The economic consequences of Brexit

[davepoth]

avinalarf said:

Surely it was the intransigence of the EU bureaucrats to sit down with member countries and agree to some sensible arrangements to address the justifiable concerns of the electorate of member countries,that has been the problem.

You've lost me - that sounds more like a profiterole recipe.

[sidicks]

avinalarf said:

Surely it was the intransigence of the EU bureaucrats to sit down with member countries and agree to some sensible arrangements to address the justifiable concerns of the electorate of member countries,that has been the problem.

[rscott]

sidicks said:

avinalarf said:

Surely it was the intransigence of the EU bureaucrats to sit down with member countries and agree to some sensible arrangements to address the justifiable concerns of the electorate of member countries,that has been the problem.

One of those concerns being more control over immigration, yet surely our government could have revised the benefit systems in the UK to be more like some other parts of the EU, which would make the UK less appealing to lower skilled, lower earning immigrants.
Had they done so 10-15 years ago, I wonder what situation we'd be in now..

I don't ways agree with Migrationwatch, but this seems a reasonable comparison of the different systems - https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/28...

[anonymous-user]

Tryke3 said:

jsf said:

UK government already agreed the deal 2 years ago, it's been stuck in the rest of the EU ever since.

And you think our goverment is competent enough to hold on for something that is in our interest ? Tbh i dont like this deal just because it seems companies can take the goverment to court over anything, and tbh those canadian companies could ask for billions if this deal wouldve been done before brexit . Are you sure of the st you post in the internet ?

Tell me what is incorrect in the above post, I'm all

[Mrr T]

davepoth said:

Mrr T said:

So you know all the reports said effects on lower end of wages where minimal. You understand minimal mean not very much?

As for social cohesion I have never read that in any report in relation to EU immigrants which even mentions that. They are after all are mainly white Christians.

A lot of people in this country aren't white Christians. I'm a white atheist, and a significant proportion of the people who voted leave would have been from black or other ethnic minorities. It's not about racism. It's not about xenophobia.

Social cohesion is like a meringue. Bear with me.

A meringue is very difficult to prepare. what's really important in a meringue is to add the ingredients at the correct rate. If you add the sugar too quickly for example, it sucks the moisture into the sugar before the sugar has distributed evenly through the mixture, which ruins the meringue.

You have to add the sugar slowly so that it spreads out through the meringue and the mixture has a chance to homogenize before you add more.

At the end, if you've thrown all the sugar in in one go you'll have a chewy mess, but if you did it correctly you'll have lovely stiff peaks.

And that's how social cohesion works.

So that the limit of how you think social cohesion works? You must have been to some odd cooking classes. Social cohesion is better defined as society working toward the benefit of all members of society. I see no evidence EU immigration has effected that. I do see lots of evidence the Brexit vote has had a negative effect on social cohesion.

[jjlynn27]

alfie2244 said:

jjlynn27 said:

So, no answer in reply to a post with questions addressed to someone else. Ok. Cheaper than market rate loan was given to Southampton factory as well, I thought you figured that out after replying to js post. Do you feel that that loan was ok, given that it was funded by EU?

As for the Turkey loan, your question was already replied to in last few pages, repeating them again will add nothing.

Yes I knew of the Southampton loans but didn't realise it was those that js was referring to and yes it was 100% ok given it was an EU loan (part UK money)why would you not give it to a member of your own community?

As for the Turkey loan, do you think it was ok to give them the loan (cheap and part UK funded) when it would obviously damage UK production which happens to be within the EU unlike Turkey? Seems rather underhand to me.

Ok, still no answer to a very simple question either by you or Jinx. Ok. So, since it's ok to give loan to Southamtpon as "member of your own community" by that logic it's also ok to give loan to any entity as long as they are EU based, yes? Like, for example, to the factory in Slovakia. And yet people still complain on these very pages about that loan.

So, to answer your question; Yes, i think it was perfectly ok to give loan to Ford in Turkey, as it represented only part of total amount that was invested in Kiuceli, to gain concessions from Ford for other plants.
Factory in Southampton was not economically viable for a very long time (production of Transits was already going on for 10 years before Ford finally pulled the plug with very significant cost advantages). Nothing underhanded about it, the move would go ahead anyway. Plenty, if you are really interested about it, information about Southampton in trade press / websites.

[jjlynn27]

jsf said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

There we have what? Decent country? Which are decent and which are not so decent countries? The sticking point is ISDS same as with TTIP. You could educate yourself of what that would mean, or you can just type something as meaningless as above.

Decent country, lol.

[sidicks]

rscott said:

One of those concerns being more control over immigration, yet surely our government could have revised the benefit systems in the UK to be more like some other parts of the EU, which would make the UK less appealing to lower skilled, lower earning immigrants.
Had they done so 10-15 years ago, I wonder what situation we'd be in now..

I don't ways agree with Migrationwatch, but this seems a reasonable comparison of the different systems - https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/28...

I think the issue is that we can't offer different benefits to UK and Overseas workers under EU rules.

As the article above shows, our benefits systems is massively more generous than many of other systems in the EU, so this causes issues.

Free movement of people is all very well when opportunities, benefits, cost of living etc are broadly similar in those jurisdictions.

Unfortunately the current situation is nothing like that, resulting in massive one way flow which simply doesn't work and isn't sustainable.

[jjlynn27]

JagLover said:

Mark Carney is almost certainly one of the worst central bankers we have ever had.

The supply of money was already surging (growing 14.7% in the three months to end July'16) and the pound was under pressure BEFORE he then cut interest rates by a further 1/4 percent and increased quantitative easing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/12/why...

I think we are in a very dangerous situation and one in which some are deliberately trying to engineering stagflation in one last desperate attempt to reverse the referendum decision.

He being? I was under impression that interest rates are decided by MPC.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

Ok, still no answer to a very simple question either by you or Jinx. Ok. So, since it's ok to give loan to Southamtpon as "member of your own community" by that logic it's also ok to give loan to any entity as long as they are EU based, yes? Like, for example, to the factory in Slovakia. And yet people still complain on these very pages about that loan.

You keep forgetting where the majority of the money comes from!

How much did Slovakia contribute to the EU budget...?

jjlynn27 said:

So, to answer your question; Yes, i think it was perfectly ok to give loan to Ford in Turkey, as it represented only part of total amount that was invested in Kiuceli, to gain concessions from Ford for other plants.
Factory in Southampton was not economically viable for a very long time (production of Transits was already going on for 10 years before Ford finally pulled the plug with very significant cost advantages). Nothing underhanded about it, the move would go ahead anyway. Plenty, if you are really interested about it, information about Southampton in trade press / websites.

Not economically viable?

Would that be because of massive economic discrepancies in different countries within the EU, yet they want to apply a one size fits all policy, with inevitable (negative) results. I'm sorry you don't understand this.

[Tryke3]

jsf said:

Tryke3 said:

jsf said:

UK government already agreed the deal 2 years ago, it's been stuck in the rest of the EU ever since.

And you think our goverment is competent enough to hold on for something that is in our interest ? Tbh i dont like this deal just because it seems companies can take the goverment to court over anything, and tbh those canadian companies could ask for billions if this deal wouldve been done before brexit . Are you sure of the st you post in the internet ?

Tell me what is incorrect in the above post, I'm all

You brexiters would have a heart attack when canadian companies would stop brexit happening because its against their interest. Just spouting rubbish like all brexiters, fairy tales

[sidicks]

Tryke3 said:

You brexiters would have a heart attack when canadian companies would stop brexit happening because its against their interest. Just spouting rubbish like all brexiters, fairy tales

Speaking of 'fairy tales', aren't you the idiot that was looking forward to an EU army to patrol the borders...??

Edited by sidicks on Saturday 22 October 15:01

[s2art]

Tryke3 said:

You brexiters would have a heart attack when canadian companies would stop brexit happening because its against their interest. Just spouting rubbish like all brexiters, fairy tales

Seek help.

[anonymous-user]

jjlynn27 said:

jsf said:

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

There we have it, a decent country represented by a decent person, who just wasted a huge amount of time and energy trying to do a deal with the dysfunctional EU.

It will be interesting to see if that affects the value of the Euro.

There we have what? Decent country? Which are decent and which are not so decent countries? The sticking point is ISDS same as with TTIP. You could educate yourself of what that would mean, or you can just type something as meaningless as above.

Decent country, lol.

Maybe you could point me to the thread where you argued against the EU-Canada deal when the UK agreed it was a good deal and told the EU we would ratify it.

There are countries and their governments who we would be happy to do business with and who we share similar political and cultural views, I would suggest Canada is one of the most aligned countries to the UK and EU in that respect.

You could of course look up which countries and regimes we currently don't wish to work with on the UK, EU and UN sanctions and embargo lists. Some have limited embargo's on goods such as arms and munitions, some more widespread.

[RYH64E]

sidicks said:

Straw man nonsense.

1. You don't current trade with Canada
2. You won't trade with Canada post Brexit with or without a trade agreement.

Not true, I do trade with Canada, not much but enough to know it's much easier to trade within the EU, for geographic reasons if nothing else.

From most small regional airports in the UK you can get to many European destinations, there and back in a day for around £50, small business owners and representatives do so every day of the week, it's easy. We're never going to have that access to the RotW, regardless of any free trade agreements.

[don4l]

davepoth said:

I think it got missed, but CETA collapsed earlier today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37731955

The Canadian trade minister is almost in tears in the video on that page, and I can see why - the whole thing's been ruined the Wallonia regional parliament. That is no way to effectively run anything.

I've been saying for a long time that it is a complete waste of time trying to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.

This just proves that, once again, I was absolutely right.

Let's get negotiating with the rest of the world.

[anonymous-user]

Tryke3 said:

jsf said:

Tryke3 said:

jsf said:

UK government already agreed the deal 2 years ago, it's been stuck in the rest of the EU ever since.

And you think our goverment is competent enough to hold on for something that is in our interest ? Tbh i dont like this deal just because it seems companies can take the goverment to court over anything, and tbh those canadian companies could ask for billions if this deal wouldve been done before brexit . Are you sure of the st you post in the internet ?

Tell me what is incorrect in the above post, I'm all

You brexiters would have a heart attack when canadian companies would stop brexit happening because its against their interest. Just spouting rubbish like all brexiters, fairy tales

You didn't answer the question. Are you a politician?

I'll ask again. What was incorrect in my first post in this discussion?

[sidicks]

RYH64E said:

Not true, I do trade with Canada, not much but enough to know it's much easier to trade within the EU, for geographic reasons if nothing else.
From most small regional airports in the UK you can get to many European destinations, there and back in a day for around £50, small business owners and representatives do so every day of the week, it's easy. We're never going to have that access to the RotW, regardless of any free trade agreements.

And?

Is someone going to stop you going to the EU post Brexit?

[anonymous-user]

RYH64E said:

sidicks said:

Straw man nonsense.

1. You don't current trade with Canada
2. You won't trade with Canada post Brexit with or without a trade agreement.

Not true, I do trade with Canada, not much but enough to know it's much easier to trade within the EU, for geographic reasons if nothing else.

From most small regional airports in the UK you can get to many European destinations, there and back in a day for around £50, small business owners and representatives do so every day of the week, it's easy. We're never going to have that access to the RotW, regardless of any free trade agreements.

Why do you need to travel there? Can you not do your business using telecoms technology?

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

You keep forgetting where the majority of the money comes from!

How much did Slovakia contribute to the EU budget...?

You keep making demonstrably false statements, only you know why.

It's totally irrelevant where the money came from. That factory was the most expensive plant within PSA group. It would still be the most expensive plant, even with necessary investment to produce new model.

Loan from EIB was not conditioned by 'contribution to EU budget'. Where did majority of money come from for loan of E450m to Southampton in 2010?

sidick said:

Not economically viable?

Would that be because of massive economic discrepancies in different countries within the EU, yet they want to apply a one size fits all policy, with inevitable (negative) results. I'm sorry you don't understand this.

Not economically viable, not sure which part is confusing you. No, it wouldn't be 'because of massive economic discrepanciesi in different countriees within the EU'. Turkey is not in the EU. Southampton was doomed as soon as Ford started producing transits in Turkey. If anything it was kept alive by cheap loans from EIB over the years. Companies move production around all the time. It's not a very hard concept to grasp. Kuicely was producing 170-180k pa significantly cheaper than Southampton. It's really that simple.