The economic consequences of Brexit

[jjlynn27]

You can put it as 1min. Not sure what will that show you.

[V8RX7]

jjlynn27 said:

1week



1mnt

I know you didn't make the graph and the distorted scale suits Traders trying to read it easily.

But when the Media post them they always do similar rather than having the axis start at zero which shows the whole picture and looks a LOT steadier.

[WinstonWolf]

jjlynn27 said:

You can put it as 1min. Not sure what will that show you.

That graphs can show anything you want. There's certainly good money to be made on the markets at the moment if that's your thing.

[JNW1]

sealtt said:

I think GBPUSD is a better indicator, more real economy money driving it.

Perhaps but as I type GBP/USD is at just over 1.35 and at the end of February it was 1.38; so yes it's at a relatively low level but if you discount the move up in anticipation of a Remain vote last Thursday the pound hasn't actually suffered the massive collapse some people are making out. That's not to say it won't resume a downward path in the not too distant future but all in all it's a bit too early to say exactly how the markets will pan-out IMO; at least some of that will depend on the terms we can secure to maintain access to the Single Market and we won't know that for quite a while......

[jjlynn27]

V8RX7 said:

I know you didn't make the graph and the distorted scale suits Traders trying to read it easily.

But when the Media post them they always do similar rather than having the axis start at zero which shows the whole picture and looks a LOT steadier.

Default settings from xe.com

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...

url is very user friendly if your wireless mouse is out of batteries

[jjlynn27]

WinstonWolf said:

jjlynn27 said:

You can put it as 1min. Not sure what will that show you.

That graphs can show anything you want. There's certainly good money to be made on the markets at the moment if that's your thing.

Most certainly can. I thought that it would be relevant to include referendum result time in the time scale. Other opinions are equally valid.

[WinstonWolf]

jjlynn27 said:

WinstonWolf said:

jjlynn27 said:

You can put it as 1min. Not sure what will that show you.

That graphs can show anything you want. There's certainly good money to be made on the markets at the moment if that's your thing.

Most certainly can. I thought that it would be relevant to include referendum result time in the time scale. Other opinions are equally valid.

Call me old fashioned but I don't think the rate from 1953 has *that* much to do with the referendum...

[jjlynn27]

WinstonWolf said:

jjlynn27 said:

WinstonWolf said:

jjlynn27 said:

You can put it as 1min. Not sure what will that show you.

That graphs can show anything you want. There's certainly good money to be made on the markets at the moment if that's your thing.

Most certainly can. I thought that it would be relevant to include referendum result time in the time scale. Other opinions are equally valid.

Call me old fashioned but I don't think the rate from 1953 has *that* much to do with the referendum...

I found that graph weird too. No idea who posted that or why.

[Derek Smith]

JNW1 said:

Perhaps but as I type GBP/USD is at just over 1.35 and at the end of February it was 1.38; so yes it's at a relatively low level but if you discount the move up in anticipation of a Remain vote last Thursday the pound hasn't actually suffered the massive collapse some people are making out. That's not to say it won't resume a downward path in the not too distant future but all in all it's a bit too early to say exactly how the markets will pan-out IMO; at least some of that will depend on the terms we can secure to maintain access to the Single Market and we won't know that for quite a while......

I think your logic is a bit confused I think. If the pound went up in anticipation of a remain vote then, logic suggests, it would have either stayed at that level or, because of the uncertainty ending, risen. So the level of the pound against the dollar now should be compared to where it would have been if the vote had gone the other way.

As you say, it is volatile. Much will depend on the choice of PM and much, much more will depend on the negotiations. If the EU plays things hard and we decide to leave without much in the way of negotiations, I think we will see a plummet then.

[powerstroke]

Hopefully the pound will stay low ,

[shakotan]

kiethton said:

shakotan said:

Sheets Tabuer said:

Just had a call from Dell, price increases from 1st of July and we're looking at a 15% increase.

I would suggest that the main reason there is opportunism.

Far from it, I trust you've seen the GBP/USD chart?

That price increase only leaves a marginal price increase after you've debased the sale value to the component cost currency...

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

[Mario149]

Derek Smith said:

Probably worse off after five years, according to most pundits, no one has a clue after 10, it is all guesswork.

This^^. Even the Leave side have come round to the fact that we're going to be borked for at least 5 years compared to where we likely should have been.

Even if you assume we *don't* have a recession (which now seems unlikely) and that growth say just slows to 1% for the next 5 years instead of maintaining the ~2.5% average we've had over the last couple, the Brexit economy would still be about 7% smaller than the Bremain one. In 10 years anything could happen in the EU or in the world, but I know where I'd rather be starting from in 5 years time, and it's not 7% lower.

Ironically, we tend to have recession in cycles about every 10-15 years. We were coming up to one in the "natural" cycle anyway, but the British people in their infinite wisdom have decided that the last one was so cataclysmically fun that we should sort ourselves another one asap.

[jjlynn27]

shakotan said:

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

I'll try to explain differently. This price increase is result of Dell's view where the pound is going to go. In other words, they see that result of brexit will push pound down. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this. And they are not going to be the only ones, of course. Hence need for calming the markets and getting on with things.

[don4l]

jjlynn27 said:

shakotan said:

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

I'll try to explain differently. This price increase is result of Dell's view where the pound is going to go. In other words, they see that result of brexit will push pound down. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this. And they are not going to be the only ones, of course. Hence need for calming the markets and getting on with things.

The Pound is currently rising.

Do you agree that Dell have got it wrong?

[Mario149]

don4l said:

jjlynn27 said:

shakotan said:

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

I'll try to explain differently. This price increase is result of Dell's view where the pound is going to go. In other words, they see that result of brexit will push pound down. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this. And they are not going to be the only ones, of course. Hence need for calming the markets and getting on with things.

The Pound is currently rising.

Do you agree that Dell have got it wrong?

At the risk of putting words into jlynn's mouth, they made a long term judgement (probably 6+ months I'd imagine with suppliers and what not) and it doesn't matter whether Dell have got it wrong, the end result is still the same: their product just got 15% more expensive for us to buy.

[shakotan]

Mario149 said:

don4l said:

jjlynn27 said:

shakotan said:

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

I'll try to explain differently. This price increase is result of Dell's view where the pound is going to go. In other words, they see that result of brexit will push pound down. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this. And they are not going to be the only ones, of course. Hence need for calming the markets and getting on with things.

The Pound is currently rising.

Do you agree that Dell have got it wrong?

At the risk of putting words into jlynn's mouth, they made a long term judgement (probably 6+ months I'd imagine with suppliers and what not) and it doesn't matter whether Dell have got it wrong, the end result is still the same: their product just got 15% more expensive for us to buy.

...and in doing so made their competition's pricing more attractive.

It seems a rather unusual thing to do if not opportunism. There is never forward visibility on currency, so it seems odd that they'd react different now to a dip than they did to a similar dip in February. Presumably once the GBP is back where it was before June 24th, they'll recind the increase?

No, probably not...

[lostkiwi]

shakotan said:

Mario149 said:

don4l said:

jjlynn27 said:

shakotan said:

I have seen it, and yet Dell didn't see reason for a 15% price increase in February when the dollar was at 1.38/£.

How surprising.

I'll try to explain differently. This price increase is result of Dell's view where the pound is going to go. In other words, they see that result of brexit will push pound down. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this. And they are not going to be the only ones, of course. Hence need for calming the markets and getting on with things.

The Pound is currently rising.

Do you agree that Dell have got it wrong?

At the risk of putting words into jlynn's mouth, they made a long term judgement (probably 6+ months I'd imagine with suppliers and what not) and it doesn't matter whether Dell have got it wrong, the end result is still the same: their product just got 15% more expensive for us to buy.

...and in doing so made their competition's pricing more attractive.

It seems a rather unusual thing to do if not opportunism. There is never forward visibility on currency, so it seems odd that they'd react different now to a dip than they did to a similar dip in February. Presumably once the GBP is back where it was before June 24th, they'll recind the increase?

No, probably not...

Dell could be behaving differently following their acquisition of EMC....

[sidicks]

shakotan said:

...and in doing so made their competition's pricing more attractive.

It seems a rather unusual thing to do if not opportunism. There is never forward visibility on currency, so it seems odd that they'd react different now to a dip than they did to a similar dip in February. Presumably once the GBP is back where it was before June 24th, they'll recind the increase?

No, probably not...

So you couldn't, for example buy a 3 month forward contract to hedge your currency position with certainty?

[crankedup]

Economically stable and coping, Socially and structurally improving and better.

[eatcustard]

After 5 years we will be cooking on gas, Trade deals will have been struck and the EU will be floundering with the remaining 20 EU counties