The economic consequences of Brexit

[davepoth]

Justin Trudeau has a busy night ahead of him with tippex and a biro, replacing "European Union" with "United Kingdom" on all of the copies of CETA he has.

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/forge...

[Tryke3]

MDMetal said:

Nevermind Canada, pop into number 10 on your way back and we'll get it hashed put in a few hours. Seriously is now not the time to show the EU and the world how we aim to do this properly? Show everyone there's nothing to panic about and the balls in the EUs court if they want a good deal

Hand your arse on a plate just to do a trade deal ? Tha ks but no thanks

[230TE]

You've heard of failed states, now welcome to the failed superstate. The problem isn't that the EU has too much power, it's that it doesn't have anything like enough power to achieve its goals. It also lacks leadership, which is pretty important for a superstate. The idea was that the whole idea of national interest would by now have withered away and we would all see ourselves as citizens of Europe, working (and voting) selflessly for the common European destiny like some kind of multilingual hippie commune. That idea appeals to global corporations, EU politicians, a fairly small number of over-educated left liberals and, as it turns out, almost no-one else. The Canadians are spot on here - if the EU can't even agree a deal with a bunch of nice, helpful, fractionally left of centre Euro-friendly folk, some of whom speak French as their first language, then what chance of EU trade deals happening with any other countries?

[b2hbm]

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

If that report becomes the reality and the CETA deal falls through it illustrates to me just how problematical the EU has become. Tragic really. I can see Merkel et al bringing some pressure to bear behind the scenes.

edit to add : apparently they're meeting this morning to sort it out. You just gotta love this EU brinkmanship. If I were the Canadians I'd have flown home last night and made the EU ask us to come back...

Edited by b2hbm on Saturday 22 October 08:18

[FN2TypeR]

It also shows that the UK getting a bespoke deal within two years is unlikely.

[anonymous-user]

Tryke3 said:

MDMetal said:

Nevermind Canada, pop into number 10 on your way back and we'll get it hashed put in a few hours. Seriously is now not the time to show the EU and the world how we aim to do this properly? Show everyone there's nothing to panic about and the balls in the EUs court if they want a good deal

Hand your arse on a plate just to do a trade deal ? Tha ks but no thanks

UK government already agreed the deal 2 years ago, it's been stuck in the rest of the EU ever since.

[b2hbm]

williamp said:

Right,
Sorry to de-rail this thread from the economic consequences, but you’ve not answered my point about why the EU loaned money to a non-EU Country when the decision adversely affected an EU member country. Nor responded to my positive news about Vehicle exports.

(plus other stuff - all true)

You see: lots of evidence, and none of it from the Daily Mail. So back on topic. Why is the good news about vehicle exports bad??

Sorry mate, you're asking questions that the Remain camp don't want to answer, they're pleading "the right to silence".

The usual suspects will respond when they've found a link to dispute your points but you've got to appreciate that google searches take time to get exactly the right agenda.

[anonymous-user]

FN2TypeR said:

It also shows that the UK getting a bespoke deal within two years is unlikely.

UK deal doesn't have the same issues with small local government bodies as this deal. If the government heads of 20 states in the 27 want it, we will get a decent deal.

[powerstroke]

230TE said:

You've heard of failed states, now welcome to the failed superstate. The problem isn't that the EU has too much power, it's that it doesn't have anything like enough power to achieve its goals. It also lacks leadership, which is pretty important for a superstate. The idea was that the whole idea of national interest would by now have withered away and we would all see ourselves as citizens of Europe, working (and voting) selflessly for the common European destiny like some kind of multilingual hippie commune. That idea appeals to global corporations, EU politicians, a fairly small number of over-educated left liberals and, as it turns out, almost no-one else. The Canadians are spot on here - if the EU can't even agree a deal with a bunch of nice, helpful, fractionally left of centre Euro-friendly folk, some of whom speak French as their first language, then what chance of EU trade deals happening with any other countries?

Sadly the politics and cushy little numbers are more important to our current EU leaders than good business and doing the best for the majority of us... the EU elite are at or close to the let them eat cake stage, We need to accept this and move on , when the wheels come off the Euro and there is civil war in the southern states step in with a UK led free trade deal....

Edited by powerstroke on Saturday 22 October 07:56

[FN2TypeR]

jsf said:

FN2TypeR said:

It also shows that the UK getting a bespoke deal within two years is unlikely.

UK deal doesn't have the same issues with small local government bodies as this deal. If the government heads of 20 states in the 27 want it, we will get a decent deal.

If!

I voted leave and would again but I'd me amazed if such things were tied up within two years tbh.

[anonymous-user]

FN2TypeR said:

jsf said:

FN2TypeR said:

It also shows that the UK getting a bespoke deal within two years is unlikely.

UK deal doesn't have the same issues with small local government bodies as this deal. If the government heads of 20 states in the 27 want it, we will get a decent deal.

If!

I voted leave and would again but I'd me amazed if such things were tied up within two years tbh.

Time will tell us.

It's going to be painful listening to the crying from certain people, if we get a great deal or we don't, you just know it will be slagged off.

The bare bones of the thing is Art50 is all about a severance agreement, it doesn't have to involve any future trade element. It would be best if it did, as it keeps the majority vote out of the equation, which is what is required for trade deals once we have left.

Long term all these trade deals are pointless anyway, because the WTO and EU are trying to change the deal to open up free trade including services, eventually that will come about, but with the EU you just know it will take forever.

[JagLover]

AC43 said:

Gove is such a

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/michael-go...

Mark Carney is almost certainly one of the worst central bankers we have ever had.

The supply of money was already surging (growing 14.7% in the three months to end July'16) and the pound was under pressure BEFORE he then cut interest rates by a further 1/4 percent and increased quantitative easing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/12/why...

I think we are in a very dangerous situation and one in which some are deliberately trying to engineering stagflation in one last desperate attempt to reverse the referendum decision.

[Tryke3]

jsf said:

UK government already agreed the deal 2 years ago, it's been stuck in the rest of the EU ever since.

And you think our goverment is competent enough to hold on for something that is in our interest ? Tbh i dont like this deal just because it seems companies can take the goverment to court over anything, and tbh those canadian companies could ask for billions if this deal wouldve been done before brexit . Are you sure of the st you post in the internet ?

[avinalarf]

I agree that the failure of the EU trade deal with Canada has descended into a farce but before we crow to much let us not forget the failure of our own successive governments to make important strategic decisions in a timely manner.
I give you the Heathrow runway extension as an example.

[///ajd]

jsf said:

FN2TypeR said:

It also shows that the UK getting a bespoke deal within two years is unlikely.

UK deal doesn't have the same issues with small local government bodies as this deal. If the government heads of 20 states in the 27 want it, we will get a decent deal.

The UK deal will be way harder than the Canada deal. Hilarious to think otherwise.

This also makes a mockery of the "UK has no veto" nonsense. If Wallonia can hold something up it doesn't like, surely the UK can - like the EU army for example.......

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

The UK deal will be way harder than the Canada deal. Hilarious to think otherwise.

This also makes a mockery of the "UK has no veto" nonsense. If Wallonia can hold something up it doesn't like, surely the UK can - like the EU army for example.......

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/votin...

Nope. It only has to be unanimity when the states consider it sensitive, and the decision to decide whether something is sensitive is by qualified majority.

[avinalarf]

Although I applaud the idea of free trade agreements I have strong reservations about both CETA and TTIP.
Probably the most important bone of contention is the ability of multi nationals to sue governments (ISDS mechanism)if they act against the best interests of those companies and bring in laws that may affect the future profitability of those companies.
Other examples are the laws in the USA governing workplace practices and GM crops which are more relaxed than those in the EU.

[sidicks]

///ajd said:

The UK deal will be way harder than the Canada deal. Hilarious to think otherwise.

This also makes a mockery of the "UK has no veto" nonsense. If Wallonia can hold something up it doesn't like, surely the UK can - like the EU army for example.......

If only Wallonia is holding up the current deal then implicitly hasn't the UK effectively already agreed a deal with Canada...

[davepoth]

avinalarf said:

Although I applaud the idea of free trade agreements I have strong reservations about both CETA and TTIP.
Probably the most important bone of contention is the ability of multi nationals to sue governments (ISDS mechanism)if they act against the best interests of those companies and bring in laws that may affect the future profitability of those companies.
Other examples are the laws in the USA governing workplace practices and GM crops which are more relaxed than those in the EU.

It's funny, because there has never been a problem with those in any of the other FTAs the EU has signed - ISDS is part of the South Korea deal, for example.

The alternative to ISDS is setting up some sort of international commercial court with jurisdiction over all FTAs, and while in principle that sounds like a sensible idea in practice it will be horrible if you look at how the international criminal court works.

Even the WTO resolves disputes by way of arbitration, the only difference being that the WTO requires states to complain rather than companies - the companies would have to complain to their state first.

[Derek Smith]

avinalarf said:

Although I applaud the idea of free trade agreements I have strong reservations about both CETA and TTIP.
Probably the most important bone of contention is the ability of multi nationals to sue governments (ISDS mechanism)if they act against the best interests of those companies and bring in laws that may affect the future profitability of those companies.
Other examples are the laws in the USA governing workplace practices and GM crops which are more relaxed than those in the EU.

Indeed. What this means is that governments lose sovereignty to an extent. Big business can dictate. Not that it doesn't already I suppose, but here it is established in law.