The economic consequences of Brexit

[Trabi601]

jsf said:

Trabi601 said:

Fuel costs are up around 25% on 12 months ago. This has to start filtering down to food prices as the months go on.

Sadly, there appears to be no end to the rising fuel prices, too.

No they are not, they are within 1 pence of 12 months ago.

Fuel is still significantly cheaper than it was a few years ago, it hasn't yet recovered from the crash due to the slow down of the world economy and overproduction.

We're a month away from me having conversations at work about who would be the first to hit 99.9p for unleaded. Diesel was, I recall, about in alignment. This year, diesel is a bit more expensive - and is hitting circa 119.9p in many places.

I'm watching the price rising on a daily basis. There are still some rises which are yet to hit the pumps due to billing cycles.

[anonymous-user]

Trabi601 said:

jsf said:

Trabi601 said:

Fuel costs are up around 25% on 12 months ago. This has to start filtering down to food prices as the months go on.

Sadly, there appears to be no end to the rising fuel prices, too.

No they are not, they are within 1 pence of 12 months ago.

Fuel is still significantly cheaper than it was a few years ago, it hasn't yet recovered from the crash due to the slow down of the world economy and overproduction.

We're a month away from me having conversations at work about who would be the first to hit 99.9p for unleaded. Diesel was, I recall, about in alignment. This year, diesel is a bit more expensive - and is hitting circa 119.9p in many places.

I'm watching the price rising on a daily basis. There are still some rises which are yet to hit the pumps due to billing cycles.

And?

What you wrote was bks.

[unrepentant]

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21709015-not...

[Trabi601]

jsf said:

And?

What you wrote was bks.

• shrugs*

I'm 6-8 weeks out on the bottom of the market. I should have looked up my figures from last year before posting...

So, I'll clarify - pump price at 1st January was around 99.9p (depending on where you were) - pump price today in many places is up to 119.9p for diesel.

'Off rack' costs, especially for diesel, have seen 5% rises in the last 20 days. As I say, pump prices are still to catch up - with the average lag being 7-14 days.

[davepoth]

Trabi601 said:

• shrugs*

I'm 6-8 weeks out on the bottom of the market. I should have looked up my figures from last year before posting...

So, I'll clarify - pump price at 1st January was around 99.9p (depending on where you were) - pump price today in many places is up to 119.9p for diesel.

'Off rack' costs, especially for diesel, have seen 5% rises in the last 20 days. As I say, pump prices are still to catch up - with the average lag being 7-14 days.

So if we strip the currency fluctuation (or sterling crash, depending on how you want to look at it ) out, what would the price be today?

[anonymous-user]

Trabi601 said:

• shrugs*

I'm 6-8 weeks out on the bottom of the market. I should have looked up my figures from last year before posting...

So, I'll clarify - pump price at 1st January was around 99.9p (depending on where you were) - pump price today in many places is up to 119.9p for diesel.

'Off rack' costs, especially for diesel, have seen 5% rises in the last 20 days. As I say, pump prices are still to catch up - with the average lag being 7-14 days.

So what?

If you are going to contribute, at least attempt to be accurate with your posts, rather than try and overstate the situation.

It's clear as day to anyone that fuel prices will rise for two reasons, the first is that the world market has been depressed and there was a deflationary pressure for the last few years with an over supply of the product, that's starting to change which is why the $ price is now climbing.

The second effect, which is relevant to your point, is the fall in the value of the £ against the $, that's a given.

The UK pump price is relatively isolated from the first effect, because of the amount of tax that is applied to the cost of fuel makes up a significant amount of the pump price, its why when the market priced fuel high a few years ago, it was the low tax economies such as in the USA where the average worker really suffered, we just took it on the chin and got on with it. Its why, despite the collapse of the crude price, our pump prices didn't follow suit to the same extent.

There will come a time in the future when pump prices will hit the costs in 2012, we will manage that just as we did the last time.

[Trabi601]

davepoth said:

So if we strip the currency fluctuation (or sterling crash, depending on how you want to look at it ) out, what would the price be today?

Well, yes, I think that's the point. Fuel is priced in $, so we've seen a big readjustment in UK off rack pricing.

We've seen $45 to $51 a barrel in the last 4 weeks, combined with Sterling devaluation. It's not a good outlook, especially with the industry predicting $60 a barrel going into the new year.

(Again, with the lag between barrels, off-rack and pump prices, we are still to see some of the costs being passed on)

[davepoth]

Trabi601 said:

davepoth said:

So if we strip the currency fluctuation (or sterling crash, depending on how you want to look at it ) out, what would the price be today?

Well, yes, I think that's the point. Fuel is priced in $, so we've seen a big readjustment in UK off rack pricing.

We've seen $45 to $51 a barrel in the last 4 weeks, combined with Sterling devaluation. It's not a good outlook, especially with the industry predicting $60 a barrel going into the new year.

(Again, with the lag between barrels, off-rack and pump prices, we are still to see some of the costs being passed on)

Crude is up around 13% ish then, and the pound is down about 17% since the peak - about 60% currency, and 40% crude then. Not trying to score any points, just intrigued really.

[Countdown]

davepoth said:

I've been off work for the last few days and I've noticed something odd; a significantly higher proportion of Remainers posting during office hours.

It could be that a higher proportion of Remainers have the freedom to post during office hours e.g. they're the boss/CEO/Director with their own offices , or they've sold up their multi-million dollar business and retired at the age of 40 to the leafy suburbs with their secretary, or they're a lefty socialist dole bludger on long term sick with a bad back.

[Trabi601]

davepoth said:

Crude is up around 13% ish then, and the pound is down about 17% since the peak - about 60% currency, and 40% crude then. Not trying to score any points, just intrigued really.

Yeah, I got you weren't point scoring!

It's an intriguing position - during my time in the business, I've seen rising crude 'hidden' from the UK market by the strength of Sterling. At the moment, we're getting a double whammy of rising crude with falling Sterling. It's not a good time to be in the retail business in the UK - although it will protect 'upstream' jobs, which were being culled whilst crude was at silly low prices.

Thing is, if we are heading towards that 25% as I quoted (and we will hit that as the price last year continued to fall as today's price is continuing to rise) - it will soon start to hit food prices.

This is not good for anyone - I'm now spending some savings as leaving them in the bank is just eroding my hard earned money.

[davepoth]

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

[davepoth]

Trabi601 said:

This is not good for anyone - I'm now spending some savings as leaving them in the bank is just eroding my hard earned money.

And that's why a bit of inflationary pressure is good for the economy! I splurged on a fancy new hi-fi for my car last week for more or less the same reason - it was priced in USD so the longer I left it the pricier it would be.

Oddly, we've sort of accidentally done what every central banker the world over was trying to work out how to do - devalue a major currency to cause some inflation so that interest rates could start to lift to normality again. Everywhere is bumping along the bottom at the moment with both inflation and interest near zero, so it'll be very interesting to see what the BoE does if it starts to look like we might overshoot the target.

[Trabi601]

davepoth said:

Trabi601 said:

This is not good for anyone - I'm now spending some savings as leaving them in the bank is just eroding my hard earned money.

And that's why a bit of inflationary pressure is good for the economy! I splurged on a fancy new hi-fi for my car last week for more or less the same reason - it was priced in USD so the longer I left it the pricier it would be.

Oddly, we've sort of accidentally done what every central banker the world over was trying to work out how to do - devalue a major currency to cause some inflation so that interest rates could start to lift to normality again. Everywhere is bumping along the bottom at the moment with both inflation and interest near zero, so it'll be very interesting to see what the BoE does if it starts to look like we might overshoot the target.

Similar thing to you - bought a Japanese import before they get too expensive!

I also have what was 500 quid's worth of Yen in my office, bought back in May, which I forgot to take to Tokyo with me. I reckon I may make a profit on this even taking into account the difference in buying / selling rates at the Post Office!

[anonymous-user]

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

[alfie2244]

jsf said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

Fruitcake Walloonies to blame then?

[anonymous-user]

alfie2244 said:

jsf said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

Fruitcake Walloonies to blame then?

The basic structure of the EU and how it works is to blame.

[davepoth]

alfie2244 said:

Fruitcake Walloonies to blame then?

Not really. Blame a political system that allows a regional government with responsibility for .7% of the population of Europe to derail a trade deal. To put it in context it would be roughly equivalent (in population terms) to giving Bristol a veto over trade deals in a post Brexit UK.

[MDMetal]

Nevermind Canada, pop into number 10 on your way back and we'll get it hashed put in a few hours. Seriously is now not the time to show the EU and the world how we aim to do this properly? Show everyone there's nothing to panic about and the balls in the EUs court if they want a good deal

[Trabi601]

MDMetal said:

Nevermind Canada, pop into number 10 on your way back and we'll get it hashed put in a few hours. Seriously is now not the time to show the EU and the world how we aim to do this properly? Show everyone there's nothing to panic about and the balls in the EUs court if they want a good deal

It appears the ball is being firmly held by Waloons right now!

[anonymous-user]

Trabi601 said:

It appears the ball is being firmly held by Waloons right now!

Fortunately we only need 20 states and at least 65% of the EU population to be within those 20 states, to agree on an exit deal.