The economic consequences of Brexit

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

Digga said:

Clearly, there's dissonance between the political Germany and the business Germany.

Remind me, who will we be negotiating with, business leaders or political officials?

If the UK referendum had only included business people there would most certainly have been a completely different result, unfortunately business rarely trumps politics, or public sentiment.

That's kind of the thrust of my post - I agree.

As for Merkel's future in politics, I can't claim to have a worthwhile opinion.

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

A bright, shiny, virtually worthless pound coin says Merkel will be chancellor next year

I'll take you up on that, either 1 Euro or 1 shiny British pound coin.

Based on the discussions I've had with Germans, I cant see her keeping her position. We will still end up with a similar political animal to deal with though. The way the Germans choose their chancellor is a bit "different".

[SELON]

Digga said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

In part, this does illustrate the folly of those Remainers who saw staying as 'safe'; there has always been an undercurrent of sniping at the UK and our 'special' agreements and arrangements with the EU.

It really doesn't. There's always been a tension between that who want closer union and those who don't. That has never been as simple as a split between the UK and everyone else. The irony is that the UK's "side" had pretty much won the argument through EU expansion and the safeguards in place to protect non-Eurozone members. "Ever closer union" had been reduced to hollow rhetoric. And it doesn't matter what EU Parliamentarians say anyway, because they have no power. The reason they have no power is because national governments don't have any interest in ceding any power to them, regardless of how much some of those self-same governments have wked on about solidarity and the great EU project over the years.

Nonsense. The trouble has always been that the most influential EU nations are the ones that have been most antagonised by the UK. Sure, there are Eastern nations with similar concerns over freedom of movement, there is the fiscal discipline of Germany which pretty much guarantees a.) it will never fully integrate the Euro project and b.) will not bail-in the PIIGS, but the UK is repeatedly isolated on a number of issues.

Re: bail-in. I think that is exactly the problem, they did make the countries bail-in and not bail them out (say in the way the USA handles similar situations). Germany have benefited from a weaker DMark over the past 16 years to allow their exports to remain competitive and boom, while the Southern European economies that are more reliant on imports/tourism suffer from high drachma and pesetas (in euros of course). There in lies one of the main economic imbalances of the Eurozone. To be fair, it only gets fixed politically which is a way off...

Edited by SELON on Wednesday 19th October 21:12

[catso]

jsf said:

I'll take you up on that, either 1 Euro or 1 shiny British pound coin.

Whichever's worth more...

[anonymous-user]

catso said:

jsf said:

I'll take you up on that, either 1 Euro or 1 shiny British pound coin.

Whichever's worth more...

Now or then?

[Digga]

SELON said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

In part, this does illustrate the folly of those Remainers who saw staying as 'safe'; there has always been an undercurrent of sniping at the UK and our 'special' agreements and arrangements with the EU.

It really doesn't. There's always been a tension between that who want closer union and those who don't. That has never been as simple as a split between the UK and everyone else. The irony is that the UK's "side" had pretty much won the argument through EU expansion and the safeguards in place to protect non-Eurozone members. "Ever closer union" had been reduced to hollow rhetoric. And it doesn't matter what EU Parliamentarians say anyway, because they have no power. The reason they have no power is because national governments don't have any interest in ceding any power to them, regardless of how much some of those self-same governments have wked on about solidarity and the great EU project over the years.

Nonsense. The trouble has always been that the most influential EU nations are the ones that have been most antagonised by the UK. Sure, there are Eastern nations with similar concerns over freedom of movement, there is the fiscal discipline of Germany which pretty much guarantees a.) it will never fully integrate the Euro project and b.) will not bail-in the PIIGS, but the UK is repeatedly isolated on a number of issues.

Re: bail-in. I think that is exactly the problem, they did make the countries bail-in and not bail them out (say in the way the USA handles similar situations). Germany have benefited from a weaker DMark over the past 16 years to allow their exports to remain competitive and boom, while the Southern European economies that are more reliant on imports/tourism suffer from high drachma and pesetas (in euros of course). There in lies one of the main economic imbalances of the Eurozone. To be fair, it only gets fixed politically which is a way off...

Edited by SELON on Wednesday 19th October 21:12

SELON, thanks for correcting me; you are right, I used "bail in" when I should have said "bail out", but I think we both agree on where the crux of the issue is.

Interesting reading the comments regarding work ethic on the "Can we talk about Germany?" thread right now: http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

[AC43]

News in the Torygraph this morning.

Foxtons announce a 30% drop in property transactions in London since the vote.

And Fintech funding in London has fallen off a cliff due to all the uncertainty.

We're really hoping for a MASSIVE increase in tractor production to fill the gaps.

[sarcasm mode]Fingers crossed!!![/sarcasm mode]

[RYH64E]

AC43 said:

We're really hoping for a MASSIVE increase in tractor production to fill the gaps.

[sarcasm mode]Fingers crossed!!![/sarcasm mode]

And fishing, don't forget fishing.

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

AC43 said:

We're really hoping for a MASSIVE increase in tractor production to fill the gaps.

[sarcasm mode]Fingers crossed!!![/sarcasm mode]

And fishing, don't forget fishing.

Trawling for fish in coal powered tractors.

We've been highly vulnerable as an economy by our over-reliance on FS and foreign property buyers for a good while. It would have been better to achieve diversification through other means though. This is not going to be an easy transition.

[walm]

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

[alfie2244]

Digga said:

Trawling for fish in coal powered tractors.

Some expert you are..........have never heard of coalfish?......closely related to pollocks

[Digga]

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

[walm]

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

For 33% of Brexit voters, immigration was the number one issue.
I guess they like washing their own cars.

[B'stard Child]

walm said:

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

For 33% of Brexit voters, immigration was the number one issue.
I guess they like washing their own cars.

Now tell me what % of the 33% was "control of immigration" and what percentage was "send all the feckers home"

[Digga]

walm said:

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

For 33% of Brexit voters, immigration was the number one issue.
I guess they like washing their own cars.

TBF, my fun car either I was or the top-notch detailer does, but my daily driver is done (and to a very high standard I have to say) by the Kurdish Iraqi lads at the local hand car wash.

[98elise]

B'stard Child said:

walm said:

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

For 33% of Brexit voters, immigration was the number one issue.
I guess they like washing their own cars.

Now tell me what % of the 33% was "control of immigration" and what percentage was "send all the feckers home"

Its only the remainers who thought Brexit meant we would be sending people back.

[B'stard Child]

98elise said:

B'stard Child said:

walm said:

Digga said:

walm said:

Digga said:

This is not going to be an easy transition.

But you know - fewer Polish people around, so there's that.

Really? How so? Are we ejecting them? Not certain that was ever what the referendum was about, even if some idiots might have wrongly assumed it.

For 33% of Brexit voters, immigration was the number one issue.
I guess they like washing their own cars.

Now tell me what % of the 33% was "control of immigration" and what percentage was "send all the feckers home"

Its only the remainers who thought Brexit meant we would be sending people back.

That's not true - every fecker the media has interviewed for weeks on the subject of Brexit has been an advocate of sending them back - so there must be a huge percentage of the 33%



It surely couldn't be cherry picking by the media - surely it couldn't......

[amgmcqueen]

AC43 said:

News in the Torygraph this morning.

Foxtons announce a 30% drop in property transactions in London since the vote.

And Fintech funding in London has fallen off a cliff due to all the uncertainty.

We're really hoping for a MASSIVE increase in tractor production to fill the gaps.

[sarcasm mode]Fingers crossed!!![/sarcasm mode]

Oh god no! Not Foxtons surely.......?!

[vonuber]

B'stard Child said:

Now tell me what % of the 33% was "control of immigration" and what percentage was "send all the feckers home"

Well given the poster that the Trump supporting ukip-is-he-isnt-he leader Farage (who is still being paid by the EU, note) put up I would suggest that it is very much send 'em back.

[AC43]

amgmcqueen said:

AC43 said:

News in the Torygraph this morning.

Foxtons announce a 30% drop in property transactions in London since the vote.

And Fintech funding in London has fallen off a cliff due to all the uncertainty.

We're really hoping for a MASSIVE increase in tractor production to fill the gaps.

[sarcasm mode]Fingers crossed!!![/sarcasm mode]

Oh god no! Not Foxtons surely.......?!

I have no love for Foxtons. It's just the data that sucks.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-how...