from us than we have to buy from them, it really isn't an issue.

I was under the impression it was tariffs. You are welcome to tell me why we have tariffs and how trade deals work.

If I may, I'll give a quick answer;

Trade Agreements can enable both parties to gain, so we might get looser regulatory restrictions on selling services into China whilst they get the ability to import plastic toys into the UK tariff free.

We get cheaper products that we don't make anyway, whilst getting access to a huge and growing market for some of our key industries.

It is much tougher for the EU, as Hungary, for example, might have cheap enough labour to make plastic toys economically, and therefore want to keep import tariffs on them, but as a result, we have restrictions on our ability to sell services into China.

[anonymous-user]

Dr Jekyll said:

Tariffs tend to reduce what we import, they don't prevent imports exceeding exports, remember both sides generally charge tariffs. Trade deals are simply an agreement on what tariff to charge, which may mean agreeing zero. Not that a trade deficit with a particular country is the slightest problem in itself. If they produce lots of stuff we want to buy we benefit from buying it cheaply irrespective of whether our export go there or somewhere else.

Ok let's say we have a deal between the two of us.

I want to sell you 1000 units and you want to sell me 100

A good deal for me, how is it for you?

[Ridgemont]

So the rowing back continues:

Back in April Mr Carney and chums saw fit to slash forecast growth in Q2 due to uncertainty:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article...

"Forecasts in the report were based on a vote to remain in the EU, but showed that uncertainty ahead of next month's referendum was expected to see gross domestic product growth slow to 0.3 per cent in the second quarter from 0.4 per cent in the first three months of 2016 - which in turn was down from 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year."

Today the ONS confirmed growth in Q2 as 0.6% with 80% of data in..

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-37...

Apparently the Brexit slowdown will now be in Q3/4 or... Not.
I'm sure that if this continues, and the brexipocalypse continues to occur at some point +1qtr removed from whatever date it currently is, there will eventually be a wave of contrite 'dreadfully sorry it appears I was talking absolute horlicks' .... But I'm not going to hold my breath...

[Dr Jekyll]

Ghibli said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Tariffs tend to reduce what we import, they don't prevent imports exceeding exports, remember both sides generally charge tariffs. Trade deals are simply an agreement on what tariff to charge, which may mean agreeing zero. Not that a trade deficit with a particular country is the slightest problem in itself. If they produce lots of stuff we want to buy we benefit from buying it cheaply irrespective of whether our export go there or somewhere else.

Ok let's say we have a deal between the two of us.

I want to sell you 1000 units and you want to sell me 100

A good deal for me, how is it for you?

It depends, if I'm happy with the prices for both transactions it's a good deal for me and if it isn't it won't happen. I buy lots of units from Amazon and they don't buy anything at all from me, from I still reckon I'm getting a good deal.