The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
jsf said:
That's fair enough.
One of the first things May said when she became PM was she was going to set up an embassy department in major world regions that had people on the ground who spoke the local language and understood the local economy and laws, UK business could contact these people in order to help trade grow.
That should hopefully help, but obviously every business has their requirements which would benefit by variable amounts from this sort of initiative. It's a good sign to UK and world business that we are serious about growing international trade, which has to be a good thing.
The point I was trying to make was, no amount of free trade agreements with far flung countries will compensate for restricted access to the EU Single Market, a market that is geographically very convenient and one that many of us currently trade with. Of course we might not end up with restricted access, no one knows, but with increasing talk of 'hard Brexit' and free trade deals with Australia, Canada, China (as if that's a good thing), etc, it seems to me that that's the way we're heading. One of the first things May said when she became PM was she was going to set up an embassy department in major world regions that had people on the ground who spoke the local language and understood the local economy and laws, UK business could contact these people in order to help trade grow.
That should hopefully help, but obviously every business has their requirements which would benefit by variable amounts from this sort of initiative. It's a good sign to UK and world business that we are serious about growing international trade, which has to be a good thing.
avinalarf said:
RYH64E said:
avinalarf said:
Dear Tony
I love everybody ,white ,black,green,pink,Christian,Jew ,Muslims etc.......I don't give a feck.
I also love to travel and when I travel I respect and enjoy and celebrate the different cultures and traditions of those countries.
I try to avoid very touristy places and expat areas because I prefer to see how the locals live their lives.
Even if I'm visiting a country for a short holiday I teach myself a few words and phrases,I find most locals appreciate that.
I take out travel insurance so that if I fall ill I can have hospital treatment.
If I were to live in another country I would expect to have to fend for myself and my family......pay my own way.
Now in your Utopia where anybody in the EU and their family can breeze into the UK and be invited to benefit almost immediately from a social and health system that they haven't paid a penny towards .....that gives me the hump.
When that level of immigration is uncontrolled and starts putting a strain on our already overstretched infrastructure ....that gives me the hump.
I don't blame the immigrant.....I blame the lack of sensible and prudent checks and balances that politicians appear powerless to create.
The problem you describe is a UK problem not an EU problem, the last time I needed treatment in France I handed over my EH1C card and the receptionist shook her head and pointed to the credit card machine. If the French can charge a UK citizen for treatment there's no reason we couldn't do the same, within the EU. I love everybody ,white ,black,green,pink,Christian,Jew ,Muslims etc.......I don't give a feck.
I also love to travel and when I travel I respect and enjoy and celebrate the different cultures and traditions of those countries.
I try to avoid very touristy places and expat areas because I prefer to see how the locals live their lives.
Even if I'm visiting a country for a short holiday I teach myself a few words and phrases,I find most locals appreciate that.
I take out travel insurance so that if I fall ill I can have hospital treatment.
If I were to live in another country I would expect to have to fend for myself and my family......pay my own way.
Now in your Utopia where anybody in the EU and their family can breeze into the UK and be invited to benefit almost immediately from a social and health system that they haven't paid a penny towards .....that gives me the hump.
When that level of immigration is uncontrolled and starts putting a strain on our already overstretched infrastructure ....that gives me the hump.
I don't blame the immigrant.....I blame the lack of sensible and prudent checks and balances that politicians appear powerless to create.
I don't know how French law applies in the situation you describe.
It might well be that other EU countries choose to interpret EU law less rigorously than the UK.
///ajd said:
7.5% of nearly $3bn GDP. As we're heading for parity thats over £200Bn a year.
Thats £4Bn a week on the side of the big red bus for the gullible.
And you think that will make life better for the poor.
Well it is 7.% of a future higher GDP, not that of todays, and is cited as a worst case scenario. But yes if that is the price of democratic self-governance then so be it. No-one is being asked to fight and die just tighten their belts a bit.Thats £4Bn a week on the side of the big red bus for the gullible.
And you think that will make life better for the poor.
I also believe the poor will be least affected of anyone by such a fall, because it is not been the many benefiting from EU membership in recent years but the few, and at least then they will have a better chance of receiving a wage they can live on.
chrispmartha said:
You say your struggling to understand the problem but then go on to outline exactly what the problem could potentially be, brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.
I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.
Who said I was in favour of leaving the EU, I certainly didn't. I do, however, accept that it will happen and that I'd better get on with the consequences both at home and at work. I will now concentrate on the opportunities and work to mitigate any disadvantages.I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.
This thread is about the economic consequences of Brexit not about the irritation and changes. I challenge the nonsensical inference in some posts that, somehow, it will be more difficult to get to other European places. I also see that there are currently some advantages to be enjoyed and should be maximised whilst working out just what the downside might be and weigh them against the positives. There is a possibility that the 'economic' consequences for businesses may be positive in the short/medium term but it may take a change in working practices and some more effort to realise.
Meanwhile, if you are concerned about a bit more effort then you can carry on feeling sorry for yourself which is, of course, your prerogative.
RYH64E said:
jsf said:
That's fair enough.
One of the first things May said when she became PM was she was going to set up an embassy department in major world regions that had people on the ground who spoke the local language and understood the local economy and laws, UK business could contact these people in order to help trade grow.
That should hopefully help, but obviously every business has their requirements which would benefit by variable amounts from this sort of initiative. It's a good sign to UK and world business that we are serious about growing international trade, which has to be a good thing.
The point I was trying to make was, no amount of free trade agreements with far flung countries will compensate for restricted access to the EU Single Market, a market that is geographically very convenient and one that many of us currently trade with. Of course we might not end up with restricted access, no one knows, but with increasing talk of 'hard Brexit' and free trade deals with Australia, Canada, China (as if that's a good thing), etc, it seems to me that that's the way we're heading. One of the first things May said when she became PM was she was going to set up an embassy department in major world regions that had people on the ground who spoke the local language and understood the local economy and laws, UK business could contact these people in order to help trade grow.
That should hopefully help, but obviously every business has their requirements which would benefit by variable amounts from this sort of initiative. It's a good sign to UK and world business that we are serious about growing international trade, which has to be a good thing.
It's up to the government now to try and do the best they can for the majority of people in the country, be that economic or any other aspect of our future.
RYH64E said:
The point I was trying to make was, no amount of free trade agreements with far flung countries will compensate for restricted access to the EU Single Market, a market that is geographically very convenient and one that many of us currently trade with. Of course we might not end up with restricted access, no one knows, but with increasing talk of 'hard Brexit' and free trade deals with Australia, Canada, China (as if that's a good thing), etc, it seems to me that that's the way we're heading.
Stop making stuff up.Or let me put it another way, stop telling lies.
There is no question of restricted access to the single market.
chrispmartha said:
brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.
Indeed it could and I suspect it will, the only question is probably how much more difficult? Having said that I suspect there's pre-negotiation posturing on both sides at the moment with the EU saying nothing doing unless you accept the full free movement of people and us threatening so-called Hard Brexit. The reality will probably have to be a compromise of some sort as we wouldn't want to lose all access to the Single Market and they wouldn't want to lose access to ours either; in the meantime there is uncertainty we could well do without but I think and hope that common sense will prevail where the Single Market is concerned. However, that does assume the EU behaves rationally and doesn't seek to cut its nose to spite its face which I accept could be a bit of a leap of faith.....RYH64E said:
don4l said:
Stop making stuff up.
Or let me put it another way, stop telling lies.
There is no question of restricted access to the single market.
You really are a fool, PH's very own Donald Trump, all of the rudeness but without the success.Or let me put it another way, stop telling lies.
There is no question of restricted access to the single market.
Nobody has suggested that our access to the single market will be restricted.
Why is it rude for me to point out that you are simply making this up?
Calling me a fool, and them moaning about rudeness is a bit hypocritical... or am I being rude to point that out?
JNW1 said:
Indeed it could and I suspect it will, the only question is probably how much more difficult? Having said that I suspect there's pre-negotiation posturing on both sides at the moment with the EU saying nothing doing unless you accept the full free movement of people and us threatening so-called Hard Brexit. The reality will probably have to be a compromise of some sort as we wouldn't want to lose all access to the Single Market and they wouldn't want to lose access to ours either; in the meantime there is uncertainty we could well do without but I think and hope that common sense will prevail where the Single Market is concerned. However, that does assume the EU behaves rationally and doesn't seek to cut its nose to spite its face which I accept could be a bit of a leap of faith.....
It has always been a political project, rather than an economic one, so we may have to resign ourselves to just trading with them under WTO rules. JNW1 said:
chrispmartha said:
brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.
Indeed it could and I suspect it will, the only question is probably how much more difficult? Having said that I suspect there's pre-negotiation posturing on both sides at the moment with the EU saying nothing doing unless you accept the full free movement of people and us threatening so-called Hard Brexit. The reality will probably have to be a compromise of some sort as we wouldn't want to lose all access to the Single Market and they wouldn't want to lose access to ours either; in the meantime there is uncertainty we could well do without but I think and hope that common sense will prevail where the Single Market is concerned. However, that does assume the EU behaves rationally and doesn't seek to cut its nose to spite its face which I accept could be a bit of a leap of faith.....The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
don4l said:
We won't lose access to the single market. We will simply cease to be part of the single market.
The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
Don, there is a difference between the single market and trade with the EU.The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
The EU have said repeatedly that that single market is part of a four way package and it's all or nothing.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Don, there is a difference between the single market and trade with the EU.
The EU have said repeatedly that that single market is part of a four way package and it's all or nothing.
They haven't and they cant.The EU have said repeatedly that that single market is part of a four way package and it's all or nothing.
The four "freedoms" are required to be a member of the Single Market, not to have access, as has been repeatedly shown to you.
don4l said:
We won't lose access to the single market. We will simply cease to be part of the single market.
The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.
Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..
PurpleMoonlight said:
Don, there is a difference between the single market and trade with the EU.
The EU have said repeatedly that that single market is part of a four way package and it's all or nothing.
There is a huge difference between "access to" and "membership of".The EU have said repeatedly that that single market is part of a four way package and it's all or nothing.
I'm calling out people who are being deliberately misleading by saying that our "access" will be restricted. It won't. Saying that it will be is a lie.
The only thing that will change for me in March 2019 is that I will no longer need to get my EU customers' VAT numbers. It will be marginally easier for me to sell to the EU. My access to the EU market will be just as easy as it is now.
Some companies may face EU import duties, but these are more than offset by the lower Pound.
Garvin said:
chrispmartha said:
You say your struggling to understand the problem but then go on to outline exactly what the problem could potentially be, brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.
I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.
Who said I was in favour of leaving the EU, I certainly didn't. I do, however, accept that it will happen and that I'd better get on with the consequences both at home and at work. I will now concentrate on the opportunities and work to mitigate any disadvantages.I'm also a bit tired of people who are in favour of us leaving the EU telling people who have legimate conerns about what will hapen to stop moaning and get on with it, I'm sure that's what the majority of business owners will do but with all the uncertainty people are rightly concerned.
This thread is about the economic consequences of Brexit not about the irritation and changes. I challenge the nonsensical inference in some posts that, somehow, it will be more difficult to get to other European places. I also see that there are currently some advantages to be enjoyed and should be maximised whilst working out just what the downside might be and weigh them against the positives. There is a possibility that the 'economic' consequences for businesses may be positive in the short/medium term but it may take a change in working practices and some more effort to realise.
Meanwhile, if you are concerned about a bit more effort then you can carry on feeling sorry for yourself which is, of course, your prerogative.
rscott said:
So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.
Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..
English sparkling white wine is already the best in the world (seriously). Brexit will mean we can call it champagne. Similarly, a Belgian beer can be brewed in Birmingham, it just can't be called Belgian beer right now. It's not like there's something special about Melton Mowbray that means a pork pie can't be made anywhere else. It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.
Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..
rscott said:
don4l said:
We won't lose access to the single market. We will simply cease to be part of the single market.
The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.
Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.
Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.
Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..
However, we will be free to take advantage of new world wines which will become much cheaper if we negotiate trade deals with countries like Australia and New Zealand.
I drink very little French wine these days. Many of them are grossly overrated IMHO. They seem to trade on a reputation that was gained more than a century ago.
On the manufacturing front, you only have to look at BMW.
They export a fifth of their production to the UK. Their German made cars are going to be 20% more expensive than they were on June 23rd.
So, the only solution is for BMW to increase production at Cowley.
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