The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
///ajd said:
...
"Lets give the NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" is pretty unequivocal.
Indeed. But the last time I looked that wasn't written on a "big-red-lie-bus", nor was it being proposed by people who had any power to implement it. Pedantry cuts all ways. Including all the absolute nonsense spouted by the Remain side during campaigning. "Lets give the NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" is pretty unequivocal.
Still, if that's all people really have to moan about for the next 40yrs, we won't be doing too badly
Ridgemont said:
Nobody currently knows which way the gov is planning to go re EEA or WTO with bells. As a result we're pretty much as we were 3 months ago...
Can they really do EEA though, surely the pro-Brexit lobby won't tolerate the concessions.Either way we'll have to see what happens to the economy after article 50 is triggered and the UK firms up it's arrangements. At the moment there still seems to be an undue weight behind the UK remaining in one way or another.
JawKnee said:
Has this been done yet?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/brexit-...
More than a bit concerning if the government f
k this one up.
On any other thread you would be joyous fhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/brexit-...
More than a bit concerning if the government f
k this one up.king capitist pigs you would say tax them till the pips squeekhope they f
k of back to the great satan !!!!!!Ah, this thread is like Groundhog Day, I e been away for a couple weeks and see it's still the same old stuff.
Anyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
Anyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
Ridgemont said:
Apparently I'm going to be £4300 worse off according to George Osborne. So tell us how leave were the only party pulling bks out of thin air?
By quitting the next day, Cameron kicked that can down the road. If Brexit happens we will all be worse off . £4300 sounds realistic. This in turn will reduce revenues so the NHS will be lucky to maintain funding, let alone get the 350m a week, which a decisive number of idiots actually believed & voted for. ks out of thin air?Jimboka said:
By quitting the next day, Cameron kicked that can down the road. If Brexit happens we will all be worse off . £4300 sounds realistic. This in turn will reduce revenues so the NHS will be lucky to maintain funding, let alone get the 350m a week, which a decisive number of idiots actually believed & voted for.
Indeed, and it was a prediction to 2030, not overnight. It was too precise, should have been something like £3-5000k worse off as a range, but then they knew some pedantic type would say "ah you can't even predict accurately".....
Its already partly reflected in the revised GDP growth figures this year and next. We were on track for 2+% growth in 2016.
Cue cries of global downturn....there'll always be an excuse.
Property valuers drop Brexit clauses from most contracts as markets steady....
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-proper...
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-proper...
Jimboka said:
Ridgemont said:
Apparently I'm going to be £4300 worse off according to George Osborne. So tell us how leave were the only party pulling bks out of thin air?
By quitting the next day, Cameron kicked that can down the road. If Brexit happens we will all be worse off . £4300 sounds realistic. This in turn will reduce revenues so the NHS will be lucky to maintain funding, let alone get the 350m a week, which a decisive number of idiots actually believed & voted for. ks out of thin air?
steveatesh said:
Ah, this thread is like Groundhog Day, I e been away for a couple weeks and see it's still the same old stuff.
Anyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
An extremely interesting and relevant post, as opposed to the re-heated, leftover bAnyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
ks from others on here. I am very interested to see how this particular piece of the Brexit jigsaw works out; its key for our economy and hinges on pretty much the crux of the remain propaganda.Digga said:
An extremely interesting and relevant post, as opposed to the re-heated, leftover bks from others on here. I am very interested to see how this particular piece of the Brexit jigsaw works out; its key for our economy and hinges on pretty much the crux of the remain propaganda.
The following is an interesting read, from my understanding it explains why there is uncertainty for third parties.ks from others on here. I am very interested to see how this particular piece of the Brexit jigsaw works out; its key for our economy and hinges on pretty much the crux of the remain propaganda.http://www.shlegal.com/docs/default-source/news-in...
Ghibli said:
Digga said:
An extremely interesting and relevant post, as opposed to the re-heated, leftover bks from others on here. I am very interested to see how this particular piece of the Brexit jigsaw works out; its key for our economy and hinges on pretty much the crux of the remain propaganda.
The following is an interesting read, from my understanding it explains why there is uncertainty for third parties.ks from others on here. I am very interested to see how this particular piece of the Brexit jigsaw works out; its key for our economy and hinges on pretty much the crux of the remain propaganda.http://www.shlegal.com/docs/default-source/news-in...
steveatesh said:
...
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, ...
I wouldn't even risk a tenner on a bet to support when MIFID II will go live Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, ...
There's merit in much of the post, but still some risk for the financial markets with Brexit. But then there always, always has been. Brexit or not. And to me it was not material in my vote (despite, or maybe because of (!), me having worked in the sector for 20yrs).
///ajd said:
Indeed, and it was a prediction to 2030, not overnight.
It was too precise, should have been something like £3-5000k worse off as a range, but then they knew some pedantic type would say "ah you can't even predict accurately".....
Its already partly reflected in the revised GDP growth figures this year and next. We were on track for 2+% growth in 2016.
Cue cries of global downturn....there'll always be an excuse.
It's a bullsIt was too precise, should have been something like £3-5000k worse off as a range, but then they knew some pedantic type would say "ah you can't even predict accurately".....
Its already partly reflected in the revised GDP growth figures this year and next. We were on track for 2+% growth in 2016.
Cue cries of global downturn....there'll always be an excuse.
t figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.You might as well say we'd all have received free Ferraris if we'd <delete as appropriate - stayed/left>.
To try and put any degree of accuracy to it just makes the bulls
t smell worse. But some people evidently like the smell of some kinds of st Murph7355 said:
It's a bullst figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.
That makes no sense. Neither you nor I can prove that either of the two following forecasts is right or wrong: (1) tomorrow it will rain in London (2) tomorrow a cow will check in at the Dorchester. The lack of proof of eithet doesn't stop one of them being patently absurd and the other tenable.t figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.ATG said:
Murph7355 said:
It's a bullst figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.
That makes no sense. Neither you nor I can prove that either of the two following forecasts is right or wrong: (1) tomorrow it will rain in London (2) tomorrow a cow will check in at the Dorchester. The lack of proof of eithet doesn't stop one of them being patently absurd and the other tenable.t figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.ATG said:
Murph7355 said:
It's a bullst figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.
That makes no sense. Neither you nor I can prove that either of the two following forecasts is right or wrong: (1) tomorrow it will rain in London (2) tomorrow a cow will check in at the Dorchester. The lack of proof of eithet doesn't stop one of them being patently absurd and the other tenable.t figure just like all the figures spouted from both sides. Why? Because there is 100% no way it can ever be proved or disproved.steveatesh said:
Ah, this thread is like Groundhog Day, I e been away for a couple weeks and see it's still the same old stuff.
Anyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
I made this point a couple of weeks ago - although much less eloquently.Anyway, this comment appeared on Dr Norths site today, in response to ana reticle on passporting. I know nothing about pas sporting, but some in here may and wondered if you can comment on what this person (pen name ConservativeSupport) is saying. If he's right the passporting doesn't appear to be that important?
"Richard, Your Flexcit strategy is coherent and based on the damage that would be done by immediate disconnection in many industries but let's just focus on banking as you do in this article.
Why are you writing about the potential loss of Passporting when MiFID II, which will go live in early 2018, well before we've left the EU, gives automatic Passporting to non EU, Non EEA countries with 'equivalent regulatory regimes'. It is not credible that ESME would not grant this status to the UK given that our regulatory regime at that time will be not just 'equivalent' but identical. Please explain therefore how any scenario exists where we lose Passporting rights - hard /soft/ whatever Brexit we choose.
Furthermore how many compliance officers have you spoken to to ascertain the real value of Passporting. Everyone I speak to with experience of holding passports for their financial services firms tells me that Passporting is complete red herring and waste of time - that it gives you nothing because all the European jurisdictions require local certification under their own regulatory regimes to operate whether or not you have an EU passport. Can you give me some examples of Passporting rights that actually work without secondary back up from local authorisations, permits or certification.
Finally, given London accounts for 75% of Europe's capital raising, and that EU firms Passporting into London outnumber those Passporting out by a factor of 8:5, if the EU elite play hardball all they will achieve is further to deprive their own businesses of capital, worsening their own plight at a desperate time for their economies and accelerating their own demise.
I'm sure you're right about the complexities but all complexities can be resolved, not least by a local notice of continuation, which can be contractual if not governmental, particularly if all parties face material pain from not resolving them. Is it possible you have underestimated the agility and creativity of businesses and industries under pressure?"
Unfortunately, it didn't calm down our resident worrier.
It seems that once you convince yourself that Brexit is a bad thing, no amount of reality will affect your thinking.
Very odd.
I was in Calais yesterday. The coach stopped at a supermarket which mainly caters for British tourists. Only one person (out of 32) bought anything. The weaker Pound meant that everything was as expensive, or more so, than here.
Good news for the UK.
don4l said:
I made this point a couple of weeks ago - although much less eloquently.
Unfortunately, it didn't calm down our resident worrier.
It seems that once you convince yourself that Brexit is a bad thing, no amount of reality will affect your thinking.
.
I'm afraid confirmation bias is strong in that one!Unfortunately, it didn't calm down our resident worrier.
It seems that once you convince yourself that Brexit is a bad thing, no amount of reality will affect your thinking.
.
don4l said:
I was in Calais yesterday. The coach stopped at a supermarket which mainly caters for British tourists. Only one person (out of 32) bought anything. The weaker Pound meant that everything was as expensive, or more so, than here.
Good news for the UK.
No doubt you'll be voting for Comrade Corbyn next election then. Good news for the UK.
He's promised to spend hundreds of billions of pounds on all sorts of things. So he will either be printing the money to do so, or borrowing it. Either way the pound should rocket through the floor and keep going until it pops out somewhere on the date line south east of New Zealand.
Cheap stuff here. Great for exports.
A lefty's dream.
Just go long on wheel barrow futures.
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