The economic consequences of Brexit

[Burwood]

So much micro analysis going on when in my view it is oh so simple. Take banking for example. No one wants to move to Germany- it's now unsafe as is France and Belgium. The Germans want us to keep buying their cars. We will get a great Brexit deal and those that cause waves will find a world of hurt. Good luck to JPM et al running their banks without expats who will not move to these st hole countries. Good luck to Germany when there is a huge back lash and we significantly reduce the numbers of car purchases. Just my view

[PRTVR]

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

or the UK government, there has never been a better or more apt time to invest in decent infrastructure projects. It's not only my view, but that echoed by a number of economists. Borrowing is cheap and there are many geographic areas where, in particular, enhanced transport would bring greater connectivity and efficiency which could, in and of itself, promote economic activity and productivity.

100% agree.
But not HS2.

Semantics. I think it is unarguable that HS2 will increase capacity and, overall, it is (at least) a step in the right direction in that regard. There's lots of other clever stuff they could add; e.g. why am I driving to Kent tomorrow morning, just to put my car on a train when I could be doing that in the Midlands and not cluttering up the motorway network?

I always find t strange we are an island and fail to utilise the water surrounding us,maximum distance from the sea is about 70 miles, why not build more ports and tramp all the goods via the sea with only the last part of the journey via road, the ships would come in different sizes and speeds and utilise modern mooring techniques without the need for rope's, there is a report doing the rounds that we are going to need thousands of truck drivers over the next 10 years due to the number retiring, this would solve part of the problem.

[Digga]

For containerised freight, there are some very good road>rail terminals in the Midlands already, but for actual vehicles, HGV, PSV or private cars and vans, there's no way of loading them onto a train for onward travel to either port or Eurotunnel.

[PRTVR]

boxxob said:

PRTVR said:

I always find t strange we are an island and fail to utilise the water surrounding us,maximum distance from the sea is about 70 miles, why not build more ports and tramp all the goods via the sea with only the last part of the journey via road, the ships would come in different sizes and speeds and utilise modern mooring techniques without the need for rope's, there is a report doing the rounds that we are going to need thousands of truck drivers over the next 10 years due to the number retiring, this would solve part of the problem.

how is that going to be more efficient and punctual for the range of volumes and distances required? You add two extra loading/unloading steps, travel slowly by sea, and then link back to the road network and the population densities that the goods will need to go to?

Our road network is not going to get any better, our need for truck drivers will not go away, we either plan for a different future or we wait till it all falls apart.

[ATG]

walm said:

I think perhaps we are agreeing.
The consumer demand remains the same ..
...

I'm afraid we're not agreeing entirely. Consumer demand does NOT remain the same. It is reduced since consumers see higher prices. The short run effect of a devaluation is to harm consumers and help exporters.

[ATG]

Burwood said:

So much micro analysis going on when in my view it is oh so simple. Take banking for example. No one wants to move to Germany- it's now unsafe as is France and Belgium. The Germans want us to keep buying their cars. We will get a great Brexit deal and those that cause waves will find a world of hurt. Good luck to JPM et al running their banks without expats who will not move to these st hole countries. Good luck to Germany when there is a huge back lash and we significantly reduce the numbers of car purchases. Just my view

It's not "oh so simple", and to suggest that it is is simplistic. The real world is complex. We can't pretend otherwise.

[s2art]

ATG said:

I'm afraid we're not agreeing entirely. Consumer demand does NOT remain the same. It is reduced since consumers see higher prices. The short run effect of a devaluation is to harm consumers and help exporters.

That seems logical, but we are not observing that. Demand seems to be rising after the initial shock.

[walm]

s2art said:

ATG said:

I'm afraid we're not agreeing entirely. Consumer demand does NOT remain the same. It is reduced since consumers see higher prices. The short run effect of a devaluation is to harm consumers and help exporters.

That seems logical, but we are not observing that. Demand seems to be rising after the initial shock.

ATG is convinced that the higher prices will lead to a reduction in demand.
Forgetting, IMHO that there is EXTRA demand coming from consumers shifting WHERE THEY BUY THINGS (as Don pointed out ages ago with his ridiculous booze cruise experience).

It's far from clear whether the elasticity of demand is enough to offset that shift, from the perspective of a UK-based vendor.

Although yes, consumers are worse off.

http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/exchan...

[anonymous-user]

Trade tarriffs would be disastrous states jlr boss

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

[paul789]

cookie118 said:

Trade tarriffs would be disastrous states jlr boss

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

There's no way May will ignore warnings like this. She's too shrewd. She has a master plan. We'll have a bespoke deal.

[ATG]

s2art said:

ATG said:

I'm afraid we're not agreeing entirely. Consumer demand does NOT remain the same. It is reduced since consumers see higher prices. The short run effect of a devaluation is to harm consumers and help exporters.

That seems logical, but we are not observing that. Demand seems to be rising after the initial shock.

Yes, as with most economic arguments everything is caveated with "all else equal" and of course it never is. There are loads of other factors influencing consumer confidence too.

[powerstroke]

Im sick of the doom mongers WE are in a strong position on trade on hard goods, If they want to apply tarifs we can too !!! mind german french and italian industry will be our voice they won't want us punished even if the clowns in brussels think its a good ideal

[///ajd]

cookie118 said:

Trade tarriffs would be disastrous states jlr boss

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

It doesn't get much clearer than that.

And still we have some naive bravado "oh we'll impose tariffs back". Lets hope our negotiators are smarter than that, but worrying Fox doesn't appear to be.

Good picture of all those fantastic UK car products - 57% of UK built cars goto the EU.

[sanf]

paul789 said:

cookie118 said:

Trade tarriffs would be disastrous states jlr boss

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/br...

There's no way May will ignore warnings like this. She's too shrewd. She has a master plan. We'll have a bespoke deal.

This is another one of those really complex areas, where jostling for position seems to be fully on the go. Some of the car stats for the UK area really interesting, especially when compared to the export/Import numbers.

The UK is a big car market - so you have to wonder if any tariffs are imposed, what opportunity could be on offer to UK built cars, if the government needed to be creative - how could the UK market change??

The UK purchased 2.633 million new cars in 2015. Only Germany bought more @ 3.206 million. By the time Belgium is reached in 6th its 501,066 cars. The from 7th (Netherlands) to 27th (Cyprus) between all of them they purchased 2.846 million, from 8th-27th it's 2.397 million.

The top 10 cars sold in the UK represent 691,281 cars sold - of those 3 are made in the UK (Qashqai, Astra, Mini) - so 7 of the top 10 cars sold in the UK are imported. These 7 make up 530,688 units.

Based on the stats provided in the newspaper link above, the UK exports 502,647 cars to the EU. So total exports are less than the top 7 best selling imported cars.

If Brands are considered - Jaguar sold 23,954 cars in the UK, Landrover 66,574.
Audi; 166,709,
BMW; 167,391
Merc; 145,254

Jaguar sold 4,987 cars in Germany in 2015.

Honda sold 53,417 units in the UK - not sure what the Civic totals are specifically. However Honda in Europe seems to be a diminishing brand, the figures across all countries appear to be dropping year on year.

Germany is the biggest market; 21,074 cars
After that it's all sub 10,000 -
Spain; 7,862
Across 12 EU countries (excluding Germany) total sales were 39,878 (74.65% of UK sales).

The point behind throwing so many numbers about, is that if tariffs are imposed the cars built in the UK actually have a big market to go after. Jag could triple UK sales and still only be half of BMW - yet it could dwarf their potential losses across the EU.

If the government are able to get creative and use the money raised by the EU deficit tariffs to help offset costs for UK manufacturers then they could still be competitive in the EU and be cheaper in the UK. However I appreciate that is asking a lot from the government!! The negotiations are critical - so ultimately if the government mess up the very complex discussions with the EU we really are in a mess and you really can see it having a majorly bad impact.

BUT the UK is a big market - the EU manufacturers want access to it, the UK wants to work with the EU - both have opposing views on free movement - hence the need for negotiating. I really hope (as a remain voter) that we don't screw it up, as I've put before I'm mildly optimistic - although I know I'm putting my faith in politicians to get it right - which is always a bit concerning

[davepoth]

This is a good example of why Germany is going to make this deal work. The situation is bad enough in the industrial areas there without having something else to blame on the EU - and the imposition of tariffs is going to hurt BMW/Audi/Mercedes a lot.

[don'tbesilly]

davepoth said:

This is a good example of why Germany is going to make this deal work. The situation is bad enough in the industrial areas there without having something else to blame on the EU - and the imposition of tariffs is going to hurt BMW/Audi/Mercedes a lot.

[///ajd]

sanf said:

This is another one of those really complex areas, where jostling for position seems to be fully on the go. Some of the car stats for the UK area really interesting, especially when compared to the export/Import numbers.

The UK is a big car market - so you have to wonder if any tariffs are imposed, what opportunity could be on offer to UK built cars, if the government needed to be creative - how could the UK market change??

The UK purchased 2.633 million new cars in 2015. Only Germany bought more @ 3.206 million. By the time Belgium is reached in 6th its 501,066 cars. The from 7th (Netherlands) to 27th (Cyprus) between all of them they purchased 2.846 million, from 8th-27th it's 2.397 million.

The top 10 cars sold in the UK represent 691,281 cars sold - of those 3 are made in the UK (Qashqai, Astra, Mini) - so 7 of the top 10 cars sold in the UK are imported. These 7 make up 530,688 units.

Based on the stats provided in the newspaper link above, the UK exports 502,647 cars to the EU. So total exports are less than the top 7 best selling imported cars.

If Brands are considered - Jaguar sold 23,954 cars in the UK, Landrover 66,574.
Audi; 166,709,
BMW; 167,391
Merc; 145,254

Jaguar sold 4,987 cars in Germany in 2015.

Honda sold 53,417 units in the UK - not sure what the Civic totals are specifically. However Honda in Europe seems to be a diminishing brand, the figures across all countries appear to be dropping year on year.

Germany is the biggest market; 21,074 cars
After that it's all sub 10,000 -
Spain; 7,862
Across 12 EU countries (excluding Germany) total sales were 39,878 (74.65% of UK sales).

The point behind throwing so many numbers about, is that if tariffs are imposed the cars built in the UK actually have a big market to go after. Jag could triple UK sales and still only be half of BMW - yet it could dwarf their potential losses across the EU.

If the government are able to get creative and use the money raised by the EU deficit tariffs to help offset costs for UK manufacturers then they could still be competitive in the EU and be cheaper in the UK. However I appreciate that is asking a lot from the government!! The negotiations are critical - so ultimately if the government mess up the very complex discussions with the EU we really are in a mess and you really can see it having a majorly bad impact.

BUT the UK is a big market - the EU manufacturers want access to it, the UK wants to work with the EU - both have opposing views on free movement - hence the need for negotiating. I really hope (as a remain voter) that we don't screw it up, as I've put before I'm mildly optimistic - although I know I'm putting my faith in politicians to get it right - which is always a bit concerning

So you think Jag are fibbing and are not able to see the majesty of your logic?

The idea that brexit britain will thrive and become a global trade powerhouse - by becoming insular and only buying cars made in the UK - is as daft as I just made it sound.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

So you think Jag are fibbing and are not able to see the majesty of your logic?

The idea that brexit britain will thrive and become a global trade powerhouse - by becoming insular and only buying cars made in the UK - is as daft as I just made it sound.

And we will not be buying only cars made in the UK, its just that JLR will be handed a market advantage here and if the EU insists on tariffs a lot of people will respond by putting two fingers up to them. I expect JLR are now kicking themselves that they based a new factory in eastern Europe rather than India, as their biggest European market is the UK and will suffer tariffs selling here.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

And we will not be buying only cars made in the UK, its just that JLR will be handed a market advantage here and if the EU insists on tariffs a lot of people will respond by putting two fingers up to them. I expect JLR are now kicking themselves that they based a new factory in eastern Europe rather than India, as their biggest European market is the UK and will suffer tariffs selling here.

Not really, JLR said they were concerned about various issues including free movement and their supply chain.

Their slovakia operation might well prove timely if brexit is a mess.

The headline is they are worried about the impact on jobs - i.e. uk jobs. Jobs that may move to the EU.

It can't be any clearer.

But go ahead and tell them they are at a market advantage with frustrated JIT supply chains and constrained recruiting obstacles.

I wonder if Fox is ignoring them. He probably knows best and will tell them so. His experience as a doctor makes him well placed to lecture oily rags in the car business - he can tell them they need to pull their socks up, stop playing so much golf and do their duty for Britain.

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

So you think Jag are fibbing and are not able to see the majesty of your logic?

The idea that brexit britain will thrive and become a global trade powerhouse - by becoming insular and only buying cars made in the UK - is as daft as I just made it sound.

That's not what was being said at all. To think so is what's absurd.