The economic consequences of Brexit

[RYH64E]

It's worth remembering that we haven't left yet, we haven't even begun to leave and there's no proposal as to what our post-Brexit relationship with the EU will be. It's a bit early to draw any conclusions about the economic consequences of Brexit, this will play out over the next few years.

[anonymous-user]

donald reminds me in some ways of an aunt I used to have.

When she explained things badly, forgot what she said two minutes previously and contradicted herself, she got angry too, and blamed everyone else for not being able to understand her. All the while claiming to be cleverer than everyone else.

I learned a long time ago that if you can't explain something clearly and succinctly, you probably don't understand it. Irrespective of how angry you get.

[powerstroke]

RYH64E said:

It's worth remembering that we haven't left yet, we haven't even begun to leave and there's no proposal as to what our post-Brexit relationship with the EU will be. It's a bit early to draw any conclusions about the economic consequences of Brexit, this will play out over the next few years.

I dont really care, there is a big world out there the EU is just another possible trading partner not the be all and end all
We don't need to kiss their arses we really don't , why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree, its not there companys want to sell us trucks vans and cars , heavy and light equipment etc etc,,,
carrot and stick!! we have a carrot ...

Edited by powerstroke on Monday 29th August 22:16

[Digga]

powerstroke said:

why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree...

Because that is the mindset aboard the gravy train. Anyone with a vested interest knows which side their bread is buttered and will fight, tooth and nail, to maintain the status quo, even if they do not necessarily know whether it is in the best economic interests for the long term.

That's the clever thing about dependence culture. The more non-jobs, gold-plated pensions and grants you dish out, the more supporters you buy.

[ATG]

don4l said:

I am absolutely astonished by the fact that so many of you are so willing to display your economic illiteracy on a public forum.

dear god checks mattress

Did I miss a parrot?

[Burwood]

ATG said:

don4l said:

I am absolutely astonished by the fact that so many of you are so willing to display your economic illiteracy on a public forum.

dear god checks mattress

Did I miss a parrot?

It's more a case of Don4 making point based on the fx on one side and everyone else taking a view the base currency is 'the other side'. i.e you are at cross purposes. Typically the buyer pays in the sellers base currency. I buy from spain i pay EUR or maybe USD, never GBP. They buy from me, they pay GBP or EUR if i am happy to take it. More the point guys, both parties ideally would love to match the revs/expenses in the same currency to limit exposure. If I am taking in revenue in EUR then i will naturally try and find a supplier who has a Euro base currency, more so if this bit hit takes place.

Big business was already lost USD/Eur tanked from 1.40 to 1.10 over the last 2.5 years. It is not all about brexit. A lot of stuff X china is in USD so you can imagine those purchases are a LOT more expensive in EUR. Europe has closed the price gap on china in many areas. All due to FX.

[catso]

don4l said:

I get paid in Sterling. I invoice in Sterling.

My European customers pay in Euros.

They need fewer Euros to buy stuff from me than they needed before the 24th of June.


I can make more profit, or I can try to increase sales.

I am absolutely astonished by the fact that so many of you are so willing to display your economic illiteracy on a public forum.

Have you all been sending each other private e-mails that say "Let's pretend to be monumentally thick just to wind don4l up"?

Yet some are saying that the weak pound is a bad thing for them, or at least they think it is as they could just be monumentally thick?

It may also be that because they are evil importers that they deserve to be punished as, obviously a weak pound is a good thing for all - after all you said it is and you do this for a living.

Or, perhaps you could try to see the other side of the discussion...

[ATG]

powerstroke said:

RYH64E said:

It's worth remembering that we haven't left yet, we haven't even begun to leave and there's no proposal as to what our post-Brexit relationship with the EU will be. It's a bit early to draw any conclusions about the economic consequences of Brexit, this will play out over the next few years.

I dont really care, there is a big world out there the EU is just another possible trading partner not the be all and end all
We don't need to kiss their arses we really don't , why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree, its not there companys want to sell us trucks vans and cars , heavy and light equipment etc etc,,,
carrot and stick!! we have a carrot ...

Edited by powerstroke on Monday 29th August 22:16

The "big world out there" is not unexplored territory. We're already trading with them. The EU is also a very big slice of the world beyond our borders. We've never been myopically focussed on EU trade while ignoring opportunities in the rest of the world. The "big world out there" narrative is a fairy story.

The single market is a customs union; that means for goods, and quite a lot of services, trading with an EU counterparty is no more difficult that someone in Arbroath trading with someone next door or in Carlisle, Bristol or anywhere else in the UK. It's a genuinely common market. Most trade deals give nothing like that degree of seamless, unbureaucratic access.

Once we leave the EU, the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union. Any other arrangement with the EU will make trading with EU companies less efficient. Some seem to think we will be able to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU that will offset any damage caused to our EU trade and leave us in a net better position. I haven't seen any evidence put forward to support that view. (And by evidence I mean a suggested, credible negotiating stance, or economic projections.) And in the meantime we have a high degree of uncertainty which is already damaging the economy and will continue to do so for the next few years until the outcome of the exit negotiations takes real shape.

As has been said many times, if you want to leave the EU for purely political reasons, fine. If it means so much to people that the small amount of decision making that currently takes place in Brussels (and it is fking tiny in the grand scheme of things) is repatriated to Westminster (home of the politicians we all love and respect), so be it. If you want to repatriate the tiny amount of public spending decisions from Brussels to Westminster, fine. But don't pretend this won't come with a fairly hefty price tag. Will our economy collapse? No, of course not. Will it grow more slowly and possibly shrink a bit in the short-term? Yes. Is this a great time to be risking some growth? No, it's a bloody awful time to be doing it. The public finances are still in a mess. We need to cut government spending, but we can only do that when private sector growth will offset the reduction in government spending, otherwise the economy will just shrink and the public finances will continue to deteriorate. The very last thing we needed right now is Brexit undermining growth. No wonder the first thing the new govt did was start loosening the fiscal position.

[RYH64E]

Digga said:

powerstroke said:

why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree...

Because that is the mindset aboard the gravy train. Anyone with a vested interest knows which side their bread is buttered and will fight, tooth and nail, to maintain the status quo, even if they do not necessarily know whether it is in the best economic interests for the long term.

That's the clever thing about dependence culture. The more non-jobs, gold-plated pensions and grants you dish out, the more supporters you buy.

Gravy train? What makes you think that manufacturing goods in the UK and selling to customers in the EU single market somehow constitutes being on a 'gravy train'?

[RYH64E]

powerstroke said:

I dont really care, there is a big world out there the EU is just another possible trading partner not the be all and end all
We don't need to kiss their arses we really don't , why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree, its not there companys want to sell us trucks vans and cars , heavy and light equipment etc etc,,,
carrot and stick!! we have a carrot ...

Edited by powerstroke on Monday 29th August 22:16

Easy to say for someone who's profile lists their profession as 'Service tech / mecanic'.

[AC43]

ATG said:

powerstroke said:

RYH64E said:

It's worth remembering that we haven't left yet, we haven't even begun to leave and there's no proposal as to what our post-Brexit relationship with the EU will be. It's a bit early to draw any conclusions about the economic consequences of Brexit, this will play out over the next few years.

I dont really care, there is a big world out there the EU is just another possible trading partner not the be all and end all
We don't need to kiss their arses we really don't , why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree, its not there companys want to sell us trucks vans and cars , heavy and light equipment etc etc,,,
carrot and stick!! we have a carrot ...

Edited by powerstroke on Monday 29th August 22:16

The "big world out there" is not unexplored territory. We're already trading with them. The EU is also a very big slice of the world beyond our borders. We've never been myopically focussed on EU trade while ignoring opportunities in the rest of the world. The "big world out there" narrative is a fairy story.

The single market is a customs union; that means for goods, and quite a lot of services, trading with an EU counterparty is no more difficult that someone in Arbroath trading with someone next door or in Carlisle, Bristol or anywhere else in the UK. It's a genuinely common market. Most trade deals give nothing like that degree of seamless, unbureaucratic access.

Once we leave the EU, the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union. Any other arrangement with the EU will make trading with EU companies less efficient. Some seem to think we will be able to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU that will offset any damage caused to our EU trade and leave us in a net better position. I haven't seen any evidence put forward to support that view. (And by evidence I mean a suggested, credible negotiating stance, or economic projections.) And in the meantime we have a high degree of uncertainty which is already damaging the economy and will continue to do so for the next few years until the outcome of the exit negotiations takes real shape.

As has been said many times, if you want to leave the EU for purely political reasons, fine. If it means so much to people that the small amount of decision making that currently takes place in Brussels (and it is fking tiny in the grand scheme of things) is repatriated to Westminster (home of the politicians we all love and respect), so be it. If you want to repatriate the tiny amount of public spending decisions from Brussels to Westminster, fine. But don't pretend this won't come with a fairly hefty price tag. Will our economy collapse? No, of course not. Will it grow more slowly and possibly shrink a bit in the short-term? Yes. Is this a great time to be risking some growth? No, it's a bloody awful time to be doing it. The public finances are still in a mess. We need to cut government spending, but we can only do that when private sector growth will offset the reduction in government spending, otherwise the economy will just shrink and the public finances will continue to deteriorate. The very last thing we needed right now is Brexit undermining growth. No wonder the first thing the new govt did was start loosening the fiscal position.

This x 1000.

[SilverSixer]

AC43 said:

ATG said:

powerstroke said:

RYH64E said:

It's worth remembering that we haven't left yet, we haven't even begun to leave and there's no proposal as to what our post-Brexit relationship with the EU will be. It's a bit early to draw any conclusions about the economic consequences of Brexit, this will play out over the next few years.

I dont really care, there is a big world out there the EU is just another possible trading partner not the be all and end all
We don't need to kiss their arses we really don't , why people go on about the single market as if it was some magic money tree, its not there companys want to sell us trucks vans and cars , heavy and light equipment etc etc,,,
carrot and stick!! we have a carrot ...

Edited by powerstroke on Monday 29th August 22:16

The "big world out there" is not unexplored territory. We're already trading with them. The EU is also a very big slice of the world beyond our borders. We've never been myopically focussed on EU trade while ignoring opportunities in the rest of the world. The "big world out there" narrative is a fairy story.

The single market is a customs union; that means for goods, and quite a lot of services, trading with an EU counterparty is no more difficult that someone in Arbroath trading with someone next door or in Carlisle, Bristol or anywhere else in the UK. It's a genuinely common market. Most trade deals give nothing like that degree of seamless, unbureaucratic access.

Once we leave the EU, the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union. Any other arrangement with the EU will make trading with EU companies less efficient. Some seem to think we will be able to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU that will offset any damage caused to our EU trade and leave us in a net better position. I haven't seen any evidence put forward to support that view. (And by evidence I mean a suggested, credible negotiating stance, or economic projections.) And in the meantime we have a high degree of uncertainty which is already damaging the economy and will continue to do so for the next few years until the outcome of the exit negotiations takes real shape.

As has been said many times, if you want to leave the EU for purely political reasons, fine. If it means so much to people that the small amount of decision making that currently takes place in Brussels (and it is fking tiny in the grand scheme of things) is repatriated to Westminster (home of the politicians we all love and respect), so be it. If you want to repatriate the tiny amount of public spending decisions from Brussels to Westminster, fine. But don't pretend this won't come with a fairly hefty price tag. Will our economy collapse? No, of course not. Will it grow more slowly and possibly shrink a bit in the short-term? Yes. Is this a great time to be risking some growth? No, it's a bloody awful time to be doing it. The public finances are still in a mess. We need to cut government spending, but we can only do that when private sector growth will offset the reduction in government spending, otherwise the economy will just shrink and the public finances will continue to deteriorate. The very last thing we needed right now is Brexit undermining growth. No wonder the first thing the new govt did was start loosening the fiscal position.

This x 1000.

x 100000. Brilliantly put.

[catso]

ATG said:

The single market is a customs union; that means for goods, and quite a lot of services, trading with an EU counterparty is no more difficult that someone in Arbroath trading with someone next door or in Carlisle, Bristol or anywhere else in the UK.

Actually it's easier than UK to UK trade in that there's no VAT to pay on commercial imports from (or to charge on exports to) the EU.

Previously EU imports had VAT (+ handling fees) to be paid in advance of customs releasing goods and woe betide anyone visiting an EU supplier who personally brought back commercial goods in their car even if they did declare them at Dover customs.

Obviously we don't know what the future arrangements will be but I hope this agreement remains.

[London424]

Here's an economic consequence...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/08/30/a...

Take it whichever way you'd like

[Digga]

Apple catchers spotted in Downing Street.

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

...the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union...

I'll wager thats exactly what you get; it's in everyones interest and the EU clowns will do what Germany tells them.

[CaptainSlow]

fblm said:

ATG said:

...the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union...

I'll wager thats exactly what you get; it's in everyones interest and the EU clowns will do what Germany tells them.

No thanks, means we can't negotiate our own deals outside the UK as the customs union has common external tariffs.

[anonymous-user]

CaptainSlow said:

fblm said:

ATG said:

...the best we can hope for in terms of access to EU markets is that we continue to be members of the EU customs union...

I'll wager thats exactly what you get; it's in everyones interest and the EU clowns will do what Germany tells them.

No thanks, means we can't negotiate our own deals outside the UK as the customs union has common external tariffs.

We'll see. You voted to leave the EU (wisely IMO), not the single market. It's hard to see how you get to keep unfettered financial services access without remaining in a customs/trade union unless your deal team can pull off a blinder.

[Fittster]

Derek Smith said:

So those who predicted exit would harm us are wrong as still being in the eu hasn't hurt us.

The thing seems to be that experts can be wrong. So everything is a guess. Those who guessed right still guessed and those who guessed wrong did so as well.

We won't know which 'side' is right until we exit. Even so, we have no idea what exit will mean. So no one knows.

?

You don't think depreciation of the pound has hurt us? Is more QE also a good thing?

[SilverSixer]

fblm said:

You voted to leave the EU (wisely IMO), not the single market.

No. We voted to leave the EU (unwisely IMO), leaving us no say in whether or not we remain in the single market as a consequence of leaving the EU. Which is the whole bloody problem with voting to leave, we had and still have no idea if we can remain in the single market. "Remain in the single market" was only on the ballot paper in the guise of one of the two referendum options - Remain.

ARGH.

We will only get a say on whether we "Leave the EU but remain in the single market" if we can pull off a successful national negotiation and if it then gets offered in a second referendum, and apparently that would be undemocratic.

ARGH.