The economic consequences of Brexit

[andymadmak]

Gogoplata said:

So basically Nissan haven't made a decision, the only fact is that they've said they'll announce a decision next month.

Not quite

The decision may or may not have been made already. The announcement of the decision will be made next month.
Some in the media are asserting that the decision has indeed already been made, and that the decision is to produce in Sunderland.
We will find out next month.

In any event this will be an interesting decision..... not least because Nissan is owned by Renault, so if the decision IS to produce in Sunderland it would mean that a major French company was continuing to invest in the UK and rely on supplies of product from the UK to the EU post Brexit.

[Borghetto]

andymadmak said:

Not quite

The decision may or may not have been made already. The announcement of the decision will be made next month.
Some in the media are asserting that the decision has indeed already been made, and that the decision is to produce in Sunderland.
We will find out next month.

In any event this will be an interesting decision..... not least because Nissan is owned by Renault, so if the decision IS to produce in Sunderland it would mean that a major French company was continuing to invest in the UK and rely on supplies of product from the UK to the EU post Brexit.

I seem to remember reading that the Sunderland plant was Nissan's most efficient plant' and Sterling has dropped - why on earth would you shut it?

[andymadmak]

Borghetto said:

andymadmak said:

Not quite

The decision may or may not have been made already. The announcement of the decision will be made next month.
Some in the media are asserting that the decision has indeed already been made, and that the decision is to produce in Sunderland.
We will find out next month.

In any event this will be an interesting decision..... not least because Nissan is owned by Renault, so if the decision IS to produce in Sunderland it would mean that a major French company was continuing to invest in the UK and rely on supplies of product from the UK to the EU post Brexit.

I seem to remember reading that the Sunderland plant was Nissan's most efficient plant' and Sterling has dropped - why on earth would you shut it?

Well, if I follow remainer logic, they will close it because Brexit, and to teach the UK a lesson and because they have to protect the EU, and because everyone is a racist and because the falling pound makes the vehicles that are exported more profitable at the moment (- oh, er hang on I may have got that last one round my neck.... ) ..... but anyway, you clearly don't understand. Closing Sunderland is the ONLY way to save the EU. To deny that is to prove you are a bigot and a Brexiturd.*

• Brexiturd is a new descriptor that I have noticed the delightful Mr Jawknee using on other threads.

[anonymous-user]

andymadmak said:

Well, if I follow remainer logic, they will close it because Brexit, and to teach the UK a lesson and because they have to protect the EU, and because everyone is a racist and because the falling pound makes the vehicles that are exported more profitable at the moment (- oh, er hang on I may have got that last one round my neck.... ) ..... but anyway, you clearly don't understand. Closing Sunderland is the ONLY way to save the EU. To deny that is to prove you are a bigot and a Brexiturd.*

• Brexiturd is a new descriptor that I have noticed the delightful Mr Jawknee using on other threads.

Great post. Summarised it extremely well!

[Trabi601]

I'm pretty sure Nissan wouldn't make a knee-jerk reaction based on such a recent referendum. What will be much more indicative is where the replacement for the new model will be built.

[don'tbesilly]

///ajd said:

don'tbesilly said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

don'tbesilly said:

I do understand the difference thanks.

When both Cameron and Osborne, and then Gove/others spelt out prior to the referendum that leaving the EU meant relinquishing membership of the Single market, I and I'd imagine millions of voters who were considering the options,consequences and responsibilities of their vote looked into what leaving the single market meant and voted accordingly, either to stay in the EU or leave the EU, some of course didn't do any of the above.

I'm sure some who voted to leave might now be questioning their vote, others who voted remain will perhaps also be doing the same.
It makes for a good discussion for those who made it to the polling booth because they valued the future of the UK either in the EU or out of the EU which the UK will now be.

Back to that bigotry I see huh.

You need to grow up.

Can you point out the bigotry in my post please?

Its not the first time the phrase in bold has been highlighted. More subtle now but it used to be a clear call for him to not join in.

Several here repeatedly use this against PM and the clear inference above is that he should not join the discussion, and helis opinion should be dismissed.

This is bigotry as you are intolerant of him joining the debate - otherwise why keep making the same point?

He doesn't have to apologise at all, his use of the phrase is correct, unlike some other ignorant attempts to use it as an insult.

Perhaps you should have read my response to PM's accusations of bigotry (as below) before getting involved in things that have nothing whatsoever to do with you.

don'tbesilly said:

I did neither.

I mentioned membership of the single market, and I drew attention to three groups of people.

Group One - Voted to leave the EU.
Group Two - Voted to remain in the EU
Group Three - Didn't vote.

The statistics of all three groups are what are generally focussed on when discussing the referendum, I don't see why mentioning it is any way bigoted?

There was no bigotry in my post whatsoever, nor have I ever stated PM was not entitled to an opinion.

I never asked for an apology, nor expect one, despite him being clearly wrong, and the use of the word being demonstrably wrong.

Kindly mind your own business.

[Cobnapint]

mike9009 said:

I thought the whole premise of the referendum was to leave the EU? Which by definition meant Brexiters were voting to

1. Remove freedom of movement
2. Leave the freedom of trade within the EU
3. Leave the EU regulations

Are some Brexiters suggesting they would like to keep the freedom of trade, that they voted against some four months ago?

AJD would like to think that, but no. Brexit and all it brings is still the way to go. Warts, cupcakes and all.

[don'tbesilly]

Trabi601 said:

I'm pretty sure Nissan wouldn't make a knee-jerk reaction based on such a recent referendum. What will be much more indicative is where the replacement for the new model will be built.

Keep up Trabi

14th October:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-37656480

After the meeting, which lasted about an hour, Mr Ghosn said: "We want to ensure that this high-performing, high-employment factory remains competitive globally and continues to deliver for our business and for Britain.
"Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business. I look forward to continued positive collaboration between Nissan and the UK Government."
Mrs May added: "This government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future."

Today:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-relief...

Speculation admittedly, but more than likely following the meeting of the 14th Oct.

[Trabi601]

Product planning takes years - you don't just decide at such a late stage, after such a recent referendum, that you'll keep your hundreds of millions of pounds worth of factory running for a new model.

Decisions to close factories and move production to another country happen over many years - so I think it's very wrong for anyone, on either side of the debate, to say that the Nissan decision was in any way influenced by the referendum.

[Cobnapint]

nosmallfiat said:

If we do end up significantly weaker post Brexit the blame should lie with those who gave away more and more of our freedom to the EU without a further public vote rather than Theresa May who is in an impossible position.

Yep.

[MG CHRIS]

Trabi601 said:

Product planning takes years - you don't just decide at such a late stage, after such a recent referendum, that you'll keep your hundreds of millions of pounds worth of factory running for a new model.

Decisions to close factories and move production to another country happen over many years - so I think it's very wrong for anyone, on either side of the debate, to say that the Nissan decision was in any way influenced by the referendum.

Or it could be that Nissan is happy with the sunderland plant and the high production rates 3rd highest in Europe btw and with lower pound meaning better for exporting its a win win for Nissan.

As for closing factories may want to have a word with the effected work force from the last ford car line making the transit see how they like the way the eu basically sold it to turkey through huge sums of money.

[don'tbesilly]

Trabi601 said:

Product planning takes years - you don't just decide at such a late stage, after such a recent referendum, that you'll keep your hundreds of millions of pounds worth of factory running for a new model.

Decisions to close factories and move production to another country happen over many years - so I think it's very wrong for anyone, on either side of the debate, to say that the Nissan decision was in any way influenced by the referendum.

Are you suggesting you know more than Carlos Ghosn Chairman and CEO of France-based Renault, and Chairman and CEO of Japan-based Nissan, or are you suggesting that Ghosn has been taking the piss out of the UK for quite some considerable time?

Which choice are you calling?

[Trabi601]

don'tbesilly said:

Are you suggesting you know more than Carlos Ghosn Chairman and CEO of France-based Renault, and Chairman and CEO of Japan-based Nissan, or are you suggesting that Ghosn has been taking the piss out of the UK for quite some considerable time?

Which choice are you calling?

I'm suggesting the Brexit vote will have had no bearing on this one at all, as you don't make decisions as significant as this based on something that was in the balance just a couple of months ago!

What is happening in their longer term plans has yet to be revealed.

The politicians and Nissan spokesmen can spin it any way they want, but there's no way this will have been Brexit influenced.

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

jjlynn27 said:

sidicks said:

You keep forgetting where the majority of the money comes from!

How much did Slovakia contribute to the EU budget...?

You keep making demonstrably false statements, only you know why.

How many net contributors are there to the EU budget? I should have said a significant proportion comes form the Uk.

You constantly make false statements relying on echo-chamber of NP&E. It's nothing new. Only you know why.

sidicks said:

jjlynn27 said:

It's totally irrelevant where the money came from. That factory was the most expensive plant within PSA group. It would still be the most expensive plant, even with necessary investment to produce new model.

Loan from EIB was not conditioned by 'contribution to EU budget'. Where did majority of money come from for loan of E450m to Southampton in 2010?

Totally irrelevant? If the UK is providing a significant amount of the funding, wouldn't this be better spent on supporting our own businesses?

Yes, totally irrelevant. Money was not spent. It was the loan. The loan was repaid. The same way that Southampton loan was repaid.

sidicsk said:

jjlynn27 said:

Not economically viable, not sure which part is confusing you. No, it wouldn't be 'because of massive economic discrepanciesi in different countriees within the EU'. Turkey is not in the EU. Southampton was doomed as soon as Ford started producing transits in Turkey. If anything it was kept alive by cheap loans from EIB over the years.

Why are costs so much higher in the UK?

Once again, irrelevant. Why is this so hard for you to understand?

sidicks said:

jjlynn27 said:

Companies move production around all the time. It's not a very hard concept to grasp[/b]. Kuicely was producing 170-180k pa significantly cheaper than Southampton. It's really that simple.

And yet people like you have made a massive thing about positioning any current proposal to move location as solely due to Brexit...

People like me? Is the banks association bloke 'people like me'? Or is he the part of the dreaded 'Project Fear'?

You don't have to tell anyone else, but ask yourself why do you have this constant need to make demonstrably false statements.

Your '...' are adorable as ever.

[don4l]

Trabi601 said:

I'm suggesting the Brexit vote will have had no bearing on this one at all, as you don't make decisions as significant as this based on something that was in the balance just a couple of months ago!

What is happening in their longer term plans has yet to be revealed.

The politicians and Nissan spokesmen can spin it any way they want, but there's no way this will have been Brexit influenced.

What nonsense.

Renault and Nissan will have considered the implications of a successful Brexit vote long before the referendum took placee. In fact, Ghosn spoke about it several times in January and February.

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

You constantly make false statements relying on echo-chamber of NP&E. It's nothing new. Only you know why.

One again you avoid the question posed to you and once again you make a claim without evidence. So dull.

jjlynn27 said:

Once again, irrelevant. Why is this so hard for you to understand?

Maybe irrelevant to you (or perhaps just inconvenient?
Regardless, once again you avoid the question - again.

jjlynn27 said:

People like me? Is the banks association bloke 'people like me'? Or is he the part of the dreaded 'Project Fear'?

Yes, people like you - perhaps you've forgotten the numerous posts by you and people like you in the last 4 months?
The Bank Association bloke is doing what he's paid for and putting pressure on to support his industry. No surprise there.

jjlynn27 said:

You don't have to tell anyone else, but ask yourself why do you have this constant need to make demonstrably false statements.

You don't have to respond, but you might like to ask yourself why you cant ever back up anything you claim?

[Trabi601]

don4l said:

What nonsense.

Renault and Nissan will have considered the implications of a successful Brexit vote long before the referendum took placee. In fact, Ghosn spoke about it several times in January and February.

When everyone was predicting a landslide for remain, you mean?

The Brexit influenced decision will come when they're planning the next model cycle. Probably once we really know how the Brexit vote has panned out.

As we haven't even issued our notice, it's far too early for anyone to be making decisions based on the referendum result.

[jjlynn27]

JagLover said:

jjlynn27 said:

JagLover said:

Mark Carney is almost certainly one of the worst central bankers we have ever had.

The supply of money was already surging (growing 14.7% in the three months to end July'16) and the pound was under pressure BEFORE he then cut interest rates by a further 1/4 percent and increased quantitative easing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/12/why...

I think we are in a very dangerous situation and one in which some are deliberately trying to engineering stagflation in one last desperate attempt to reverse the referendum decision.

He being? I was under impression that interest rates are decided by MPC.

Fair point to some extent but allot depends on the makeup of the MPC and the guidance they are being given by the BOE.

....

It's not 'Fair point to some extent'. You were demonstrably, 100% wrong.

There are nine people on MPC and all of them voted to reduce rates. All of them infinitely more qualified for the job than you are. To suggest that all of them, if that's what you are suggesting, are desperate to reverse referendum decision is beyond stupid. Not surprising, but downright stupid.

[don4l]

jjlynn27 said:

It's not 'Fair point to some extent'. You were demonstrably, 100% wrong.

There are nine people on MPC and all of them voted to reduce rates. All of them infinitely more qualified for the job than you are. To suggest that all of them, if that's what you are suggesting, are desperate to reverse referendum decision is beyond stupid. Not surprising, but downright stupid.

I think that they were guided by that idiot, Carney.

Throughout history, when the Pound lost value, the resposnse was to increase rates. This time, they did the opposite.

Very odd.

[jjlynn27]

sidicks said:

You don't have to respond, but you might like to ask yourself why you cant ever back up anything you claim?

Another demonstrably false statement. Everything was backed up with figures and dates. I do understand that you need things repeated to you few times in order to get them, but I'm sure that you are able to use 'back' button. It's not that hard. It's actually almost as easy as is to understand the difference between 'spent' and 'loaned and repaid' monies.