The economic consequences of Brexit

[AC43]

Murph7355 said:

AC43 said:

...
Hopefully she can reign the, er, "more impulsive" David Davis.

I think he'll prove just fine.

If you're referring to his single market comments, I believe the full quote was caveated with something along the lines of "if we have to accept full free movement of people".

Yes, those comments - didn't get the context, just the soundbite

Murph7355 said:

What we're seeing at the moment is, IME, natural when a team is pulled together with a 30,000ft view of what needs to happen and they start to go through the details and options of preparation ahead of the sleeves up work needing to start.

I'm far happier with the approach thus far than if they'd simply triggered Article 50 and then run round like headless chickens. Many seem to think that's what should have happened. It would not have resulted in good outcomes.

Oh God yeah. Triggering A50 immediately would have been a disaster. We saw what the markets did in the immediate aftermath when DC had resigned and there hadn't been a leadership contest.

It would have been that x 10 for two years+

The markets hate uncertainty and price accordingly.....

[anonymous-user]

Ghibli said:

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTra...

Some figures for July. ^

Here is an article to go with the above link http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866


Next month will be interesting to see.

[Digga]

Ghibli said:

Here is an article to go with the above link http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315866


Next month will be interesting to see.

Very interesting.

I also saw this and wondered how it will affect negotiations and also, now I've seen your article above, how ti relates to the UK specifically: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37316827

[anonymous-user]

Digga said:

Very interesting.

I also saw this and wondered how it will affect negotiations and also, now I've seen your article above, how ti relates to the UK specifically: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37316827

I have not looked myself. As you say, it can be worked out between my first article and the one below. I'm not sure how negation will go, it seems to be global.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/...

[don4l]

Digga said:

Mr 'spoons gives his opinion on the matter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315860

That is an interesting story.

Witherspoons CEO said:

Common sense ... suggests that the worst approach for the UK is to insist on the necessity of a 'deal' - we don't need one and the fact that EU countries sell us twice as much as we sell them creates a hugely powerful negotiating position," he said in the trading statement.

I've been roundly mocked for saying the same thing on here.

This week we have heard Ian Duncan-Smith and Liam Fox say the same thing.

Poor old Guy Verhofstadt thinks that he will be leading the EU's negotiations with Britain. I think that it would be polite to phone him and explain that his services are surplus to requirements.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

Yes, those comments - didn't get the context, just the soundbite

David Davis said:

This government is looking at every option but the simple truth is that if a requirement of membership is giving up control of our borders, I think that makes it very improbable,

"it" is membership of the single market.

I don't really understand why he was chastised for it to be honest. Control of our borders has to be up there as the biggest priority I would think, bearing in mind the undercurrents during the referendum. And it starts to pencil in some lines with the EU for when negotiations start without being definitive about anything (a key "if" and a key "improbable").

Chastising him for it might suggest we're prepared to relinquish control to gain access....which to me does not toe the "Brexit means Brexit" mantra, and I suspect to a lot of others too. And in itself I'd argue it's more damaging to our negotiating position.

My suspicion is that they probably agreed to give nothing away at such an early stage and it's that which he's been wrapped for. But the media again doesn't tell us the whys and wherefores and only paints the picture it wants to. As it has all the way through this topic, being deliberately divisive.

[Fittster]

don4l said:

Digga said:

Mr 'spoons gives his opinion on the matter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315860

That is an interesting story.

Witherspoons CEO said:

Common sense ... suggests that the worst approach for the UK is to insist on the necessity of a 'deal' - we don't need one and the fact that EU countries sell us twice as much as we sell them creates a hugely powerful negotiating position," he said in the trading statement.

Other business don't share his view about Brexit.

Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair

O'Leary has no truck with the Brexiteers' notion that they can do a deal that maintains full European market access and without free movement of people.

"These halfwit fe***rs," he says, naming UK cabinet members "will come back with their tail between their legs next year.

"Those who were talking about 'taking back control' will find they've got no fe****g control whatsoever.

"Don't let me get started on Brexit," he laughs.

[powerstroke]

Fittster said:

Other business don't share his view about Brexit.

Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair

O'Leary has no truck with the Brexiteers' notion that they can do a deal that maintains full European market access and without free movement of people.

"These halfwit fe***rs," he says, naming UK cabinet members "will come back with their tail between their legs next year.

"Those who were talking about 'taking back control' will find they've got no fe****g control whatsoever.

"Don't let me get started on Brexit," he laughs.

Um is he Brittish? a UK company ??? Ummm!!!!!

[Derek Smith]

sanf said:

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides), and was a little surprised how down I felt after the vote to leave. But over the last month or so I've moved into the more positive camp - it's happened, now we've got to make it work.

Sorry to cut an excellent post but I wanted to say that the first para defects my view perfectly. If we are going to leave then it must work.

Thanks for all the technical detail.

[powerstroke]

don4l said:

Digga said:

Mr 'spoons gives his opinion on the matter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315860

That is an interesting story.

Witherspoons CEO said:

Common sense ... suggests that the worst approach for the UK is to insist on the necessity of a 'deal' - we don't need one and the fact that EU countries sell us twice as much as we sell them creates a hugely powerful negotiating position," he said in the trading statement.

I've been roundly mocked for saying the same thing on here.

This week we have heard Ian Duncan-Smith and Liam Fox say the same thing.

Poor old Guy Verhofstadt thinks that he will be leading the EU's negotiations with Britain. I think that it would be polite to phone him and explain that his services are surplus to requirements.

Ive been mocked by our faceless and mysterious EU fan boys , we don't know what they do for a living apart from one who Promotes EU green energy whatever that is ???
I find their tedious negativity funny .....
back to topic , I think we should be doing trade deals elsewhere first before the EU deal let the Euro car makers and the french farmers do our work, let free trade happen .....If EU want to play hardball , we just impose duty and taxes on EU goods,,,,

[///ajd]

Fox promotes UK business by saying its fat and lazy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37324491

That is sure to bring in foreign investment.

---

Having read the views above about boosting e.g. jag sales as BMWs get more expensive - maybe even forcing bmw production to the Uk - I would only suggest that the economies of scale of having efficient companies and integrated barrier free supply chains will still likely dominate factory investment decisions.

I'd be surprised if a 10% tariff would be enough for BMw to set up a 3er production line in cowley for that small fraction of overall sales. on the other hand a 10% tariff on the majority of Minis that get exported from the UK to the EU would be enough to swing a production investment to say austria.

These are challenging dynamics - Honda have already made their views pretty clear as to what works best for them.

[Fittster]

powerstroke said:

Fittster said:

Other business don't share his view about Brexit.

Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair

O'Leary has no truck with the Brexiteers' notion that they can do a deal that maintains full European market access and without free movement of people.

"These halfwit fe***rs," he says, naming UK cabinet members "will come back with their tail between their legs next year.

"Those who were talking about 'taking back control' will find they've got no fe****g control whatsoever.

"Don't let me get started on Brexit," he laughs.

Um is he Brittish? a UK company ??? Ummm!!!!!

So only UK companies are to operate in the UK?

[///ajd]

Fittster said:

powerstroke said:

Fittster said:

Other business don't share his view about Brexit.

Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair

O'Leary has no truck with the Brexiteers' notion that they can do a deal that maintains full European market access and without free movement of people.

"These halfwit fe***rs," he says, naming UK cabinet members "will come back with their tail between their legs next year.

"Those who were talking about 'taking back control' will find they've got no fe****g control whatsoever.

"Don't let me get started on Brexit," he laughs.

Um is he Brittish? a UK company ??? Ummm!!!!!

So only UK companies are to operate in the UK?

Revealing, isn't it?

O'Leary is a foreigner so you can ignore his views on the single market and FMOL

The FMOL and single market debate with EU partners is gong to be very interesting.

I wonder if the brexit team will try and find sympatheitc EU states that might want to help us due to their trade and work up some kind of fmol control / sm barrier free solution. Who would help us? Germany, France? What about the Poles? How do they feel about FMOL? Would they rather the migration from poland to the UK was curtailed to keep skills in their own country?

[Digga]

///ajd said:

O'Leary is a foreigner so you can ignore his views on the single market and FMOL

The FMOL and single market debate with EU partners is gong to be very interesting.

O'Leary is a penis. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure being pro-Brexit is likely a winner with the Wetherspoons breakfast club, but that bloke with say it's about anything to get some free PR for Ryanair. When you're running a cut to the bone operation, milking free column inches is a key part of the MO.

[///ajd]

Digga said:

///ajd said:

O'Leary is a foreigner so you can ignore his views on the single market and FMOL

The FMOL and single market debate with EU partners is gong to be very interesting.

O'Leary is a penis. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure being pro-Brexit is likely a winner with the Wetherspoons breakfast club, but that bloke with say it's about anything to get some free PR for Ryanair. When you're running a cut to the bone operation, milking free column inches is a key part of the MO.

He may be many things, but it seems likely these are just his views.

After all he is risking annoying 52% of his UK customers with his "ah brexit is st" comments - some are daft enough to boycott in such circumstances (see tunnocks).

To dismiss him on the grounds he's a "foreigner" (as ps did) suggests a little englander mentality.

[Ridgemont]

///ajd said:

He may be many things, but it seems likely these are just his views.

After all he is risking annoying 52% of his UK customers with his "ah brexit is st" comments - some are daft enough to boycott in such circumstances (see tunnocks).

To dismiss him on the grounds he's a "foreigner" (as ps did) suggests a little englander mentality.

Tunnocks. You do realise the SNP and Brexiters are fundamentally different beasts?

[///ajd]

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

He may be many things, but it seems likely these are just his views.

After all he is risking annoying 52% of his UK customers with his "ah brexit is st" comments - some are daft enough to boycott in such circumstances (see tunnocks).

To dismiss him on the grounds he's a "foreigner" (as ps did) suggests a little englander mentality.

Tunnocks. You do realise the SNP and Brexiters are fundamentally different beasts?

Not from my perspective - there are some key similarities between the SNP/UKIP and Yesers/Brexiteers.

Nationalism, blaming "them" (england/EU) for our woes, etc.

The "article 50 now" brigade are just as smart as "tunnocks hammer man".

[Murph7355]

Fittster said:

Other business don't share his view about Brexit.

Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair

O'Leary has no truck with the Brexiteers' notion that they can do a deal that maintains full European market access and without free movement of people.

"These halfwit fe***rs," he says, naming UK cabinet members "will come back with their tail between their legs next year.

"Those who were talking about 'taking back control' will find they've got no fe****g control whatsoever.

"Don't let me get started on Brexit," he laughs.

I'm more than happy to listen to contrary views, but he's a weapons grade tool.

It's all about the PR and especially extracting every last cent to him. Fair enough, it's what he's there to do. But shut the feck up with your politicking you bell end.

As for him leaving the UK, yes really. You'll really turn your back on all those flights from the UK to the sttiest airports in Europe won't you, you money grabbing knob jockey.

Regardless of what deal we come out with, any government offering a 100% levy on Ryan Air landing fees gets my vote until that gobste winds his neck in

[WinstonWolf]

///ajd said:

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

He may be many things, but it seems likely these are just his views.

After all he is risking annoying 52% of his UK customers with his "ah brexit is st" comments - some are daft enough to boycott in such circumstances (see tunnocks).

To dismiss him on the grounds he's a "foreigner" (as ps did) suggests a little englander mentality.

Tunnocks. You do realise the SNP and Brexiters are fundamentally different beasts?

Not from my perspective - there are some key similarities between the SNP/UKIP and Yesers/Brexiteers.

Nationalism, blaming "them" (england/EU) for our woes, etc.

The "article 50 now" brigade are just as smart as "tunnocks hammer man".

Stop being such a cock. If you want to know the meaning of prejudiced take a long hard look in the mirror.

You're blaming "them" for leaving your precious EU

[///ajd]

WinstonWolf said:

Stop being such a cock. If you want to know the meaning of prejudiced take a long hard look in the mirror.

You're blaming "them" for leaving your precious EU

The insult just proves I have a valid point.

You should relish winning your vote - sorry if the way it was done used SNP/Nationalist type techniques and that upsets you. The clear evidence is out there, no need to insult anyone for pointing it out.