The economic consequences of Brexit

[dandarez]

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

SELON said:

So economic consequences now are:
- pensions (even more) in the toilet

I had my first pension fund statement since Brexit through the post today.

My pension fund grew in value 11.5% over the last 12 months.

Your point being? Until your results come through in, probably 5 years time, the effect of exit won't be known. Even then it will just be an indicator.

My point being, my pension fund grew 11.5% in the last 12 months.

Seriously, it's just to illustrate what a load of cobblers the statement was.

I am well aware what my eventual pension pot is worth will be based on how the world looks when I retire, be that the UK or the far east.

I don't have the advantage of a final salary scheme where my pension is based on how many years I managed to stay in a job, which I assume as an ex copper is your position.

My own retirement pot has investments spread world wide, as any sensible long term investment is. I find it amusing that it's grown so much when according to the poster it should be "in the toilet".

I'm sorry if you regret your choice of employment.

My point, one that I'm surprised you missed is that as we've not left the EU yet then the effects of exit will not have come through.

No one can predict the future, merely make an educated guess. In the 70s I guessed that my chosen career would be hit if the Tories got in so I picked security over pay, took a 30% cut in net pay.

I guessed correctly. I'm benefiting from being right, but it was a big decision. I traded high pay for a decent pension. It was a choice open to most.

Exactly the same as if we had voted Remain.
Nobody can predict the future, nobody knows where we will be in 5 years times or longer.
So it's irrelevant.

Except at the moment things are looking rosy, which, at the time of voting, we were emphatically lectured by Remainians that it would be downhill 'immediately' - ie: within months, if not days, if a vote was for Brexit.

[davepoth]

dandarez said:

Except at the moment things are looking rosy, which, at the time of voting, we were emphatically lectured by Remainians that it would be downhill 'immediately' - ie: within months, if not days, if a vote was for Brexit.

Precisely. We were warned of two economic impacts by "Remain" - a short term shock, and a longer term "sag".

It's now reasonably conclusive that the economic shock was almost entirely down to the markets betting the wrong way, and since then everything's been ticking along quite nicely since nothing fundamental has changed.

The longer term impact is harder to discern, and it will take years to become apparent.

[anonymous-user]

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

Derek Smith said:

jsf said:

SELON said:

So economic consequences now are:
- pensions (even more) in the toilet

I had my first pension fund statement since Brexit through the post today.

My pension fund grew in value 11.5% over the last 12 months.

Your point being? Until your results come through in, probably 5 years time, the effect of exit won't be known. Even then it will just be an indicator.

My point being, my pension fund grew 11.5% in the last 12 months.

Seriously, it's just to illustrate what a load of cobblers the statement was.

I am well aware what my eventual pension pot is worth will be based on how the world looks when I retire, be that the UK or the far east.

I don't have the advantage of a final salary scheme where my pension is based on how many years I managed to stay in a job, which I assume as an ex copper is your position.

My own retirement pot has investments spread world wide, as any sensible long term investment is. I find it amusing that it's grown so much when according to the poster it should be "in the toilet".

I'm sorry if you regret your choice of employment.

My point, one that I'm surprised you missed is that as we've not left the EU yet then the effects of exit will not have come through.

No one can predict the future, merely make an educated guess. In the 70s I guessed that my chosen career would be hit if the Tories got in so I picked security over pay, took a 30% cut in net pay.

I guessed correctly. I'm benefiting from being right, but it was a big decision. I traded high pay for a decent pension. It was a choice open to most.

Where in what I wrote do I say I regret my choice of employment?

[powerstroke]

money or quality of life what is the most important thing ????

[ATG]

WinstonWolf said:

Stop being such a cock. If you want to know the meaning of prejudiced take a long hard look in the mirror.

You're blaming "them" for leaving your precious EU

Eh? He was describing how he thought a chunk of people thought. You might wish to think he was wrong, but the strategists behind the official leave campaign agree with him, so ...

[WinstonWolf]

ATG said:

WinstonWolf said:

Stop being such a cock. If you want to know the meaning of prejudiced take a long hard look in the mirror.

You're blaming "them" for leaving your precious EU

Eh? He was describing how he thought a chunk of people thought. You might wish to think he was wrong, but the strategists behind the official leave campaign agree with him, so ...

Ah yes, the strategists who got it catastrophically wrong. One thing we've learned is the so called experts can't predict the future...

[Derek Smith]

dandarez said:

Exactly the same as if we had voted Remain.
Nobody can predict the future, nobody knows where we will be in 5 years times or longer.
So it's irrelevant.

Except at the moment things are looking rosy, which, at the time of voting, we were emphatically lectured by Remainians that it would be downhill 'immediately' - ie: within months, if not days, if a vote was for Brexit.

Well let's look at the current rosy 'things'.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/why-repor...

It puts the indicators into context. There was concern over the vote leading up to the date, so the time span should be somewhat longer.

[ATG]

WinstonWolf said:

ATG said:

WinstonWolf said:

Stop being such a cock. If you want to know the meaning of prejudiced take a long hard look in the mirror.

You're blaming "them" for leaving your precious EU

Eh? He was describing how he thought a chunk of people thought. You might wish to think he was wrong, but the strategists behind the official leave campaign agree with him, so ...

Ah yes, the strategists who got it catastrophically wrong. One thing we've learned is the so called experts can't predict the future...

Try reading it again. The strategists who led the LEAVE campaign.

[AC43]

///ajd said:

Not from my perspective - there are some key similarities between the SNP/UKIP and Yesers/Brexiteers.

Nationalism, blaming "them" (england/EU) for our woes, etc.

The "article 50 now" brigade are just as smart as "tunnocks hammer man".

Swap "Teeside" for "Clydeside" and there are plenty of similarities in my book - veiled racism, economic impotence, the vague promise of "something better", sticking it to "The Man" in London, persecution of Remain voters.

Tactics and themes sound very similar to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37306646

EDIT; for clarity's sake please note that I certainly do no view all Brexit voters as being in this camp! I just think it's a bit rich that Boris from Eaton and his rich ex-banker pal, Farage, promise all manner of st to this particular demographic. Out of work for four generations with no end in sight along come the London politicians (how ironic) and offer them a "solution".

All that will happen is that the "solution" will make sod-all difference to the unemployed on Teeside and they'll see through the fact that they've transferred power from the "evil EU elite" to the "evil/London/Tory elite" to no effect.

Roll on the hard right......

Edited by AC43 on Monday 12th September 12:46

[anonymous-user]

AC43 said:

Swap "Teeside" for "Clydeside" and there are plenty of similarities in my book - veiled racism, economic impotence, the vague promise of "something better", sticking it to "The Man" in London, persecution of Remain voters.

Tactics and themes sound very similar to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37306646

EDIT; for clarity's sake please note that I certainly do no view all Brexit voters as being in this camp! I just think it's a bit rich that Boris from Eaton and his rich ex-banker pal, Farage, promise all manner of st to this particular demographic. Out of work for four generations with no end in sight along come the London politicians (how ironic) and offer them a "solution".

All that will happen is that the "solution" will make sod-all difference to the unemployed on Teeside and they'll see through the fact that they've transferred power from the "evil EU elite" to the "evil/London/Tory elite" to no effect.

Roll on the hard right......

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 12th September 12:46

It was interesting the way that people thought they were 'sticking fingers up to the establishment' and 'striking one for the common man/woman'

I mean Boris's main method of communication with the electorate in the immediate aftermath of the vote was Telegraph columns.

And Lord Bamford is one of the largest donors to the Tory Party.

[anonymous-user]

August mortgage lending highest since 2007.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/sep/22/mort...

[Digga]

cookie118 said:

It was interesting the way that people thought they were 'sticking fingers up to the establishment' and 'striking one for the common man/woman'

...And Lord Bamford is one of the largest donors to the Tory Party.

He might well be, and well connected in other means too, but his opinion on Brexit ran counter to the pro-EU establishment in both Westminster, the media and also the Tory party, as well as being counter to the scaremongering.

Anyway... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37428764

[anonymous-user]

I wouldn't be so sure that the media was anti-Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/sep/20/pro-...

The detailed study of 2,378 articles for the report, UK press coverage of the EU Referendum, found 41% were pro-Leave, while 27% were pro-Remain.

[anonymous-user]

Also worth posting this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37433659
"Small businesses in negative mood for first time in four years"

Before the referendum-despite the lack of evidence to support it and much evidence against it-it was constantly parroted that SME's would do well from Brexit.

A viewpoint apparently not shared by SME's at the moment!!

[paulrockliffe]

cookie118 said:

I wouldn't be so sure that the media was anti-Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/sep/20/pro-...

The detailed study of 2,378 articles for the report, UK press coverage of the EU Referendum, found 41% were pro-Leave, while 27% were pro-Remain.

How many pro-brexit news items did the BBC run? in the period they must have run up thousands of articles on the subject just on their own. Your stats don't mean anything, but maybe start looking forwards rather than backwards?

[///ajd]

paulrockliffe said:

How many pro-brexit news items did the BBC run? in the period they must have run up thousands of articles on the subject just on their own. Your stats don't mean anything, but maybe start looking forwards rather than backwards?

How much anti-EU and anti-immigration bile has the dw et al spouted over the last 15 years?

It is has been so unrelenting its become the accepted norm for some.

[paulrockliffe]

///ajd said:

paulrockliffe said:

How many pro-brexit news items did the BBC run? in the period they must have run up thousands of articles on the subject just on their own. Your stats don't mean anything, but maybe start looking forwards rather than backwards?

How much anti-EU and anti-immigration bile has the dw et al spouted over the last 15 years?

It is has been so unrelenting its become the accepted norm for some.

No idea? Is it more or less than the BBC? What is "the dw"? I've never heard of it, so it's unlikely to rival the BBC for output, but happy to be educated.

I have to say that given the BBC have radio based news across 5 channels every hour, including hour long programmes three times a day on one of them and 12ish hours a day on 5-Live, News on the TV for 3 hours a day plus a 24 hour news channel and all broadcast on terrestrial as well as cable, Sky and iPlayer I'm sceptical that there's an equivalent level of output from any other source, or even a combination of sources.

I'm sure you'll have some research comparing the impact of print media to the impact of broadcast media somewhere though?

[BMRuss]

At the end of the day (nearly) the vote was all about immigration, that was the overriding factor, I think the EU may well just shoot itself in the foot if they don't agree to freely trade with us.

Would that perhaps spell trouble for the poorer countries in the EU that are net beneficiaries of EU contributions? Will the poorer ones need bailouts from Germany? If Germany lose our EU contributions and trade too, will that be a positive thing for them? Isnt youth unemployment really quite high in some EU countries?

Would those countries not trading freely with us have a positive impact on that? what about the French as they seem second in command, would they be better off without our business than we would without theirs? Same for the Italians at number 3 (although I noticed Renzi didn't attend a press conference with Merkel and Hollande) would us not buying their cars and wine be good for their already fragile economy? perhaps we would suffer more without their business collectively?

Would very much like to be a fly on the wall in the negotiations.

[davepoth]

paulrockliffe said:

No idea? Is it more or less than the BBC? What is "the dw"? I've never heard of it, so it's unlikely to rival the BBC for output, but happy to be educated.

Deutsche Welle, or rather more likely the Daily Wail.

[Dr Jekyll]

BMRuss said:

At the end of the day (nearly) the vote was all about immigration, that was the overriding factor,

No it wasn't.