The economic consequences of Brexit

[Sylvaforever]

rscott said:

So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.

Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..

actually petrol had increased in price already.what I just can't fathom is it takes **months** for price to come down but given a sniff and prices skyrocket. now ALL this shows to me is that **you** cannot forecast what will happen due to brexit as we haven't brexit and anything else is scaremongering at the very best and more like subversion from the anti democratic remain camps...

[rscott]

davepoth said:

English sparkling white wine is already the best in the world (seriously). Brexit will mean we can call it champagne. Similarly, a Belgian beer can be brewed in Birmingham, it just can't be called Belgian beer right now. It's not like there's something special about Melton Mowbray that means a pork pie can't be made anywhere else.

English sparkling is good, but not that good.. Many customers also buy a product because of the name - there are many very good sparkling wines available for less than the price of a bad champagne, yet people still pay the extra.

And yes, there are plenty of Belgian style beers brewed in the UK which are very good, but they cannot replicate the taste as it depends on both the water and yeasts used.

There are many other foods & drinks we'll still have to import (olive oil, oranges, lemons) from the EU and won't be able to grow here. These will all have to increase in price without a deal.

The assumption that we can simply make/grow anything we currently import is simply not true.

[don4l]

davepoth said:

English sparkling white wine is already the best in the world (seriously). Brexit will mean we can call it champagne. Similarly, a Belgian beer can be brewed in Birmingham, it just can't be called Belgian beer right now. It's not like there's something special about Melton Mowbray that means a pork pie can't be made anywhere else.

I was allergic to ale for about 20 years. About 2 or three years ago I realised that the allergy had passed. However, it wasn't until 16 months ago that I had my first beer, and it was delicious. Brewing in the UK has been transformed over the last 20 years. Some of these craft ales are seriously good.

You can even make fantastic home brews these days.

So, I won't miss Belgian beer.

I'll admit that I won't be pleased to see Spanish wine go up in price.

[davepoth]

rscott said:

English sparkling is good, but not that good.. Many customers also buy a product because of the name - there are many very good sparkling wines available for less than the price of a bad champagne, yet people still pay the extra.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/20/english...

If the only difference is the name then calling it "Champagne" will solve that.

rscott said:

And yes, there are plenty of Belgian style beers brewed in the UK which are very good, but they cannot replicate the taste as it depends on both the water and yeasts used.

Water and yeast are no problem - brewing yeast is shelf stable (I ship it all around the world in my job) and water is just a matter of chemicals.

rscott said:

There are many other foods & drinks we'll still have to import (olive oil, oranges, lemons) from the EU and won't be able to grow here. These will all have to increase in price without a deal.

The assumption that we can simply make/grow anything we currently import is simply not true.

But we don't have to import all of that from the EU necessarily. Brexit will require a bit of a change of mindset.

[s2art]

rscott said:

There are many other foods & drinks we'll still have to import (olive oil, oranges, lemons) from the EU and won't be able to grow here. These will all have to increase in price without a deal.

Why? Its up to us if we want to put tariffs on stuff we dont grow here, so why would we? Not to mention that the EU is not the only source.

[PurpleMoonlight]

don4l said:

I'll admit that I won't be pleased to see Spanish wine go up in price.

You have 2 years to stock up.

[anonymous-user]

rscott said:

So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.

Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..

The EU imposed tariff rate on none EU wine is 32%. Once we are out of the EU, the EU countries better up their game or we will be consuming none EU wine.

There is a good website on how the USA looks at our distorted wine market here in the EU at http://www.wineinstitute.org/international_trade_p... which shows not only the burdensome tariff regime, but also how much the EU is subsidising the EU wine makers to improve their competitiveness, which the USA consider to be distorting the market even more than would be the case even with the WTO tariff.

We are paying far higher prices than world levels because of our membership of the EU on wine, and many regularly purchased goods such as food.

[JagLover]

rscott said:

English sparkling is good, but not that good.. Many customers also buy a product because of the name - there are many very good sparkling wines available for less than the price of a bad champagne, yet people still pay the extra.

And yes, there are plenty of Belgian style beers brewed in the UK which are very good, but they cannot replicate the taste as it depends on both the water and yeasts used.

There are many other foods & drinks we'll still have to import (olive oil, oranges, lemons) from the EU and won't be able to grow here. These will all have to increase in price without a deal.

The assumption that we can simply make/grow anything we currently import is simply not true.

We pay around 17% more for food than would otherwise be the case due to CAP. There are many significant impacts of Brexit but substituting ROW food for EU food is not going to be one of them.

and seriously we are talking about Belgium beers?. These are all first world problems. Buy a Honda/Toyota/Jaguar rather than Mercedes/Audi/BMW, holiday in the lake district rather than northern italy. Hardly ideal (unless you prefer Jaguars of course) but set against being an independent nation again it is trival and inconsequential.

[don4l]

jsf said:

The EU imposed tariff rate on none EU wine is 32%.

Australian wine is already competetive with French wine. Just imagine what would happen if Australian wine dropped in price by 32% and French wine increased by 32%.

Hollande is stupid enough to let this happen, but La Pen won't allow it.

[JNW1]

don4l said:

JNW1 said:

chrispmartha said:

brexit could make it more difficult to do business within Europe.

Indeed it could and I suspect it will, the only question is probably how much more difficult? Having said that I suspect there's pre-negotiation posturing on both sides at the moment with the EU saying nothing doing unless you accept the full free movement of people and us threatening so-called Hard Brexit. The reality will probably have to be a compromise of some sort as we wouldn't want to lose all access to the Single Market and they wouldn't want to lose access to ours either; in the meantime there is uncertainty we could well do without but I think and hope that common sense will prevail where the Single Market is concerned. However, that does assume the EU behaves rationally and doesn't seek to cut its nose to spite its face which I accept could be a bit of a leap of faith.....

We won't lose access to the single market. We will simply cease to be part of the single market.

The EU is bound by the WTO treaties, it cannot restrict our access to the single market.

Goods that we sell to the EU will have an average of 4.4% duty applied. However, the pound has fallen by about 10%. So, our exports will still be 5.6% cheaper than they were on June 23rd.

Conversely, EU exports to us will be 5.6% more expensive. UK manufacturing will increase.

Sorry, badly phrased on my part! What I meant was losing all access on our current terms (and ditto them accessing our market on current terms); WTO treaties are the backstop but hopefully a more mutually convenient arrangement can be reached to the benefit of both the UK and the EU. I do worry that the EU will be prepared to cut its nose to spite its face - presumably in an effort to make an example of us and dissuade other members from trying to leave - but only time will tell on that score.

[rscott]

South American wines are usually purchased in dollars, so aren't exactly good value at the moment...
Britain doesn't have the capacity to produce enough wine to replace that imported from even one EU country though. We don't have the suitable land, let alone established vines.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be reviewing and reconsidering where we buy from post Brexit, but it's not straightforward to do that when no-one knows the basics like what duties (if any) will apply, or what changes to customs procedures might apply. It may well work out wonderfully in the future, but we simply don't know yet. No one can reliably predict it one way or the other.

[pim]

Independent nation from what?

We are not part of the Schengen agreement or in the Euro.What did or does the E.U force on us what is so against our Tindependence.

Europen nations went through two massive worldwars killing each other.

The E.U.didn't force a bedroom tax or attacks against the working poor we did that all by our own government.

We have always been a part of Europe pretending we are not is a fallacy.

Rant over.>

[rscott]

JagLover said:

rscott said:

English sparkling is good, but not that good.. Many customers also buy a product because of the name - there are many very good sparkling wines available for less than the price of a bad champagne, yet people still pay the extra.

And yes, there are plenty of Belgian style beers brewed in the UK which are very good, but they cannot replicate the taste as it depends on both the water and yeasts used.

There are many other foods & drinks we'll still have to import (olive oil, oranges, lemons) from the EU and won't be able to grow here. These will all have to increase in price without a deal.

The assumption that we can simply make/grow anything we currently import is simply not true.

We pay around 17% more for food than would otherwise be the case due to CAP. There are many significant impacts of Brexit but substituting ROW food for EU food is not going to be one of them.

and seriously we are talking about Belgium beers?. These are all first world problems. Buy a Honda/Toyota/Jaguar rather than Mercedes/Audi/BMW, holiday in the lake district rather than northern italy. Hardly ideal (unless you prefer Jaguars of course) but set against being an independent nation again it is trival and inconsequential.

So you're happy to restrict our options for purchasing and travel? Surely the best option is to keep the same level of access to EU markets?

[anonymous-user]

pim said:

Independent nation from what?

We are not part of the Schengen agreement or in the Euro.What did or does the E.U force on us what is so against our Tindependence.

Europen nations went through two massive worldwars killing each other.

The E.U.didn't force a bedroom tax or attacks against the working poor we did that all by our own government.

We have always been a part of Europe pretending we are not is a fallacy.

Rant over.>

1/10 I'm afraid

[Garvin]

JNW1 said:

. . . . . . . I do worry that the EU will be prepared to cut its nose to spite its face - presumably in an effort to make an example of us and dissuade other members from trying to leave - but only time will tell on that score.

Currently, due to the weak pound, the price of imports from the EU are rising and UK exports to the EU have the opposite issue. This may redress the balance somewhat between UK imports and exports but will not wipe out the deficit. Will the £ recover its strength by Brexit - I doubt it! Therefore, at the point of Brexit the trade imbalance will still be in favour of the EU. The EU will then further exacerbate their problem by insisting on tarrifs which will increase the difference further! Are they that monumentally stupid? Perhaps they are but I doubt it.

[JagLover]

rscott said:

So you're happy to restrict our options for purchasing and travel? Surely the best option is to keep the same level of access to EU markets?

Of course the best option is a free trade area with some form of limited bureaucracy to ensure sufficient national standards etc.

This is what we were sold in the 1970s but has never been the point of the EU which has always been "ever closer union".

Yes if we could have both a free trade area and national sovereignty over all areas that matter (including borders and welfare policy) that would be great. It is extremely unlikely to happen though so best to be realistic and it will not be me, or Brexiteers in general, restricting our options for purchasing and travel but the actions of the EU.

[sidicks]

pim said:

Independent nation from what?

We are not part of the Schengen agreement or in the Euro.What did or does the E.U force on us what is so against our Tindependence.

Europen nations went through two massive worldwars killing each other.

The E.U.didn't force a bedroom tax or attacks against the working poor we did that all by our own government.

We have always been a part of Europe pretending we are not is a fallacy.

Rant over.>

Europe and the EU are different.

HTH

[don4l]

sidicks said:

pim said:

Independent nation from what?

We are not part of the Schengen agreement or in the Euro.What did or does the E.U force on us what is so against our Tindependence.

Europen nations went through two massive worldwars killing each other.

The E.U.didn't force a bedroom tax or attacks against the working poor we did that all by our own government.

We have always been a part of Europe pretending we are not is a fallacy.

Rant over.>

Europe and the EU are different.

HTH

There is no point in trying to explain this to some people.

They really do not understand the situation.


Some of them think that we will need a visa to go on holiday to Europe.

Some of them think that Spain will stop us moving to the Costa Blanca to retire.

There are even some people who are stupid enough to believe that car manufacturing jobs will move to the EU. This isn't just stupid, it is utterly moronic. We are a nett importer of cars. Why on Earth would any company increase the cost of their cars by 20%? What sort of imbecile would be so stupid as to suggest that this might happen?

The incredibly low level of intelligence that the Remoaners are prepared to display in public is really quite shocking.

[///ajd]

jsf said:

rscott said:

So we'll suddenly start manufacturing many of the items we currently import from the rest of the EU? How will that work with DOC/AOC protected wines? Or even just regional specialities (Belgian beers, for example). We simply cannot produce equivalent products so these will continue to be imported but with a 10% duty.
It won't help exporters of these products either as they'll be 10% more expensive in their target countries because of the extra duty too.

Unless we keep the same access to the single market as we have now, many, many products will increase in price..

The EU imposed tariff rate on none EU wine is 32%. Once we are out of the EU, the EU countries better up their game or we will be consuming none EU wine.

There is a good website on how the USA looks at our distorted wine market here in the EU at http://www.wineinstitute.org/international_trade_p... which shows not only the burdensome tariff regime, but also how much the EU is subsidising the EU wine makers to improve their competitiveness, which the USA consider to be distorting the market even more than would be the case even with the WTO tariff.

We are paying far higher prices than world levels because of our membership of the EU on wine, and many regularly purchased goods such as food.

What, you mean non-EU wine - like Chilean for example - has a 32% tariff applied when imported to the EU?

[Sway]

If the EU doesn't have a free trade deal with the origin country, then yes.

Even with the pound losing strength, this is a net positive.

Pre referendum I posted a link to research which showed a significant drop in the cost of foodstuffs overall - taking into account WTO tariffs applied across the board.

Wheat/maize is similarly massively overpriced in the EU compared to RoW.