The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
don'tbesilly said:
///ajd said:
Really? Time to go, the opposing view, and how he got it so wrong and continues to do so:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/time-gloomy-m...
He might look the part and sound a right clever dick, but when his words and decisions are back checked - things aren't so complementary.
The recent slash of interest rates to 0.25% was a totally flawed kneejerk reaction to something that hadn't actually happened.
All it's done is help keep house prices unnecessarily high, reduced returns on savings even further and narrowed his room for manoeuvre should the s
t really hit the fan.///ajd said:
Murph7355 said:
///ajd said:
Very poorly written article linking to a poorly written article.No mention of the timing correlation between events, attacking the person not what he's saying etc.
If this is all you read, it explain a lot.
Actually listening to what they say, I'd trust JR-M every time over Carney. (I'll give you Gove though. Grade A knob jockey).
On the morning of the vote he looked entirely gormless (wearing a oh fck what have we done expression), followed by an excruciatingly misjudged stab in the back of boris whilst simultaneously torpedoing his own chances of being PM. This was obvious to everyone except himself until he had completely humiliated himself. He would be better advised to crawl under a rock than come out attacking one of the few individuals that acted with any dignity during the whole omnishambles.
Interest rates came down, mortgage rates stayed stable, no recession, and the likelihood of such has been downplayed and employment has stayed relatively stable.
You mention a rock, there are other people who would be better advised to find one and disappear under it, they really wouldn't be missed.
230TE said:
I reckon ///ajd is only a couple of Independent links off breaching PH's "no advertising" policy. If the Indie isn't paying him for his efforts, it certainly should.
I started ignoring ajd a few weeks ago.He responded by ignoring me.
I have to say, I like the current situation.
The quality of conversation would rise enormously if everybody just ignored the troll.
Trolls thrive on feedback. If you ignore them they go away.
Borghetto said:
Why?
I'm suspecting you've never imported or exported anything.The nissans aren't made up of just uk made components, they come from all over europe and possibly further afield. All components enter the UK without any paperwork. Similarly the assembled vehicles leave the UK for European destinations without any paperwork involved whatsoever (I think some may go further afield but that's not the point)
If Nissan have to "export" the cars and "import" items and pay the associated costs, that increases the time to export and decreases efficiency. Similar effects with importing goods, moreso with the Just in time system they are no doubt operating.
This is an extremely fundamental concept that most of the leave brigade probably don't know about.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 20:54
don4l said:
230TE said:
I reckon ///ajd is only a couple of Independent links off breaching PH's "no advertising" policy. If the Indie isn't paying him for his efforts, it certainly should.
I started ignoring ajd a few weeks ago.He responded by ignoring me.
I have to say, I like the current situation.
The quality of conversation would rise enormously if everybody just ignored the troll.
Trolls thrive on feedback. If you ignore them they go away.
jamoor said:
I'm suspecting you've never imported or exported anything.
This is an extremely fundamental concept that most of the leave brigade probably don't know about.
Yes you're right, I wanted to work for the local authority but didn't have the aptitude. Instead I went into business and set up and ran a UK quoted company. I was Director of another quoted company with sales over <£50m in the electronics business which imported most of its components from outside the eu. I am currently a Director of a US company and its Polish subsidiary. But I bow to your superior knowledge, after all what would I know; I'm just a bigoted, racist who wants the UK to succeed outside the eu. If we'd stayed in I'd, have wanted us to succeed inside. This is an extremely fundamental concept that most of the leave brigade probably don't know about.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 20:54
Borghetto said:
jamoor said:
Borghetto said:
I seem to remember reading that the Sunderland plant was Nissan's most efficient plant' and Sterling has dropped - why on earth would you shut it?
Well it will become alot less efficient if they aren't part of the single market that's for sure.jamoor said:
Borghetto said:
Why?
I'm suspecting you've never imported or exported anything.The nissans aren't made up of just uk made components, they come from all over europe and possibly further afield. All components enter the UK without any paperwork. Similarly the assembled vehicles leave the UK for European destinations without any paperwork involved whatsoever (I think some may go further afield but that's not the point)
If Nissan have to "export" the cars and "import" items and pay the associated costs, that increases the time to export and decreases efficiency. Similar effects with importing goods, moreso with the Just in time system they are no doubt operating.
This is an extremely fundamental concept that most of the leave brigade probably don't know about.
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 20:54
The point is that the cost of the paperwork is really rather minute compared to the value of the goods in the shipment - that's especially true for high value goods but it really isn't an issue for lower value shipments either.
jamoor said:
... Similarly the assembled vehicles leave the UK for European destinations without any paperwork involved whatsoever (I think some may go further afield but that's not the point)...
You can prove this? As frankly it sounds like absolute bull st to me.So a brand new off the production line motor vehicle leaves the factory "without any paperwork involve whatsoever"?
Judging by the amount of s
te paperwork I get when I order something relatively low cost and simplistic from an EU/UK supplier on something like Amazon I very, very much doubt it.You may, of course, be referring specifically to HMRC (and foreign equivalent) export/import papers. But the incremental costs of these, as has been pointed out, are not material. Especially not for cars.
Murph7355 said:
jamoor said:
... Similarly the assembled vehicles leave the UK for European destinations without any paperwork involved whatsoever (I think some may go further afield but that's not the point)...
You can prove this? As frankly it sounds like absolute bull st to me.So a brand new off the production line motor vehicle leaves the factory "without any paperwork involve whatsoever"?
Judging by the amount of s
te paperwork I get when I order something relatively low cost and simplistic from an EU/UK supplier on something like Amazon I very, very much doubt it.You may, of course, be referring specifically to HMRC (and foreign equivalent) export/import papers. But the incremental costs of these, as has been pointed out, are not material. Especially not for cars.
Cars are an interesting one because all of the paperwork would be handled at type approval stage rather than per shipment, so if we take Norway as an example, all that's required to travel with the shipment is the aforementioned packing list, an invoice to show the value of the goods, an EUR1 form (costing £30, or free if you have gained approved exporter status from HMRC), and a copy of the type approval document.
If you don't believe me check out the EU Market Access Database:
madb.europa.eu
click on "Procedures and Formalities", select Norway and type in tariff code 8703 for motor cars, and look at the specific documentary requirements in the right hand column.
Murph7355 said:
You can prove this? As frankly it sounds like absolute bull st to me.
So a brand new off the production line motor vehicle leaves the factory "without any paperwork involve whatsoever"?
Judging by the amount of ste paperwork I get when I order something relatively low cost and simplistic from an EU/UK supplier on something like Amazon I very, very much doubt it.
You may, of course, be referring specifically to HMRC (and foreign equivalent) export/import papers. But the incremental costs of these, as has been pointed out, are not material. Especially not for cars.
A brand new production vehicle can be put on a trailer and taken to anywhere in the EU with no interference. This is how free markets work, goods and labour flow throughout the market with no barriers to trade.t to me.So a brand new off the production line motor vehicle leaves the factory "without any paperwork involve whatsoever"?
Judging by the amount of s
te paperwork I get when I order something relatively low cost and simplistic from an EU/UK supplier on something like Amazon I very, very much doubt it.You may, of course, be referring specifically to HMRC (and foreign equivalent) export/import papers. But the incremental costs of these, as has been pointed out, are not material. Especially not for cars.
If it needs to be Exported into the EU from the UK they will want to know the value of the goods with evidence and collect any duties and VAT that's due on the goods.
Maybe you can read about it in this link.
https://www.gov.uk/starting-to-import/importing-fr...
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 23:43
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 23:48
davepoth said:
As part of my job I've been investigating the extra costs we'll face for importing and exporting. The only cost we've so far determined is that levied by our provider for sending declarations to HMRC (all invoicing and other paperwork is generated automatically for all shipments, export or otherwise). The cost of that export declaration is 50p per declaration. Now that declaration could be for a single 1kg parcel, but it can also be for an entire RoRo ship full of Qashqais. Import declarations are at the same cost.
The point is that the cost of the paperwork is really rather minute compared to the value of the goods in the shipment - that's especially true for high value goods but it really isn't an issue for lower value shipments either.
Well, we aren't talking about HMRC we are talking about goods trying to enter the EU from the UK.The point is that the cost of the paperwork is really rather minute compared to the value of the goods in the shipment - that's especially true for high value goods but it really isn't an issue for lower value shipments either.
Duties and/or Sales Taxes may need to be paid and the goods could be liable for inspection at the point of entry/exit.
Have you ever had a container scanned and the contents scrutinised when coming in from outside the EU?
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 23:44
Borghetto said:
Yes you're right, I wanted to work for the local authority but didn't have the aptitude. Instead I went into business and set up and ran a UK quoted company. I was Director of another quoted company with sales over <£50m in the electronics business which imported most of its components from outside the eu. I am currently a Director of a US company and its Polish subsidiary. But I bow to your superior knowledge, after all what would I know; I'm just a bigoted, racist who wants the UK to succeed outside the eu. If we'd stayed in I'd, have wanted us to succeed inside.
Well in that case your statement has just confused me further, who hired you if you can't understand these basic concepts.Fake it till you make it!
jamoor said:
davepoth said:
As part of my job I've been investigating the extra costs we'll face for importing and exporting. The only cost we've so far determined is that levied by our provider for sending declarations to HMRC (all invoicing and other paperwork is generated automatically for all shipments, export or otherwise). The cost of that export declaration is 50p per declaration. Now that declaration could be for a single 1kg parcel, but it can also be for an entire RoRo ship full of Qashqais. Import declarations are at the same cost.
The point is that the cost of the paperwork is really rather minute compared to the value of the goods in the shipment - that's especially true for high value goods but it really isn't an issue for lower value shipments either.
Well, we aren't talking about HMRC we are talking about goods trying to enter the EU from the UK.The point is that the cost of the paperwork is really rather minute compared to the value of the goods in the shipment - that's especially true for high value goods but it really isn't an issue for lower value shipments either.
Duties and/or Sales Taxes may need to be paid and the goods could be liable for inspection at the point of entry/exit.
Have you ever had a container scanned and the contents scrutinised when coming in from outside the EU?
Edited by jamoor on Sunday 23 October 23:44
Do you know what the C in HMRC stands for? Customs. the people who look after duties and sales taxes on import, and are responsible for ensuring that you retain good records for goods being exported so you don't have to pay sales tax on them.
I have had many containers scrutinised when coming in from outside the EU, but I have had a thousand times more shipments be waved through without being stopped.
As i've mentioned to you a couple of times now, this is my job. I do it every day, and I do have a fairly good handle on the import and export process - that's the case for a lot of other people on this thread who are patiently trying to explain it to you.
davepoth said:
but we were, and you specifically asked how much more expensive the paperwork would be after Brexit, which I explained quite well. You ignored that it seemed.
Well no, not really.You only explained half the side, and then used Norway as an example (which also happens to be in the free market so is a moot point)
How about when goods are exported from the UK and into the EU if we aren't part of the single market?
What procedures are involved when goods arrive into an EU port from goods from outside the single market? Is there additional time required to clear customs?
These are all potential issues companies may face before we get to the point of goods coming in to be processed and then re-exported and the duties payable, and time taken.
Maybe this will help you understand better.
https://www.ft.com/content/c397f174-9205-11e6-a72e...
Edited by jamoor on Monday 24th October 00:12
jamoor said:
Well no, not really.
You only explained half the side, and then used Norway as an example (which also happens to be in the free market so is a moot point)
How about when goods are exported from the UK and into the EU if we aren't part of the single market?
What procedures are involved when goods arrive into an EU port from goods from outside the single market?
Norway requires export paperwork as it is not part of the European Union. It's a perfectly valid example but we can always look at some more.You only explained half the side, and then used Norway as an example (which also happens to be in the free market so is a moot point)
How about when goods are exported from the UK and into the EU if we aren't part of the single market?
What procedures are involved when goods arrive into an EU port from goods from outside the single market?
If you like, you can use the EU market access database to explore what paperwork is required for export to other countries.
madb.europa.eu
Belize for example does not even require type approval documentation, so that would be much easier than exporting to the EU. Vietnam requires a letter from the exporter proving that the importer is an approved distributor, but again doesn't require type approval.
For goods arriving in the EU the requirements are the same as Norway's requirements, since it's in the single market. So all that's really required is the type approval.
any other questions?
davepoth said:
Norway requires export paperwork as it is not part of the European Union. It's a perfectly valid example but we can always look at some more.
If you like, you can use the EU market access database to explore what paperwork is required for export to other countries.
madb.europa.eu
Belize for example does not even require type approval documentation, so that would be much easier than exporting to the EU. Vietnam requires a letter from the exporter proving that the importer is an approved distributor, but again doesn't require type approval.
For goods arriving in the EU the requirements are the same as Norway's requirements, since it's in the single market. So all that's really required is the type approval.
any other questions?
Yes,If you like, you can use the EU market access database to explore what paperwork is required for export to other countries.
madb.europa.eu
Belize for example does not even require type approval documentation, so that would be much easier than exporting to the EU. Vietnam requires a letter from the exporter proving that the importer is an approved distributor, but again doesn't require type approval.
For goods arriving in the EU the requirements are the same as Norway's requirements, since it's in the single market. So all that's really required is the type approval.
any other questions?
How long will it take to get a car cleared through customs in say, Vietnam or Belize once it hits the dock if the vehicle was exported from the UK.
How long will it take a car to get cleared through Dutch customs in say, Zeebrugge once it hits the dock if the ship and vehicle came in from Hull?
Do you think both will take the same amount of time?
Edited by jamoor on Monday 24th October 00:33
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